Politics

fourfive8 said:

What is the failure rate for MAID attempts? Do botched MAID attempts get this much attention?

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This is the first place that I have heard about any failed attempts. If you don’t research your own news, you only get Liberal narrative news in Canada.

This has been showing up for 3 years now here in Canada. Anytime my Arizona friends try to send me news or just any post with news, you get this censorship label. Last week my friend tried to send a news video of a Maricopa county sheriff’s helicopter rescue on the Hasseyempa River. Had to send it in an email.

Hank2211 said:

Mike, what do you think President Trump might do if Canada were to curtail or cutoff some or all of the 3 million barrels of oil a day we ship to the US, or the billions of cubic feet of natural gas, or if we were to decide we needed a dam on certain rivers which originate in Canada but eventually flow into the US (look the Columbia River)?

While it looks like crazy talk, a lot of war gaming looks that way. . . . Until . . .

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The sad truth is… if it ever came to a US invasion, Canada couldn’t hold the line for even a week without immediate significant assistance from Europe.

Its military, while full of great people, is in complete and total shit shape. Its equipment is in disarray, it relies on critical supply chains from the US to maintain much of its equipment. It lacks the training budget and hasn’t committed to proper levels of training in years. Its population and most of its economy is centered in just a few concentrated areas, and Canada lacks the economy to fix or change any of this rapidly.

Then factor in gun laws in Canada that have restricted the number of people that own firearms and what types of firearms they have and there’s not a big militia or guerilla threat either…

Carney is saber rattling in the interest of political posturing. If Canada is actually preparing or wargaming or training for such an event, he’s wasting Canadian tax dollars. The far better solution to Canadas problem is diplomatic. It doesn’t have a prayer trying to take a defensive military posture.

Look how quickly Iraq was completely overrun… and their military and para military forces were substantially larger and at least equally if not better equipped …

Granted the US fucked around for the next 20 years and didn’t accomplish much..

But that doesn’t change the fact that the entire country was overrun and Baghdad fell on the 13th day with the 3rd I.D. and other major units occupying every block of the city.

I’m pretty sure Canada would fall faster. Montreal and Toronto, Vancouver, etc are all a whole lot closer to the US than Baghdad, Mosul, Erbil, and Kirkuk. It doesn’t take ships to move heavy mech to an invasion north. Just trains, roadways and airfields. All of which are plentiful in both the US and Canada.

mdwest said:

The sad truth is… if it ever came to a US invasion, Canada couldn’t hold the line for even a week without immediate significant assistance from Europe.

Its military, while full of great people, is in complete and total shit shape. Its equipment is in disarray, it relies on critical supply chains from the US to maintain much of its equipment. It lacks the training budget and hasn’t committed to proper levels of training in years. Its population and most of its economy is centered in just a few concentrated areas, and Canada lacks the economy to fix or change any of this rapidly.

Then factor in gun laws in Canada that have restricted the number of people that own firearms and what types of firearms they have and there’s not a big militia or guerilla threat either…

Carney is saber rattling in the interest of political posturing. If Canada is actually preparing or wargaming or training for such an event, he’s wasting Canadian tax dollars. The far better solution to Canadas problem is diplomatic. It doesn’t have a prayer trying to take a defensive military posture.

Look how quickly Iraq was completely overrun… and their military and para military forces were substantially larger and at least equally if not better equipped …

Granted the US fucked around for the next 20 years and didn’t accomplish much..

But that doesn’t change the fact that the entire country was overrun and Baghdad fell on the 13th day with the 3rd I.D. and other major units occupying every block of the city.

I’m pretty sure Canada would fall faster. Montreal and Toronto, Vancouver, etc are all a whole lot closer to the US than Baghdad, Mosul, Erbil, and Kirkuk. It doesn’t take ships to move heavy mech to an invasion north. Just trains, roadways and airfields. All of which are plentiful in both the US and Canada.

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I strongly believe that those remaining few with firearms in Canada would throw on a Stars and Stripes patch and help out our American friends!
Just let us know when you’re coming, so we can suit up accordingly.
Oh, and thanks for giving us credit for a week to hold you guys off, but I think you give us 6 days and 23 hours to much credit.

mdwest said:

The sad truth is… if it ever came to a US invasion, Canada couldn’t hold the line for even a week without immediate significant assistance from Europe.

