Politics

[KJE81]

How would you have Trump pressure Putin harder? Maybe upset the applecart in Venzuela (oh he did that). Maybe push to remove the linkage between Cuba and Russia (oh doing that too).

I believe that putting too much immediate pressure too quickly could escalate the conflict, the time to use our muscle was when Russia was massing troops prior to the invasion. But now it seems that Putin is backed into a corner, let them bleed and put pressure on their economy.

AJ

For starters Trump might consider to reinstate the oil sanctions on Russia which he lifted recently.

By now Ukraine has destroyed so much of the russian oil infrastructure that the damage done by Trumps lifting of those sanctions probably is not so severe any longer but it might still send a signal to Putin.

 

[KJE81]

Trump hates Zelensky. Add in the isolationist wing of MAGA, you end up with lukewarm support for Ukraine. Plus Trump is very transactional, it is always “What have you done for me lately?”

Not difficult to understand.

Yes, it would probably be more effective if the EU would present Trump with a personal "gift" similar to what Qatar did with that airplane, but unfortunately I dont think that the EU will do that.

 

[AJ Peacock]

For starters Trump might consider to reinstate the oil sanctions on Russia which he lifted recently.

By now Ukraine has destroyed so much of the russian oil infrastructure that the damage done by Trumps lifting of those sanctions probably is not so severe any longer but it might still send a signal to Putin.

Putting those sanctions on now would do nothing to their economy. Holding that card until it matters would be a better play. As Venezuelas' capacity ramps up and the Iran issue goes away, that will do more to remove $$ from the Russian economy than sanctions against oil that doesn't exist.

AJ

 

[Pondoro]

Reimburse a part of USA´s military expenses in Europe maybe..?

 

[WAB]

It may be interesting to explain the european narrative to the Ukraine war..

Trump and his admin. have repetedly tried to make peace by presenting peace plans. These have been answered with alternatives from both Europe and Russia.

The european narrative is that the parts are so far from each other that securing peace is futile.

This war will be setteled on the battlefield and the probable outcome is a frozen conflict aka Korea.

This will sour western - russian relationship for many years to come.

We believe that Russia will rearm after the Ukraine war finish and threathen the weak link, maybe the Baltic states. The Baltic area has become a hot spot area after Sweden and Finland joined NATO..much because of the Kaliningrad military base.

There is a reason for the US investing heavily in an airbase in southern Norway..amongst other things.

US nuclear attack subs also regularily visit norwegian ports..

So for us europeans, Ukraine is a proxy who in many ways wage war against Russia on our behalf. It is a fact that Russia consider itself to be at war with the west over Ukraine. Let that sink in for a moment..

Therefore the EU has granted Ukraine €90 billion to keep them afloat. In addition to that much military aid are being provided by the european states and ukrainian troops regularily train in western countries.

We need to buy time to rearm (it is happening) to counter the russian aggression.

The presence of US troops will always have a calming effect on Russia. The only thing they fear right now is american military might..

I think Europe need to reimburse a significant part of the cost of having US military presence.. in addition to rearm. That will make american presence more palatable for your politicians.

To put it bluntly, both Europe and the US benefit from Russia bleeding dry in this war. They have probably lost 1.3 million troops, dead or wounded..an insane number.

That shows with all clarity what they are capable of and willing to sacrifice to reach their goals.

Another possible outcome is financial collapse in Russia and social unrest. Reagan broke the Soviet Union financially remember.. It worked.



What we do not understand is why Trump don´t pressure Putin harder.. This is one of the reasons matters sour between Europe and the US..

You are loosing many valuable defence contracts to Europe and for instance Korea over this..

Very well stated sir.

 

[Tanks]

Yes, it would probably be more effective if the EU would present Trump with a personal "gift" similar to what Qatar did with that airplane, but unfortunately I dont think that the EU will do that.

Forget personal gifts. EU always has self-interest at its core. They will ask for American help while going after American businesses like Apple, Google, Meta etc. with punitive fines in order to gain advantage for EU businesses. You are either a partner or an adversary.

I had a conversation with the VP of Sales of a major corporation long time ago when we were going after a 9 figure contract and talking about partnering. His opening comment was: “ The name of the game is you scratch my back, and I scratch your back.” We had a great relationship for years going forward.

