Politics

[Foxi]

Venezuela was 150 planes and the Delta Force plus an inserted CIA team. The same approach would have the same result as Carter's raid did. Different logistics and defense. We can bomb them, but doubt helicopter landings would work.

Why are helicopters so unreliable?
Carter/Iran
Bin Laden/Pakistan
You lost one there too, and I believe it was also without enemy action.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Why are helicopters so unreliable?
Carter/Iran
Bin Laden/Pakistan
You lost one there too, and I believe it was also without enemy action.

I know next to nothing about helicopters but I highly doubt you can compare a Carter era helicopter to an Obama era helicopter.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

What he said!

 

[CJW]

Why are helicopters so unreliable?
Carter/Iran
Bin Laden/Pakistan
You lost one there too, and I believe it was also without enemy action.

1 million moving parts.
Rely on beating the air and gravity into submission.
Most commonly used in tight spaces making it easy to strike something.

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

Why are helicopters so unreliable?
Carter/Iran
Bin Laden/Pakistan
You lost one there too, and I believe it was also without enemy action.

Helicopters are 100,000 parts flying in a perfect formation.
One part gets a little out of tolerance and stand by for a thrilling auto-rotation from a few thousand feet to the ground, in a hurry!

Did you ever ride in a chopper? Thump, thump, thump... Continuous vibration is not kind to mean time between failure.

The birds used in the attempted Iranian hostage rescue were from the ship.
Any electrical system near salt water grows salt a quarter inch thick! Gosh knows how the electrical backplane of those birds looked!

 

[Wheels]

This is a good question, and as this is my industry, I feel that for once, I'm actually the expert and can comment with some authority!

Alcohol consumption is definitely declining, and in fact has been for about 30 years now. People just ain't drinking like the used to. You probably drink less than your dad, and your kids probably drink less than you.

For beer specifically, this usually means a roughly 1-1.5% volume decline each year.

But this year, it's 4%...

What is also notable, is that in past years, this has been outweighed by a trend towards premiumization.

A boomer might spend 20 bucks on 24 cans of bud. A Millenial, used to spend 20 bucks on 4 cans of pretentious craft IPA.

A boomer might go to a dive bar 4 nights a week, whilst the millenial goes to a fancy cocktail bar twice a month. Less volume, similar dollars.

For beer, this has generally meant less volume, but more revenue, with a big focus on premium brands, which are the areas that were growing.

Until about 2024, and even more so in 2025.

People now are not just drinking less, they're straight up spending less. Volumes are down AND people are trading down to economy brands so revenue is down. Some of our economy portfolio actually pegged big volume jumps this year, for the first time in at least a decade.

We also see big declines in the 'on-trade' i.e bars, clubs, stadiums, and a shift towards lots of large bulk packs, typically in supermarkets. We also see a big jump in singles in Convenience. This generally means the wealthier people feeling the pinch are staying home and buying in bulk. Whilst the poor people are staying home and buying a small amount for small money in impulse occasions. Neither are generally indicators of economic confidence - the last time we saw this trend was late '08...

I think that's not just a systemic 'people don't drink now' trend, that's a cyclical trend, because people are broke. That seems to be the industry consensus as well.

I'm sure some regions are feeling good, and I won't detract from your lived experiences, but I tend to like the nationwide macro analysis based on data more here. Cuts out a lot of the local 'all my (rich) friends are real happy', or the boom/bust variance on local geographies. The trends I posted above don't paint a rosy story there, and based on our sales data, discussions with various other FMCG acquaintances, etc, I'm inclined to believe 'em.

Oh, and a depressing thought on GDP growth to end my doom 'n' gloom: https://fortune.com/2025/10/07/data...rst-half-2025-jason-furman-harvard-economist/

We may be near the fulcrum. Some prognosticators say we will tip one way and others the opposite.

You bring up the AI explosion going on. Over Thanksgiving I was with a family member who provides ancillary products to the AI industry. AI has gone from nonexistent to his second largest customer market in the past three years. I was surprised as there is not much AI in our State. AI is definitely a major factor in the current GDP numbers.

Trump says he has $20T in committed investments in America which is certainly not going to happen. If 5-7T actually happens that does become a significant stimulus to the economy. If the investment comes on line in time to stimulate the economy and keep it growing becomes the question.

