Politics

You do understand that Trump won’t be the President in two and a half years? And don’t give me that BS about a 3rd term.
Yes I do, but since he has allready managed to wreck it this much I think that he might succeed in wrecking it completely by the time his term is up.

Also there is no telling that another candidate with similar policies will not be elected again. I think that now when it has happened twice other nations has learned that they cant simply wait out his term...

I dont think it would be wise to make long term defense plans on a wish that the next president is more conventional...

There also seems to be reala possibility that if an future republican MAGA candidate endorsed by Trump loses the general election Trump will simply declare that the election was stolen again...

If I understand it correctly it was not the institutions that held but rather individuals last time and now he has made sure to have a vice president that most likely will not deny an order to refuse to certify the result etc...
 
Trump‘s birthright citizenship executive order arguments in front of the Supreme Court today;

I’m betting the Supreme Court rules in June it’s settled law. Your argument is not with the USSC. Go back and ask Congress to rewrite the law or enforce the border laws and limit illegal immigration to limit illegal babies born here.
I think your prediction is probably correct, but, a friend of mine who was there suggested the ACLU did not run a good case today and the government did. Could be a closer call than many of us would have predicted.
 
The Government is definitely on the correct side of the argument. And common sense.
As argued.
“8 billion people are now one airline flight away from their baby being a U.S. citizen.

But Robert’s immediately said that may be true. But has nothing to do with the Constitution
 
The current U.S. war against Iran is quite different. While I think everyone supports a non-nuclear armed Iraq, this war goes well beyond that. It intentionally killed the country's political leaders, and has attacked full military infrastructure, including their navy in particular, which has literally nothing to do with the threat of nuclear weapons. It looks like this war is (at its highest) a preventative defensive war which most legal scholars would agree is illegal under international law. No matter how you feel about it pragmatically it breaks a multitude of generally accepted international norms.

If you could expand on this I would appreciate it. I think International law is gray at best and basically comes down to various treaties and charters. Though not used much since the UN, the US did give an ultimatum to Iran and Iran admitted they were violating UN charters with regards to nuclear proliferation. The attack on military targets associated with nuclear war would seem to be in scope.
 
I think your prediction is probably correct, but, a friend of mine who was there suggested the ACLU did not run a good case today and the government did. Could be a closer call than many of us would have predicted.

So to this point, I heard last week that the government case was actually much stronger than originally thought.
 
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No Pay - No Say :D
 
Read prior posts..

Trump does not have the ability to pull the US out of NATO.

It takes a 2/3 vote from the US Senate.. Or an act of congress that passes both the house and the senate..

And AFTER that happens, the US has to provide NATO with a 1 year formal notice..

What Trump can do is simply refuse to involve the US in anything NATO related for the remainder of his term in office.. no more joint exercises.. no more allowing hundreds of NATO officers attend US war colleges, advanced military training at US school houses, etc.. no more funding of anything remotely linked to NATO.. no more participation in NATO command structure... and basically render NATO completely combat ineffective..

For the crying liberals out there.. whether you want to acknowledge facts and truth or not.. the US alone funds 16% of NATO's direct budget.. and 62% of NATO's defense spending comes from the US..

So.. Europe needs US participation in NATO far more than the US needs Europes participation...

If the US stops writing the checks (which is exactly what Trump would do).. it would push Europe to disbanding NATO and forming a new, fragmented alliance, without the US's money.. which for very obvious reasons would make the new alliance a pretty piss poor offensive fragment of what Europe had prior..

Europe and Canada may be finally after decades of abandon starting to ramp up its miliary capability again.. but what it took decades to destroy will take decades to rebuild..

And good luck continuing to fund all of those social welfare programs, dealing with your out of control migrant programs, etc.. while having to ramp up your defense and offense capabilities at an even faster pace once all US money is taken off the table..

People can get upset and moan until the cows come home.. it doesnt change the facts... Europe lacks the economy to continue on the path its on if it has to start footing the bills that the US has been carrying related to NATO (like 15% of the $6.5B it takes just to keep the NATO infrastructure funded in 2026 and 62% of the $1.5T in defense spending across the 32 NATO member countries)..

It also seems Trump could just draw down any amount of the 80,000 troops currently in Europe.
 
