Politics

[Brent in Az]

Trump stated that a couple of the warriors that attacked Maduros stronghold were hit, but are expected to be o.k

 

[Red Leg]

VERY interesting article and Ching was truly an exceptional Admiral. Remember though, Germany and Japan’s largest battleships in the world during WW2 were sunk by our aircraft from our aircraft carriers. I love the concept of battleships, but I’m not sure in today’s world they’re the best bang for the buck?

Which is why we are not building a traditional "battleship." I am sure the navy is cringing a little over the use of the term. This will be a new class of ship. I think guided missile battle cruiser would be most accurate. It will carry a far larger inventory of long range offensive strike weapons than a current guided missile cruiser, while also offering broad and simultaneous self and task force air defense capability. In many ways, it is the antithesis of a WWII big gun battleship.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

A fair question, but on the other hand, how many times does history have to ask, "Well, why didn't anyone do anything to help? Why did everyone just sit on their hands?"

Sometimes 'doing something' etc looks ugly, isn't popular, and rides very fine lines.

And then there is this tweet, if you want to see an example of expert hand-sitting.

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Totally agree. I am much more in the "someone needs to do something" camp. I was just wondering what people with more experience and knowledge think about any potential fallout.

 

[Aaron N]

There are stark differences here between what has happened in Venezuela vs Ukraine and what is threatened in Taiwan…

Russia wants Ukraine to be absorbed into Russia. They want Ukraine to cease to exist.

China wants Taiwan to be absorbed into China and for Taiwan to cease to exist.

Numerous countries of the free world have refused to acknowledge Maduro as the rightful leader of Venezuela.. it’s not just the US.. and Maduro has been wanted in the US federal courts since 2020 on numerous very serious federal felony charges… and.. the US isn’t interested in Venezuela ceasing to exist or physically occupying Venezuela (at least for now)…

About the only thing Venezuela has in common with Ukraine and Taiwan is that a military force has been used to seize an objective…

But the objectives are vastly different… and we use the military all the time to seize objectives.. whether that’s disabling Iranian nuke capability, punching ISIS in the nuts in Syria, whacking Boko Harem assholes in Nigeria, etc..

And the oil, don’t forget the main reason, oil.

 

[mdwest]

Oil is shallow thinking…

Venezuela is natural resource rich… prior to Chavez there were huge mining operations, huge timber operations, and huge farming operations…

The oil is just a bonus.. China needs everything else too..

This potentially makes it a whole lot harder for China to get it..

The Russians need Venezuela as a trading partner… the number of countries trading with Russia is drying up… Venezuela has spent a ton of money with the Russian Defense Industrial Complex…

This potentially makes things much harder on the Russians..

The US doesn’t need Venezuelan oil… getting it is just a bonus…

Denying it to the Chinese… (and everything else stated above) is the strategic chess move that gets played…

 

[Scott CWO]

And the oil, don’t forget the main reason, oil.

We have our own oil but it's not terrible news to prevent China from getting cheap oil. That $50B owed to China by Maduro will be hard to collect now.

Edit: @mdwest beat me to it.

 

[Aaron N]

Oil is shallow thinking…

Venezuela is natural resource rich… prior to Chavez there were huge mining operations, huge timber operations, and huge farming operations…

The oil is just a bonus.. China needs everything else too..

This potentially makes it a whole lot harder for China to get it..

The Russians need Venezuela as a trading partner… the number of countries trading with Russia is drying up… Venezuela has spent a ton of money with the Russian Defense Industrial Complex…

This potentially makes things much harder on the Russians..

The US doesn’t need Venezuelan oil… getting it is just a bonus…

Denying it to the Chinese… (and everything else stated above) is the strategic chess move that gets played…

A 303b barrel bonus.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Yes, Venezuela has a massive quantity of oil, however most of it is very low quality stuff. It’s very low gravity. Most oils float on top of water. The very low gravity crude in the Orinoco is so low that it sinks in water. This makes it hard to produce and refine. One of the products Venezuela has exported is called Orinoco emulsion. It’s basically very low gravity, thick crude, mixed with water. It’s used in several Caribbean countries to generate electricity.

 

[Aaron N]

Yes, Venezuela has a massive quantity of oil, however most of it is very low quality stuff. It’s very low gravity. Most oils float on top of water. The very low gravity crude in the Orinoco is so low that it sinks in water. This makes it hard to produce and refine. One of the products Venezuela has exported is called Orinoco emulsion. It’s basically very low gravity, thick crude, mixed with water. It’s used in several Caribbean countries to generate electricity.

But can it not be upgraded? Didnt the gulf accept Venezuelan crude in the past?

And another question, I feel that at some point I read that a good chunk of the Venezuelan reserves are very deep and hard to access. Is there truth to this?

 

[PARA45]

@Tundra Tiger, let’s not forget we have done something similar (by other Presidents) in Granada, Panama, and Haiti. Panama is doing great since Noriega was removed from power.

The cleaning of Maduros leaders will be the next operation, this is not over.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Yes, some of the lighter crudes are feedstock for US gulf coast refineries. Refineries are designed to handle specific crude types and the ultra low gravity oil is not easy, cheap or desirable. It usually sells at a discount and requires more expensive, higher grade crude to blend with, just to get the stuff to flow through pipelines.

