Politics

[Rocked and Loaded]

 

[SaintPanzer]

With all this talk about people moving, and then voting for the same policies they left, I want to reiterate that Boise remains my favorite California city.

 

[mdwest]

Most people have voted with their wallets and will continue to do so. Trump got elected with the promise of a better economy. People are not seeing his promise being fulfilled at the moment.

It has always been "what have you done for me lately" for most.

I am genuinely confused when I hear people saying the economy hasnt improved...

The stock market is hovering in the high 48,000's and has reached record highs in the last few weeks..

401K's are performing on average 8% better in 2025 than they did in 2024..

Inflation is hovering around 3% which historically has been considered a good rate, and is substantially better than what was seen in 22, 23, and 24..

Most food costs have increased at a rate lower than inflation.. and in some cases have decreased (albeit marginally) compared to 22, 23, and 24.. Eggs for example are 4.7% cheaper despite 3% inflation..

Gas prices are down and most O&G folks are saying that they will continue to go down in 2026..

Unemployment continues to hover around 4% which historically has been considered a reasonable number.. and is also the same as it was in 2024..

Interest rates are down from the previous few years... and are predicted to continue to come down in 2026.. most economists are saying mortgage rates will get below 6% by the end of next year.. considering they were hovering between 7.5 and 8% from the end of 2023 and through most of 2024, I'd say thats an improvement..

and all of this is despite the tariffs that leftists swore were going to cripple the economy and cause record breaking inflation, etc..etc..

I get that things havent recovered to pre-biden numbers.. and that we'll likely never see gas below $2 a gallon again...

but for anyone to think things arent better financially in this country than they have been over the prior 4 years is a bit beyond my understanding..

 

[Doug3006]

Bow hunting, I wonder?

Martial arts.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

One thing I wonder is where the stock market, optimism and investment would have been if the tariffs would’ve been handled differently. This is anecdotal but I just don’t see the optimism that was present in the first Trump term

 

[spike.t]

US transportation secretary will cut flights from Friday due to shutdown

Flight capacity will be cut at major airports as air traffic controllers report issues with fatigue amid staff shortages.

www.bbc.com

 

[mdwest]

I dont see the optimism either.. but... the numbers kinda speak for themselves.. the DJA peaked at 30K right as Trump left office during his first term..

It then stagnated and later dumped to 28,660 in 2022 under Biden..

Leading up to the election in late October 2024 it peaked at 47,700.. but if you read what many of the economists were saying at the time, they largely attributed the big boost because Biden was out of the race, and there was a lot of momentum with the Trump campaign.. no one meaningful attributed it to any Biden policy, actions, etc..

and now 11 months after the election we're still in the 47K range (no dump).. and were sitting on a record high of 48,040 just 1 week ago on October 29th..

And.. most economists are saying to expect solid growth in 2026.. conservative estimates are calling for a 10% bump in the S&P 500.. more aggressive models and analysts are saying we could experience a 30% bump int he S&P 500 in 2026..

And unlike the first 3 years of the Biden administration where everyone argued about whether or not we were in recession.. only the most liberal of economists are saying that a 2026 recession is even a remote possibility..

 

[Boyd Brooks]

I am genuinely confused when I hear people saying the economy hasnt improved...

I am not confused by this at all. The people who are complaining are the ones waiting for bigger hand outs from the new government.
There is no way to turn around from the present state without changing the education system. Teachers are unionized and embrace socialist views everywhere. Until this changes they will indoctrinate ALL the children they teach. We are fighting a losing battle, and I feel all we be lost before I’m placed in my six feet of private real estate.

 

[Russ16]

I am genuinely confused when I hear people saying the economy hasnt improved...

The stock market is hovering in the high 48,000's and has reached record highs in the last few weeks..

401K's are performing on average 8% better in 2025 than they did in 2024..

Inflation is hovering around 3% which historically has been considered a good rate, and is substantially better than what was seen in 22, 23, and 24..

Most food costs have increased at a rate lower than inflation.. and in some cases have decreased (albeit marginally) compared to 22, 23, and 24.. Eggs for example are 4.7% cheaper despite 3% inflation..

Gas prices are down and most O&G folks are saying that they will continue to go down in 2026..

Unemployment continues to hover around 4% which historically has been considered a reasonable number.. and is also the same as it was in 2024..

Interest rates are down from the previous few years... and are predicted to continue to come down in 2026.. most economists are saying mortgage rates will get below 6% by the end of next year.. considering they were hovering between 7.5 and 8% from the end of 2023 and through most of 2024, I'd say thats an improvement..

and all of this is despite the tariffs that leftists swore were going to cripple the economy and cause record breaking inflation, etc..etc..

I get that things havent recovered to pre-biden numbers.. and that we'll likely never see gas below $2 a gallon again...

but for anyone to think things arent better financially in this country than they have been over the prior 4 years is a bit beyond my understanding..

