A long read, but worth your while....
Hi folks. I’m a commercial pilot. I live in San Diego CA. I’m used to math calculations and formulas so I want to help clear up a lot of confusion I see about the Coronavirus. I have meticulously looked at CDC data and other sources for what I am about to say. I see far too many confused people and people spreading incorrect data, numbers, statistics, etc. Please, please, share this so people can actually be correctly informed about this situation.
Here is the math, because calculations are the ONLY facts that matter.
The USA CDC reports that common flu (in USA) effects 10% of our population (327 million total / 10) every year and has an average CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of ~.1%. (one tenth of one percent). That is an average death of roughly only 1 in 1000 people out of the 10% who get it each year.
Depending on the year, roughly 20,000 to 60,000 people will die from common flu each year or up to 600,000 worldwide. For example last year it was 34,000 people in USA for 2019. Some years its been as high as 60,000 and in rare times 80,000. It obviously fluctuates yearly but 10% is the mean average since records began. You can confirm this on the USA CDC website as I have. Please read on...
This Coronavirus (SARS Cov-2 a.k.a. COVID-19) is a virus type which is in the same family which causes SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and has, so far, killed a much greater average of approximately 3 out of every 100 people affected (that's out of 100 not 1000!!) This makes this virus, at very minimum 30x greater in lethality. What is also worse is that they are saying 15-20% of people who get it will require hospitalization. This is HUGE compared to standard influenza which is around 5% or less as most people recover from “regular flu” in two weeks without medical assistance, need for oxygen, prescription medication, etc.
Regardless, this high rate of hospitalization for Coronavirus is the primary reason why all the hospitals in Wuhan were so overrun and unable to cope and keep up with the sudden and massive outbreak.
It was just too much too fast.
Also know that CFR and R naught (R0) (logarithm for transmission to others) are totally different things and can be very different. The CFR will typically trend the same but R naught can be wildly different. CFR will also be higher where there is a high R0 and people who may have been able to survive will not survive due lack of medical resources. This too was an issue for Wuhan.
For example, the study done by Los Alamos laboratory last week said in Wuhan the R0 was up to ~6.8 and we can attribute this not only to a very infectious virus but also to a large city where everyone lives in apartment towers, uses elevators and are in essence always very close to one another. In contrast, less populated areas will always have a lower R0. However, this does not negate that the virus is easily transmitted, just that it needs “bodies in range” to do so.
Next, this virus seems to have a much a higher rate of infection and transmission than regular flu...but again..99% of the data is still from China alone so it has to be looked at in context until more data for other countries, and other areas of population densities can be reviewed. However, if viewed “as is” it may certainly mean that a lot more than just 10% of the population will get this each year (like regular flu) and may also get it much faster and or easier due to aerosolization, ability to live on surfaces, etc. But what is most worrisome is its ability to transmit without showing symptoms and that you can possibly transmit it to others for a few weeks without having symptoms! Average incubation though is ~5 days.
Are you starting to get the picture? This is what really makes it so dangerous, meaning the high rate of infection and transmission and its ability to essentially “hide in plain sight”. This and the fact that it has a CFR, much higher than average flu, as well the high rate for complications and hospitalization. It really is a recipe for disaster.
On the good side however, reports are saying 70-80% of people (young healthy people) who are affected are said to likely have “mild or normal” flu like reactions. But again, carefully look at all the previous numbers I’ve given about just how many people that can be! Also be very aware that many younger people, healthy people, have died too. This worries me a lot because the news is not taking about this fact at all. Why are young healthy people dying!!?
Moving on, it’s already well known that our own USA hospitals are over-taxed each year from the common flu..so now let’s just pile on this huge pandemic with either an equal 10% more of population or even more than that and see what happens to our medical systems.
What do you think would happen? Will you be able to get sufficient medical help if it occurs when our system is already over-taxed? My thoughts are that if it breaks out in your area in any major way, the likely answer will be no! You will face the same kind of issues seen in Wuhan.
Lastly, if you have any pre-existing health conditions such as being a smoker, being overweight, having heart disease, cancer, COPD, asthma, or are immunodeficient, then you are most certainly at a much higher risk of hospitalization from this virus and if over 50 your chances already start to increase dramatically that you may be hospitalized. And if over 70 you have much more chance you will die, regardless of being sick or healthy. Anyone over 70, or 80 with some health issues will most likely die but also know that many die with the common flu already too. But damn, what if you got both!!!
And I hate to say this, but if you are around 50 right now as I am, prepare yourself that this may in fact be what is going to kill your parents in the next few years. This isn’t fear mongering folks, it’s reality. This, in addition to regular flu, is going to wipe out a lot of senior citizens. If you were so unlucky to contract both viruses I’d say its 100%.
Getting back to the high rate of hospitalization (for really any age group) imagine being in one or both of the most at risk groups (over 50 and or sick) and now imagine all the hospitals within 100 or more miles being overrun with the same type of people as you and all the other “normal flu” victims. How will you get the care you need to try and survive? This gets back to why CFR also increases in areas with high R0. Does the US government really seem like they are taking any sort of appropriate proactive actions? Do they have enough test kits? Are we testing people proactively? NO! It's all being stated as reactive precautions. I've yet to hear solid pro-activity.
China is building several new hospitals. What is USA doing? We are just washing our hands and are being told to just act normal. Literally nothing else.
It’s unbelievable.
Now let’s look at China’s outbreak. Hubei Province where this began has 58.5 Million people. So lets just say under equal USA “seasonal flu” conditions that 10% of that population already has or will contract COVID-19 over the next one, two or three years. That’s 5,850,000 people affected (5.85 million out of the 58 million in Hubei alone).