EU, as a whole, has not been scratching our back, instead they have been stabbing us as we have seen recently with denial of use of airbases and airspace during this Iran war.

“You reap, what you sow.”

 

[mdwest]

Trump hates Zelensky. Add in the isolationist wing of MAGA, you end up with lukewarm support for Ukraine. Plus Trump is very transactional, it is always “What have you done for me lately?”

Not difficult to understand.

Concur.

And let’s not forget the last time he was in office most of Europe, to include its leaders spent their time lampooning him, refusing to take him seriously, etc…

So now he spends his time lampooning them and refuses to take them seriously…

Funny how short Europes memory is..

It was all well and good as long as they could fly baby Trump balloons, stick their middle finger up at him on NATO issues, and hold press conference where prime ministers publicly denounced him repeatedly…

Fear and loathing (of Donald Trump) in the EU

EU leaders worry the transatlantic relationship won’t survive another four years.

www.politico.eu

Then Russia attacks Ukraine… and Trump learns from his prior time in office and takes a much more hard line on Europe… and everything changes…

Perhaps the right approach would have been to take him seriously in 2016 and attempt to work with him despite not liking or understanding him…

Instead Europe pushed back on everything and refused to take him seriously…

And now wants to exclusively blame Trump for the fractured relationship…

Both sides are responsible…

The difference is Trump holds most of the cards…

And leaders like Macron, Starmer, and Sanchez want to believe the right approach is to continue behaving like it’s 2016…

 

[PARA45]

Remember this?

 

[mdwest]

Yes, it would probably be more effective if the EU would present Trump with a personal "gift" similar to what Qatar did with that airplane, but unfortunately I dont think that the EU will do that.

Qatar didn’t gift a 747 because they’re “nice”…

They gifted a 747 to earn favor… the US maintains an air base in Qatar… and Qatar is now building a facility in the US (Idaho) that its Air Force will conduct training at…

The US has taken an interest in ensuring that Qatar is being provided defensive weapons systems and is assisting Qatar in ramping up security during the current conflict..

Qatar recognizes it needs to do some back scratching as @Tanks describes… and in turn the US will do a little back scratching as well… all while conveniently ignoring that Qatar has passively provided support and safe haven for Hamas for decades..

Trump is transactional…

Want him to soften a tariff? Offer him something in return rather than bitching… want more support for Ukraine? That also comes with a price tag… etc…

@Pondoro might be onto something about offering to offset some of the costs of US troops on the ground in Europe… I don’t think it would have to be a large sum of money honestly… a mere token would be enough.. it lets Trump claim a victory and show Europe is coming around and wants to renew the relationship..

The situation at the moment is very different… for example every time the US participated in the NATO exercise Reforger (redeploy forces to Germany) to war game a Russian/soviet invasion of Europe, not only did the US cover the cost of deploying huge amounts of forces, training, etc… but Germany would then after the event bill the US for millions upon millions of dollars because a road needed to be repaired after tanks drove on it, or a farmers cow died during the exercise because of low flying aircraft, etc etc etc…

So Europe wants the US to be prepared to deploy and defend Europe against the Russians… and to train extensively for just such an event… but it also expects the US to cover all of the associated costs… to include repairing its roads once the exercise is over?

 

[RLD]

Putting those sanctions on now would do nothing to their economy. Holding that card until it matters would be a better play. As Venezuelas' capacity ramps up and the Iran issue goes away, that will do more to remove $$ from the Russian economy than sanctions against oil that doesn't exist.

AJ

My understanding is that Venezuela is years away from really getting up to speed.

 

[Pondoro]

World’s largest condom maker warns of up to 30% price hike due to US-Iran war

The Malaysian firm, which produces more than five billion condoms annually for brands including Durex and Trojan, said the disruption to global petrochemical supply chains has tightened access to key inputs such as ammonia, used in latex preservation, and silicone-based lubricants

www.tbsnews.net

Oh well..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Also, Obama, Biden and Trump had the Intelligence agencies in their ear. Whispering that perhaps we should let them both bleed longer. Just keep them both enabled long enough to drain both.

One side needs an infusion to keep fighting they get. The other side needs oil revenue. They get it.

