Politics

[Red Leg]

2016 taught me to never trust polls. If you need evidence just let me know. I wouldn’t consider myself a Trumpster, but I’m definitely a conservative. I don’t fear Kennedy taking Republican votes. He would undoubtedly do more damage to Biden as you look at his approval ratings even among Democrats.

Let's see I have a choice of a Marsist Poll which has had high accuracy ratings for the last two election cycles or your conclusion that "he would undoubtedly do more damage to Biden."

I think I would go with Marsist. There are a lot of Republicans who can no longer abide Donald Trump. That doesn't mean he can't win, but it does likely mean he can't afford any erosion of the support he had 2020.

And before anyone gets too exercised over FiveThirtyEight or Bloomberg, that assessment was done after those elections. I posted it here because it represents a factual input that is likely worth considering. I know many prefer this discussion to be an echo chamber, so feel free to reject it.

The Marist Poll is conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New Yorker. The institute was founded in 1978 as a college-based research center conducting local, state, and national polls.[1]

Bloomberg Politics and FiveThirtyEight rated The Marist Poll as a top pollster for its accuracy in 2016 and 2020, respectively

 

[DillonG]

Let's see I have a choice of a Marsist Poll which has had high accuracy ratings for the last two election cycles or your conclusion that "he would undoubtedly do more damage to Biden."

I think I would go with Marsist. There are a lot of Republicans who can no longer abide Donald Trump. That doesn't mean he can't win, but it does likely mean he can't afford any erosion of the support he had 2020.

And before anyone gets too exercised over FiveThirtyEight or Bloomberg, that assessment was done after those elections. I posted it here because it represents a factual input that is likely worth considering. I know many prefer this discussion to be an echo chamber, so feel free to reject it.


The Marist Poll is conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, New Yorker. The institute was founded in 1978 as a college-based research center conducting local, state, and national polls.[1]

Bloomberg Politics and FiveThirtyEight rated The Marist Poll as a top pollster for its accuracy in 2016 and 2020, respectively

I believe you completely ignored the fact that even main stream Democrats now disapprove of Biden. Who do you think they will vote for? Any Republican or a Kennedy? If Biden doesn’t improve his approval with his base; undoubtedly they will turn to Kennedy (or Newsome when he enters). While Trump definitely has a base of “anti-trump” voters. He also has a base that will always vote for him.

He could easily pull the Reagan and ask the public if they were happier with the state of the country when he was in charge or Biden. That would pull independents. How many? I cannot answer. Neither can any poll accurately. Again, 2016 proved that point. Polls are only as good as respondents. Marist, like any other business, stock, professional, or government won’t always be exactly correct all the time. I’m not aware of them as polls are not interesting to me. They are great for media to hype based on what political party they favor.

 

[Hunt anything]

458, to me you make a lot of

What the heck, since everyone can speculate including self proclaimed experts, I'll submit one more speculative observation on the errant rocket parking lot hit. That impact area damage does not look like it was caused by a very large explosive. The elongated shallow angle impact gouge and smear is relatively small. Could that have been a fairly large rocket, was carrying a payload of gasoline with something like an RPG in the nose to create an aerosol and ignite it upon impact? That might explain the burned vehicles with very little structural damage in the area of the impact. In effect a really big Molotov cocktail ?? Additionally, a liquid payload shifting or sloshing rearward could explain some of the instability shown by that rocket in flight. All pure speculation on my part

sense, I have NO BDA experience but I saw no impact crater and a bunch of burned out cars, looked fire bombed to me.

 

[Red Leg]

What the heck, since everyone can speculate including self proclaimed experts, I'll submit one more speculative observation on the errant rocket parking lot hit. That impact area damage does not look like it was caused by a very large explosive. The elongated shallow angle impact gouge and smear is relatively small. Could that have been a fairly large rocket, was carrying a payload of gasoline with something like an RPG in the nose to create an aerosol and ignite it upon impact? That might explain the burned vehicles with very little structural damage in the area of the impact. In effect a really big Molotov cocktail ?? Additionally, a liquid payload shifting or sloshing rearward could explain some of the instability shown by that rocket in flight. All pure speculation on my part

I think you are close to what happened.

