Politics

I read on RedState, that Biden admin essentially Green Lit the Iranian attack.

The Jerusalem Post is reporting: Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that the US conveyed to Iran via Ankara that its operation must be "within certain limits."

I'm not 100% surprised by this, I keep hearing the word "proportionate". I'm not sure where we go from here, but my guess is Israel might not tell the Whitehouse what its next move is.
 
As Winston Churchill said, “without victory, there is no survival.”

However, I see no reason why victory has to mean immediate decimation of Iran at this very moment. Israel knows well that patience is a virtue.

Still, there must, and will, be consequences. I trust Israel and our military to determine how best to keep the people of Israel safe, both now and in the future, from Iran.
The Iranian barrage is potentially a huge gift to Israel, they should use it wisely. In that one fateful action the direction has pivoted:
1. Iran is unmasked as the agressor and there is a chance to consolidate sensible world opinion in Israel's favour. Of course Iran always was the agressor, but the Gaza war was swaying the wobbly believers. It is essential to keep drumming away, as Israel is doing quite well, on how horrific October 7th was, how terrible the keeping of the hostages is. Link the killed Iranian general to it all. World opinion counts.
2. The US, UK, France, Lebanon and Egypt participated. The message is very powerful, it wasn't all Western.
3. The barrage, which was large and serious, was very effectively repelled. Right now Israel looks like a giant. As Tanks said, it would be unwise to do anything at all; a 99% record is hard to beat, don't risk it.
 
One other thought. If I am correct with respect to Israel's range challenge in striking back at Iran, it may be in their interests not to do so. They have effectively demonstrated that they are immune to Iran's bluster while their strike capability remains an unknown to Iran. The Israeli government and the IDF may well determine it is in their interests to keep it that way. Netanyahu can even call off the expected retaliation by blaming it on US pressure.

It has been said in the past that Israel won't let Iran attain a nuclear ability along with a delivery system to reach Israel. This seems to be the excuse they need and take those targets out. The problem is distance and those locations would be heavily defended.

Iran's oil export infrastructure seems closer with less defenses to negotiate.

Decapitating the leadership may not be easy. Iran is so different from a Russia, China, North Korea as leadership is easily filled with new Mullah's.

I am curious your thoughts on these targets, or would Israel look for targets that would not lead to a massive escalation.
 
From whence this notion that this was a "cheap" Iranian attempt?

These were not Hamas rockets fired in the general direction of wherever. The cheapest were that Shahad jet powered drones with which Iran is supplying Russia. According to IDF sources, the Iranians launched 185 of these. They are very long range/endurance and very accurate. They are also very different from a Hamas rocket. Fortunately, common air defense systems under professional command and control, can deal with them. They also launched 36 cruise missiles which are equivalent to our Tomahawk. I have no idea what the equivalent cost for one of these domestically developed weapons is to Iran, but a Tomahawk costs the US taxpayer approx $2 mil each. Lastly they also launched launched 110 surface to surface ballistic missiles. A large proportion of these were most likely Sjjill MRBM missiles with a range of 2000 Km. They are the newest missile in the inventory and the only MRBM in Iran's armory capable of reaching Israel. The Sejjil is a two-stage solid fuel ballistic missile with a launch weigh exceeding 40,000 lbs. It is both conventional and nuclear capable. It is a very sophisticated weapon similar to our Pershing. I have seen no cost estimates, but such a weapon would be very expensive.

In short this was an extraordinary effort, militarily and financially, on the part of the Iranian regime. That will make the utter failure of this attack all the more sobering to the leadership in Tehran.
Joe;
Thank you for all these types of reports. Even when you are not positive of the information it is certainly much better than those of us with zero knowledge or experience on such matters can possibly muster. And it seems to be more accurate, or you somehow seem to get it corrected much faster than the news stations.

Thanks again for these continuing informative posts. I for one really appreciate and enjoy the information.
Bob
 
It has been said in the past that Israel won't let Iran attain a nuclear ability along with a delivery system to reach Israel. This seems to be the excuse they need and take those targets out. The problem is distance and those locations would be heavily defended.

Iran's oil export infrastructure seems closer with less defenses to negotiate.

Decapitating the leadership may not be easy. Iran is so different from a Russia, China, North Korea as leadership is easily filled with new Mullah's.

