I get that, but do you have him on record trash talking him before he was doing it to help his old lap dog PP get elected?
Well aren’t you a buzzkill. I think most people are in the Mag 7. If not, you need a different Broker.That's a lot to unpack, so let's go through line by line.
Unemployment. No, it's not down.
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Civilian unemployment rate
www.bls.gov
Bls statistics pegged it at 4.1% in December 24, now they're at 4.4%. Still low by historical standards, but the highest level since October 2021.
The markets are up, but only due to AI.
The SP493 vs the Magificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms (Facebook), Nvidia, and Tesla), all of whom are all in on AI, and frankly, have silly valuations:
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Interest rates are dropping. No argument, they definitely are.
Tax cuts, who knows. Promises mean nothing to any politician, let along this administration.
The Gen Y stuff, well... this ain't a generational thing. It's a socioeconomic thing. If you're in the top 10% of so of household, this is a great economy. If you're not, it ain't.
Those folks (i.e, us) are pretty happy, and they're still spending, the rest, not so much.
Wage growth, eh, sort of.
By CPI, just about, yeah: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000013?output_view=pct_12mths
Compared to car payments, mortgage payments, rent, electricity, health insurance, all the big ticket items...not so much.
Job security, sorry, just no. Once again, unemployment up, job creation not close to keeping up with population growth, masses of layoffs in the last year. We've gone from no hire, no fire, to no hire, some fire. The only categories that seem immune right now are healthcare (people are getting old), speciality construction (gotta build them data centers), and consulting (gotta work how AI is gonna make you money).
2025 Year-End Challenger Report: Highest Q4 Layoffs Since 2008; Lowest YTD Hiring Since 2010
Layoff plans by US-based employers soared in 2025 led primarily by the Federal Government and Technology. Meanwhile, employers announced the lowest number of new hires since 2010. December saw the fewest layoff plans in 17-months, and December's hiring plans were the highest for the month since...www.challengergray.com
That brings us to the last point, where, I'm sorry, you're also wrong. 'People' don't believe they're better off, at least not on average nation wide. I draw your attention to the consumer sentiment index:
US Consumer Confidence
A monthly survey of US consumer attitudes, spending plans, and expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rateswww.conference-board.org
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
View an index of the results of the University of Michigan's monthly Survey of Consumers, which is used to estimate future spending and saving.fred.stlouisfed.org
You only have to look at all the Earnings calls I listed in the previous post to see that's impacting businesses, and it's not like the administration isn't aware that the populace is souring on the economy.
If they aren't why have they tried to force down mortgage rates, put caps on credit card interest, and paused student loan collections?
As Trump throws a bone to Gen Z on student debt, watchdog calls it an 'incoherent political giveaway,' straight out of Biden's playbook | Fortune
Student-debt collections are being halted again, as they have for over half a decade now.fortune.com
Not exactly policy decisions you'd feel the need to make if everyone was so confident in the economy...
The craft beer craze has slowed. Not a surprise that the fad is slowing. Too many microbreweries here in Colorado. As for cheap beer consumption increasing, it could have something to do with 10-20 million immigrants that Biden allowed in?! Drinking is definitely declining otherwise. I hardly ever drink beer anymore but do appreciate a good gin & tonic here and there. The wife likes a good margarita once in a while and I’m all for it because I reap the benefits. Lol.
I honestly think you have it backwards. Carney was Harper’s lap dog. Under Harper’s direction he looked good in his BoC role. Thereafter he rose past the level of his competence. PP has always been a strongly opinionated libertarian who rose through the conservative ranks. The most effective policy decisions Carney has done were all PP conservative platforms during the election. The smile on smiths face is a Harper era pipeline that Trudeau cancelled. Carney has eschewed good governance for quick fixes, and I don’t believe it will work out well. China has only agreed to tariff relief until after the US midterm elections. Let’s see how nice they are if it doesn’t suit them to be after that. With increased deficit spending, Canada will be weaker by then unless he can shore up something long term internally. That’s how India moved from 11th place internationally to 4th in the same period Trudeau kept us at 10th. Carney has done nothing to build Canadian resilience and that doesn’t bode well.
Maybe beer is so expensive because of the price of fuel. Like everything else it’s delivered in big diesel trucks, you mess with diesel cost of all goods skyrocket. Believe trump is getting the cost down doing everything he can and more than anyone ever has. But Canadian beer sales could be down cause it’s to Skunky. Just saying.To be honest mdwest, I have a very, very different opinion on the current economic environment than you do.
Additionally, you are the only person all year who I've experienced having this particular opinion. I say that very seriously.
From where I'm sitting, things are only really 'good' for those who have large amounts invested in the stock market, and rely on that as their primary source of income. I'm doing ok in that environment, and I'm sure you are as well.