Its military, while full of great people, is in complete and total shit shape. Its equipment is in disarray, it relies on critical supply chains from the US to maintain much of its equipment. It lacks the training budget and hasn’t committed to proper levels of training in years. Its population and most of its economy is centered in just a few concentrated areas, and Canada lacks the economy to fix or change any of this rapidly.

Then factor in gun laws in Canada that have restricted the number of people that own firearms and what types of firearms they have and there’s not a big militia or guerilla threat either…

Carney is saber rattling in the interest of political posturing. If Canada is actually preparing or wargaming or training for such an event, he’s wasting Canadian tax dollars. The far better solution to Canadas problem is diplomatic. It doesn’t have a prayer trying to take a defensive military posture.

Look how quickly Iraq was completely overrun… and their military and para military forces were substantially larger and at least equally if not better equipped …

Granted the US fucked around for the next 20 years and didn’t accomplish much..

But that doesn’t change the fact that the entire country was overrun and Baghdad fell on the 13th day with the 3rd I.D. and other major units occupying every block of the city.

I’m pretty sure Canada would fall faster. Montreal and Toronto, Vancouver, etc are all a whole lot closer to the US than Baghdad, Mosul, Erbil, and Kirkuk. It doesn’t take ships to move heavy mech to an invasion north. Just trains, roadways and airfields. All of which are plentiful in both the US and Canada.

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your not accounting for the damage to u.s. relations it would cause. The united states would become a pariah and china would step into the power vacuum. Taiwan falls Ukraine falls Russia goes back to selling oil to Europe meanwhile the u.s. is forced to fight guerilla forces that I think your underestimating.

Boyd Brooks said:

I strongly believe that those remaining few with firearms in Canada would throw on a Stars and Stripes patch and help out our American friends!
Just let us know when you’re coming, so we can suit up accordingly.
Oh, and thanks for giving us credit for a week to hold you guys off, but I think you give us 6 days and 23 hours to much credit.

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Not all of us would turncoat

The US is pulling all B1’s out of the UK and moving them back to the US due to another reported Iranian plot threat.

Suboptimal development.

Tubby’s Canteen said:

your not accounting for the damage to u.s. relations it would cause. The united states would become a pariah and china would step into the power vacuum. Taiwan falls Ukraine falls Russia goes back to selling oil to Europe meanwhile the u.s. is forced to fight guerilla forces that I think your underestimating.

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I don’t disagree at all… which is why a diplomatic solution to problems is best for everyone.

Carney saber rattling is just stupid… it’s tantamount to a Texas High School championship team saying it’s preparing to play against the New York Giants…

The HS principal should be trying to figure out how to convince the Giants to look at his school as a partner and potential feeder program to the pros… rather than acting like his players won’t all end up with broken backs 15 minutes into the game..

Both countries are far better off figuring out how to be partners… or at least avoid being enemies… both have something to lose..

But if Canada really thinks it has even a tiny prayer of a chance of defending itself militarily against the US… she has put herself on a fools errand… Carney is just wasting tax dollars in an effort to make himself look good politically

mdwest said:

Carney saber rattling is just stupid… it’s tantamount to a Texas High School saying it’s preparing to play against the New York Giants…

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To be fair, I'd give even money if that high school was playing the New York Jets.

SaintPanzer said:

To be fair, I'd give even money if that high school was playing the New York Jets.

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The jets have sucked since Namath retired… I think most of the CFL teams could kick the Jets ass in their sleep

Or the Miami Dolphins

I don’t think as things stand today. I would be willing to take up arms against Canada.

What a crazy world that the preceding sentence even has context.

Boyd Brooks said:

I strongly believe that those remaining few with firearms in Canada would throw on a Stars and Stripes patch and help out our American friends!
Just let us know when you’re coming, so we can suit up accordingly.
Oh, and thanks for giving us credit for a week to hold you guys off, but I think you give us 6 days and 23 hours to much credit.

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Nope, can’t say I would remotely entertain the idea.

mdwest said:

I don’t disagree at all… which is why a diplomatic solution to problems is best for everyone.

Carney saber rattling is just stupid… it’s tantamount to a Texas High School championship team saying it’s preparing to play against the New York Giants…

The HS principal should be trying to figure out how to convince the Giants to look at his school as a partner and potential feeder program to the pros… rather than acting like his players won’t all end up with broken backs 15 minutes into the game..