I am curious your thoughts on these targets, or would Israel look for targets that would not lead to a massive escalation.
Great question and I have my doubts with respect to Iran's nuclear program. I obviously am somewhat dated, but the math and kinetic challenge hasn't changed. Unlike Iraq and Syria which essentially had single point of attack nuclear plants for enrichment, Iran has spread its program over a number of facilities. Secondly, the Iraqi and Syrian plants, though well defended, were susceptible to catastrophic damage if struck.

Open source material notes that the two major Iranian sites are buried. Site Fordo, which is often pointed at as the primary enrichment location, is inside a mountain under at least 80 meters of solid rock. That is a Cheyenne Mountain sort of construction. The site is also over a thousand miles from Israel. Any ordinance capable of having any hope of penetrating that deeply would have to be very heavy.

The largest open source US developed bomb is the GPU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) built by Northrop Grumman. Its capabilities are largely classified, but it weighs 40,000 lbs and requires a B2 to launch it at a target. The Israelis have no means to deliver such a weapon if they had it.

The MOP was developed because of the lack of effectiveness against many Iraqi targets by the 5,000 penetrator that was created following the first Gulf War. In that conflict, improvised penetrators were employed.

So, with respect to the nuclear targets, the Israeli Air Force would struggle to reach them with their current aircraft, and if they were successful, it would be a huge challenge to inflict any meaningful damage with their current ordnance. I should also note that while the Iranian Air Force is distinctly third world, it has a sophisticated air defense network with a version of the Russian S300 as its centerpiece.

An intermediate staging base would solve some of the range and fuel problems, but which Arab country would offer that scale of support to an Israeli strike package - particularly if a sustained attack were required. No one in the region likes the Iranians, but almost all deal with large Shia populations that are capable of causing enormous domestic instability.

One would assume SOF is also an option. But trying to infiltrate a large enough force to take out a huge underground facility would seem daunting. As we saw at Entebbe, Israel is willing to take such risks with its special operators, but this would be into the teeth of a well defended target facility, not a civilian airport.

The oil industry, on the other hand, is a much softer target, but range is again the hurdle. For instance, the distance from Israel to Bandar Abas is nearly 1400 miles meaning a strike mission of 2800 miles. Some airman should check my math, but the base F-16 has a combat radius of around 750 miles. That can be extended with external and conformal fuel tanks. The math remains inexorable however. For every pound of fuel, a pound of ordnance has to be removed. It is why mid-air refueling is so critical to US operations.
 
Last edited:
They trained for this a year ago.

IMG_3966.jpeg
IMG_3965.jpeg
Iranian underground Drone storage
 
They trained for this a year ago.

View attachment 599415View attachment 599416Iranian underground Drone storage
Looks like you may be correct. I was under the apparently mistaken impression that the 707's were no longer operational and that the IDF was awaiting the arrival of the newly ordered (2023) Boeing Pegasus which is essentially a militarized 767/787 hybrid. If the 707's are operational, then that would greatly extend the range and payload of IDF strike aircraft. It would be interesting to know if they have a solution to the penetration challenge.
 
Great question and I have my doubts with respect to Iran's nuclear program. I obviously am somewhat dated, but the math and kinetic challenge hasn't changed. Unlike Iraq and Syria which essentially had single point of attack nuclear plants for enrichment, Iran has spread its program over a number of facilities. Secondly, the Iraqi and Syrian plants, though well defended, were susceptible to catastrophic damage if struck.

Open source material notes that the two major Iranian sites are buried. Site Fordo, which is often pointed at as the primary enrichment location, is inside a mountain under at least 80 meters of solid rock. That is a Cheyenne Mountain sort of construction. The site is also over a thousand miles from Israel. Any ordinance capable of having any hope of penetrating that deeply would have to be very heavy.

The largest open source US developed bomb is the GPU 57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) built by Northrop Grumman. Its capabilities are largely classified, but it weighs 40,000 lbs and requires a B2 to launch it at a target. The Israelis have no means to deliver such a weapon if they had it.

The MOP was developed because of the lack of effectiveness against many Iraqi targets by the 5,000 penetrator that was created following the first Gulf War. In that conflict, improvised penetrators were employed.

So, with respect to the nuclear targets, the Israeli Air Force would struggle to reach them with their current aircraft, and if they were successful, it would be a huge challenge to inflict any meaningful damage with their current ordnance. I should also note that while the Iranian Air Force is distinctly third world, it has a sophisticated air defense network with a version of the Russian S300 as its centerpiece.

