Politics

[mdwest]

Thoughts on "memorandum of agreement ". To me it looks pretty week.

Read the 14-Point Draft Memorandum Between the US and Iran

(Bloomberg) -- The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war for good and putting strict new limits on Iran's nuclear program.Most Read from BloombergIran's Deputy Foreign...

finance.yahoo.com

the problem I see is this..

it really doesnt matter what the document says... Iran lies.. and Iran has never upheld any agreement it has ever signed in the last 47 years regarding its nuclear program..

so.. unless they hand over every single ounce of nuclear material that we know they have.. and dismantle every facility remaining that can enrich uranium.. and we commit to a very diligent and detailed program of inteligence gathering that goes on for the next hundred years... Iran will be back at trying to make a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks..

all I see is the US giving Iran a lot of money and turning off sanctions that will allow them to bring in even more money... in exchange for Iran making promises.. which Iran has a global reputation for not keeping..

 

[Mekaniks]

the problem I see is this..

it really doesnt matter what the document says... Iran lies.. and Iran has never upheld any agreement it has ever signed in the last 47 years regarding its nuclear program..

so.. unless they hand over every single ounce of nuclear material that we know they have.. and dismantle every facility remaining that can enrich uranium.. and we commit to a very diligent and detailed program of inteligence gathering that goes on for the next hundred years... Iran will be back at trying to make a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks..

all I see is the US giving Iran a lot of money and turning off sanctions that will allow them to bring in even more money... in exchange for Iran making promises.. which Iran has a global reputation for not keeping..

Yes sir,
I am hoping there is something more out there and this is not the “real deal”.
If it is… it looks like we just spent a whole lotta money with not much in return…and killed a lot of people in the process.
Let’s hope there is more to the story…..

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Thoughts on "memorandum of agreement ". To me it looks pretty week.

Read the 14-Point Draft Memorandum Between the US and Iran

(Bloomberg) -- The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war for good and putting strict new limits on Iran's nuclear program.Most Read from BloombergIran's Deputy Foreign...

finance.yahoo.com

I fully understand that Cassidy could be seen as having an ax to grind, but he had harsh things to say about it.

 

[mdwest]

I fully understand that Cassidy could be seen as having an ax to grind, but he had harsh things to say about it.

About the only people that hate Trump more than Cassidy are the far left wingers... so I take pretty much anything he has to say about the current administration with a grain of salt..

that said, Im definitely not seeing any real value in the MOU as its been laid out.. I dont see anything that the US gains other than the straits of hormuz reopen (they werent closed before the war started.. so thats just a return to the status quo) and Iran agrees to not pursue nuclear weapons.. well.. they have agreed to that several times.. and then have gone on and attempted to develop nukes.. so.. thats nothing new either..


while Im not a big Trump fan, I do acknowledge when I think he gets things right... in this particular case though I dont see anything right at all... in fact I probably see this as his single biggest failure to date..

We had a couple of choices we could have made other than the ones that were taken..

There was no reason to commit to a "war".. everything we needed to accomplish in regards to detering Irans nuclear ambitions was accomplished in the first 48 hours.. we could have simply hammered the hell out of them, killed off some key leaders.. and walked away.. and told them "fuck around again and we'll be back to do the same thing again"..

Or.. if youre going to commit to a "war".. then fully commit..

half assed measures generally render half assed results..

 

[spike.t]

Keane trying to diplomatic me thinks...but not impressed I would say.... yesterday I think I saw it

 

[AJ Peacock]

...

that said, Im definitely not seeing any real value in the MOU as its been laid out.. I dont see anything that the US gains other than the straits of hormuz reopen (they werent closed before the war started.. so thats just a return to the status quo) and Iran agrees to not pursue nuclear weapons.. well.. they have agreed to that several times.. and ...

Isn't the change in the strait (from toll based) to fully open the biggest change here? Or was the story that everyone paid a toll false?

AJ

 

[mdwest]

Isn't the change in the strait (from toll based) to fully open the biggest change here? Or was the story that everyone paid a toll false?

