Politics

[CoElkHunter]

From whence this notion that this was a "cheap" Iranian attempt?

These were not Hamas rockets fired in the general direction of wherever. The cheapest were that Shahad jet powered drones with which Iran is supplying Russia. According to IDF sources, the Iranians launched 185 of these. They are very long range/endurance and very accurate. They are also very different from a Hamas rocket. Fortunately, common air defense systems under professional command and control, can deal with them. They also launched 36 cruise missiles which are equivalent to our Tomahawk. I have no idea what the equivalent cost for one of these domestically developed weapons is to Iran, but a Tomahawk costs the US taxpayer approx $2 mil each. Lastly they also launched launched 110 surface to surface ballistic missiles. A large proportion of these were most likely Sjjill MRBM missiles with a range of 2000 Km. They are the newest missile in the inventory and the only MRBM in Iran's armory capable of reaching Israel. The Sejjil is a two-stage solid fuel ballistic missile with a launch weigh exceeding 40,000 lbs. It is both conventional and nuclear capable. It is a very sophisticated weapon similar to our Pershing. I have seen no cost estimates, but such a weapon would be very expensive.

In short this was an extraordinary effort, militarily and financially, on the part of the Iranian regime. That will make the utter failure of this attack all the more sobering to the leadership in Tehran.

Does Israel have any ballistic missiles in their arsenal? I only see them attacking targets with aircraft.

 

[Altitude sickness]

The Iran strike will not be to occupy land. It will be to bomb oil infrastructure and anything supporting the nuclear program. Administrative buildings power supply Etc. And hopefully water and electricity infrastructure . No boots on ground.

Except those intelligence operatives already there.

If I knew if the U.S. or Israel had the weapons capable to penetrate concrete deeply underground ( and I don’t) It would be highly classified.

 

[Ridge Runner]

The Iran strike will not be to occupy land. It will be to bomb oil infrastructure and anything supporting the nuclear program. Administrative buildings power supply Etc. And hopefully water and electricity infrastructure . No boots on ground.

Except those intelligence operatives already there.

If I knew if the U.S. or Israel had the weapons capable to penetrate concrete deeply underground ( and I don’t) It would be highly classified.

Sadly:.....

That you can thank our US MSM for publicizing. The US does have such weapons just do a Google search.

The oil infrastructure would most likely be off limits due to the experiences learned in Kuwait.

As for water, electricity, general public admin buildings, hospitals, historical buildings, would fall under the Rules of Engagement policies.

Communications, transportation, military, certain political and manufacturing facilities would be primary targets.

"No boots on the ground".....don't bet against it.

As I commented earlier Iran is a terrorist country and the only way to deal with these type countries is like Sherman's March total and complete "Scorched Earth".

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

It worked out for Operation El Dorado Canyon, except it was not carpet bombing. If Carter had taking care in business in the first place, we might not have had all terrorist problems to deal with or we still might have. But their leader was expecting the USA to "rain fire" down on Iran and it never happened, so they think can get away taking potshots at the great and little Satan without fear. I agree the middle east is a difficult place, but Iran does not have many if any friends that would come to their aid.

 

[Altitude sickness]

another great video for context and comparing past bad actors and how they were dealt with.

We could remind the Iranian leaders how well Libya leaders futures panned out

this guy funded and backed terrorists against the U.S. and was thought to be untouchable also.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[fourfive8]

From whence this notion that this was a "cheap" Iranian attempt?

These were not Hamas rockets fired in the general direction of wherever. The cheapest were that Shahad jet powered drones with which Iran is supplying Russia. According to IDF sources, the Iranians launched 185 of these. They are very long range/endurance and very accurate. They are also very different from a Hamas rocket. Fortunately, common air defense systems under professional command and control, can deal with them. They also launched 36 cruise missiles which are equivalent to our Tomahawk. I have no idea what the equivalent cost for one of these domestically developed weapons is to Iran, but a Tomahawk costs the US taxpayer approx $2 mil each. Lastly they also launched launched 110 surface to surface ballistic missiles. A large proportion of these were most likely Sjjill MRBM missiles with a range of 2000 Km. They are the newest missile in the inventory and the only MRBM in Iran's armory capable of reaching Israel. The Sejjil is a two-stage solid fuel ballistic missile with a launch weigh exceeding 40,000 lbs. It is both conventional and nuclear capable. It is a very sophisticated weapon similar to our Pershing. I have seen no cost estimates, but such a weapon would be very expensive.

In short this was an extraordinary effort, militarily and financially, on the part of the Iranian regime. That will make the utter failure of this attack all the more sobering to the leadership in Tehran.

Predictable response. Just like Brandon’s story of Corn Pop. Praise and build up the strength and might of your enemy AFTER soundly defeating them in a battlefield skirmish, no matter how asymmetrical it may have been.