Imports being subtracted from the GDP numbers also is a major contributing factor to the solid GDP numbers as consumers are increasingly buying domestically sourced products. Only a half year of lower imports will be in the 2025 numbers. An entire year will be in the 2026 numbers. This will also be dependent upon the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

Why are helicopters so unreliable?
Carter/Iran
Bin Laden/Pakistan
You lost one there too, and I believe it was also without enemy action.

Helicopters were first used in war during Korea, but were used there for carrying out wounded from the battlefield. It wasn't until Viet Nam that helicopters were used in a more active fighting role. If I recall correctly they changed things greatly as they were very effective and I believe overall very reliable.

But the jungles of Viet Nam are quite a different environment than the deserts of Iran. It was sand that gummed up the works of the helicopters there. A scenario that I don't think the copters were tested in previously.

The scenario in the Bin Laden raid was not a reliability issue as I've read. It was the flight conditions and trying to drop into the high walled compound that led to one of the choppers clipping its tail rotor on one of the walls while trying to descend into the compound. This due to the conditions making it difficult to control the aircraft.

All of the above is subject to correction by @Red Leg or others that have more knowledge than I on helicopters.

 

[Pondoro]

Now Trump threatens with 10% extra toll for Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherland, Finland and Norway..for planning to strenghten Greenlands defence and for not complying with his Greenland adventure.. USA´s fellow NATO allies..

We are currently on the brink of total NATO collapse...wich he do not comprehend..

Trump is completely mad..what a disgrace this person is.. Are there zero grown ups left in this administration...??!

 

[Alistair]

We may be near the fulcrum. Some prognosticators say we will tip one way and others the opposite.

You bring up the AI explosion going on. Over Thanksgiving I was with a family member who provides ancillary products to the AI industry. AI has gone from nonexistent to his second largest customer market in the past three years. I was surprised as there is not much AI in our State. AI is definitely a major factor in the current GDP numbers.

Trump says he has $20T in committed investments in America which is certainly not going to happen. If 5-7T actually happens that does become a significant stimulus to the economy. If the investment comes on line in time to stimulate the economy and keep it growing becomes the question.

Imports being subtracted from the GDP numbers also is a major contributing factor to the solid GDP numbers as consumers are increasingly buying domestically sourced products. Only a half year of lower imports will be in the 2025 numbers. An entire year will be in the 2026 numbers. This will also be dependent upon the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.

Yeah, good points, and I agree.

On the AI topic, what I think is notable, and potentially concerning, is that the main way in which AI is boosting the GDP numbers at present isn't 'revenue generated from useful AI applications', it's 'capital investment in AI infrastructure'.

The Mag 7 companies alone have invested roughly 200Bn last year, next year it's expected to be 500Bn. Totals since 2013 are well over $1.3Tn now. Total revenue generated thus far, roughly $18.5Bn.

That's effectively over a trillion dollars in economic stimulus into the US economy in the last couple of years... for basically no return. For contrast, total economic stimulus the US Government provided from 2009-2012 to recover from 2008... was roughly $1.8tn.

If that stops, well, things could go sideways real quick. So we're hoping that all that money invested was in fact a 'good investment', that AI will truly live up to all of the hype. Because if it doesn't, and the big AI companies stop investing in those physical assets, we're all screwed...

As for the '20T of investment', I agree, no chance. 5-7 does seem more reasonable, 3.5 perhaps more so even that that. That's once again, if the AI investment continues.

80% of the totals currently on the books (per WH claims) are into that sector, so once again, we better hope the markets don't sour on it.

A pretty good Bllomberg read on that topic if you're interested:

https://archive.is/ReAwK#selection-3911.37-3916.0

 

[Tundra Tiger]

His petulance never ceases to amaze me. Five year olds have nothing on him.

 

[KJE81]

His petulance never ceases to amaze me. Five year olds have nothing on him.

View attachment 739709

Its like he wants the world to know that there is no point in signing trade aggreements with his USA, he will rip them up when he finds the next shiny thing he wants and cant have...

No wonder that Canada is taking steps to diversify its trading parters. I guess a lot of other countries are looking and taking notes. If he keeps it up the dollar might lose its reserve status in the process.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Helicopters were first used in war during Korea, but were used there for carrying out wounded from the battlefield. It wasn't until Viet Nam that helicopters were used in a more active fighting role. If I recall correctly they changed things greatly as they were very effective and I believe overall very reliable.