I can just tell you from my monthly budget tracking costs are higher than ever. Especially food and other regular purchases like toiletries etc. Buying essentially the same items is about 20% higher on my grocery costs than 4 years ago. And I don’t even think about going out to eat even though I can afford it—it just isn’t worth the price. I can absorb it because of my position in the workforce but it hits many people much harder.

The stock market and 401k are terrible measures of peoples day to day financial picture. Most people don’t hold significant individual investments that they access on a regular basis and 401k returns are realized at retirement. People view their economic picture through a shorter term lense.

I’m not saying the economy is good or bad. Just why people don’t think it’s good.

 

[mdwest]

I can just tell you from my monthly budget tracking costs are higher than ever. Especially food and other regular purchases like toiletries etc. Buying essentially the same items is about 20% higher on my grocery costs than 4 years ago. And I don’t even think about going out to eat even though I can afford it—it just isn’t worth the price. I can absorb it because of my position in the workforce but it hits many people much harder.

The stock market and 401k are terrible measures of peoples day to day financial picture. Most people don’t hold significant individual investments that they access on a regular basis and 401k returns are realized at retirement. People view their economic picture through a shorter term lense.

I’m not saying the economy is good or bad. Just why people don’t think it’s good.

I dont doubt grocery costs are 20% higher than 4 years ago.. the cost of goods in the US increased 23.4% during the 4 years of the Biden Administration..

you had 1 ok year of inflation under Biden (his first year in office).. then 2 years of outrageous inflation.. followed by a final year of slightly high inflation (4.1%)...

no one is going to get back the entirety of the 23.4% increase that happened during those 4 years..

but.. there has been a slight to moderate dip in prices of some of the things people were bitching the hardest about over the last few years (gas is down, eggs are down, etc).. and inflation is now back under control at 3%..

I'll take that over another 9.1% increase like we got across the entire economy in June of 2022, which then got compounded by another 18 months of spiked inflation before things got reasonable again..

Scott Bessent isnt going to unfuck 4 years of absolutely atrocious fiscal policy in just 12 months..

But what he's done so far certainly has kept things from continuing to go in the horrible direction they had been going.. and theres no denying that improvement has occured (again, see everything in the earlier post.. lower inflation, higher stock market, higher performing retirement accounts, low unemployment, lower cost of gas, lower cost of consumables, etc.. )..

 

[Brent in Az]

I don't measure things by the stock market either, but how much money comes out of my wallet for my day to day needs.
It has improved very little since the Biden dumpster fire economy. Particularly at the grocery store.

 

[Russ16]

I dont doubt grocery costs are 20% higher than 4 years ago.. the cost of goods in the US increased 23.4% during the 4 years of the Biden Administration..

you had 1 ok year of inflation under Biden (his first year in office).. then 2 years of outrageous inflation.. followed by a final year of slightly high inflation (4.1%)...

no one is going to get back the entirety of the 23.4% increase that happened during those 4 years..

but.. there has been a slight to moderate dip in prices of some of the things people were bitching the hardest about over the last few years (gas is down, eggs are down, etc).. and inflation is now back under control at 3%..

I'll take that over another 9.1% increase like we got across the entire economy in June of 2022, which then got compounded by another 18 months of spiked inflation before things got reasonable again..

Scott Bessent isnt going to unfuck 4 years of absolutely atrocious fiscal policy in just 12 months..

But what he's done so far certainly has kept things from continuing to go in the horrible direction they had been going.. and theres no denying that improvement has occured (again, see everything in the earlier post.. lower inflation, higher stock market, higher performing retirement accounts, low unemployment, lower cost of gas, lower cost of consumables, etc.. )..

I wasn’t saying Biden policies were good or Trump policies were good. I was answering the question by the previous poster who said he didn’t understand why people think the economy isn’t doing well.

99% of people judge the economy based on their monthly bills. Those bills have gone up and stayed up mostly faster than wages. It doesn’t matter why or what happens next that’s what impacts the general view of the economy.

My personal economy is just fine. And frankly was even better under Biden but I’m smart enough to know the two weren’t related.

 

[PARA45]

Most people have voted with their wallets and will continue to do so. Trump got elected with the promise of a better economy. People are not seeing his promise being fulfilled at the moment.

It has always been "what have you done for me lately" for most.

And they want things done yesterday.

 

[Brent in Az]

And they want things done yesterday.

True.
Patience is not one of my strong points, except when hunting or fishing....lol.

 

[mdwest]

I don't measure things by the stock market either, but how much money comes out of my wallet for my day to day needs.
It has improved very little since the Biden dumpster fire economy. Particularly at the grocery store.

The only way its going to improve is for wages to go up.. and that takes time..

Assume you get a 4% increase this year.. and inflation holds at 3%.. its going to take a very long time for you to notice any real impact..

Major purchases like buying a house could have a substantial impact.. if you closed on a house in 2022 with an 8% mortgage and now can secure a mortgage at 5.9% you'd see a pretty significant change in your monthly outgo..

But if we're talking day to day purchases like buying groceries or a new set of shoes, etc.. the savings are going to be small and incremental..