Also there is no telling that another candidate with similar policies will not be elected again. I think that now when it has happened twice other nations has learned that they cant simply wait out his term...

I dont think it would be wise to make long term defense plans on a wish that the next president is more conventional...
my thoughts regarding waiting out trump OR another candidate's term:

either way, the NATO countries should be interested and motivated to bump up their spending, etc for their own defense. a real concern for NATO counties IMHO is, with the large influx of migrants that have not assimilated into the European culture or way of thinking, are those migrants going to be willing to even sign up to fight for their current "sugar daddy" country?

much like here in america, i doubt many if any "liberals" or leftist individuals would be willing to sign up to protect the US. i imagine many of the illegal immigrants would feel the same. it truly makes me sad to se so many of my countrymen that seem to believe that the country that gives them so much freedom (and assistance when needed) are so hate filled for it.

i think trumps not being "conventional" is a gift and has helped him steer this country back on track (in a general sense, he is not perfect in every way!) getting rid of DEI, closing the border, wanting only citizens to vote, ejecting illegal immigrants etc. are things that i am in support of, and previous presidents "conventional" actions were not getting things done.
 
To me it is nuts to say the US must he more involved in the Ukraine, but Europe cant even open its airspace to US planes when attacking Iran.
It is only a few countries led by Spain. Read the article I posted earlier.
In fact the Budapest Memo offers exactly ZERO guarantees to anyone.. it merely offers "assurances" (and, again, was written that way on purpose)..
Hence, Ukraine should not accept any assurance from anyone, especially the US, in regard to any kind of assurances for a cease fire.
The Government is definitely on the correct side of the argument. And common sense.
As argued.
“8 billion people are now one airline flight away from their baby being a U.S. citizen.
Well, great majority of those 8 billion people would not qualify for a visa. It is very difficult, if not impossible, for people from impoverished countries to get a visa. Hence illegal immigration, so the solution is to stop them at the border.
 
If you could expand on this I would appreciate it. I think International law is gray at best and basically comes down to various treaties and charters. Though not used much since the UN, the US did give an ultimatum to Iran and Iran admitted they were violating UN charters with regards to nuclear proliferation. The attack on military targets associated with nuclear war would seem to be in scope.
I think the big unsolved question is how immediate the threat of Iran using nuclear weapons was, and if those weapons could reach the United States.

There is a nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and Iran is a signatory. A proven breech is supposed to be referred to the UN security council to be dealt with. That never happened, possibly because Iran would not allow proper inspections.

More broadly, every country has a right to defend itself against attack, or the immediate threat of attack. Your defense, though, like all military actions, has to be proportionate to the threat. If there was a court that heard these cases the Iranian lawyer would argue that a) they were not developing nuclear weapons, and b) those weapons were not close to being developed (ie they were a distant threat not an immediate one) and c) that those weapons were not capable of reaching the United States and thus were not a threat to U.S. at all, and d) the U.S. response was disproportionate. An American lawyer would more or less argue the opposite.

The truth is I don't know what the status of Iran's nuclear program was, I don't trust Trump to be honest and I don't trust Iran to be honest either. I do think, on an objective basis that killing the head of state and trying to wipe out their navy, air force, etc is well beyond what is needed to stop any nuclear threat that may have existed.

If you have the time there are some great books out there on the International Law of Armed Combat, some written by respected serving military men (ie practical rather than political) that can give you a good grounding in this stuff. But I warn you it is a rabbit hole that can eat up a lot of your time. It's a fascinating area, and a lot of it was just plain ol' made up to be used at Nuremberg to deal with the left over Nazis, a movement lead by the United States. Some aspects of it go back to the Lieber Code from President Lincoln. The United States deep investment and involvement in the creation of the law of war makes Trump's and the Breck Girl's (my nickname for Hegseth) lack of interest in it particularly unsettling for international observers like me.
 
So to this point, I heard last week that the government case was actually much stronger than originally thought.
I don't know if their case is stronger, but apparently they argued it like champs today. A nice change from the general legal incompetence of this administration.
 
Hence, Ukraine should not accept any assurance from anyone, especially the US, in regard to any kind of assurances for a cease fire.