AJ

as I understand it the "tolls" appeared as a result of the war.. prior to us engaging there were no tolls paid by anyone..

thats something of a second tier ripple effect and negative consequence of this war I think.. Iran has threatened to shut the straits down in the past, but has never effectively done it.. now they know they can (whether they can actually shut it down or not is of no consequence.. they can convince insurers not to cover ships transiting.. which effectively shuts it down for them..).. and theyve figured out they can charge a toll, and companies will pay it, to navigate the straits..

I'd fully expect at some point for them to violate that part of the agreement as well..

they'll likely wait for the next D president to take office..

but why not? even if they just shut things down and started charging a $350-$500K fee (similar to what it costs for a large container ship or oil tanker to transit the Panama Canal) and get away with it for even just 30 days before the world responds, threatens to kick their ass, etc.. if you go back to pre-war transit numbers of about 120 ships a day x $425K avg fee x 30 days... thats a nice $1.5B added to the economy for no more effort than telling shipping companies that youre going to sink their ships if they dont pay the toll..

I would assume the Saudis, Kuwaitis, etc have gotten wise to this however and are seeing the value in building pipelines that avoid the straits.. it will take a few years and will cost billions.. but it would secure their market positions and be a whole lot less expensive than yet another war that shuts down the straits for 3-4 months and/or results in perminant tolls being put in place..

 

[AJ Peacock]

as I understand it the "tolls" appeared as a result of the war.. prior to us engaging there were no tolls paid by anyone..

thats something of a second tier ripple effect and negative consequence of this war I think.. Iran has threatened to shut the straits down in the past, but has never effectively done it.. now they know they can (whether they can actually shut it down or not is of no consequence.. they can convince insurers not to cover ships transiting.. which effectively shuts it down for them..).. and theyve figured out they can charge a toll, and companies will pay it, to navigate the straits..

I'd fully expect at some point for them to violate that part of the agreement as well..

they'll likely wait for the next D president to take office..

but why not? even if they just shut things down and started charging a $350-$500K fee (similar to what it costs for a large container ship or oil tanker to transit the Panama Canal) and get away with it for even just 30 days before the world responds, threatens to kick their ass, etc.. if you go back to pre-war transit numbers of about 120 ships a day x $425K avg fee x 30 days... thats a nice $1.5B added to the economy for no more effort than telling shipping companies that youre going to sink their ships if they dont pay the toll..

I would assume the Saudis, Kuwaitis, etc have gotten wise to this however and are seeing the value in building pipelines that avoid the straits.. it will take a few years and will cost billions.. but it would secure their market positions and be a whole lot less expensive than yet another war that shuts down the straits for 3-4 months and/or results in perminant tolls being put in place..

If I were Trump, I'd tell them that If they threaten to close the strait, mine it etc. that I'd turn Kharg island into I small sand bar. Then they really couldn't sell their oil. We should have the 'Trump card' with that threat.

AJ

 

[steve white]

We have a lack of entrepreneurial spirit among the young. Immigrants have more incentive to open a store, etc. When I was a teen, sacking groceries at Brookshires, one other teen, one year older noticed that the produce manager was getting older. He stepped up to train for the job, and got it! Within weeks he was driving a brand new El Camino and had an apartment. Any of us could have done the same, but didn't. I think it is even worse now.

In Austria two weeks ago, wife and I noticed a young lady still working a dinner shift though we had seen her at breakfast. My wife learned from her that she worked 12 hour days, but for a living wage. No one was expected to tip waitresses, etc. (later we saw her working even longer into the evening--she was training to take a shift at the front desk.)

 

[Red Leg]

Meanwhile, back in the USSR - or Russian Federation - things are getting ever more toasty around Moscow adding to what must be the staggering angst of Putin. After thoroughly embarrassing the Russian hosts of the St. Petersburg economic summit, Ukraine struck the largest oil refinery in the greater Moscow region. The results are pretty hard to hide, and it is taking place in a growing environment of fuel shortages.