There has been a long-standing strategy to keep confusion, chaos and wars in other hemispheres so those nations are less likely to look towards ours. It even has a name.

 

[mdwest]

My understanding is that Venezuela is years away from really getting up to speed.

Most industry experts I’ve read say 5 years to reach maximum capacity (based on prior max)… but they are increasing capacity overall rapidly (tomorrow will be better than today, the next day will be even better, etc)..

 

[RLD]

Want him to soften a tariff? Offer him something in return rather than bitching… want more support for Ukraine? That also comes with a price tag… etc…


So Europe wants the US to be prepared to deploy and defend Europe against the Russians… and to train extensively for just such an event… but it also expects the US to cover all of the associated costs… to include repairing its roads once the exercise is over?

The first option is simply "feeding the troll" or "bribing the bully." It reinforces and invites more bad behaviour from a childish leader. I have no issue with muting one's criticism of Trump so he can strut like a peacock (annoying but harmless), but I fail to see the difference between bribing Trump to do what is right or meet basic obligations and paying Iran a bribe to send your ship through the straights of Hormuz.

So let me get this right, the U.S. rightly wants NATO members to increase their spending to reasonable levels, but then wants a free ride of some sort when they are insisting that everyone else pay an honest fare? Interesting approach. A tough sell across Europe I would guess.

Most industry experts I’ve read say 5 years to reach maximum capacity (based on prior max)… but they are increasing capacity overall rapidly (tomorrow will be better than today, the next day will be even better, etc)..

I have heard ten to fifteen but you never know.

 

[AJ Peacock]

My understanding is that Venezuela is years away from really getting up to speed.

Yes, sort of. Probably 1.1Million Barrels/day this year sometime and 1.5 or so by 2028 (which is around what Iran was pumping before the current actions). Long term, 3 Mil Barrels/day (6-10 years).

A bigger impact than the amount, is where it is going and at what price. Going into our hemisphere and being sold with USD instead of to China at a discount. This is a much bigger move in the economic war that is ongoing by China against the USD. A weaker China indirectly makes Russia weaker too.

AJ

 

[RLD]

A weaker China indirectly makes Russia weaker too.

AJ

How do you figure?

 

[AJ Peacock]

...

So let me get this right, the U.S. rightly wants NATO members to increase their spending to reasonable levels, but then wants a free ride of some sort when they are insisting that everyone else pay an honest fare? Interesting approach. A tough sell across Europe I would guess.

...

What free ride?? Please explain, I'm confused.

AJ

 

[AJ Peacock]

How do you figure?

China is Russia's biggest economic partner. There is a no-limits alliance between them to push against US interests. QED Look up the details of their alliance and it will become more than obvious how weakening one has an affect on the other.

AJ

 

[Pondoro]

Russia is burning..

 

[mdwest]

The first option is simply "feeding the troll" or "bribing the bully." It reinforces and invites more bad behaviour from a childish leader. I have no issue with muting one's criticism of Trump so he can strut like a peacock (annoying but harmless), but I fail to see the difference between bribing Trump to do what is right or meet basic obligations and paying Iran a bribe to send your ship through the straights of Hormuz.

So let me get this right, the U.S. rightly wants NATO members to increase their spending to reasonable levels, but then wants a free ride of some sort when they are insisting that everyone else pay an honest fare? Interesting approach. A tough sell across Europe I would guess.

I have heard ten to fifteen but you never know.

Where exactly is the free ride youre referencing? If you talk to the average American (left or right leaning... doesnt matter) they are of the opinion that Europe has been getting the free ride for decades.. the only difference is the leftists think this is ok.. that the free ride makes the Europeans "like" the US, and there are benefits to that.. and the right wingers no longer care if Europe "likes" the US or not.. they arent interested in buying friends any longer..

I think we'll have to disagree on the bribing the bully... I think Trump (and many others) see it as a bit of payback.. again, look back to 2016 and the way Trump was treated by Europe.. look at @PARA45 attached pic in the post above...

Kick the big kid on the block in the balls... when he beats your ass for it, thats not being a bully... you were just a dumbass that thought you'd get away with piss poor behavior because you always have in the past.. and you got the shit kicked out of you for it...