I'd say the US has more than met the assurances offered in the Budapest Memo...

the memo calls economic response from the US and the UK..

Considering the US has spent more on Ukraine than all of the rest of NATO combined since 2022.. and the US sent them economic aid and put additional sanctions on the Russians in 2014 (exactly as the memo calls for).. and the world was perfectly fine with that 2014 response..

Im not sure how much more Ukraine should expect out of the memo..

The Russians obviously havent followed through with their assurances.. and the UK has done almost the same as the US when you compare their economy to our economy and the % of spend vs the % of US spend in Ukraine..
 
Trump‘s birthright citizenship executive order arguments in front of the Supreme Court today;

I’m betting the Supreme Court rules in June it’s settled law. Your argument is not with the USSC. Go back and ask Congress to rewrite the law or enforce the border laws and limit illegal immigration to limit illegal babies born here.

If SCOTUS rules it’s settled law there is nothing Congress can write to change it. At a minimum it would require a partial repeal or rewrite of the 14th Amendment.

It is interesting that Sauer argued to uphold US vs Wong Kim Ark today. Looks like the government is arguing the technical aspects of the 14th which is differentiating a child born to an individual legally here vs illegally here. A child born to an individual legally here would be a citizen.

Caution: This is my layman thoughts and understanding . ;)
 
I think the big unsolved question is how immediate the threat of Iran using nuclear weapons was, and if those weapons could reach the United States.

There is a nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and Iran is a signatory. A proven breech is supposed to be referred to the UN security council to be dealt with
First, they themselves bragged about enriching the existing 60% nuclear material to weapon grade within a month or so. The question is not whether they can reach the USA, but whether they can reach Israel. There is no doubt in my mind that if they were to get it, they would use it on Israel. Fanatics do not care about consequences.

If there is a proven breech, what can the UN security council can do? They already would have a nuclear weapon with missiles capable of reaching most European capitals and Israel is basically a layup.

Korea and Pakistan became nuclear nations by ignoring everyone else.
 
I'd say the US has more than met the assurances offered in the Budapest Memo...

the memo calls economic response from the US and the UK..
My point is that memo and assurances in it were toothless. Yes, Russia was sanctioned and people kept buying their oil, heck Trump just lifted the sanctions partially due to the Iran war.

You can't sanction a nation with one hand and give them money with the other.
 
I think your prediction is probably correct, but, a friend of mine who was there suggested the ACLU did not run a good case today and the government did. Could be a closer call than many of us would have predicted.

This is my understanding as well. Sauer did an amazing job.
 
I listen to part of the ussc argument and it was about duel citizens having to go serve in the military, made perfect sense to me , in college I had friend who had duel citizenship
And he had to go do two years of mandatory military service back in his father’s country, makes perfect sense to me as we don’t know who might be a hostile country in the future? IMO you cant have feet In to countries ( I don’t care what the international Olympic Committee says if you know what I mean)
 
There is a nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and Iran is a signatory. A proven breech is supposed to be referred to the UN security council to be dealt with. That never happened, possibly because Iran would not allow proper inspections.

Thats a pretty weak argument...

Iran has admitted breach more times than I can count.. and as recently as June 2025 the UNSC found Iran non compliant. In Sept 2025 the UNSC then imposed sanctions against Iran..

Everyone on the planet, to include the Iranians know that the Iranians have never met the requirements of the non proliferation treaty.. and other than occasional slaps on the wrist, the UN historically has done nothing about it..

Then Consider that Russia and China are both perminant members of the UNSC.. Then consider that among the 10 non perminant members of the UNSC that are currently serving are Somalia, Pakistan, Liberia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.. and what you have is a joke of a security council serving what has become a joke of a global institution..

The UNSC is no resolution to the problem..
 
Question for our European ALLIES here. WHEN (not if) China decides to invade Taiwan to CONTROL 90% of products heading to Europe and 24% of total global maritime trade through the South China Sea, will European countries allow the US to use their bases or fly over their territory IF (and probably will) the US attempts to stop China's invasion of Taiwan? Or will it just be a US and probably Japan's and Australia's (because they could be next) "intervention" and "not our war"?. Sure, it's not Ukraine or Iran, but IT IS coming IMHO and probably much more disastrous, so that's why I'm asking.
 

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