When you have back to back years where inflation goes nuts, while wages are stagnated like we saw during the Biden years it doesnt take long at all to feel the pain..

recovery always takes longer..

Its only been a year.. the first task was to put a tourniquet on the wound and stop the bleed.. I think there is plenty of evidence that Bessent/Lutnick/Trump collectively have accomplished that.. the next task is to start helping the wound to heal.. I think we'll see a bit more of that in 2026 if the economists are right with their predictions (lower interest rates on cars and houses.. higher interest rates paid on financial tools like CD's, savings accounts, t-bills, etc... lower costs on fuel.. etc..etc..).

But I dont personally expect us to get back to 2020 levels of comfort for at least 7-8 years.. and thats going to take getting a solid R in office in 2028..

When the economy crashed in 2008 it took until 2016 for median household incomes to recover to pre 2008 levels.. it took until 2014 just to get unemployment back to pre-crash levels..

We arent going to see a rapid recovery from Biden era fiscal policy either..

 

[PARA45]

The only way its going to improve is for wages to go up.. and that takes time..

Assume you get a 4% increase this year.. and inflation holds at 3%.. its going to take a very long time for you to notice any real impact..

Major purchases like buying a house could have a substantial impact.. if you closed on a house in 2022 with an 8% mortgage and now can secure a mortgage at 5.9% you'd see a pretty significant change in your monthly outgo..

But if we're talking day to day purchases like buying groceries or a new set of shoes, etc.. the savings are going to be small and incremental..

When you have back to back years where inflation goes nuts, while wages are stagnated like we saw during the Biden years it doesnt take long at all to feel the pain..

recovery always takes longer..

Its only been a year.. the first task was to put a tourniquet on the wound and stop the bleed.. I think there is plenty of evidence that Bessent/Lutnick/Trump collectively have accomplished that.. the next task is to start helping the wound to heal.. I think we'll see a bit more of that in 2026 if the economists are right with their predictions (lower interest rates on cars and houses.. higher interest rates paid on financial tools like CD's, savings accounts, t-bills, etc... lower costs on fuel.. etc..etc..).

But I dont personally expect us to get back to 2020 levels of comfort for at least 7-8 years.. and thats going to take getting a solid R in office in 2028..

When the economy crashed in 2008 it took until 2016 for median household incomes to recover to pre 2008 levels.. it took until 2014 just to get unemployment back to pre-crash levels..

We arent going to see a rapid recovery from Biden era fiscal policy either..

Dave, some of the interest rate have gone down, and a good bit. The Credit Union I used to finance my Pickup truck, had the interest rates at 5.9% in 2023, and I just check with them, and their rates are currently sitting at 3.9%.

 

[Brent in Az]

Once inflation creates escalating prices, rarely do they come back down by much, especially on tariff laden goods.
I doubt we will ever see pre- Biden prices.
Hopefully my 401K will benefit over the next few years. Who knows? Fortunately my pay has just increased by 17.5%. A boon to me in relation to the economic state many are in. But I still don't want to give that away to inflation.
I lost over 7 figures in the debacle that started in 2008. Many, including myself, never recovered from that. A harsh lesson learned.

 

[Brent in Az]

Dave, some of the interest rate have gone down, and a good bit. The Credit Union I used to finance my Pickup truck, had the interest rates at 5.9% in 2023, and I just check with them, and their rates are currently sitting at 3.9%.

My Credit Union is similar. During the early Biden presidency I was at 5.5%. they have come down some in the last year.
They have also had CD rates up to 5.15% on occasion.

 

[mdwest]

Dave, some of the interest rate have gone down, and a good bit. The Credit Union I used to finance my Pickup truck, had the interest rates at 5.9% in 2023, and I just check with them, and their rates are currently sitting at 3.9%.

We locked in on a great deal for our youngest a few months ago.. we bought her a new Kia.. they were offering 2.9%..

Whats funny (sad funny, not haha funny ).. is I would have walked out and told them to kiss my oversized ass 5 years ago if I was offered 2.9%...

I dont think I've paid more than 1.9% on a vehicle in probably the last 12-15 years.. we financed volvos, BMW's, infinities, etc.. all at 1.9% or lower (got one vehicle on 0% APR way back in the day)..

There were times we had cash to pay for vehicles, but had to ask ourselves why do that when the money they are offering to finance the vehicle with is at lower rates than our cash can make us through 100% secure investments and savings..

Today I think anyone getting anything below 6 on a vehicle is super happy..

 

[rookhawk]

Dave, some of the interest rate have gone down, and a good bit. The Credit Union I used to finance my Pickup truck, had the interest rates at 5.9% in 2023, and I just check with them, and their rates are currently sitting at 3.9%.

That is a great rate on a vehicle. If you are going to finance, I strongly encourage you to lock in today's rates for vehicle loans. The evidence is disturbing and overwhelming that there is an auto loan crisis brewing. Massive Repo and Default rates have been building in recent months and when sh&t hits the fan, you better believe that auto loan rates are going to skyrocket when they price in higher risk and lower resale values.