It is accepted by every analyst reporting on this attack that the damage is not consistent with the munitions being used by the Israeli Air Force. Had a 500 or 1000 lb bomb hit the parking lot the surrounding hospital complex would have been destroyed. The pavement of the parking lot is barely damaged. The rockets are solid fuel not liquid fuel. Liquid fuel requires complex pumping and mixing systems. This is a locally produced solid fuel packed into a six-inch PVC pipe to create a rocket motor. They have no guidance system and accuracy is more like a bottle rocket than a modern battlefield munition. As note in my first post, one clip clearly shows a malfunctioning rocket motor and an explosion on the ground immediately following. In all likelihood, some of the solid fuel was scattered around the impact area contributing to a subsequent fire when the relatively small warhead on the rocket detonated. I also noted in my post that it would be impossible for such a blast to cause anything like 500 casualties.

This is what I posted yesterday.

From a military perspective, the most telling indicator is the area struck by the explosive ordinance. If you ignore everything written in the article, the photo of where the explosion took place - the hospital parking lot - makes it absolutely clear that it wasn't a air delivered 500 or 1000lb bomb. The hospital would have been destroyed. It looks like the sort of damage one would expect from 50lbs of Semtex or C4. The hospital buildings structurally are undamaged, though I am sure a lot of glass was blown out of windows. That also means, unless people were stacked in this area ten deep, HAMAS is also lying about the casualty count.

Aerial photos reveal scene of Gaza hospital explosion — a charred parking lot​

This is the best video of the errant rocket. Iron dome covers the target not launch area so nothing is engaging these rockets at this point. What I believe we are seeing is a rocket motor blowing up and then the warhead exploding within hospital compound when it hits the ground.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17a7zk7

 

[Red Leg]

I believe you completely ignored the fact that even main stream Democrats now disapprove of Biden. Who do you think they will vote for? Any Republican or a Kennedy? If Biden doesn’t improve his approval with his base; undoubtedly they will turn to Kennedy (or Newsome when he enters). While Trump definitely has a base of “anti-trump” voters. He also has a base that will always vote for him.

He could easily pull the Reagan and ask the public if they were happier with the state of the country when he was in charge or Biden. That would pull independents. How many? I cannot answer. Neither can any poll accurately. Again, 2016 proved that point. Polls are only as good as respondents. Marist, like any other business, stock, professional, or government won’t always be exactly correct all the time. I’m not aware of them as polls are not interesting to me. They are great for media to hype based on what political party they favor.

I frankly do not think I am completely ignoring anything - to include this poll. I find it wise to look at all sorts of data, not just that which fits a narrative with which I am comfortable. I have no idea if what the poll found will play out a year from now or not. As you note it seems to run against what has until now been conventional wisdom.

I simply noted Marsist has an established record of accuracy. Their findings indicate Kennedy may hurt Trump more than Biden. I suspect that it is worth thinking through just a bit.

 

[Brent in Az]

Im no expert, but back in the day I used to build a lot of model rockets. From Estes rockets as a kid, and rockets built in a machine shop as an adult
A buddy had a a machine shop a few doors down. This guy was an amazing machinist. He built a lot of subcontracted parts for the aerospace industry.
We built some homemade rockets up to about 5' in height, using aluminum tubing. We did have some errant flights that didn't go as planned. They were entertaining, but destroyed our hard work. Learning from our mistakes and tweaking the designs.
We used to launch these not far from Davis Monthan air force base in a large flat desert area.
One day we were talking and I popped the question about our large rocket showing up on military radar, and the possibility of all hell breaking loose?
We launched anyway. When the recovery parachutes deployed the breeze carried our rocket over the military base. Never to be seen again.
I had visions of jeeps loaded with heavily armed MP's closing in on our position.
We decided it was best to vacate the area....LOL.

