Politics

[spike.t]

‘You are all worse than each other’: anti-regime Iranians turn on Trump

Mood among some in Iran shifts from hope of being rescued to dismay at destruction of infrastructure, culture and lives

www.theguardian.com

 

[KJE81]

Global insurance market for tankers is one of the big issues here.. Mean what you want about Clinton, but his analysis is towering above the incoherent babble Trump delivers..

Unfortunately it does not seem to matter whatever Trump says or do, the MAGA-base loves him anyway...

 

[mdwest]

Didn't we have a discussion about acronyms a few pages back?

I spelled out FID a couple of posts earlier

Foreign Internal Defense

In lay terms - sending guys into a country to train host nationals how to fight against an insurgency

Unconventional Warfare is similar, but has layers of difference - sending guys into a country to train host nationals (and potentially others) to become an insurgency

As an example… late 2001… 5th Special Forces sent teams covertly into Afghanistan to arm, train, and help lead the Northern Alliance against the Taliban government. They were there before conventional troops arrived, operating alone, etc… the movie “12 Strong” is about one of those teams… this is UW…

By 2002 the US had displaced the Taliban and installed the Karzai government… Afghanistan needed a military and police force to secure the country against insurgents, remnants of the Taliban, and jihadists coming in from abroad… so Special Forces transitioned teams to FID… and started teaching Afghans essentially how to be an army..

Army Special Forces (Green Berets) are the primary force the US uses for these two missions, although other SOF units have some capability to do them as well. This is because FID and UW are core mission sets for SF where they are largely seen as ancillary for SEALs, MARSOC, etc.. and SF units are responsible for specific regions of the world where MARSOC is a global force… so for example, 10th Group is assigned to Europe as its area of operations.. so guys assigned to 10th Group will learn European languages (mostly Russian, German, etc) and will study European culture, religion, common courtesies and customs, etc and will get regularly stationed in Europe during their careers… 7th Group is Latin America.. so those guys learn Spanish and Portuguese and a few other languages spoken in the Caribbean, etc.. they study Latin American cultures, religion, customs, etc… 3rd gets Africa, 5th gets the Middle East, North Africa, and some of SW Asia… 1st gets Asia-Pacific… then 19th and 20th (National Guard Special Forces)are broken up and aligned with the different active duty groups)..

While some MARSOC or SEAL or USAF SOF might know foreign languages or have some cultural training, etc.. it’s not commonplace.. for SF it’s mandatory.. which puts FID and UW right in the SF wheelhouse…and something of an extra task for the others…

 

[mdwest]

Well oil prices aren't going to come down in response to this, Kharg Island has been bombed. That said, Trump says the oil infrastructure was not hit.

Trump says US ‘obliterated’ military targets in strike on key Iranian oil hub: 'Powerful bombing raids'

President Trump said the U.S. bombed Iran’s Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, and warned against interference in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.foxnews.com

My guess is this is where that Marine MEU will go once they reach theater.

The Iranians have no air power left and no navy left so they can’t readily deploy troops to Kharg to defend it. What’s there is pretty much all that’s going to be there… and we’ll spend the next several days killing as many as possible and not letting what remains get any sleep or rest or nourishment for days on end…

Then deploy the MEU, take the island, and “own” the most critical piece of Iranian oil infrastructure…

And then let the Iranians decide if they want it back (start negotiating reasonably for peace), or if they want to destroy it themselves with drones and missiles (which would be incredibly stupid if they they they will retain power after the conflict as it would absolutely destroy their own economy for years)…

Kharg isn’t big… once all the military forces on the island are wiped out, it wouldn’t take a whole lot of effort to take it and then control it… and taking small islands by force is something Marines are exceptional at..

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

No regime change may spell major global economic setback..unless passage of Hormuz is secured..

One fifth of the global oil consumption (20 million barrels) is trafficked through Hormuz on a regular day..

So the war is over and much to your delight it's been a failure as you define it and the Ayatollah's remain in power, you're saying that Iran will continue to cut it's own throat by not allowing oil to pass thru the strait? Try again.

 

[KJE81]

My guess is this is where that Marine MEU will go once they reach theater.

The Iranians have no air power left and no navy left so they can’t readily deploy troops to Kharg to defend it. What’s there is pretty much all that’s going to be there… and we’ll spend the next several days killing as many as possible and not letting what remains get any sleep or rest or nourishment for days on end…

Then deploy the MEU, take the island, and “own” the most critical piece of Iranian oil infrastructure…

And then let the Iranians decide if they want it back (start negotiating reasonably for peace), or if they want to destroy it themselves with drones and missiles (which would be incredibly stupid if they they they will retain power after the conflict as it would absolutely destroy their own economy for years)…

Kharg isn’t big… once all the military forces on the island are wiped out, it wouldn’t take a whole lot of effort to take it and then control it… and taking small islands by force is something Marines are exceptional at..

Wonder if they will risk taking the USS Tripoli through the straits, it seems like the navy keep the regular carrier(s) far away from the straits?

 

[Pondoro]

I have no delight in this Phil..however it plays out... But in the eyes of the rest of the world Israel & USA own this war..