Both countries are far better off figuring out how to be partners… or at least avoid being enemies… both have something to lose..

But if Canada really thinks it has even a tiny prayer of a chance of defending itself militarily against the US… she has put herself on a fools errand… Carney is just wasting tax dollars in an effort to make himself look good politically

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It isn’t it the responsibility of the military leaders to make plans for such events, even if they are futile? I highly doubt the outcome of their plan show any sort of success as a country, but that doesn’t mean scenarios shouldn’t be thought out.

Aaron N said:

It isn’t it the responsibility of the military leaders to make plans for such events, even if they are futile? I highly doubt the outcome of their plan show any sort of success as a country, but that doesn’t mean scenarios shouldn’t be thought out.

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Absolutely not..

Like any other risk, you prioritize, and then you figure out if the best solution is to mitigate, avoid, or accept the risk based on your position, the liklihood of the event occuring, and the resources you have available.

Canada at the moment has a tiny military budget, many of its primary warfighting tools are in horrible shape or completely inoperable, and its troops havent had reasonable levels of training in years..

So waste money in figuring out how to defend against a US invasion which we all know is low risk no matter how much bullshit politicians and the media want to feed you about it?

Or spend that money and time maybe getting some of those CF18's back in the air before the F35's get delivered? so that Canada could actually potentially defend itself against any advasary, as opposed to just having politicians spew bullshit talking about it?

Last numbers I heard was Canada still has 79 CF18 in its inventory as an example.. 32 of them are capable of flying right now..

Canada has 103 Leopard 2 tanks (across 5 different varients).. Only 72 are actually in Canada.. the rest have been sent forward to Ukraine.. Of those 72, its reported that a whopping 20 are actually fully functional and battle ready...

54% of Canadas naval vessels have been deemed non operational and restricted from duty at the moment..

So.. if Canada has nothing to fight with.. and its not bothering to spend money to train its people to fight with the few tools they actually have to fight with... what exactly is the purpose of planning for a fight with anyone? much less the US?

Basic priorities of effort tell you Canada has far bigger concerns and risks to consider related to national defense than trying to figure out how to stop the 75th Ranger Regiment from seizing all of its national airports and the 3rd and 4th Infantry Divisons from seizing its cities..

mdwest said:

Absolutely not..

Like any other risk, you prioritize, and then you figure out if the best solution is to mitigate, avoid, or accept the risk based on your position, the liklihood of the event occuring, and the resources you have available.

Canada at the moment has a tiny military budget, many of its primary warfighting tools are in horrible shape or completely inoperable, and its troops havent had reasonable levels of training in years..

So waste money in figuring out how to defend against a US invasion which we all know is low risk no matter how much bullshit politicians and the media want to feed you about it?

Or spend that money and time maybe getting some of those CF18's back in the air before the F35's get delivered? so that Canada could actually potentially defend itself against any advasary, as opposed to just having politicians spew bullshit talking about it?

Last numbers I heard was Canada still has 79 CF18 in its inventory as an example.. 32 of them are capable of flying right now..

Canada has 103 Leopard 2 tanks (across 5 different varients).. Only 72 are actually in Canada.. the rest have been sent forward to Ukraine.. Of those 72, its reported that a whopping 20 are actually fully functional and battle ready...

54% of Canadas naval vessels have been deemed non operational and restricted from duty at the moment..

So.. if Canada has nothing to fight with.. and its not bothering to spend money to train its people to fight with the few tools they actually have to fight with... what exactly is the purpose of planning for a fight with anyone? much less the US?

Basic priorities of effort tell you Canada has far bigger concerns and risks to consider related to national defense than trying to figure out how to stop the 75th Ranger Regiment from seizing all of its national airports and the 3rd and 4th Infantry Divisons from seizing its cities..

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I’m not saying out military isn’t in shambles, but would argue both of these can happen concurrently. It’s better to have some semblance of a plan and fail, then to be holding you dick in your hands because we never imagined things would get this bad.

