In international affairs - particularly in conflict - every side claims the moral high ground. Ultimately it is pointless arguing about right and wrong - it is important that Putin looses and is seen to lose.
There is no NATO advance eastwards - there is an escape of smaller nations from a regime they do not wish to be ruled by
What threatens Putin is not NATO military build up on his borders, but the unedifying (for him) spectacle of former USSR nations embracing (and succeeding in) a western lifestyle
Did these countries need to join NATO for protection? Well Putin has just proved that they did
Note - Putin needs to be seen to fail, not the Russian people - there is a difference
Succinct, and I believe exactly correct. Watching the Baltic States prosper was worrisome enough, but having Ukraine emerge from socialist tyranny and start to become a prosperous member of the Western European community was simply intolerable. It put a daily lie to every myth being spread through internal propaganda about Russia's brave and lonely stand against the evils of the Western democracies. A lie which Russians, many with family and contacts in Ukraine, could see all too clearly.
So Putin decided to primitively invade before his vision of a totalitarian military state was overcome by the reality of the Western European experience creeping across the border from the West.
But to do so and not to realize the limitations of his on war machine is simply staggering. We shook our collective military heads when the Russians reorganized around the battalion tactical group concept. They looked potentially agile for a peace keeping operation in the Balkans (from which many of the lessons learned in their organization were taken), but incredibly fragile for a sustained high intensity conflict against a peer opponent. That already has been proven out in spades on the battlefield.
Russia is losing this war. It is losing it to Ukraine, not to NATO.
Ukraine reorganized its ground forces following the 2014 debacle. It adopted the mechanized brigade organizational model mirroring both US and UK concepts. Many of their best company and field grade officers served with NATO forces through much of the Afghanistan campaign. There they learned joint staff planning, the need for rigorous collective training, and the intricate art of combined arms operations. They have participated in every NATO exercise over the last eight years perfecting those skills. At a more basic level they created a professional NCO corps and unshackled their junior officer leadership from the Soviet model of strict obedience to the last order, instead nurturing Western style tactical freedom that encourages junior leader initiative on the battlefield.
Russia is staring into an abyss. It has no one to blame but the little tyrant in the Kremlin. It's field army is being systematically attritted at an unsustainable rate. It has expended a huge proportion of its precision engagement munitions to no meaningful effect. Two days ago it was reduced to firing anti-ship missiles into Odessa. Sanctions are preventing the repair of aircraft or assembly of new missile stocks. Putin gave a speech today which offered no new ideas, no hope, and no way out of the quagmire he has created. In a few weeks the Ukrainian counter offensive will begin in earnest. What then?
Perhaps you will listen to Mikhail Khodarenok. He is a realist who I respect. Even the propogandists around the circular table have enough sense not to interrupt him. Russia has no new options. And national/cultural nuclear suicide isn't much of a legacy.
This is an article he wrote in early February - someone in the Kremlin should have read it. It is worth reading now. I regret that I do not have it in the original Russian, but there is a link in the introduction.
In NVO, Mikhail Khodarenok has written about how a possible Russian Army campaign in Ukraine won’t be any cake walk. Here’s a translation.
russiandefpolicy.com
Putin needs a negotiated settlement. He needs it soon. If not Russia will be a generation or more recovering from totally avoidable military economic fiasco.