Politics

[PHOENIX PHIL]

@WAB, I'm very interested in your thoughts on this being perhaps the AH go to guy regarding oil. With the UAE pulling out of OPEC, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the cartel? The war with Iran will conclude sooner or later, and when it does it seems like the price of oil will plummet with this UAE development adding fuel to the fire, pun somewhat intended.

 

[spike.t]

North Korea: Kim Jong Un praises troops who 'self-blasted' to avoid capture

It confirms suspicions that North Korean soldiers are being told to detonate their grenades to kill themselves.

www.bbc.com

 

[spike.t]

@WAB, I'm very interested in your thoughts on this being perhaps the AH go to guy regarding oil. With the UAE pulling out of OPEC, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the cartel? The war with Iran will conclude sooner or later, and when it does it seems like the price of oil will plummet with this UAE development adding fuel to the fire, pun somewhat intended.

Bit of info here....

Why the UAE's exit from Opec is a big deal

It will have little effect on the current oil blockades, but it could change everything afterwards.

www.bbc.com

 

[Altitude sickness]

@WAB, I'm very interested in your thoughts on this being perhaps the AH go to guy regarding oil. With the UAE pulling out of OPEC, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the cartel? The war with Iran will conclude sooner or later, and when it does it seems like the price of oil will plummet with this UAE development adding fuel to the fire, pun somewhat intended.

I won’t pretend to have oil industry expertise that several AH members have.

The oil is the primary engine of UAE ( for now). But the UAE chassis is very
complicated.

The UAE was meddling in Yemen.

Below are the real and deeper issues than the OPEC headlines point to.

The 30 December 2025 Saudi airstrikes and the ultimatum to UAE forces

Yemen is the arena, not the cause, of the Saudi–UAE dispute

Continental vs maritime power in the Arabian Peninsula

The British influence on the Emirati state

The Buraimi Oasis dispute

Tribal allegiance and ‘weird borders’ in Gulf geopolitics

the UAE tolerates breakaway regions and Saudi Arabia cannot

Hopefully this gets contained.

 

[Altitude sickness]

 

[spike.t]

 

[Brent in Az]

Ironic, how many of the people calling Trump a dictator are the ones who wanted Obama to have a 3rd term to keep him in power.

 

[Hunt anything]

USSC strikes down Louisiana minority district as it was drawn too heavily on race.
This opens up the redrawing of districts here in Alabama as the courts said that a second minority majority must be drawn.

 

[AJ Peacock]

USSC strikes down Louisiana minority district as it was drawn too heavily on race.
This opens up the redrawing of districts here in Alabama as the courts said that a second minority majority must be drawn.

I just heard that it will likely impact around 2 dozen districts across the southeast.

AJ

 

[Wheels]

This case has a little better chance of going to trial than the other charges against him that were dropped. I think it was brought in Eastern North Carolina where they are somewhat conservative.

To me this case looks like leverage.

The Ft Pierce GJ has been going on for awhile regarding Russiagate and probably Spygate. Comey can cooperate with DOJ regarding those cases or take his chances in a primarily red federal district in NC for a coinflip trial.

 

[Wheels]

A reminder for all of us to not post stupid stuff on social media.

 

[Wheels]

SCOTUS decision today could prove significant in the midterms.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2049493589047066633

 

[mdwest]

SCOTUS decision today could prove significant in the midterms.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2049493589047066633

Holy crap.. that has the potential to be a huge game changer..

Combine that with what Desantis is attempting to accomplish in FL.. and it might be several election cycles before the D's have a shot at taking he house again..

Im not completely confident of the impact yet.. its almost certain LA will redraw their map immediately since this was a LA case.. but that only changes the potential on 1 seat..

If the other states jump on board that have been effected by this, and move quickly.. it could make a difference in as many as 12 seats..

 

[AJ Peacock]

Holy crap.. that has the potential to be a huge game changer..

Combine that with what Desantis is attempting to accomplish in FL.. and it might be several election cycles before the D's have a shot at taking he house again..

Im not completely confident of the impact yet.. its almost certain LA will redraw their map immediately since this was a LA case.. but that only changes the potential on 1 seat..

If the other states jump on board that have been effected by this, and move quickly.. it could make a difference in as many as 12 seats..

Yes!, then the census will make some more permanent changes in 2030.

AJ

 

[Tanks]

James Comey indicted on 2 felony counts of threatening cause harm to a sitting president…… apparently “86-47” didn’t sit well with a federal grand jury….

This is a reach. I doubt if they will have a sympathetic jury for the prosecution.

 

[mdwest]

Yes!, then the census will make some more permanent changes in 2030.

AJ

I obviously havent done the research or had time to really consider whats being said yet... but...

AI seems to think the impact on the mid terms will be somewhere between 1-12 seats (depending on how quickly red states move, whether they are challenged in the courts, etc)...

but the long term impact will be as many as 27 seats.. it cites that some states based on their state systems dont have time to make changes before the mid terms, some need a census to make their play, etc.. etc..

27... that is substantial..

Im betting Hakeem Jefferies is shitting himself right now trying to figure out a new path that puts him in the speaker seat in November.. his old path just got a pretty big hole punched in it..

 

[Brent in Az]

Jeffries behind a microphone whining like a little b***h in ....3....2....1

 

[mdwest]

This is a reach. I doubt if they will have a sympathetic jury for the prosecution.

While Im sure the Trump administration would LOVE to see Comey locked up, Im not sure thats really the goal.. they know the chances of a "win" under those terms are pretty slim I would think..

But..

They can make an example out of him.. and they can bleed him dry..

Comeys personal net worth is supposedly about $16M..

For a trial this size/scale.. youre looking at $2-$3M to defend IF the case resolves before trial..

$4-$6M if it proceeds through pre-trial motions and hearings..

$7-$10M if it goes through the process of a full jury trial..

Assume he is found innocent after all of that... that fat bank account he worked his entire life to build gets hit super hard.. and those "fun" retirement years where he thought he could take long walks on the beach and do an occasional MSNBC interview and bash trump are suddenly not so fun at all..

And since Comey is a bit of a pariah to both the left and the right.. I wouldnt expect to see many people on the opposing side of the aisle rushing to his aid or giving him much support on TV, etc.. that could be personal career suicide for all but the extreme fringe folks..

Were I other left wingers otherwise inclined to poke the Trump bear, after theyre done beating the hell out of Comey for the next 6-18 months.. I might think twice before I acted like a total idiot and spelled out a "threat" with some sea shells on a beach...

Theres got to be a point where people ask.. was it worth it?

I think in this case the process is the punishment they are seeking..

 

[Wheels]

This is a reach. I doubt if they will have a sympathetic jury for the prosecution.

All we are seeing is the seashells, which seems fairly weak. What we don’t know is the rest of the evidence. What was on Comey’s phone and computer. What will others testify to Comeys personal conversations. Etc.

Again, I look at this case as leverage for his cooperation against Brennan and others in Ft Pierce.

 

[Brent in Az]

If they can't get any of these swamp rats behind bars, at least try and bankrupt them like the Biden administration did to many Trump associates, and Rudy Giuliani.