I think it is more serious then that.
They are grinding forward continuously, for 4 years.
Maybe they have thrown everything they had, but so did the west coalition and yet Russians are still moving forward (inch by inch)
And on global level this has caused biggest crises in western world in history. Within Nato and within EU.
Does it fail? Situation in development. We will see. But present trending is bad.
Does Zelensky fail? His target was: kick the Russians out, join the EU, join Nato. Where is he now on that?
Counter offensive failed
Kursk intrusion failed.
Infrastructure of the country ruined, no navy (all gone), and no significant influence on battle field with air force, despite getting F16.
Equipment and manpower lost, and now everything is in defensive retreat. Inch by inch backwards while russians move inch by inch forward
Not even media, or PR is mentioning any type of next spring, summer, or winter counter offensive. Counteroffensive is out of equation.
It is very hard to estimate losses, but for me - very solid indicator is KIA and POW exchange.
There is much higher numbers of KIA and POW on Ukrainian side, then the ones returned to Russia from Ukraine, as reported around. Easy to search various sources on KIA and POW exchange and numbers.
This rougly corresponds in ratio of artillery shells fired. Russian have advantage in shells, glide bombs, and missile systems.
Moreover Zelensky term expired.
I would say this was a jump from modern day "Winston Churchill" (as presented by media and PR with his recycled "we shall fight on the beaches" speech few years ago) down to actual Bashar al Assad type puppet with expired presidency and on life support on foreign infusion, aid and finance followed by corruption scandals.
I think that is a profoundly wrong assessment, but the Russian propagandists have done a remarkable job planting exactly that in the minds of many in the West and, unfortunately, within the current US administration.
The Russian armed forces, Army, Navy, Air Force, and security forces, which they self-described as the second most powerful military in the world at the start of 2022, expected a 3-week campaign to "liberate" Ukraine. This war is now about to enter its fifth year.
That supposed second most powerful military in the world that they spent twenty years developing has largely been destroyed on the Ukrainian steppes. Their air force can not operate in Ukrainian airspace, their Black Sea Fleet - what remains of it - is cowering in port, and their army is now composed of the dregs of Russian society.
At the cost of what the US fairly conservatively estimates to 1.2 to 1.3 million total casualties, the Russian military has managed to seize just less than 1% of additional Ukrainian territory since January of 2024. Estimated loss ratios over the last two years run 2.5 - 4 to 1 Russian to Ukrainian. Those losses are indeed severe for Ukraine, but are gradually becoming catastrophic for Russia as it maintains what appear to be ever more mindless infantry attacks.
NATO has provided nothing to Ukraine that in anyway undermines NATO capabilities. Indeed, Putin has sparked a renaissance in NATO defense investment that is the last thing he would have intended in February 2022. Even worse the excellent capabilities of the Finnish and Swedish armed forces are being swiftly integrated into the NATO defense structure. In other words the correlation of forces is rapidly shifting to the ever greater disfavor of Russia.
I have no idea how accurate Putin's understanding of the military situation is. My assessment, and I am in fairly good company, is that he is desperate for some "obvious" victory whereby he can force a friendly US administration to force NATO and Ukraine into a ceasefire that can be claimed as success.
History is not on Russia's side in this conflict. Over the last two hundred years, with the exception of the Great Patriotic War (with enormous US logistics and economic support), Russia , in whatever form, usually is defeated.
Based on polls conducted as recently as last month, Zelensky still has strong support of the Ukrainian people. NATO/EU, while carefully balancing its relationship with the US, is still providing strong military support.
Finally, this is the most inaccurate comment in your post - "
but so did the west coalition." NATO has sent nothing that materially undermines its warfighting capabilities. Indeed, many of those capabilities, have been sharpened in supporting Ukraine - particularly intel and targeting. Every member that matters, has increased the pace of their military modernization efforts, Poland and Germany are currently leading that particular revolution, and the Russian military, in its current condition would stand little chance against them in a conventional conflict - much less the rest of NATO. That will only become more true as the gap widens over the next few years.
Putin has committed the greatest strategic blunder of this century. Regrettably, my country's current government seems determined to offer him a reprieve.