Those drones that were hit by antiaircraft fire have fallen on a number of other locations within the metropolitan area making the Special Military Operation ever more special.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067464916055814326

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067539760436920383

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1u91yoy/ukraine_hits_moscow_oil_refinery_in_largest

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/r8efqonQcT

 

[thoma018]

@mdwest --There was no reason to commit to a "war".. everything we needed to accomplish in regards to detering Irans nuclear ambitions was accomplished in the first 48 hours.. we could have simply hammered the hell out of them, killed off some key leaders.. and walked away.. and told them "fuck around again and we'll be back to do the same thing again"..

Or.. if youre going to commit to a "war".. then fully commit..

@AJ Peacock --If I were Trump, I'd tell them that If they threaten to close the strait, mine it etc. that I'd turn Kharg island into I small sand bar. Then they really couldn't sell their oil. We should have the 'Trump card' with that threat.

Either or both of the above..... what lessons have we learned--NADA. We evidently look like the " great laughing laughingstock" to the Iranians. I think we are......

 

[LivingTheDream]

We evidently look like the " great laughing laughingstock" to the Iranians. I think we are......

Its very weird to me, that we killed their leaders, sunk their entire Navy, destroyed their aircraft, set back their nuclear program, destroyed their economy and the value of their currency, but we are considered a laughing stock.

And to be clear I am not happy with the deal as written, if we actually get the Nuclear Dust than I might feel a little better, but feel like we will be doing another bombing campaign at some point.

 

[pilar]

Isn't the change in the strait (from toll based) to fully open the biggest change here? Or was the story that everyone paid a toll

, the Panama Canal and Suez Canal are toll waters
Turkey charges fees for commercial ships passing through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits.

Its fairly common to charge a passage fee
USA charges China a passage fee to enter our territories

 

[rookhawk]

Is this year evidence of the fall of our nation?

I was an infant during the bicentennial so I don't remember it, but I remember every family photo in every house showing enormous gatherings. Flags everywhere. I remember the obsession with Colonial and Federal motifs, furniture, decor, and revival architecture. I remember as a young child all those "Spirit of '76" objects festooned in homes and government buildings well into the mid-1980s.

I then reflect as a kid of the 1980s where all the small towns had their sesquicentennial celebrations. The dragged out all the old props and decorations they threw into municipal storage a decade earlier and they reused them for major State & Local milestones once more. Little drummer boys. Federal eagles and globes. Colonial flags.

Well, we're 16 days from the nation's 250th birthday and I see literally nothing. Maybe less than a dozen of the 250th celebration flags in retail stores. I saw a few items at retail stores where the paper adverts showed the logo for the 250th but even the merchandise decided to tread lightly with simply red, white, and blue colors and no logos or tag lines. (e.g. Yeti mugs)

There is no build up. No hype. No bipartisan pride. No revival of movies celebrating the founders or their era. No movement towards the architecture and styles that abounded 1976 revival of 1776. In general, it seems as understated and typical as any other summer in any other year.

Is this an indication that patriotism or passion for the American experiment is dying?

 

[RLD]

the problem I see is this..

it really doesnt matter what the document says... Iran lies.. and Iran has never upheld any agreement it has ever signed in the last 47 years regarding its nuclear program..

so.. unless they hand over every single ounce of nuclear material that we know they have.. and dismantle every facility remaining that can enrich uranium.. and we commit to a very diligent and detailed program of inteligence gathering that goes on for the next hundred years... Iran will be back at trying to make a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks..

all I see is the US giving Iran a lot of money and turning off sanctions that will allow them to bring in even more money... in exchange for Iran making promises.. which Iran has a global reputation for not keeping..

The most optimistic view of this MOU is that the details that get thrashed out later have some real teeth and verification systems.

If essentially "this is it", this resolution is a waste of paper and this war will have brought more trouble that it was worth.

 

[RLD]

Meanwhile, back in the USSR - or Russian Federation - things are getting ever more toasty around Moscow adding to what must be the staggering angst of Putin. After thoroughly embarrassing the Russian hosts of the St. Petersburg economic summit, Ukraine struck the largest oil refinery in the greater Moscow region. The results are pretty hard to hide, and it is taking place in a growing environment of fuel shortages.