If 2.5% of that number die (and that is a current low average CFR of deaths/cases) then this means 146,250 people die with an average of 24,375 per month (stated over a 6 month flu season per year..or ~12k /mo. for 12 months).
So over a “flu season” That’s 24 thousand a month dead for 6 months long every year if on average only a meager 10% of the population is affected each year.
In contrast, if it had only been the comparative USA .1% (1 in 1000 for common flu CFR), then these two numbers would only be 5,850 with an average of 975 per month over 6 months. Look at the huge difference of these examples.
Are you awake now? These differences are in fact huge.
And a good point here is when people like the head of disease from the Mayo Clinic has said things like China has not been totally honest about reporting real numbers, this could well be a prime example!!! The math just doesn’t lie. (He said this live on TV two weeks ago. I watched it with my own eyes).
While the current deaths are listed at only 2,860 and counting (as of 2/27/2020)... just remember that most of this is still only data from “known test cases” in China, which is a very secretive communist country. So..who really knows the real truth! However, let’s consider that we do know how infectious (everyone) is saying this is (the Diamond Princess ship quickly proved that) and then take a look at all my math again which as I said before is using a basic low-end 10% estimate based on the average population infection of the common seasonal flu.
Let's take Wuhan, a city of 11 million, and say 20% caught this virus (.2) that's 2,200,000 people affected. And now let's say because of the high R0 discussed earlier that a reasonable 4% (.04) of those people died because a lot of people couldn’t get medical care. That's 88,000 people potentially dead. I'm not saying that's the case but even if you cut that in four squares it's still 22,000 when only what..2800 is the current reported number? I call bullshit.
So when you heard of those wild reports a week ago of overworked crematorium workers loosing their minds in China alI can say is... the math doesn’t lie! They were probably stacking them like cord wood three deep.
Tell me I’m lying. I’m not lying.
In another comparison the Spanish Flu of 1918 supposedly had a CFR of 2%. China alone has already surpassed that. And Iran is currently at something huge like 20% dead (!!!huge!!!) And certainly this virus will weigh very very heavily on undeveloped 3rd world nations where the CFR could be much greater or perhaps be more like SARS originally was at 11%. We don’t know for certain.
And...it could also mutate!!!
What is also most worrisome about all this is the financial fallout. The stock market took it’s largest drop in US history today (you read that right)..and we are only at 6 weeks into this situation! So don’t think for a single second that this will not affect you or that this is somehow “just a flu”. It’s anything but that. You need to share this with people to wake them up. It's time to come down from the mountain, get off your high horses, and grab your calculators.
Next, I want to say that the media is certainly downplaying the reality of this situation. (likely for the first time in history as they usually dramatize these things) but are in my opinion actually downplaying it to carefully not incite fear and mass panic. Only this week has it started to be a lead story on national news. It hasn't been for the last month.
They, meaning our financial overlords, want to keep people working as long as possible. And sure, that is easy to understand why. Chaos is certainly a very bad thing for everyone. But also take note that our leaders have shelters and bunkers to hide in if ever needed. All the 1% who control and steer the media don’t really care about the rest of us. They may pretend to, but ultimately they do not. But you already knew this didn’t you! And I'm not just pointing at the President. I'm talking about all of them. Every politician, business or corporation that keeps the gears turning.
It’s all “don’t worry..just keep working” and “it will all be ok”. Of course they will not say anything to the contrary. Why would they! So YOU have to read between the lines. What do your eyes, ears, and gut instincts tell you.
Things are definitely not "ok". Even if the total "reported" deaths seem low (known / reported deaths) I just don't trust that whatsoever if the CFR is over 3% and this is as easily transmitted as they say it is. Again.. math! Time will tell of course but if we DO NOT take action now, meaning us, the common citizens, we can guarantee this is going to blow up in the USA. And this is especially if we don’t take some serious and hard approaches much like China and Japan are doing. We have to get serious about this ..AND FAST.
We've never had anything like this happen in the USA so people are blind to it. They don't think it could happen here and that my fellow Americans is called a Trojan Horse!
If you still don’t believe me, carefully re-read all I’ve said. I think you can see what I'm saying is honest and accurate. I have no ulterior motives in what I am saying. Please open your eyes. Ask yourself these questions;
When was the last time in your entire life that over 10% of the entire planets population was suddenly under full lock down or quarantine, all inside of a month??? When was the last time you saw everyone who is “just dealing with the flu” in full hazmat isolation suits? When was the last time you saw any city using giant fog machine disinfectant trucks side-by-side on streets? When was the last time you ever heard of young, healthy 34-year-old doctors dying from pneumonia within 14 days of becoming infected???
The answer is never. So yeah. This is damn sure serious.
It’s time to wake up. Stop being willfully ignorant. Open your eyes to what is really going on. Don’t be a sheep. The media is downplaying this to not cause panic in what is most certainly an actual panic situation, especially for those most vulnerable. But don’t panic... prepare! Be ready and isolate yourself as much as possible for the next few months. If this is so easily spread then do your part to not allow it to. If it doesn't get worse, fine, but let's all be safe than sorry! And make no mistake, it is coming and it spreading right now, somewhere. So the best we can do is to do our very best to help slow it down. We have to.
Think of your friends, think of your family. We all have to help.
All the statistics and data I’ve said in this is online for you to confirm. All the USA statistics I pulled from the CDC website. The China data is based on what they have reported so far and is what the WHO and CDC have to go by until more countries have enough cases to confirm / deny CFR rates.
But if you go by Iran's latest data.. yeah this is bad. It’s very, very bad.
Hope for the best but expect the worst. Do the math yourself.
You have all been warned!
United we Stand. Divided we Fall.
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