Do you really think this crisis is over..??

Did you ever listen to Clinton..saying that the Clinton-Obama-Biden administrations considered military action against Iran, but found it wise not to engage in a war with them...mainly because of trouble with the crude flow..??

Yet here we are.. Iran will do whatever they can to make the oil price soar..

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

My guess is this is where that Marine MEU will go once they reach theater.

Then deploy the MEU, take the island, and “own” the most critical piece of Iranian oil infrastructure…

That's what I've thought since learning the 31 MEU underway to this area of hostilities.

Kharg isn’t big… once all the military forces on the island are wiped out, it wouldn’t take a whole lot of effort to take it and then control it… and taking small islands by force is something Marines are exceptional at..

Gunboat Diplomacy has worked since at least when Teddy Roosevelt was President!

 

[Pondoro]

Well..if Gunboat Diplomacy still works, why haven´t you started escorting tankers..? Where is the US Navy..?

The Arleigh Burk destroyers are bristling with ordnance..

Will you escort tankers or are you leaving that to the french navy..?

 

[skydiver386]

Taking Iran's weapons and money away while leaving the Regime intact and thinking you've solved the problem is akin to taking Jeffery Dahmer's knife and fork away and thinking you've solved the problem.

 

[KJE81]

Well..if Gunboat Diplomacy still works, why haven´t you started escorting tankers..? Where is the US Navy..?

The Arleigh Burk destroyers are bristling with ordnance..

Will you escort tankers or are you leaving that to the french navy..?

It might be due to the interceptor shortage: https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-pushes-ceasefire-iranian-massive-damage

The U.S. has withdrawn interceptors and full missile defence systems from across the world, including strategically located Patriot and THAAD systems from South Korea, for redeployment to the Middle East, with these withdrawals escalating following the first days of hostilities. The U.S. began the war with its interceptor arsenals already severely depleted, with approximately 600 interceptors for THAAD systems having been in service in the at the beginning of 2025, of which over 150 were expended during under 12 days of hostilities with Iran in June 2025. Supplies of missiles for Patriot systems were reported in July 2025 to have fallen to just 25 percent of the volume deemed necessary by the Pentagon. Sources cited by CBS News have reported that although the U.S. is aware that several Arab Gulf states are facing severe shortages of anti-ballistic missiles, few steps have been taken to solve this problem. Sources cited by Middle East Eye noted that the U.S. has been refusing requests from some Gulf countries to supply weapons and ammunition to repel Iranian attacks. Considering the importance of U.S. strategic ties with Gulf states, it is likely that this reflects extreme shortages and the prioritisation of existing interceptors for the defence of U.S. and Israeli positions.

With Dwindling Interceptors and Degraded Radar, Israel and the U.S. Enter Uncharted Territory - Left Voice

The U.S.-Israeli missile-defense system is deteriorating under relentless Iranian missile barrages and targeted attacks on the radars that underpin the system. Confronted with this unprecedented challenge to U.S. military dominance, along with a teetering domestic economy, how will Trump sustain...

www.leftvoice.org

https://www.economist.com/international/2026/03/13/gulf-states-are-burning-through-interceptors

The Depleting Missile Defense Interceptor Inventory

The proliferation of missile threats has made air and missile defense interceptors the table stakes for entry into future conflicts, forcing the Department of Defense to either ante up and buy the necessary interceptors, or fold on its regional interests and bear the consequences.

www.csis.org

 

[mdwest]

Wonder if they will risk taking the USS Tripoli through the straits, it seems like the navy keep the regular carrier(s) far away from the straits?

They don’t have to…

The Tripoli has both long range helos and V22 Ospreys…

The osprey has a combat radius of 600 miles, and it s capable of inflight refueling…

The Tripoli only has to get within 500 miles…

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

Wonder if they will risk taking the USS Tripoli through the straits, it seems like the navy keep the regular carrier(s) far away from the straits?

This ship in the namesake for not only my ship, USS Tripoli LPH-10, long since retired, but of the first time the US flag flew over occupied foreign soil.

The current USS Trilopi LHA-10 is a "Grey Water Navy" Landing Helicopter Assault ship. Focus on assault! She is sailed by a crew of 1100+ sailors and a complement of 1700+ Marines. "Marines run to the sound of the guns", i.e. assault!

USS Tripoli (LHA-7) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Tripoli is the third U.S. Navy ship named for the Battle of Derne in 1805. It was the decisive victory of a mercenary army led by a detachment of United States Marines and soldiers against the forces of Tripoli during the First Barbary War. It was the first recorded land battle of the United States fought overseas."

As @mdwest and @SaintPanzer explained in earlier posts, a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a Combined Arms force that we call a Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF). Any MAGTF is under Navy command until the high water mark on the beach, where the senior Marine takes charge.

Having ground, air, logistics support, and command and control under one commander solves a lot of problems. A Navy Captain one told me, "I like you Marines. In the Navy we have suface, subsurface, and aviation all trying to be in charge. Whenever I've been near Marines, the senior Marine is ALWAYS in charge!"