That wasn't one of our finest moments

 

[Hunt anything]

Im no expert, but back in the day I used to build a lot of model rockets. From Estes rockets as a kid, and rockets built in a machine shop as an adult
A buddy had a a machine shop a few doors down. This guy was an amazing machinist. He built a lot of subcontracted parts for the aerospace industry.
We built some homemade rockets up to about 5' in height, using aluminum tubing. We did have some errant flights that didn't go as planned. They were entertaining, but destroyed our hard work. Learning from our mistakes and tweaking the designs.
We used to launch these not far from Davis Monthan air force base in a large flat desert area.
One day we were talking and I popped the question about our large rocket showing up on military radar, and the possibility of all hell breaking loose?
We launched anyway. When the recovery parachutes deployed the breeze carried our rocket over the military base. Never to be seen again.
I had visions of jeeps loaded with heavily armed MP's closing in on our position.
We decided it was best to vacate the area....LOL.

That wasn't one of our finest moments

MMM,wonder what the statute of limitations is on a rocket attack on a USAF base is? LOL

 

[Brent in Az]

MMM,wonder what the statute of limitations is on a rocket attack on a USAF base is? LOL

I've always wondered if anyone saw that rocket, or found it on the base somewhere?

 

[bowjijohn]

…… and we are back in the room ….

I don’t know about others but every morning I look for the latest Intel report from Redleg

Who’s broad understanding and detailed analysis is greatly prized

At least by me

J

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[Red Leg]

Im no expert, but back in the day I used to build a lot of model rockets. From Estes rockets as a kid, and rockets built in a machine shop as an adult
A buddy had a a machine shop a few doors down. This guy was an amazing machinist. He built a lot of subcontracted parts for the aerospace industry.
We built some homemade rockets up to about 5' in height, using aluminum tubing. We did have some errant flights that didn't go as planned. They were entertaining, but destroyed our hard work. Learning from our mistakes and tweaking the designs.
We used to launch these not far from Davis Monthan air force base in a large flat desert area.
One day we were talking and I popped the question about our large rocket showing up on military radar, and the possibility of all hell breaking loose?
We launched anyway. When the recovery parachutes deployed the breeze carried our rocket over the military base. Never to be seen again.
I had visions of jeeps loaded with heavily armed MP's closing in on our position.
We decided it was best to vacate the area....LOL.

That wasn't one of our finest moments

We never made rockets, but we did make smoke bombs. There was no PVC piping then but minute maid orange juice cans worked well. The mixture was a combination of sugar and saltpeter that was melted together and and filled the can. The resulting mixture would ignite easily when liquid (don't ask how we found out!) so we would make the stuff on an outside burner. While cooling we would stick 5 or six match heads in it surrounding a M-80 fuze. A small can was far more effective than the smoke grenades I eventually used in the army. Never had MP's show up, but someone did call the fire department one day.

 

[Red Leg]

This may be behind a pay wall. It would seem to not bode well for Trump. This is the gist of the article.
Pro-Trump lawyer Sidney Powell has pled guilty in a Georgia election-interference case. Appearing before Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee, the former federal prosecutor pleaded guilty to several misdemeanors. She agreed to serve six years of probation, pay a $6,000 fine, pay $2,700 to the Georgia secretary of state’s office and testify truthfully at co-defendants’ trials.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/10/19/pro-trump-lawyer-sidney-powell-pleads-guilty-georgia-election-interference-case/?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=wp_news_alert_revere&location=alert

More

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/politics/sidney-powell-fulton-county-georgia-2020-election-subversion/index.html

Sidney Powell pleads guilty over efforts to overturn Trump's loss in Georgia and agrees to cooperate

Lawyer Sidney Powell pleaded guilty to reduced charges Thursday over efforts to overturn Donald Trump’s loss in the 2020 election in Georgia, becoming the second defendant in the sprawling case to reach a deal with prosecutors. Powell, who was charged alongside Trump and 17 others with...

news.yahoo.com

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

The thing that makes no sense to me is all the talk about preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb & delivery system. If what we hear is true that Iran has good relations with Russia, China & North Korea and Iran has borders adjacent to two of them, what's to stop Russia or China from loading a few nukes on a truck and driving them across the border to Iran?