I’m an upstream guy, @WAB is our resident refining expert. He can provide more and better information on the problems of heavy crude. Canada has a lot of similar stuff.

 

[mdwest]

A 303b barrel bonus.

Probably should research that a bit..

They have the worlds largest proven reserve…

But are the 12th largest producer… producing less than 1/7 the number of barrels of the largest (the US)…

Prior to Chavez, 98% of Venezuelan oil was controlled by international firms. The overwhelming majority by Royal Dutch Shell and Standard Oil. US and Europeans paid the cost of establishing the oil infrastructure in the country.

During the second wave of nationalization of oil in 2007 under Chavez, Shell and others had their assets seized by the Venezuelan government, which promptly ran those assets into the ground.

Restoring Venezuelas oil production to normal levels (pre Chavez) today it is estimated would cost $250b and take 7-8 years.

So.. what it amounts to is… there is a ton of oil… that isn’t being produced, and won’t be produced without a quarter trillion dollar investment and nearly a decade of time.. which the Venezuelan government doesnt have…

Whether they are friendly with the US or not is of no consequence…

If the US and Europe pay a second time to obtain what they already paid to obtain a first time, then the oil would be a return on the investment.. and would be a risky investment at that based on prior history…

It’s not like the US is absorbing Venezuela..

And, as stated already, the US doesn’t need VZ oil…

China however does…

The winning play isn’t to help the Venezuelans tap into their proven reserve..

The winning play is to NOT allow the Chinese do it..

And not allow them to extract the coal reserves.. the large gold reserves, the large bauxite reserves, etc (which, oh by the way, were also originally paid for by the US and Europe, and then nationalized /and then run into the ground)…

The US is far better off having VZ not producing large quantities of oil, not cutting huge swaths of timber, not mining huge quantity of bauxite.. and then selling it on the open market (to the Russians and Chinese)…

 

[BonUm16]

Yes, Venezuela has a massive quantity of oil, however most of it is very low quality stuff. It’s very low gravity. Most oils float on top of water. The very low gravity crude in the Orinoco is so low that it sinks in water. This makes it hard to produce and refine. One of the products Venezuela has exported is called Orinoco emulsion. It’s basically very low gravity, thick crude, mixed with water. It’s used in several Caribbean countries to generate electricity.

Apologies in advance but all I kept hearing was “Sail away, sail away, sail away…” while reading your post.

 

[PARA45]

Smoking a Maduro cigar to celebrate Maduro’s capture My Venezuelan born wife is beyond herself. I think if I ask her for a new rifle she would say yes to one or two.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Orimulsion - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[mdwest]

Smoking a Maduro cigar to celebrate Maduro’s capture My Venezuelan born wife is beyond herself. I think if I ask her for a new rifle she would say yes to one or two.

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Strike while the iron is hot!

It’s time for a Rigby!

 

[SaintPanzer]

So here's the thing. I'm generally on board with getting rid of the guy, and the legalese behind "arrest and return" is a nice fig leaf. Not buying the "he did it for oil" argument, and as far as how is it different from Ukraine, well, if you can't see the difference between a snatch and grab arrest raid and occupation, well I can't help you.

But it also now sets a precedent. Suppose for a moment PLA SOF does the same to Lai Ching-te with the accusation that he is breaking a national security law. What counterargument then?

That law of unintended consequences can be a bitch.

As far as bets that it was Delta, well, that's a sucker bet. I mean, that is their mission, right? Snatch and grab. If they wanted him dead, it would have been Team Six. That's like betting if tomahawks were launched from an undersea platform, it was probably an SSN or SSBN, or if long range air transport was accomplished, it was probably AMC.

 

[pilar]

Yes, Venezuela has a massive quantity of oil, however most of it is very low quality stuff. It’s very low gravity. Most oils float on top of water. The very low gravity crude in the Orinoco is so low that it sinks in water. This makes it hard to produce and refine. One of the products Venezuela has exported is called Orinoco emulsion. It’s basically very low gravity, thick crude, mixed with water. It’s used in several Caribbean countries to generate electricity.

Yeah it’s high sulfur and low quality, but our gulf coast refineries are engineered to refine the “ crappy stuff” into diesel fuel, more diesel fuel = cheaper farming and transportation cost “ trains & tractor trucks “
That = cheaper food , cheaper food = better cost of living , isn’t that what the people voted for better cost of living?
If we gotta step on some dictatorship corruption riddled country to make it happen then so be it, F China and India ( the only other countries that can refine sour oil)

 

[Datchew]

Smoking a Maduro cigar to celebrate Maduro’s capture My Venezuelan born wife is beyond herself. I think if I ask her for a new rifle she would say yes to one or two.

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I'm in central Florida for the new Year seei g fam and friends.
Played golf with an old friend from my phosphate mine reclamation days during school.
He's an expat that fled Venezuela.

He's not exactly down in the mouth.
Think I'll have a maduro cigar soon as well. Great idea!

 

[Scott CWO]

Smoking a Maduro cigar to celebrate Maduro’s capture My Venezuelan born wife is beyond herself. I think if I ask her for a new rifle she would say yes to one or two.

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I'm pulling for you but it sounds like you are in for a good night either way!