What seems like yesterday my Corps retired it tanks for a 1930's theme "island hopping" equipment suite. This includes Long Range Fires that small detachments of Marines will occupy islands with anti-ship missile launching capabilities. Most thought these were destined for the South China Sea but what do you know, they will be just dandy in the Persian Gulf.

USMC Long Range Fires Launcher​

In closing, during Desert Storm, I was aboard ship as part of the 5th Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB). I observed the infantry commanders getting their Marines ready for the amphibious assault of Kuwait. Over a couple weeks, those young Devil Dogs transitioned from highly disciplined tough guys to ravenous dogs ready to kill. This is a big part of why gunboat diplomacy works. Marines!

Those hard charging infantrymen have confidence in part because they have fellow Marines providing logistic support, air support (bombs on target), air defense (no enemy air to kill them), and most important, US Navy Hospital Corpsmen imbedded at the platoon level. In the Navy, the "rating (MOS)" that has been awarded the most by a long shot Medals of Honor are the Corpsmen.

God help whoever opposes the 31st MEU

 

[Betterinthebush]

or if they want to destroy it themselves with drones and missiles (which would be incredibly stupid if they they they will retain power after the conflict as it would absolutely destroy their own economy for years)…

I’ll take “Galacticaly stupid and unexplainable things that desperate regimes do during their death spasms” for $500, Alex.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

Well..if Gunboat Diplomacy still works, why haven´t you started escorting tankers..? Where is the US Navy..?

The Arleigh Burk destroyers are bristling with ordnance..

Will you escort tankers or are you leaving that to the french navy..?

Perhaps because the US military is not stupid. We value the lives of our service men and women as much as we value our own. We, the USA will cross the line of demarcation when we are ready. If until then you have to pay a few more Norwegian Krone for petrol, that's the price of freedom.

It's so easy to criticize when one isn't doing. Post WWII the USA has led to way for free trade worldwide at our expense. For 47 years, Iran has been at war with the USA. It appears we are finally acknowledging that and are going to eliminate the pest. Lead follow or get out of our way!

As for France, my people left France long ago for a better life and freedom in the new world. If the Frenchmen of today want to saddle up and do their duty for world freedom, I’ll be proud of them. Perhaps some other countries will join the fight against those 7th century thugs.

 

[mdwest]

I have no delight in this Phil..however it plays out... But in the eyes of the rest of the world Israel & USA own this war..

Do you really think this crisis is over..??

Did you ever listen to Clinton..saying that the Clinton-Obama-Biden administrations considered military action against Iran, but found it wise not to engage in a war with them...mainly because of trouble with the crude flow..??

Yet here we are.. Iran will do whatever they can to make the oil price soar..

The US and Israel 100% acknowledge they own the war.. what would make you think they dont? Or that they care about a random Scandinavian liberals opinion? They havent exactly asked any of the US's allies to come play and participate.. all they have requested is access to airspace..

If you havent been paying attention.. most people (to include liberals) acknowledge that Obama's policy regarding Iran is exactly why we're in the position we are in now.. your argument is frankly ridiculous.. no one cares what Obama or Biden for that matter considered regarding military action.. both are seen as abject failures on military matters during their administrations..

And... a bit machevellian.. but.. the US isnt nearly as dependent on crude flow through the straights as China or Europe or much of the rest of the world..

Yes.. when the global oil and gas situation gets impacted, whether negatively or positively, the US feels SOME of it... but... not nearly to the degree as say Norway.. or Germany.. or Indonesia.. or China.. or Thailand... so... Im not so sure Trump really cares about your concern that Iran will make oil prices soar...

There is also the fact that China is the worst impacted when global prices soar.. which means there would be some expectation that China would have interest in preventing that from happening to any degree they possibly can control..

All that said.. while you are primarily concerned with how much you personally have to spend at the gas pump.. The US and Israel are primarily concerned with ending Irans ability to conduct terrorism and proxy wars.. they have grown tired of the bullshit... and are doing something about it..

I'd guess if we added up all the costs of Iran sponsored global terrorism.. Iran sponsored attacks on US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years.. Iran sponsored proxy wars against Saudi Arabia, Israel, and others.. and compared that to the rising price of oil that we're going to see for a little while.. lets even call it a year...

Im betting the oil increase costs less....

 

[Tanks]

If you have to pay a few more Norwegian Krone for petrol, that's the price of freedom.

My partner called me yesterday, outraged that it took $100 to fill her Jeep. I said it was not a big deal and it was worth it. I might have also mentioned that she was using my credit card for it.

However, it also demonstrates that people are focused, most of the time, on what's happening right now rather than what can/will happen in the long term.

 

[Aaron N]

My partner called me yesterday, outraged that it took $100 to fill her Jeep. I said it was not a big deal and it was worth it. I might have also mentioned that she was using my credit card for it.

However, it also demonstrates that people are focused, most of the time, on what's happening right now rather than what can/will happen in the long term.

Do the right thing and get her a G-Wagon.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[Tanks]

Do the right thing and get her a G-Wagon.

This Jeep is her pride and joy. She specifically ordered the model and the color, and it is set up to carry her boards. She won't change it.