Politics

[mdwest]

Excellent analysis, I completely agree.
What many here are thinking but don't dare to say out loud: in Europe, we don't currently see Putin as the problem (to put it bluntly: what business is it of Europe what happens in the Donbas, or ever has been? Ukraine is still one of the most corrupt countries in the world and sells donated military equipment all over the globe; sympathy for them is limited).Your president issues more threats in one week (not only against us) than Putin has in 20 years.Canada is on his list (a NATO member).Greenland/Denmark (dito).Tariffs.Withdrawal from NATO (by the way, NATO is not an intervention force, never has been).He threatens the Pope.The annihilation of Iran's civilization...Doesn't anyone here notice the international shift away from the USA?The former liberating power of the world?Is all of this supposed to go to the dogs?

I think everyone raising hell is a victim of short term thinking...

Trump is in office for 2.5 more years..

Right now most predictors say the R's continue to own the senate after November... but the house is a toss up..

No matter how the house turns out, neither party will have absolute control of the house.. there will be a very small lead for whichever party ends up with the majority.. and there are enough people on both sides that will not blindly support their party that any vote that comes to the house floor can be in question (Fetterman, Murkowski, etc etc)..

Assume the worst case scenario (in the eyes of many Europeans).. the republicans retain both the house and the senate after the mid terms, and Trump continues to stay in office for 2.5 more years..

Nothing changes.. he continues to say and do the things he says and does.. people continue to get offended.. etc etc...

And then in January 2029 everything changes..

No matter who wins.. even the most conservative and isolationist of the front runners on the R side of the house are not Trump... they dont have the same bombastic manerisms.. they dont have the same wide open negotiations tactics or stratgies, etc.. and if a D ends up winning in late 2028, frankly all of the front running D's are so far left of Biden that everything Trump manages to accomplish gets reversed in the first 90 days..

the NATO quandry isnt a 2.5 year quandry.. its a 20-30 year quandry.. getting emotional over Trump and his NATO threats and focusing on the short game doesnt serve Europe at all.. Europe should be focused on the long game and long term strategies..

Were I a senior European leader I'd be much more interested in Vance, Rubio, and DeSantis as well as Newsome, Whitmer, and Harris.. and figuring out how Im going to be managing any of those relationships.. they all have the potential to sit in office for 8 consecutive years as opposed to Trumps remaining 2.5.. and I'd be trying to figure out how to best ride out the next 2.5 years with as little damage/problems as I can.. which doesnt necessarily mean appeasing Trump so much as staying out of his focus and ire...

 

[Pondoro]

Excellent analysis, I completely agree.
What many here are thinking but don't dare to say out loud: in Europe, we don't currently see Putin as the problem (to put it bluntly: what business is it of Europe what happens in the Donbas, or ever has been? Ukraine is still one of the most corrupt countries in the world and sells donated military equipment all over the globe; sympathy for them is limited).Your president issues more threats in one week (not only against us) than Putin has in 20 years.Canada is on his list (a NATO member).Greenland/Denmark (dito).Tariffs.Withdrawal from NATO (by the way, NATO is not an intervention force, never has been).He threatens the Pope.The annihilation of Iran's civilization...Doesn't anyone here notice the international shift away from the USA?The former liberating power of the world?Is all of this supposed to go to the dogs?

The root cause to the internal trouble within NATO is all the nonsense Trump and Rubio come up with.

The trust within NATO is fragile..lets hope the alliance survive Trump.

 

[jeanes]

Pay attention to what Trump says, of course, but pay even more attention to what he does. Also pay attention to what Putin does. As far as a lot of what Trump says - "Insult like poison, only effective if taken"- Charlie Chan

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Excellent analysis, I completely agree.
What many here are thinking but don't dare to say out loud: in Europe, we don't currently see Putin as the problem (to put it bluntly: what business is it of Europe what happens in the Donbas, or ever has been? Ukraine is still one of the most corrupt countries in the world and sells donated military equipment all over the globe; sympathy for them is limited).Your president issues more threats in one week (not only against us) than Putin has in 20 years.Canada is on his list (a NATO member).Greenland/Denmark (dito).Tariffs.Withdrawal from NATO (by the way, NATO is not an intervention force, never has been).He threatens the Pope.The annihilation of Iran's civilization...Doesn't anyone here notice the international shift away from the USA?The former liberating power of the world?Is all of this supposed to go to the dogs?

