Politics

It is hard to fight with rocks against folks armed with automatic weapons and armored personnel carriers. They tried and 35K died.

I don’t have answers though.
Hopefully there’s enough pre Ayatollah people still alive that know how prosperous a free Iran can be and they can convince the younger generation that it would be worth fighting for.
My fear is that most were killed by the regime or just passed from old age .
Time will tell but I’m not overly confident.
 
It is hard to fight with rocks against folks armed with automatic weapons and armored personnel carriers. They tried and 35K died.

I don’t have answers though.

I heard the figure was 50K+

They didn't have the real figures because of the internet blackout. We may never know.

I don't have any answers either. However, when someone says this is ridiculous, unnecessary, etc. I remind them of the 50k figure. There are ulterior motives as well, of course. But trying to stop the mass murder is at least a decent enough reason to say this was justified.
 
Some have asked, why did the President wait for 30+ thousand to be killed before acting--I say that those persons do not understand that an operation of this size, scope, and need for the very latest actionable intelligence does not turn on a dime. I suspect that Trump put things in motion as soon as he promised to come to their aid.
In the movie Braveheart, King Edward had already sent troops north at the very time he negotiated for the princess to meet Wallace.
 
It is hard to fight with rocks against folks armed with automatic weapons and armored personnel carriers. They tried and 35K died.

I don’t have answers though.
If a people are not willing to live under an oppressive and murderous regime, they will fight with whatever they have, or whatever they can build, buy or steal. Throughout history, there have been hundreds of groups that fought against oppressive Governments, or invading armies.

Iran is no more or less brutal than any other in dealing with groups that threaten it, yet there has been almost zero armed resistance in the last 47 years. There is no shortage of cheap weapons in that part of the World, and smuggling through the mountains and deserts isn't new to the region, yet there is no armed resistance group, inside or outside of Iran that anyone can name.

Every key intelligence indicator tells me they are waiting for someone else to come in and do the job, which is exactly why no outside force should lift a finger to liberate them.

If I'm wrong, I'll buy Africa Hunting hat's for everybody at the SCI dinner next year!
 
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If a people are not willing to live under an oppressive and murderous regime, they will fight with whatever they have, or whatever they can build, buy or steal. Throughout history, there have been hundreds of groups that fought against oppressive Governments, or invading armies.

Iran is no more or less brutal than any other in dealing with groups that threaten it, yet there has been almost zero armed resistance in the last 47 years. There is no shortage of cheap weapons in that part of the World, and smuggling through the mountains and deserts isn't new to the region, yet there is no armed resistance group, inside or outside of Iran that anyone can name.

Every key intelligence indicator tells me they are waiting for someone else to come in and do the job, which is exactly why no outside force should lift a finger to liberate them.

If I'm wrong, I'll buy Africa Hunting hat's for everybody at the SCI dinner next year!
I have no insider information, but were I to place a bet on the a likely counter revolutionary organization with the means to act, it would be the Iranian Army. They have 350-400,000 men under arms and many have chaffed under the Revolutionary Guard. Do enough damage to the regime and the Guard and the right colonel or general might act. That would not represent the birth of a Jeffersonian democracy, but it could be a pragmatic regime without the revolutionary religious fervor of the current one.
 
I have no insider information, but were I to place a bet on the a likely counter revolutionary organization with the means to act, it would be the Iranian Army. They have 350-400,000 men under arms and many have chaffed under the Revolutionary Guard. Do enough damage to the regime and the Guard and the right colonel or general might act. That would not represent the birth of a Jeffersonian democracy, but it could be a pragmatic regime without the revolutionary religious fervor of the current one.

Honestly this is why I find it hard to believe the Iranian government has killed 50k (even 30k for that matter) protestors in the last 2-3 months of protests....

I'm supposed to believe more civilians have been gunned down in Tehran by Iranian police and IRGC than military deaths at Guadalcanal? And no Iranian military commanders have taken control of the country? Seems unlikely.
 
Honestly this is why I find it hard to believe the Iranian government has killed 50k (even 30k for that matter) protestors in the last 2-3 months of protests....

I'm supposed to believe more civilians have been gunned down in Tehran by Iranian police and IRGC than military deaths at Guadalcanal? And no Iranian military commanders have taken control of the country? Seems unlikely.
It wouldn't be hard with a unarmed populous and armed men dedicated to the governments dictates.
 
If a people are not willing to live under an oppressive and murderous regime, they will fight with whatever they have, or whatever they can build, buy or steal. Throughout history, there have been hundreds of groups that fought against oppressive Governments, or invading armies.

Iran is no more or less brutal than any other in dealing with groups that threaten it, yet there has been almost zero armed resistance in the last 47 years. There is no shortage of cheap weapons in that part of the World, and smuggling through the mountains and deserts isn't new to the region, yet there is no armed resistance group, inside or outside of Iran that anyone can name.

Every key intelligence indicator tells me they are waiting for someone else to come in and do the job, which is exactly why no outside force should lift a finger to liberate them.

If I'm wrong, I'll buy Africa Hunting hat's for everybody at the SCI dinner next year!

There are videos circulating online before we started bombing of some of the not so major cities where citizens were taking out some of the police/military (I cant tell the difference) during the protests. There is also videos where the IRGC personnel were obviously beaten and had their head smashed in. I would say there is a will to fight.

I would say that 30k to 50k is probably a low number, you had hundreds of thousands, if not millions of protesters with no comms and no organized leader. As mentioned there are over 400k troops/guard that had the orders to make it bloody and make it painful so they never want to rise up again. Not sure I find it that hard to believe that for every 8 soldiers only 1 protester was killed.
 
The fact they shot a missile into a hotel in Dubai is still blowing my mind. I am not saying the UAE are the cleanest sheet in the drawer. They are not one you want to be doing that to.
I saw an interview with some Iran official on BBC tv news last night who said there were US troops in the hotel! That’s why it was hit. To other hits answer that oh those were CIA headquarters in the area.
If I could find the interview I’d post it.

After Spike T guardian post above I can understand why the gulf states are getting pissed with reckless drone and missiles.
 
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And that will be exactly what Trump says when the bombing campaign ends in 3-4 weeks...

"we gave them the chance to re-take their nation... they apparently dont want it bad enough to participate.... we did accomplish all of our objectives though... their primary source of income, oil, has been set back for years.. its going to take a few billion dollars of Chinese investment and at least 3-5 years of digging out from under the rubble before Beijing gets another barrel of Iranian oil... and without money, Iran doesnt have much to offer the Houthis, Hamas, or Hezbollah.. we wont be hearing much from them for a while.. and... Irans missile stockpiles and drone stockpiles are all either underneath a mountain of rubble.. or have been expended.. theyre really only a threat to their own people now... and their own people dont seem to want permanent change bad enough.. so... we're out..."

 

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