Politics

[Brent in Az]

Cut deals with each other and India, China, etc. Buy products we used to buy from the U.S. from other places.

Interestingly, you should be aware that the Conservative Party of Canada, of whom I am a member, has made free trade with many countries including the U.S. an official part of their new platform (entitled "Canada First"). Canadian conservatism is rooted in a belief in free trade. We were cruising to a win in the last federal election until Trump got elected and acted out and Pol got smoked by the mere perception he might be inclined towards Trumpism. You can bet he won't make that mistake again.

And my province is governed by a historically successful Conservative Populist by the name of Ford. He is the guy that set Trump off with the Reagan ad and was going to turn off the power to Michigan. He cannot stand Trump and his policies and goes up in the polls every time he pulls a stunt like that.

The dislike of Trump is very wide reaching in Canada. He is politically toxic for conservatives and liberals up here.

Your conservative party is soft and weak.

We certainly won't lose any sleep over Canada's disdain for Trump

 

[Pondoro]

He was from the far-right isolationist wing of MAGA. You know, the folks that like to stick their head in the sand and pretend what goes on in the rest of the world does not matter. It would be much worse for the EU if folks that think the way he does dictated US foreign policy all the time.

I like him..MAGA or not..

 

[RLD]

Therein lies the rub...

Ask a conservative American.. and he'll tell you that we have been ill treated and taken advantage of by the governments of Canada and Europe for far too long.. and that theyre all pissed now that they arent being allowed to continue the mistreatment..

And the reality is.. both are true..

There is no denying that NATO (as a singular example.. there are plenty more) largely sat on its ass, refused to shoulder its share of the costs, responsibilities, or commitments made for decades...

And all of Europe (and Canada) screamed like Trump was doing them wrong when he took them to task over it...

And here we are years into the Ukraine war.. and now most of Europe (and Canada) are acknowledging that they do in fact need to be pulling their fair share of the weight...


On the trade front, I dont think there is any dispute that the pendulum had swung WAY out of favor of the US over the years (globally).. .but.. I think most will also acknowledge that Trump is attempting to swing is WAY to the other side now rather than find a reasonable happy medium that everyone can be satisfied with..

So.. who is really at fault?

I'd say everyone has shit on their shoes... and no one wants to admit it.. its easier just to shout and point fingers and blame someone else..

ALL relationships are two way streets.. the US and Canada, the US and Europe, etc. didnt get where we are because of one party and one party only.. Everyone played a role..

What should be happening, but never will.. because frankly the thing the US, Canada, and Europe have most in common is.. we all SUCK at choosing leaders.. is all parties should be coming to the table to figure out what strategically, in the long term, benefits everyone...

It's not about fault, it is about greed and Trump's egomania on the economic side anyways.

I agree on the NATO spending, I am glad we and other NATO members are pulling up there socks. It is one of the best things Trump has accomplished. Mission accomplished.

On the trade front their have always been tensions between Canada and the U.S. but they all played out on a civilized playing field. You guys subsidize your farmers, we protect dairy, we have some softwood lumber disputes and the beat gos on, both economies hum along and everybody does just fine out of it. I don't except your premise that the U.S. was getting hosed by the world. You had a balance of trade problem because your country had shit tons of money and were buying everybody's else's stuff. You built a super successful consumer nation and you were doing what you built it to do, consume. American had the money, they wanted to spend it. Tragic.

Now Trump decides he wants to break all of the moulds and he wants all the marbles, and on top of that he is going to be crass and childish about it.

There used to be boundaries and ways to handle disputes that were not particularly destructive. That rules based orderly system was in large part built by the U.S. for its benefit. Trump, knowing better than everyone ("I know more than the generals"...etc) decided to toss it all and has made a big mess without a real plan to replace it.

I agree that people should be at the table trying to recreate stability. But nobody trusts Trump to do that, and he keeps moving the table. So we start working around him as hard as can until there is someone at the table we can talk to without them threatening Greenland or some other such nonsense.