An intermediate staging base would solve some of the range and fuel problems, but which Arab country would offer that scale of support to an Israeli strike package - particularly if a sustained attack were required. No one in the region likes the Iranians, but almost all deal with large Shia populations that are capable of causing enormous domestic instability.

One would assume SOF is also an option. But trying to infiltrate a large enough force to take out a huge underground facility would seem daunting. As we saw at Entebbe, Israel is willing to take such risks with its special operators, but this would be into the teeth of a well defended target facility, not a civilian airport.

The oil industry, on the other hand, is a much softer target, but range is again the hurdle. For instance, the distance from Israel to Bandar Abas is nearly 1400 miles meaning a strike mission of 2800 miles. Some airman should check my math, but the base F-16 has a combat radius of around 750 miles. That can be extended with external and conformal fuel tanks. The math remains inexorable however. For every pound of fuel, a pound of ordnance has to be removed. It is why mid-air refueling is so critical to US operations.

Appreciate your knowledge and analysis. Thanks.
 
Appreciate your knowledge and analysis. Thanks.
@Altitude sickness 's catch on the operational 707's changes the calculus meaningfully, assuming at least two of them are fully operational. While we have stated that we would not "participate" in any Israeli retaliation against Iran, I assume we would provide a secure orbit for tanker refueling over Iraq. The Saudis might be willing to do the same to support attacks against the oil infrastructure. That would allow a full ordnance load to be carried by IDF F-16s and F-15s. The question then, particularly with respect to the nuclear program, what is the target set.
 
If you can't get past that he's a rapist, Bill Cosby's "Bill Cosby Himself" stands up very well. ..."When your father gets home, he's going to shoot you in the face with a bazooka!"
 
A lot of key board warriors here advocating carpet bombing Iran have no clue what the consequences will be for the World and the region.
At the same time most of them questioning why we help Ukraine against Russia.
What a freaking irony,
 
Match your Justin and raise you a Biden can take a country down hill faster.
Not even close, Biden can do the whole World as fast as Justin can do Canada....
 
Last edited:
A lot of key board warriors here advocating carpet bombing Iran have no clue what the consequences will be for the World and the region.
At the same time most of them questioning why we help Ukraine against Russia.
What a freaking irony,

It worked out for Operation El Dorado Canyon, except it was not carpet bombing. If Carter had taking care in business in the first place, we might not have had all terrorist problems to deal with or we still might have. But their leader was expecting the USA to "rain fire" down on Iran and it never happened, so they think can get away taking potshots at the great and little Satan without fear. I agree the middle east is a difficult place, but Iran does not have many if any friends that would come to their aid.
 
Hmm isn't that a happy comparision?
Well, no it's a very sad state of affairs but we do need to laugh about it now and then....

Isn't it interesting how all this World strife happens during the tenure of Liberals in the leadership roles.

Russia invaded Ukraine during Obama and Biden administrations.

But Trump is the bad guy.
 
One would assume SOF is also an option. But trying to infiltrate a large enough force to take out a huge underground facility would seem daunting. As we saw at Entebbe, Israel is willing to take such risks with its special operators, but this would be into the teeth of a well defended target facility, not a civilian airport.
The question then, particularly with respect to the nuclear program, what is the target set.


At one point specially trained elements from the MEK were considered for this role (in theory and allegedly of course). Pretty sure that idea is in the dustpin, at least as far as the US is concerned anyway.

Hersh wrote about it years ago, and NIAC was all up in arms about it as well.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/our-men-in-iran
 

Forum statistics

Threads
55,193
Messages
1,172,404
Members
95,930
Latest member
AlexisFarr
 

 

 

Latest profile posts

JG26Irish_2 wrote on WISafariHunter's profile.
About Lon's Elephant hunts w/Tokoloshe? I hear Lon is battling cancer? What is his long term prognosis? I am already booked to hunt Africa in 2024 2025. Might consider 2026 for another African hunt. I want to hunt a more wild open region devoid of civilization. Concern is the risk that I book f/2026 then find poor Lon has passed on? Does Lon have any assistance to carry on the business in his absence?
Life is Short live it how you want...
jgraco33 wrote on 85lc's profile.
Is your 22HP still available? If so have the original case?
tacklers wrote on ianevans's profile.
Hi Ian, I'm contemplating my first outing, leaving UK via Dubai to Africa, taking rifles as you did.

I presume it went okay for you, would you have done anything differently? Cheers, Richard East Sussex
A.A. wrote on Msprenger!'s profile.
Are you still looking for a 375 H&H?
 
Top