But I also work for a beer company, and trends there paint a different story. Same as for every FMCG company.
To put it simply, 'Joe 6 pack' can't afford a 6 pack anymore. Or at least, doesn't feel secure enough in his finances, or his job, to buy one.
Why does that matter? Well, FMCG is a pretty good measure of consumer sentiment for a couple of reasons.
1. The category is universally consumed by all socioeconomic classes.
2. It's a repeating purchase item. People need to buy groceries, what are they buying? Are they trying to economize? what discretionary items are they willing to buy?
3. Beer specifically is a good marker for 'vibes' as well. Are people going out for a beer with friends? Are they hosting a cook out? Are they watching sporting events? Do they feel comfortable spending money on 'fun'?
For beer, the industry is down about 3% this year, some companies more than others. Craft has been decimated. It's the expensive premium choice, and people can't afford it anymore. Input prices are through the roof as well, aluminium tariffs alone are a couple cents a can in additional pain, if nothing else.
The 2025 Year in Beer
Changing consumer behaviors, retailer rationalization, cost increases from inflation and tariffs, and more competition than ever were compounding difficulties in 2025. While many of the headwinds aren’t expected to disappear in 2026, there may be reason for cautious optimism in some areas.www.brewersassociation.org
The company whom I work for is doing a little better because we have a strong portfolio of economy brands, which many of our consumers who used to buy 'premium domestic' are trading into. As a result, we've only cut headcount by 8% this year...
Other FMCG companies are seeing the same thing.
Here's Q&A for KraftHeinz in Q3 25: https://ir.kraftheinzcompany.com/me...5_KHC_QA_Transcript_v1.pdf?disposition=inline
Here's Coca Cola (The BofA question on page 16 is telling): https://ir.kraftheinzcompany.com/me...5_KHC_QA_Transcript_v1.pdf?disposition=inline
PepsiCo (The WellsFargo question on P15 is informative): https://www.pepsico.com/docs/pepsico-5v9wci20/media/Files/investors/q3-2025-pep_transcript.pdf
Mondelez (Up in every business unit, except the US): https://ir.mondelezinternational.co...ondelez-international-reports-q3-2025-results
P&G: https://us.pg.com/blogs/pg-earnings-third-quarter-2025/
Predictably this has lead to a couple of CEO changes, and pretty much universal lay offs across the food and beverage industry. But if people don't have expendable income, and have no confidence in the economy, or job security, or the future, then what can you really do?
United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Confidence in the United States increased to 57.30 points in February from 56.40 points in January of 2026. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...tradingeconomics.com
Americans making more than $100,000 are quickly losing faith in the economy—and it's a red flag for the white-collar job market | Fortune
Worries over job security are fueling declining confidence among the well-off.
This isn't exclusively a 'Trump' thing, 2024 wasn't a good year either. But this idea that 'things were terrible 12 months ago, and now they're great' is pure fantasy. Or at least pure political bias. Nothing has materially changed. Or at least, nothing has changed for the better.
Interest rates ARE down, no denying that, so that's one win... but debt loads are climbing.
Household Debt and Credit Report
Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. householdswww.newyorkfed.org
Wages aren't growing. Inflation has slowed, but it's still driving up prices for consumers who still haven't caught up from the last 5 years. Nobody has any confidence in the economy. Job security is shaky. Nobody has expendable income. Unemployment, whilst still low, is rising.
But so long as the AI bubble keeps propping up the stock market, most on this forum will continue to be increasingly comfortable. Good for us.
I'd note that's been true through 2023, 2024 as well, when you lot were all saying how terrible the economy was. If I was mean, I'd call that hypocrisy.
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But either way, the top couple of % of households doesn't make up an economy...
In all honesty, I believe you’ve already been invaded by both China & India…..
Whenever I hear a boomer make such statements, I immediately think about slipping them a magic brownie
I'd agree that the craft scene got too crowded, and that's a factor.
Definitely a factor, although perhaps not as much as you'd think based on the data I've seen. For alcohol decline, I mean.
Whenever I hear a boomer make such statements, I immediately think about slipping them a magic brownie
In all honesty though, I’ve seen more people destroy their body and lives with over the counter and prescription medication than all illicit narcotics combined.
My mother used to be an ER nurse and she’s got a collection of horror stories involving people taking too much Tylenol.
That would certainly make the forum quieter........
It would get awful boring around here without the occasional poop flinging.....
Aha, gateway drug.
Venezuela was 150 planes and the Delta Force plus an inserted CIA team. The same approach would have the same result as Carter's raid did. Different logistics and defense. We can bomb them, but doubt helicopter landings would work.