Now we got rid of our really bad wanker (Trudeau), who bizarrely Trump was able to cut an economic deal with, your turn to get rid of yours!

 

[RLD]

Your conservative party is soft and weak.

We certainly won't lose any sleep over Canada's disdain for Trump

At least we have a national conservative party. All you have is some bizarre cult of personality for a guy who is an authoritarian socialist.

 

[RLD]

@RLD you and I will likely have to agree to disagree on indians much as we do with natives.

I prefer the term Indians normally, but I will strive to disagree civilly with you.

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

I prefer the term Indians normally, but I will strive to disagree civilly with you.

In that instance it was used as a way to differentiate the two groups

 

[Pondoro]

I agree that it was high time the rest of NATO increased military bugdets..

Hey..I Said something positive about Trump..I must be going soft..

 

[Tanks]

I like him..MAGA or not..

"Enemy of my enemy is my friend." Guess, it applies in this situation.

Think of viewpoints of his ilk:
-- No aid to Ukraine.
-- US out of NATO.
-- Non-intervention anywhere for any reason.

I think he would be worse for you than Trump in the long run. That is one of the reasons I am not keen on Vance in 2028. Isolationism does not work in today's world.

 

[Brent in Az]

At least we have a national conservative party. All you have is some bizarre cult of personality for a guy who is an authoritarian socialist.

You have an unhinged party,....if they are anything like you.
The Democrat party are the authoritarian socialists, Trump is an ass kicker.

 

[Aaron N]

being a social media influencer type who happens to hold a mid level leadership position in the government

Not a great combination in my eyes.

 

[mdwest]

Not a great combination in my eyes.

In most cases I would concur..

I dont know Kent personally.. but I know a few guys that worked with him back in his army days.. everyone Ive spoken with thinks hes a good guy, hard working, honest, etc...

and other than his extreme right wing positions on a few things, I can agree with him more than not on most other items (he is for a strong military, rigidly controlled border, America First, etc..etc..).. Im going to guess he is a much better guy and more likeable than your typical career bureaucrat..

But.. I also recognize that even though he and I served in the same regiment in the army and may know a few of the same people (he is much younger than I am though.. so even with the people we both know there is a good bit of separation).. and that I probably have some positive bias about him that I otherwise wouldnt have.. that hes pretty much as much of a "nobody" in the world as I am..

Hes got a little bit of internet fame.. and Im sure now that he's leaving public office he'll end up a fairly regular commentator on Fox, will jump on a Tucker episode or two, probably get on Megyn Kellys show, might do another sit down with Shawn Ryan, etc..

But at the end of the day, what we are talking about is a retired SF warrant officer (tens of thousands of them out there) that spend a few years in the CIA as a line level paramilitary officer (again, thousands of them out there).. that failed twice at an attempt at politics.. that got hired to run a small to mid sized government organization that rarely makes the news for anything and is rarely talked out at all outside of a very small circle in DC (about 8700 of those guys serving at any given time)..

If he wasnt Shannon Kents husband and the author of a book.. no one would know his name.. no one would care about the job he had in DC.. and his resignation in protest wouldnt have even made the local news, much less the national news..

 

[LivingTheDream]

On this one I think this IR policies are flopping.

The public and ask and refusal is a loss. And the refusal was almost guaranteed because his personal insults and style of commenting on foreign powers has made helping him politically toxic in most western democracies. His own poor conduct has made it just about impossible for leaders in other countries to help him. In Canada, looking like you are onside with Trump would be close to political suicide and I bet it is similar in the larger european economies as well. His style and undisciplined language has hurt him.

It seems like he is finally learning one of Churchill's maxims "There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them".

You think a guy who claims so much deal making experience might realize that if you want to ask other parties for assistance that you just might want to have built up some good will with them first. Germany and others may be paying high gas prices, but high gas prices are not going to help Trump in November.

I actually think this is a win win for Trump. If they say we will provide escorts then great. Odds are greater than 90% they will say no, which gives him another talking point about how they just want the benefits and for the US to do the work, they are too weak to look out for their own interests, etc.