What’s the pope got to do with anything?

 

[mdwest]

Thank you for the run-through, I must confess that I put your numbers through Copilot, since I dont had the time to Google everything, and everything checked out just right, your knowledge of these things are impressive.
Copilot did had an interesting note I dont know if its correct or not, but for some reason it seems like the US still has a higher interest burden then the european nations you cited above. I am curious as to why that is if someone on the forum knows? Different ways of financing the debt or something else?

These are the numbers Copilot gave:
How does the interest burden in the US compared to the European countries listed:

US interest payments (% of GDP): 3.15%​

Euro area average: ~1.9%​

Among your list:

Country	Interest burden vs US
France	Lower
Belgium	Lower
Austria	Much lower
Slovakia	Lower (Eurozone average applies)
Poland	Lower
UK	Lower (UK ~2.4–2.6% GDP)
North Macedonia	Lower
Turkey	Similar or slightly higher
Hungary	Similar (one of the few close to US)
Romania	Likely lower, but data not retrieved

​

The United States pays a significantly higher share of its economy in interest than almost all European countries on your list. Only Hungary and Turkey are in the same range. Everyone else is well below the US. This is why analysts talk about US interest costs as a “warning signal”: the US is now spending more on interest than on defense R&D, veterans’ benefits, or most federal agencies — and is on track to surpass the entire defense budget.

That is an interesting note from Co-Pilot.. I'll probably dig into that and see how accurate it is and/or how relevant it is..

I definitely believe the US is spending itself to death.. and also believe that neither of our major political parties has the balls to do the things it knows is necessary to correct the problem for the long term.. they are perfectly happy just kicking the can down the road for another few years and continue to promise a long term solution "later"...

As an example, Trump came in and cut a substantial number of federal jobs, cut a substantial number of international programs that provided little to no value to the US, etc.. but then turned around and increased spending in other areas... and we continue to operate at too high of a deficit despite all of the "cuts"...

Sooner or later that bubble bursts.. and when it does the whole world suffers (even worse than the US suffering when suddenly all of the "things" the government pays for stops being paid for... think about all of the holders of that debt that get defaulted on and how their economies get destroyed and how their people suffer)...

The question no one can seem to accurately answer is "when" is this going to happen.. Is it 5 years from now? 50 years? etc..

I have been hearing since my 20's that our Social Security program is going to become insolvent within "10 years"... its been almost 40 years.. and it still hasnt happened... but.. if you look at all of the major market predictors, theyre now saying parts of Social Security will have to be eliminated by the "mid 2030's"... (so I guess we're still 10 years out? after 40 years of waiting?)

The problem is.. the federal government always finds a way to avoid insolvency.. and will continue to believe they can avoid it... until at some point, they cant..

then what happens?

The day is coming... and that day is going to be extremely ugly...

But no one seems to know exactly when thats going to be..

 

[skydiver386]

The root cause to the internal trouble within NATO is all the nonsense Trump and Rubio come up with.

The trust within NATO is fragile..lets hope the alliance survive Trump.

WRONG!

The root of the internal trouble within NATO is the European member nations who haven't contributed their fair share.

All Trump and Rubio have done is point this out.

 

[jeanes]

I can remember when Reagan "fixed" social security for all time. It never stays fixed.

 

[Tex .416]

Couple of observations, NATO members are major customers of US made hardware. That investment in US made products provides jobs, but perhaps more importantly helps provide revenue to underwrite our research, development, and production of what we need. NATO purchases of US made equipment also helps standarize equipment which brings down cost of production and also helps with familiarization and sharing of equipment in a time of need. Seems prudent to consider that before just pissing off and dumping customers.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Thank you for the run-through, I must confess that I put your numbers through Copilot, since I dont had the time to Google everything, and everything checked out just right, your knowledge of these things are impressive.
Copilot did had an interesting note I dont know if its correct or not, but for some reason it seems like the US still has a higher interest burden then the european nations you cited above. I am curious as to why that is if someone on the forum knows? Different ways of financing the debt or something else?