 

[Tanks]

Predictable response. Just like Brandon’s story of Corn Pop. Praise and build up the strength and might of your enemy AFTER soundly defeating them in a battlefield skirmish, no matter how asymmetrical it may have been.

Curious. How is clarifying the cost and type of ordnance used is “praise and build up…”?

Should discussions about almost everything be “fact free” just like Trump discussions to bolster one’s viewpoints?

 

[Saul]

Predictable response. Just like Brandon’s story of Corn Pop. Praise and build up the strength and might of your enemy AFTER soundly defeating them in a battlefield skirmish, no matter how asymmetrical it may have been.

Please read the last paragraph of what you quoted.

“In short this was an extraordinary effort, militarily and financially, on the part of the Iranian regime. That will make the utter failure of this attack all the more sobering to the leadership in Tehran.”

 

[Foxi]

Please read the last paragraph of what you quoted.

“In short this was an extraordinary effort, militarily and financially, on the part of the Iranian regime. That will make the utter failure of this attack all the more sobering to the leadership in Tehran.”

Iran informed its neighbouring countries and Israel's ally, the United States, 72 hours in advance of the start of the attacks. Baghdad is also said to have been informed of the attack via diplomatic channels at least three days before the attack.
If I announce my strikes, it means that ultimately I don't want an escalation and you can prepare for it.I would not see this as a failure.
In oriental cultures, the concept of "honour" is of great importance. Saving face plays an important role in interpersonal relationships, negotiations and conflicts.

"We could remind the Iranian leaders how well Libya leaders futures panned out "

Persians are Indo-Europeans-not comparable to Arabs.
Far tougher nuts to crack
The chaos that was caused in Libya and Iraq at the time is enough for me.
Complete geopolitical failures.

 

[Red Leg]

Predictable response. Just like Brandon’s story of Corn Pop. Praise and build up the strength and might of your enemy AFTER soundly defeating them in a battlefield skirmish, no matter how asymmetrical it may have been.

Why don't you offer some alternative knowledge, factual analysis, or relevant experience to this discussion. I truly would love to hear it. The only reason the Iranian attack was not successful was due to the capabilities of the systems arrayed against it and the professionalism of the men and women manning them. If you do not believe that is true, rather than comparing me to "Brandon," something you no doubt feel is very clever, offer an argument, supported by facts and analysis that contradicts my assessment of the Iranian attack. I am sure we would all benefit from it.

 

[PARA45]

Californians are buying up guns after Border Patrol starts dumping thousands of migrants on streets​

MSN

 

[NE 7x57]

Does Israel have any ballistic missiles in their arsenal? I only see them attacking targets with aircraft.

Israel reportedly has a missile called the Jericho III which is designed to deliver a payload up to 3000-4000 miles. If they do have such a weapon they might be reluctant to let the world see it as it could be used as a nuclear delivery system.

 

[mdwest]

Israel reportedly has a missile called the Jericho III which is designed to deliver a payload up to 3000-4000 miles. If they do have such a weapon they might be reluctant to let the world see it as it could be used as a nuclear delivery system.

Israel does indeed have Jericho I, II, and III ballistic missiles..

They have sold Jericho II technology to other countries (such as South Africa).. the capabilities of all three of these weapon systems are well known..

How many Jericho III are available, where they are all located, and how are they defended are questions that Im not sure everyone knows the answer to (although I'd guess some of the better intelligence agencies have been able to figure that out.. Israel isnt a huge place)..

It should also be noted that while small, the Israeli navy does have 5 subs that all have cruise missile launch capability.. As far back as 2002 the USN observed the Israeli navy hitting targets 930 miles away (in training).. it is believed that Israel has likely improved the SLCM capability and could now hit Tehran from the Persian Gulf with these missiles.. their Popeye Submarine launched variant cruise missile (called Popeye Turbo) is indeed nuclear capable (or can be armed with high explosives if desired)..

This is no half hearted weapon system.. it is a very capable and very reliable cruise missile that has been purchased by Australia, India, South Korea, Turkey, and the US (although we retired them 20 years ago)..

 

[Hunt anything]

Back to Ukraine, on a couple of our local radio shows it has been stated that Russia has rebuilt its military back to pre invasion levels. Has anyone else heard anything about this? Seems like that would be very difficult with the losses they have sustained.

 

[rookhawk]

Back to Ukraine, on a couple of our local radio shows it has been stated that Russia has rebuilt its military back to pre invasion levels. Has anyone else heard anything about this? Seems like that would be very difficult with the losses they have sustained.

Months ago Peter Zeihan stated that there were 500,000 Russian casualties at that point. If that was true, and what you're asking is also true, Russia truly is extinct.