But the jungles of Viet Nam are quite a different environment than the deserts of Iran. It was sand that gummed up the works of the helicopters there. A scenario that I don't think the copters were tested in previously.

The scenario in the Bin Laden raid was not a reliability issue as I've read. It was the flight conditions and trying to drop into the high walled compound that led to one of the choppers clipping its tail rotor on one of the walls while trying to descend into the compound. This due to the conditions making it difficult to control the aircraft.

All of the above is subject to correction by @Red Leg or others that have more knowledge than I on helicopters.

It’s actually amazing more Helicopters don’t crash. It’s like riding in the agitator of a washing machine, the sickle bar of a haybine, a rock crusher all rolled into something that should not stay in the air.

I’ve had pilots purposefully Auto Rotate to scare us. It felt like every rivet was coming out of that thing.

Junk.

I think the Stealth copter in beautiful downtown Abbottabad had dirty air from the walls, heat and additional weight. They lost their air and the tail rotor hit the wall.

Junk. But it beats walking I guess.

 

[Boyd Brooks]

He is getting NATO countries to look at their military’s abilities.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

It’s actually amazing more Helicopters don’t crash. It’s like riding in the agitator of a washing machine, the sickle bar of a haybine, a rock crusher all rolled into something that should not stay in the air.

I’ve had pilots purposefully Auto Rotate to scare us. It felt like every rivet was coming out of that thing.

Junk.

I think the Stealth copter in beautiful downtown Abbottabad had dirty air from the walls, heat and additional weight. They lost their air and the tail rotor hit the wall.

Junk. But it beats walking I guess.

I've only been on one helicopter ride in my life. That was on the island of Kauai'i a couple years ago. I'm glad I did it, it was a most impressive way to see my favorite of the Hawaiian islands I've been to. That said, my impression of the aircraft was similar to yours. I felt like I was riding in a flying 1960's American hot rod rebuilt under a shade tree.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Its like he wants the world to know that there is no point in signing trade aggreements with his USA, he will rip them up when he finds the next shiny thing he wants and cant have...

No wonder that Canada is taking steps to diversify its trading parters. I guess a lot of other countries are looking and taking notes. If he keeps it up the dollar might lose its reserve status in the process.

If he keeps it up the dollar might lose its reserve status in the process.

This is a real possibility. I’ll post this same video I posted a few days ago because it’s becoming very relevant.

Everyone of Trumps bold actions can be explained away and many need to be done. But the frustrating part is all these actions should’ve been done over the last three decades, but they weren’t.

so now he’s trying to do it all in four years and it’s very disruptive, and behind-the-scenes it’s rattling other nations loyalty to the U.S. and the dollar and confidence in our stability.

We are behaving like every other empire. International over reach, printing money, internal strife, all leading to one conclusion

 

[SaintPanzer]

I'm just sitting here shocked by the number of people who don't know that some time after 1979 we developed helicopters with an air-to-air refueling capability.

 

[skydiver386]

All aircraft are fragile and require constant maintenance. One "Golden BB" can brig one down if it hits a critical point.

The tilt rotor designs were brought online to deal with some of the shortcomings of the Desert One raid in Iran. Trying to send an aircraft long distances across the desert, land in a soccer stadium and back across the desert was the target of the "Credible Sport" project.

People whine about the tilt rotor aircraft, but I'd much rather be in one than anything they cam up with during the Credible Sport projects. Speed is life, and loud slow rotary wing aircraft aren't where I want to be when the enemy knows you're coming.

 

[Aaron N]

He is getting NATO countries to look at their military’s abilities.

And punishing them when they step up apparently

 

[Brent in Az]

The daily TDS feeding frenzy.....LOL

 

[steve white]

I've only been on one helicopter ride in my life. That was on the island of Kauai'i a couple years ago. I'm glad I did it, it was a most impressive way to see my favorite of the Hawaiian islands I've been to. That said, my impression of the aircraft was similar to yours. I felt like I was riding in a flying 1960's American hot rod rebuilt under a shade tree.

I didn't feel that way on our Kauai ride, but then, ignorance is bliss....