Politics

[Corey0372]

Nah , I want him as Cuba´s President, that would be nice

El Caudillo del Cubazuela?

hmmmmm...

Yes, yes I like that a lot. Oil, gold, tobacco, Ana de Armas..... I'm in.

Arriba Rubio!

 

[Corey0372]

What exactly is the UN going to do? Condemn the US? Tell the world that the orange man is bad?

 

[Red Leg]

With respect, that's not entirely how I remember it, because you are leaving out one very important part:

Up front, I am no fan of that particular SecDef. But you can't let SecState off the hook for that one. Remember there was no love lost between the two, and SecState let it be known that the "breaking" was a DoD function, but the "rebuilding" properly belonged to the DoS. SecDef, in a fit of pique, said "OK, your ball (or words to that effect)" and directed his department to stop planning. Of course, SecState forgot, or did not know (ok, full disclosure: he's not on my Christmas Card list either) that DoS has very little training in that area. It doesn't help that the guy he did put in charge has publicly stated he wouldn't have changed a thing. And here we are.

If memory serves, the first six to eight weeks were reasonably stable. Giving those to the east of Iraq time to spin up the IGRC. DoS wouldn't have changed a thing, and SecDef was too busy doing the "I told you so", and blunder followed blunder.

See also the need to go into Falujah twice.

But I'm not bitter....

You are exactly right. That would be the traditional way it should have been managed. Had it been so, I suspect the last twenty years may have looked far different.

I believe you have drawn the opposite conclusion from what happened, and I am confident most of the historians of the period would agree with me. I should also note my comments will also incorporate my own experiences during those months where I not only worked these issues with Congress, but was also the senior uniformed Arabist in the building.

Powell did indeed caution the President prior to the invasion with respect to post conflict responsibility as did the Army Chief of Staff with separate concerns expressed to the SECDEF and DEPSECDEF. None of those cautions or recommendations reflected any intent to evade responsibility. Rather, the intent was to insure all aspects of the invasion were fully vetted. Indeed, the State Department under Powell and Richard Armitage, both with extensive Middle East Experience and connections, had initiated the "Future of Iraq Project" in 2002, which involved exile groups and experts, and had drafted initial detailed post-conflict governance, security, and reconstruction plans.

Rumsfeld saw State involvement as a challenge to his authority as he did Army concerns about the size of the force and lack of post conflict preparation. He and Cheney believed that the invasion would be quickly accomplished and the State planning would involve too great a commitment. In this, they were encouraged by both the Israeli government and an Iraqi exile by the name of Ahmed Chalabi who promised that the Iraqi people, particularly the Shia, would support the coalition invasion. That was nonsense anyone with any understanding of Iraq in the immediate aftermath of the Gulf War could easily dispute.

In any case, Rumsfeld did indeed successfully ally himself with Vice President Cheney who also embraced this best case pipedream. Over a period of months, they effectively outmaneuvered Powell to ensure that the Department of Defense retained primary control over post-invasion operations and reconstruction in Iraq. This dynamic played out through a combination of internal power struggles, exclusionary decision-making, and the Bush administration's broader aversion to extensive nation-building efforts, which favored the Pentagon's optimistic scenarios over the State Department's more cautious planning dooming the country to the very thing they wished to avoid.

As a result, the Future of Iraq project was shelved, and primary post conflict planning devolved to Under Secretary of Defense Douglas Feith who was professionally woefully unprepared for such a task. Like his boss, he relied on unrealistic assumptions that led to no adequate planning and no force sufficient to manage the devolution of the state following the collapse of the Baathist regime.

Sadly, at the same, in Tommy Franks, we had a Combatant Commander who was equally unprepared to think beyond the immediate mission set, and certainly not prepared to challenge any assumptions arising in Washington in spite of cautionary recommendations of his own regional experts.

I could go on, but below is a short AI summation of the general research into the subject to date. I will add that unlike you I am a huge admirer of Colin Powell and believe Donald Rumsfeld has the blood on his hands of far too many American Servicemen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Powell did not refuse to take on the responsibility; in fact, he actively advocated for greater State Department involvement and warned about the risks of inadequate planning. As we noted, he did invoke the "Pottery Barn rule" in briefings with President Bush, emphasizing that the U.S. would "own" the broken pieces of Iraq after the invasion. His department was primed to assume that mission.

slate.com
Powell also pushed for more troops to stabilize the country post-invasion, arguing to Bush, Rumsfeld, and General Tommy Franks that the initial force was sufficient for toppling Saddam but not for controlling the ensuing chaos or preventing an insurgency.

washingtonexaminer.com
These concerns were overruled, partly due to Rumsfeld's influence and the administration's preference for a leaner military footprint. Key to this outmaneuvering were secretive processes that excluded Powell. For instance, Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary Paul Wolfowitz held private meetings on planning a front against Iraq shortly after 9/11, deliberately keeping Powell out.