Think back to the Greenland debacle, when everyone one saying why does Trump want Greenland all he has to do is ask, now Trump can say when I asked for help no one showed up.

I do agree with you that higher gas prices are not good for the mid terms.

 

[Wheels]

For those defending Joe Kent. Here is a post from a year ago. Evidently Kent thought Iran was targeting Trump. Is there a more immanent threat than that. Just last week a jury in New York convicted an Iranian agent, Asif Merchant of attempting to assassinate American politicians including Trump.

Kent begged to get his job last year. Now he is singing a different tune. It makes a person wonder if the Peter Principle applies and he was over his head and is now trying to get a guest spot at CNN on the way out the door.

 

[RLD]

I actually think this is a win win for Trump. If they say we will provide escorts then great. Odds are greater than 90% they will say no, which gives him another talking point about how they just want the benefits and for the US to do the work, they are too weak to look out for their own interests, etc.

Think back to the Greenland debacle, when everyone one saying why does Trump want Greenland all he has to do is ask, now Trump can say when I asked for help no one showed up.

I do agree with you that higher gas prices are not good for the mid terms.

I could almost stretch to that argument if it only involved Europe. You might know better than I, is the American voter going to change their vote based on European participation in the Strait? I don't know about that. Is there a legit domestic audience for that?

But publicly asking China for help on anything does not project strength.

 

[mdwest]

I don't except your premise that the U.S. was getting hosed by the world. You had a balance of trade problem because your country had shit tons of money and were buying everybody's else's stuff. You built a super successful consumer nation and you were doing what you built it to do, consume. American had the money, they wanted to spend it. Tragic.

Dont misunderstand... I dont believe things were all that bad... I am a pretty serious consumer myself.. and was doing pretty well (still am honestly) with all of the "trade imbalances" in place..

That said, there is no denying that D administrations are historically weak on trade.. Jimmy Carter, Barak Obama, Clinton, and Biden did us no favors over the last 50 years... But.. thats our problem.. and I didnt think we needed to regain all of the lost ground from a 50 year period in the first 60 days of the new administration...

But... talk to joe six-pack walking the streets of conservative america... he's convinced the "commies" in Europe and the mexicans and the snow-mexicans have been ripping him off egregiously since the day he was born.. and its all THEIR fault.. rather than acknowledging that anything that may or may not be right in this world is owned by everyone involved to one degree or another..

Im also of the opinion that people are outrageously short sighted.. everyone thought the hippies of the 60's were going to be the end of the world.. then drug addicted 70's and the advancement of communism was going to wipe out western society within a matter of years.. hell, the Y2K bug was going to cause society to collapse.. COVID was going to be the end of it all.. etc..etc..

People tend to look at the here and now and cant be bothered to see anything past the tip of their nose..

Rather than focusing on Trump and making decisions that are going to impact several decades moving forward.. you'd think both Americans (internally) and everyone else (externally) would see that its 4 years.. he literally cant be in office after 2028.. and.. he didnt manage to destroy the world the last time he was in office..

So.. think strategically... and figure out how to be best positioned in 2028 rather than worrying about whether or not the man wears a hat to a funeral in 2026...

Hes an asshole... no one denies it... so what????

Hes an asshole that wont be in office in 2.5 years...

While I keep my finger on the pulse of whats going on in my orbit today.. I tend to focus much more on how Im going to influence my orbit and whats in it next year, 5 years from now, 10 years from now, etc...

I find that usually provides substantially better results..

 

[mdwest]

I could almost stretch to that argument if it only involved Europe. You might know better than I, is the American voter going to change their vote based on European participation in the Strait? I don't know about that. Is there a legit domestic audience for that?

But publicly asking China for help on anything does not project strength.

The typical American voter is MUCH more shallow than that..

What is going to determine their vote is their wallet... They could care less about what Europe is doing, what Europe is happy or pissed about, etc..

They'll pay $4 a gallon for gas.. they paid more than that for a couple of years under Biden.. and a couple of years under Obama...