Ideally there should have been a plan all along, updating the use of muskets to, checks notes, oh we are still using them. Looks like this plan from 1812 is still valid, send it!

tinktink12 said:

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Democrats have been extremely aggressive in pushing for and passing gun control wherever they take control of state government. Virginia is the most recent example following New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, California, and Hawaii, to name some where they succeeded. Hopefully the Supreme Court will put an end to the efforts to disarm citizens. I don’t trust any politician that doesn’t trust citizens to defend themselves.

Aaron N said:

I’m not saying out military isn’t in shambles, but would argue both of these can happen concurrently. It’s better to have some semblance of a plan and fail, then to be holding you dick in your hands because we never imagined things would get this bad.

Ideally there should have been a plan all along, updating the use of muskets to, checks notes, oh we are still using them. Looks like this plan from 1812 is still valid, send it!

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I hear you.. but.. again, its about priorities..

Canada only has so many resources.. there are only so many competent officers and NCO's.. so many training dollars.. so many tools to train with.. and there are only so many hours in a day...

Even the US, with its vast resources is very very careful about how it spends money and time related to wargames (for what its worth, my firm has been the primary contractor that oversees USAF title 10, theater level wargames for the last decade)..

So unless Carney really thinks the threat is high priority.. its a senseless waste of those resources that could have been better utilized elsewhere..

For example, the US will absolutely spend a lot of time and money this year developing inteligence on Chinese military capabilities, its advancements, its changing TTPs, where it is today vs where its going to be in 5 years, 10 years, etc.. and then it will actively plan and wargame out dozens of scenarios at varying locations and levels through its war colleges, its wargaming institutions, etc.. and document and shelve the outcomes, and work toward improving outcomes for the next wargame...

but it will spend little time at all concerning itself with an invasion of Spain... the liklihood of the US entering into an armed conflict with the Spanish is low.. and the money, time, and resources would be far better used elsewhere..

thats not to say the US doesnt have a war plan for just about any possible scenario you could imagine with every possible enemy, foreign or domestic..

but many of those war plans are OLD.. and dont get dusted off very regularly.. because there are far greater priorities... and again, the US has FAR greater resources avaiable than Canada..

you dont want to know how old the inteligence, maps, information, etc was when the US invaded Grenada for example...

vs when we hit Maduro recently at his house in Venezuela.. you'd be amazed just what the US knew and was able to plan for... and just how detailed everything was down to the gnats ass..

its all about priorites..

mdwest said:

I hear you.. but.. again, its about priorities..

Canada only has so many resources.. there are only so many competent officers and NCO's.. so many training dollars.. so many tools to train with.. and there are only so many hours in a day...

Even the US, with its vast resources is very very careful about how it spends money and time related to wargames (for what its worth, my firm has been the primary contractor that oversees USAF title 10, theater level wargames for the last decade)..

So unless Carney really thinks the threat is high priority.. its a senseless waste of those resources that could have been better utilized elsewhere..

For example, the US will absolutely spend a lot of time and money this year developing inteligence on Chinese military capabilities, its advancements, its changing TTPs, where it is today vs where its going to be in 5 years, 10 years, etc.. and then it will actively plan and wargame out dozens of scenarios at varying locations and levels through its war colleges, its wargaming institutions, etc.. and document and shelve the outcomes, and work toward improving outcomes for the next wargame...

but it will spend little time at all concerning itself with an invasion of Spain... the liklihood of the US entering into an armed conflict with the Spanish is low.. and the money, time, and resources would be far better used elsewhere..

thats not to say the US doesnt have a war plan for just about any possible scenario you could imagine with every possible enemy, foreign or domestic..

but many of those war plans are OLD.. and dont get dusted off very regularly.. because there are far greater priorities... and again, the US has FAR greater resources avaiable than Canada..

you dont want to know how old the inteligence, maps, information, etc was when the US invaded Grenada for example...

vs when we hit Maduro recently at his house in Venezuela.. you'd be amazed just what the US knew and was able to plan for... and just how detailed everything was down to the gnats ass..

its all about priorites..

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I fully agree with everything your saying and think that if we are war gaming a U.S. invasion that Carney is wasting valuable resources that could be used to rearm with.

That said you’re actually making Arron’s argument for him. If a country with limited resources should only war game the most likely of aggressors than the u.s. is the one Canada should war game and not in the sense that I believe that the u.s. is a threat to invade Canada rather that the u.s. is the only aggressor that could attack Canada without having to factor in the response of the u.s. military to a boots on the ground invasion of Canada.