en.wikipedia.org
Lawrence Wilkerson, Powell's chief of staff, later described a "cabal" between Cheney and Rumsfeld that hijacked critical decisions on post-war occupation and prisoner handling without input from the broader bureaucracy, including State.

pbs.org
Rumsfeld also withheld key intelligence assessments from Powell that could have undermined the case for war, further marginalizing him.

politico.eu
In the end, the Pentagon's control contributed to the disorganized occupation, with decisions like disbanding the Iraqi army and extreme de-Baathification exacerbating instability—outcomes Powell had sought to avoid through more collaborative planning.

brookings.edu
While Powell remained in his role and even presented the flawed WMD case to the U.N. in 2003 (a move engineered by Cheney to leverage Powell's credibility), he did not publicly challenge the war's execution until after leaving office in 2005.

 

[Pheroze]

What I find hysterical about that is…

To what end?

What exactly is the UN going to do? Condemn the US? Tell the world that the orange man is bad?

They’ve been doing that for years…

The US pays for 22% of the total UN budget, and 25% of global peacekeeping… 1 country paying 1/4 of all of the organizations bills…

Does anyone think the UN would go any further than shaking its finger and stomping its feet like a child?

And does anyone really believe that the US really gives a shit? Or that Trump gives a shit?

Just another waste of time and money…

I am wondering if the UN is losing legitimacy because membership constrains the actions of those who abide by the rules. I think Trump previously didn't mind North Korea because they stayed in their sand box. But when countries mess about with international disorder it seems to me they are no longer legitimate members of an international order. Like a criminal out on bail who then reoffends. You lose privileges.

So then what are the “rules”. Personally, I don’t see how societies that believe in freedom and democracy can live easily with societies that don't. The concepts are incompatible and any club that blends the two will only weaken democracies. In my mind this is why NATO works where the UN is a joke.

 

[fourfive8]

The RINOS, Dems and Libtards are starting to chant, “Let the bus driver man go!”

 

[Wheels]

Does the Maduro capture have something to do with drugs. Probably so.

Does the Maduro capture have something to do with oil. Probably so.

Does the Maduro capture have something to do with isolating Russia China and Cuba in the western hemisphere. Probably so.

One area that is not being talked about is the 2020 election. Is there a connection. We will have to wait and see.

Here is a Lou Dobbs news story from 2006 regarding Venezuelan ownership of American voting machines. Will the names Smartmatic and Domminion start making it into news stories. We will have to wait and see. Perhaps there is nothing here but it is easy to see Trump feeling like the election was taken from him responding through the events we have seen this weekend.

 

[spike.t]

What I find hysterical about that is…

To what end?

What exactly is the UN going to do? Condemn the US? Tell the world that the orange man is bad?

They’ve been doing that for years…

The US pays for 22% of the total UN budget, and 25% of global peacekeeping… 1 country paying 1/4 of all of the organizations bills…

Does anyone think the UN would go any further than shaking its finger and stomping its feet like a child?

And does anyone really believe that the US really gives a shit? Or that Trump gives a shit?

Just another waste of time and money…

Thought the usa hadn't paid its shit in years .. .

 

[Ontario Hunter]

I see Rubio now says the US definitely will NOT govern Venzuela. Well, that really didn't take a crystal ball to predict. Trump talking out his arse as usual. Honestly, why does anyone listen to a thing he says anymore? Donald, go take a Tylenol and wash it down with a shot of Lysol.

 

[Ontario Hunter]

Does the Maduro capture have something to do with drugs. Probably so.

Does the Maduro capture have something to do with oil. Probably so.

Does the Maduro capture have something to do with isolating Russia China and Cuba in the western hemisphere. Probably so.

One area that is not being talked about is the 2020 election. Is there a connection. We will have to wait and see.

Here is a Lou Dobbs news story from 2006 regarding Venezuelan ownership of American voting machines. Will the names Smartmatic and Domminion start making it into news stories. We will have to wait and see. Perhaps there is nothing here but it is easy to see Trump feeling like the election was taken from him responding through the events we have seen this weekend.

That conspiracy theory won the gold medal for ludicrousness. Also won Dominion Voting Machine Co a gigantic award in litigation court. Case closed.

 

[WAB]

He's doing even MORE than he said he would do.

He never said he would tear down half of the White House to build himself a golden ballroom.

He never said that he would declare people who disagreed with him terrorists and America-haters.

He never said he would blow up a bunch of boats that might have been drug smugglers.

He never said that he would help Netanyahu mass murder Palestinians.

He never said he would tell his Justice Dept. to give him $230 million dollars.

He never said he would accept a $400 million dollar plane from Qatar that will cost a billion dollars to be fixed up to his standards.