But other aspects of the economy have to improve.. or.. Trump has to convince them that were he not in office and R's not in control of Capital Hill that things would be substantially worse..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Venezuela was more about China, Russia and N.K influence in our hemisphere. Look how quickly Cuba is on the ropes without Venezuela. China has signals intelligence gathering platforms in Cuba. On and on. It’s China.

Just as the Iran operation has the side benefit of punching China in the face.

Rubio is most likely telling China. This is gonna happen one way or another. You might as well be on board and keep getting your Iranian oil. If you make us push it till the end you won’t get your oil because we’ll destroy all production capabilities and then we will control the Straits anyway.

 

[Pondoro]

We can agree on this Dave.. Trump is an asshole..

 

[RLD]

Dont misunderstand... I dont believe things were all that bad... I am a pretty serious consumer myself.. and was doing pretty well (still am honestly) with all of the "trade imbalances" in place..

That said, there is no denying that D administrations are historically weak on trade.. Jimmy Carter, Barak Obama, Clinton, and Biden did us no favors over the last 50 years... But.. thats our problem.. and I didnt think we needed to regain all of the lost ground from a 50 year period in the first 60 days of the new administration...

But... talk to joe six-pack walking the streets of conservative america... he's convinced the "commies" in Europe and the mexicans and the snow-mexicans have been ripping him off egregiously since the day he was born.. and its all THEIR fault.. rather than acknowledging that anything that may or may not be right in this world is owned by everyone involved to one degree or another..

Im also of the opinion that people are outrageously short sighted.. everyone thought the hippies of the 60's were going to be the end of the world.. then drug addicted 70's and the advancement of communism was going to wipe out western society within a matter of years.. hell, the Y2K bug was going to cause society to collapse.. COVID was going to be the end of it all.. etc..etc..

People tend to look at the here and now and cant be bothered to see anything past the tip of their nose..

Rather than focusing on Trump and making decisions that are going to impact several decades moving forward.. you'd think both Americans (internally) and everyone else (externally) would see that its 4 years.. he literally cant be in office after 2028.. and.. he didnt manage to destroy the world the last time he was in office..

So.. think strategically... and figure out how to be best positioned in 2028 rather than worrying about whether or not the man wears a hat to a funeral in 2026...

Hes an asshole... no one denies it... so what????

Hes an asshole that wont be in office in 2.5 years...

While I keep my finger on the pulse of whats going on in my orbit today.. I tend to focus much more on how Im going to influence my orbit and whats in it next year, 5 years from now, 10 years from now, etc...

I find that usually provides substantially better results..

I'm going about 90% of the way with you on this whole post. Very well reasoned indeed.

But there is a but, and it's a big but (as opposed to a big butt).

The but is that we used to be able to do those long term plans within certain parameters, understanding that our counterparts in the United States would act within certain bounds. There was plenty of variability at play, but Trump tossed all of those bounds out the window. Fair enough, he's entitled to (until SCOTUS tells him otherwise because congress currently in lap dog mode).

And you are right Trump only has 2.5 years left. But there is no guarantee that the next President will be less of an asshole. Trump has proven that his formula works in American electoral politics and others might actually believe in Trumpism or they just might want to emulate it to get elected.

Unfortunately the world's future planning now has to include the possibility that the next one might just be another Trump. We might be pleasantly surprised, we might get another Reagan or even a Bush, but if we plan on another co-operative partner and we get another Trump then we will have made a critical error. Our forward planning has to include the very real risk that these trends might run much longer than the current administration. Doesn't it? Canada's and other countries turning away from the United States, if they can, is not just to deal with Trump, it provides insurance against a future Trump.

 

[Wheels]

Regarding allied help in the Strait of Hormuz. If NATO looses Lindsey Graham they loose their biggest cheerleader in the Senate.

Most of NATO supports a non NATO country in Ukraine but doesn’t support a NATO country in the gulf. Trump is putting the countries on record.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2033924181763481974