The war wages on, you end up with another 200k-300k casualties, there is an entire generation of breeders / producers missing from their population pyramid.

From the start (buried 100+ pages ago on this thread) I believed they were just going to let the conflict go on and on and on. It's in the interest of the west to have Russian cannibalize itself both by population, future production, and current resource consumption. That doesn't just win the battle of Ukraine, it wins the war with the Russian Federation forever.

Some other sources that may be less than the 500,000 number. A report in December of 23 used the casualty number as 315,000 out of a total 360,000 active service at the beginning of the conflict.

The only problem I see with this war of attrition backfiring is its happening on the Ukrainian side as well. There are limitless anecdotes of the Ukrainian women moving abroad and getting married/pregnant in other cultures. That is removing future breeding stock and future Ukrainian citizens from the future peace-time country. Ukraine will have to have massive peacetime immigration from its neighbors to be able to be a raw producer at scale in the future.

 

[Red Leg]

Back to Ukraine, on a couple of our local radio shows it has been stated that Russia has rebuilt its military back to pre invasion levels. Has anyone else heard anything about this? Seems like that would be very difficult with the losses they have sustained.

Most serious analysts agree Russia has lost somewhere between 400 and 600k total casualties in this war. Lots of these were commissioned officers, including a number of generals. The VDV and Naval Infantry which contained Russia's best trained forces were essentially wiped out in the first year of the war. Putting a body against a slot, which Russia has been trying to do over the last 18 months or so accomplishes very little. It takes the US Army six-years to create a company commander and 14 to create a battalion commander. A company first sergeant will take as long as a battalion commander. Russia can not simply recruit that kind of professional soldier. From a personnel perspective, Russia will be a generation recreating an army with the experience and training of the one destroyed in Ukraine.

Equipment is a second factor. A bunch of poorly trained new recruits and draftees manning fifty-year-old T-62/64 tanks is very different than the force that entered Ukraine using modernized T-72's, T-80's and T-90's. Most analysts credited Russia with a force of 2800 - 3200 modernized tanks at the time of the invasion. According to Oryx, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1 which only counts vehicles for which there is video or photographic evidence, Russia has lost 2,931 tanks as of today. The vast majority of those were first line modern or modernized production. Russia seems to have about exhausted its T-72 storage base. It's industry is capable of producing around 250 new MBT's a year. Do the math.

 

[rookhawk]

Most serious analysts agree Russia has lost somewhere between 400 and 600k total casualties in this war. Lots of these were commissioned officers, including a number of generals. The VDV and Naval Infantry which contained Russia's best trained forces were essentially wiped out in the first year of the war. Putting a body against a slot, which Russia has been trying to do over the last 18 months or so accomplishes very little. It takes the US Army six-years to create a company commander and 14 to create a battalion commander. A company first sergeant will take as long as a battalion commander. Russia can not simply recruit that kind of professional soldier. From a personnel perspective, Russia will be a generation recreating an army with the experience and training of the one destroyed in Ukraine.

Equipment is a second factor. A bunch of poorly trained new recruits and draftees manning fifty-year-old T-62/64 tanks is very different than the force that entered Ukraine using modernized T-72's, T-80's and T-90's. Most analysts credited Russia with a force of 2800 - 3200 modernized tanks at the time of the invasion. According to Oryx, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1 which only counts vehicles for which there is video or photographic evidence, Russia has lost 2,931 tanks as of today. The vast majority of those were first line modern or modernized production. Russia seems to have about exhausted its T-72 storage base. It's industry is capable of producing around 250 new MBT's a year. Do the math.

When you describe it from a solider's perspective and their backlogged production of new equipment and new leaders, it sure does sound like Russia is vulnerable to Chinese expansion in the next decade?

In the interim, it sounds like they are very vulnerable to succession risks from Chechens, Georgians, and other Soviet Satellite proxies with different ideals too.

 

[Doubleplay]

Meanwhile:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/15/trump-media-shares-plunge-after-company-files-to-issue-additional-djt-stock.html

I feel sorry for the ones who bought it and get conned.
It's on its way to be a penny stock.

 

[mdwest]

In the interim, it sounds like they are very vulnerable to succession risks from Chechens, Georgians, and other Soviet Satellite proxies with different ideals too.

This is what Ive been wondering about...

If Russia is indeed weakened to the point most western sources would tell us it is.. I have to believe groups inside Chechnya are considering either making another run at independence again, or are having discussions with Georgia about becoming a Georgian province/state...

It wouldnt surprise me if Dagestan didnt make some sort of move as well (although less likely than Chechnya I would think).. there is a heavy islamic influence in dagestan (much like chechnya)... Ive also got to believe there are a lot of upset mommas and poppas in dagestan as a significant number of dagestan troops were used in the initial invasion of Ukraine and were largely wiped out..