These are the numbers Copilot gave:
How does the interest burden in the US compared to the European countries listed:

US interest payments (% of GDP): 3.15%​

Euro area average: ~1.9%​

Among your list:

Country	Interest burden vs US
France	Lower
Belgium	Lower
Austria	Much lower
Slovakia	Lower (Eurozone average applies)
Poland	Lower
UK	Lower (UK ~2.4–2.6% GDP)
North Macedonia	Lower
Turkey	Similar or slightly higher
Hungary	Similar (one of the few close to US)
Romania	Likely lower, but data not retrieved

​

The United States pays a significantly higher share of its economy in interest than almost all European countries on your list. Only Hungary and Turkey are in the same range. Everyone else is well below the US. This is why analysts talk about US interest costs as a “warning signal”: the US is now spending more on interest than on defense R&D, veterans’ benefits, or most federal agencies — and is on track to surpass the entire defense budget.

A Cliffs Notes explanation is inflation keeps the rates higher. Also, there are many factors that have caused some investors to demand higher risk premiums to back more U.S. debt.

The riskier the debt the more in interest

 

[skydiver386]

I can remember when Reagan "fixed" social security for all time. It never stays fixed.

That's because Social Security was a Democrat Shyster Heist from day 1.

 

[jeanes]

That's because Social Security was a Democrat Shyster Heist from day 1.

Can't disagree, but at my age it would hurt my personal economy to have to do without it.

 

[Hunt anything]

Can't disagree, but at my age it would hurt my personal economy to have to do without it.

Me as well, I surely wish that we could have taken advantage of George Bush’s plan to allow us to put some of that money in the stock market.

 

[JimP]

Can't disagree, but at my age it would hurt my personal economy to have to do without it.

Just do as I did, forget the money that you put into SS and start your own retirement plan. Then whatever you get from SS in the end is a plus.

It doesn't take much savings and investments each month to start to amount to quite a bit after 20-30 years.

 

[Wheels]

This British news host is among the first foreigners I have heard who has Trump figured out.

The chess board is not Iran. The chessboard is the world. In chess there are sacrifices to improve strategic positions. Institutions like NATO or Europe if not part of the strategic offensive push are potential sacrifices to improve the strategic position. This host has just figured out the UK is an isolated pawn and not part of the Kings strategic plan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041722116316524603

 

[jruby]

That's because Social Security was a Democrat Shyster Heist from day 1.

By the time I retire I will have paid into it for 56 years and there was never a choice not too since I dont own my own business. I think when I get there and I can't collect at least some of what I paid into it I will be more than a little pissed. And quit calling Social Security an entitlement I paid for mine.

 

[KJE81]

This British news host is among the first foreigners I have heard who has Trump figured out.

The chess board is not Iran. The chessboard is the world. In chess there are sacrifices to improve strategic positions. Institutions like NATO or Europe if not part of the strategic offensive push are potential sacrifices to improve the strategic position. This host has just figured out the UK is an isolated pawn and not part of the Kings strategic plan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041722116316524603

Well Trump hasnt exactly been coy about it either

I remember reading an article with references to some older ideas of american dominion of the western hemisphere, cant find the exact one now but this one does come close: https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rder-venezuela-cuba-mexico-colombia-greenland

Or perhaps this clip: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1224480349624921

I think it might have been this old map, made by Maurice Gomberg in 1942, called the “New World Order”.

 

[Wheels]

Well Trump hasnt exactly been secrative about it either

View attachment 758628

No he hasn’t. That’s why I find it interesting the world is just starting to articulate what Trump has been saying for a decade. Or really four decades.

 

[skydiver386]

By the time I retire I will have paid into it for 56 years and there was never a choice not too since I dont own my own business. I think when I get there and I can't collect at least some of what I paid into it I will be more than a little pissed. And quit calling Social Security an entitlement I paid for mine.

Actually you and I didn't pay into it, they TOOK it from you whether you wanted it or not.

 

[Brent in Az]

"Aya-TOLL-Ah"

 

[deewayne2003]

By the time I retire I will have paid into it for 56 years and there was never a choice not too since I dont own my own business. I think when I get there and I can't collect at least some of what I paid into it I will be more than a little pissed. And quit calling Social Security an entitlement I paid for mine.

Well I've paid into it for 28 years so far and have a minimum 25 years left to pay into it, owning my own business I pay an extra 15% income tax more than a general employee does and I don't expect to collect anything from this entitlement program/ponzi scheme........ although I certainly paid for mine.

What will be interesting is when the boomers lose their voting majority they've enjoyed at the same time that SS goes tits up broke......

Those will be entertaining times when younger generations go to the ballot to decide the fate of SS!