Oh, he's been a busy, busy little president.

I’m afraid that you live in an alternate reality of half truths and falsehoods. I’m not a Trump lover, but at least fact check your assertions.

 

[Betterinthebush]

I’m afraid that you live in an alternate reality of half truths and falsehoods. I’m not a Trump lover, but at least fact check your assertions.

I thought @Frostbite got taken out behind the woodshed and put down. Is it resurrected?

 

[Sideshow]

Considering that removing Maduro from power hurts Russia both economically and functionally… I’d say your comment either means you are completely oblivious and ignorant of the situation… or purposefully trolling for no other reason than to show your ass in public..

Either way… it’s pretty unbecoming…

And that’s coming from someone that is clearly not a great fan of Trump…

I’ll chuck a smile face in there just to mix it up

 

[Sideshow]

My estimate:
Yes, but not as an excuse. There must have been some diplomatic deals made not made public.
For example, China sold their interests in Panama, without a flinch. Basically within 24 hours.

My opinion is that we are witnessing tectonic political global changes, from mono polar world of pax americana, to multi polar world, with divided spheres on interest of major global powers.

In 20th century this caused two world wars.
Modern difference is nuclear deterrent, which makes major powers to be more cautions in their multilateral relations. Which gives us a chance to avoid major conflict.

Taiwan?
So, when Mao took China mainland, Chang Kei Shek moved to Taiwan, as goverment in exile and declared de iure (but not de facto) his goverment to be goverment for China mainland and Taiwan as one country .
Mao claimed the same.
So, it is not disputable that Taiwan and China are one country. It is the question of ruling regime here and there.
President Nixon accepted one China principle. It stayed like that
The rest we know from daily news, and developing political military tensions.

Besides,
China had similar things elsewhere, Hong Kong for example.
For China it is not unusual to have "special case provinces", but entire international political focus makes Taiwan high political tensions live for decades.
For Hong Kong they just waited their 156 years, to take over, UK pulled out, China took over, and Hong Kong still has some autonomy, but it is Chinese on the end

Chinese culture and attitude and philosophy is different than western.
Western approach is short term, like in one political term 4 years, or project investement turnover, or what will be in next decade?

China is one of the oldest countries in the World, 5000 years old. Older then Chrisitanity for example.
Chinese philosophy sees a thousand years as a blink of an eye. Decade is nothing. For Honk Kong they took their time, 156 years to wait, not loosing focus and time was never an object, and no issue. Diplomacy worked. No bullet fired.

So, in short term I dont think they will provoke any conflict. But they may take a military posture. However they might wait next 100 years, to make political and de facto move on Taiwan.
Time means nothing in Chinese philosophy, and in the same time global politics is very dynamic. Eventually they will get to politically convenient time to make the move

Yes but one fundamental difference is the people of Taiwan are Chinese so therefore have the same similar mindset and culture so maybe checkmate?

 

[spike.t]

I am wondering if the UN is losing legitimacy because membership constrains the actions of those who abide by the rules. I think Trump previously didn't mind North Korea because they stayed in their sand box. But when countries mess about with international disorder it seems to me they are no longer legitimate members of an international order. Like a criminal out on bail who then reoffends. You lose privileges.

So then what are the “rules”. Personally, I don’t see how societies that believe in freedom and democracy can live easily with societies that don't. The concepts are incompatible and any club that blends the two will only weaken democracies. In my mind this is why NATO works where the UN is a joke.

Mmm....been saying UN is a waste of space for years.....

 

[skydiver386]

So, if Venezuela has 17.3 Billion in oil reserves, how many Somali Daycares could we open if we sold the oil to China and Cuba at a 50% discount?

 

[spike.t]

Yes but one fundamental difference is the people of Taiwan are Chinese so therefore have the same similar mindset and culture so maybe checkmate?

Mmmm ethnic Taiwanese might take exception to that.....

Google Search

 

[WAB]

So, if Venezuela has 17.3 Billion in oil reserves, how many Somali Daycares could we open if we sold the oil to China and Cuba at a 50% discount?

If the Minnesota data is any indication, not that many, they are apparently incredibly expensive!

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Here's why @WAB ... (I hope the link works)

533K views · 5.3K reactions | Welcome To Tampon Tim's Walz Daycare!! #tampontim #somalia #minnesota #nickshirley #trumpsupporters | Brian Beckhorn

Welcome To Tampon Tim's Walz Daycare!! #tampontim #somalia #minnesota #nickshirley #trumpsupporters

www.facebook.com

 

[Betterinthebush]

So, if Venezuela has 17.3 Billion in oil reserves, how many Somali Daycares could we open if we sold the oil to China and Cuba at a 50% discount?

173. Exactly.

 

[Brent in Az]

MTG is criticizing Maduros arrest.
If anything, the echo chamber is comical.