The question is whether Russia and China would even want Iran to have nukes? Keeping Iran partially dependent on Russia and China is likely part of their larger strategy for the region. Once Iran becomes nuclear capable, they become harder to control and the risk of a nuclear exchange that Russia and China don’t control becomes greater.

 

[Red Leg]

The question is whether Russia and China would even want Iran to have nukes? Keeping Iran partially dependent on Russia and China is likely part of their larger strategy for the region. Once Iran becomes nuclear capable, they become harder to control and the risk of a nuclear exchange that Russia and China don’t control becomes greater.

Absolutely. And both, but particularly Russia, have restive Muslim minorities that Iran can choose to support at any moment.

 

[Josh P]

I believe you completely ignored the fact that even main stream Democrats now disapprove of Biden. Who do you think they will vote for? Any Republican or a Kennedy? If Biden doesn’t improve his approval with his base; undoubtedly they will turn to Kennedy (or Newsome when he enters). While Trump definitely has a base of “anti-trump” voters. He also has a base that will always vote for him.

He could easily pull the Reagan and ask the public if they were happier with the state of the country when he was in charge or Biden. That would pull independents. How many? I cannot answer. Neither can any poll accurately. Again, 2016 proved that point. Polls are only as good as respondents. Marist, like any other business, stock, professional, or government won’t always be exactly correct all the time. I’m not aware of them as polls are not interesting to me. They are great for media to hype based on what political party they favor.

I'm not arguing for or against what you're saying, but if polls are "wrong", how can approval ratings be correct? Proven track records are probably the best indicator of polling reliability/garbage data.

 

[Red Leg]

And just to complete the morning, Robert Kennedy Jr has decided to make some news.

RFK Jr. comes out in favor of reparations, carving out lane to Biden’s left

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supports issuing reparations to the black community, making him the most prominent 2024 candidate to favor the controversial policy meant to…

nypost.com

 

[Josh P]

And just to complete the morning, Robert Kennedy Jr has decided to make some news.

RFK Jr. comes out in favor of reparations, carving out lane to Biden’s left

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supports issuing reparations to the black community, making him the most prominent 2024 candidate to favor the controversial policy meant to…

nypost.com

I liked him better when his main arena was vaccination information. I still don't see him as a crackpot though, just wrong.

 

[Doug3006]

I saw a report this morning on National Review that Ukraine made a mess of a Russian air base using ATACMS. The version that uses cluster bomblets. The first known use of them in the conflict. Russian sources say it was the most destructive attack in the war so far.

 

[Brent in Az]

We never made rockets, but we did make smoke bombs. There was no PVC piping then but minute maid orange juice cans worked well. The mixture was a combination of sugar and saltpeter that was melted together and and filled the can. The resulting mixture would ignite easily when liquid (don't ask how we found out!) so we would make the stuff on an outside burner. While cooling we would stick 5 or six match heads in it surrounding a M-80 fuze. A small can was far more effective than the smoke grenades I eventually used in the army. Never had MP's show up, but someone did call the fire department one day.

We actually toyed with the idea of installing an incendiary device into the rocket to make a grand explosion. After the military base episode, and considering how dry the desert vegetation can get, we decided not to go down that rabbit hole.

Local authorities probably wouldnt be too thrilled with guy's launching IED's

 

[Hogpatrol]

PVC, hair spray and potatoes, a winning combination.