Those drones that were hit by antiaircraft fire have fallen on a number of other locations within the metropolitan area making the Special Military Operation ever more special.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067464916055814326

https://twitter.com/x/status/2067539760436920383

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1u91yoy/ukraine_hits_moscow_oil_refinery_in_largest

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/r8efqonQcT

Best thing I saw on the news this morning.

 

[Tanks]

The most optimistic view of this MOU is that the details that get thrashed out later have some real teeth and verification systems.

If essentially "this is it", this resolution is a waste of paper and this war will have brought more trouble that it was worth.

One thing the MOU does is to throw Israel under the bus saying Israel will leave Lebanon. That is not going to go well as Israel will tell Trump to go pound sand as they were not involved in any negotiations.

1. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

 

[Big_Easy]

you're presenting one viable option. I'll restate your option explicitly and then I'll present a second option.

Option 1: With much vetting, we have seasonal migrant labor that provides us useful skills (e.g. like we had in the 1980s) to harvest our vegetables. They then go back to Latin America better off, and we're better off for the affordable produce.

Option 2: No cost is incurred that isn't passed on to the consumer. When crops cannot be harvested for $12 an hour, they get harvested at $25 an hour. We do pay more for our strawberries, but the 4% unemployed finally see the point of working because wages increase to a level that creates interest. In turn, while our strawberries are more expensive, the uninsured motorist collisions, crime, and pressures on our social services and schools diminish. It turns out an expensive strawberry is a lot less expensive than tuition/prisons/insurance in the long run.

This just happened a mile from my house. A 13 year old farm kid was safely riding in his restored 1960s John Deere tractor when an uninsured, undocumented hispanic woman travelling at excessive speeds hit the tractor so hard it was split in half. $30k tractor destroyed. A miracle the kid survived. Why was she in such a hurry? She was driving between Dairy #1 and Dairy #2 for daily milking. My local neighbor and moral enemy decides to hire illegal workers and put them behind the wheel. I do not want cheap milk as much as I want safe roads with legal drivers.

Unfortunately you almost got it...but not quite. You see what you failed to discuss is how businesses love to privatize profits...but socialize the risks. That's what you're referring to. The business gets to hire cheap illegal immigrant labor to increase profits, and then society gets to pay the rests of the costs, like in your example about the car crashing into the tractor (healthcare, disability, personal property loss)...Or when our gov keeps bailing out businesses during hard economic times (like the financial crisis, or the housing bubble, or during COVID with PPP loans). Republicans love Capitalism unless big businesses ask for a handout, then it's all socialism buddy.

But the greater point which hasn't been discussed is shareholder value theory. For the past 45 years Republicans have held that as sacrosanct. Shareholder value theory doesn't care about car crashes, or illegals committing crimes, or the cost to educate and care for them. That's the real reason why our strawberry prices cant go up. It doesn't allow corporations to pay people $25/hr for fruit picking (in reality its way more due to taxes and benefits). It demands we import immigrants, illegal or otherwise, it demands we outsource jobs to China, or Mexico, or Vietnam, or Canada, or wherever. It's the same reason Republicans have demanded massive tax cuts for businesses. It's not about productivity gains, R&D spending, or capital expansion, it's about maximizing profits for shareholders.

There is absolutely no way to square this circle, you'll never see any lasting, meaningful changes to immigration policy as long as our politicians and their big business pimps believe in shareholder value theory at all costs.

 

[Big_Easy]

Nobody wants to do those jobs for the amount being offered. Someone will dig through a pile of shit with a spoon for 12 hours, if they think they are being fairly compensated. Free market principals work for labour as well.

It's amazing that all the vacant jobs that "nobody wants to work for" all pay less than $15 an hour. But when its $30-40/hr they are mostly filled. I don't see any $50+ hr jobs with benefits vacant by me. Strange...almost like if you pay people a living wage they do the work?

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

You can’t pay a living wage for a job that was never designed to support an adult, fruit picking and burger flipping are jobs for teenagers that are still subsidized by their parents not career paths. If someone doesn’t have the ambition to rise above that rung on the employment ladder why should we all be forced to support them?