SpaceX IPO ?

[Hornedfrogbbq]

I do have one additional thing to add to this...which probably isn't helpful but is in our thinking -- Musk just signed two contracts to sell part of his compute power down here on Earth for $25B a year in total. That is a payback period of 18 months on his facility by our rough calculations. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is throwing money at AI...to the tune of trillions of dollars.

I have a guy that is building the modern-day railroad to space. He has an utter complete monopoly for all intents and purposes. He hasn't gotten the Starship V3 figured out yet but he is a dozen plus test flights in and i think the guy figures it out. He has all the other rockets they have designed.

He did a launch every other DAY in 2025. Think about that. Bezos is still blowing stuff up on the pad (did you see the last one...goodness) but he's following the same path SpaceX did...just is years behind.
Musk's newest version satellites are massively bigger and more capable than the current versions he has been putting up there. He knows communications, how to beam down to earth, meshing the satellites together, etc.

What if the data centers in space really are a thing..and why wouldn't they be. He already knows how to build a resilient system that handles the environment of space with all of his satellites. He knows how to handle the radiation, the micro-meteors, the solar arrays, the electronics. So you go start blasting up some type of container full of Nvidia computers, you already know how to build the thing and you already know how to power the thing and the cooling problems are basically zero. You already have over 10,000 satellites in Starlink alone and the larger, newer satellites will be massively more productive and powerful.

What happens to the TRILLIONS of dollars of announced data centers on Earth? I mean even if this is several years out, it could be hugely impactful to those plans. Fully 70% of the data centers that are supposed to be operating in 2027 haven't BROKEN GROUND yet and 7% have but are delayed. The permitting, the power needs, the cooling needs, hell just getting transformers and behind-the-meter gas plants can take 24-36 months.

What would that compute power be worth to Amazon? Microsoft? Google? Anthropic? He just signed Anthropic and Google up to $25 billion annually for compute power on earth. If he becomes the low-cost provider by being in space, it could change (and incinerate) a massive amount of capex planned or spent on Earth.

The minute he puts one of these containers/data centers up in space, you can expect financing for a ton of these projects on earth to dry up and folks scrambling for the exits. The tree-huggers will go nuts...less power, less pollution, less green space needed, less noise, less traffic. I don't know about you all but down here in Fort Worth, it has become NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) because you are talking about massive warehouses that are loud as hell. No one wants that close to them.

Just a thought. I think if that path happens (and i don't know how to probability weight that), the stock is going WAY up. Without it, it's probably over-valued.

Now if he'll just quit trying to make Grok compete against the Googles and Microsofts of the world. I think he's in 4th place there...if he's lucky.

 

[rookhawk]

I've enjoyed the thread. I bought a bit of SpaceX on the IPO. I didn't really follow the fundamentals when I bought, I trusted my eyes.

The things that have caught my attention:

1.) I live in a rural area and every damned day its another WW3 battle against data centers. People have been brainwashed against them ensuring we lose the tech race against our enemies. The data that got me interested in SpaceX is this. At present, it is too expensive to build data centers in space, but its not far away. It is only 3x the cost TODAY to build a DC in space versus on the ground. Yep, the cost of rockets, radiation shielding, a required 5-year lifespan before self-destruct, and the cost of solar panels and nonetheless its only 3x the costs at present. Major costs of DCs on earth are political and bureaucratic.

2.) Market hegemony. Musk owns 65% of ALL satellites presently in earth's orbit. That's a dumbfounding number and he's just getting started.

3.) Logistics. Musk can get 1 kilogram into space for $1400 and NASA needs $40,000-$700,000. Reuse and efficiency is only going to make SpaceX cheaper. In ten years moving a KG into space will cost about the same price as we pay for a Fedex, overnight, before 10am Kilogram package going across the USA.

Beyond all the forward looking realities that are far bigger than Tesla's aims, SpaceX does already have revenue from Starlink and occasionally acting as an Uber to pick up stranded astronauts too.

Purchased at IPO at $160. It closed yesterday at $192.50. Pre-market this morning is over $200.

Had you invested $10,000 in Tesla at the IPO, you'd have $750,000 today. I think SpaceX will end up having a similar journey over the next 15 years.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

I've enjoyed the thread. I bought a bit of SpaceX on the IPO. I didn't really follow the fundamentals when I bought, I trusted my eyes.

The things that have caught my attention:

1.) I live in a rural area and every damned day its another WW3 battle against data centers. People have been brainwashed against them ensuring we lose the tech race against our enemies. The data that got me interested in SpaceX is this. At present, it is too expensive to build data centers in space, but its not far away. It is only 3x the cost TODAY to build a DC in space versus on the ground. Yep, the cost of rockets, radiation shielding, a required 5-year lifespan before self-destruct, and the cost of solar panels and nonetheless its only 3x the costs at present. Major costs of DCs on earth are political and bureaucratic.

2.) Market hegemony. Musk owns 65% of ALL satellites presently in earth's orbit. That's a dumbfounding number and he's just getting started.

3.) Logistics. Musk can get 1 kilogram into space for $1400 and NASA needs $40,000-$700,000. Reuse and efficiency is only going to make SpaceX cheaper. In ten years moving a KG into space will cost about the same price as we pay for a Fedex, overnight, before 10am Kilogram package going across the USA.

Beyond all the forward looking realities that are far bigger than Tesla's aims, SpaceX does already have revenue from Starlink and occasionally acting as an Uber to pick up stranded astronauts too.

Purchased at IPO at $160. It closed yesterday at $192.50. Pre-market this morning is over $200.

Had you invested $10,000 in Tesla at the IPO, you'd have $750,000 today. I think SpaceX will end up having a similar journey over the next 15 years.

I obviously agree with the "long" story. Just to clarify -- the stock came out at $135. The first trade was $150. If you had been allocated ipo shares at $135 with a total of $10,000 exposure, and it trades at $200/share you would be up about 50%...so $15,000. Pretty snappy for it trading 3 days.

 

[rookhawk]

I obviously agree with the "long" story. Just to clarify -- the stock came out at $135. The first trade was $150. If you had been allocated ipo shares at $135 with a total of $10,000 exposure, and it trades at $200/share you would be up about 50%...so $15,000. Pretty snappy for it trading 3 days.

You're correct. I bought on IPO day, but on the secondary market as I wasn't allocated.

The last time I bought pre-allocated IPO was Rivian and boy was that the worst trade of the last 15 years.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

You're correct. I bought on IPO day, but on the secondary market as I wasn't allocated.

The last time I bought pre-allocated IPO was Rivian and boy was that the worst trade of the last 15 years.

Pre-ipo is basically venture capital (that is how we characterize it). It is risky as hell. We'll be up over 30x on our first buy of SPCX but that was 8 years ago and we have written off 15 other VC investments to zero in that timeframe. But that is typical VC -- 80% of the book is a total loss, 15% is worth something and a couple of homeruns have to pull the portfolio or the whole allocation has been a bad idea versus other opportunities.

Even after this outcome, we are still unsure this has been a good idea. I am unsure it is repeatable and scalable.

 

[wesheltonj]

I do have one additional thing to add to this...which probably isn't helpful but is in our thinking -- Musk just signed two contracts to sell part of his compute power down here on Earth for $25B a year in total. That is a payback period of 18 months on his facility by our rough calculations. Everyone, and I mean everyone, is throwing money at AI...to the tune of trillions of dollars.

I have a guy that is building the modern-day railroad to space. He has an utter complete monopoly for all intents and purposes. He hasn't gotten the Starship V3 figured out yet but he is a dozen plus test flights in and i think the guy figures it out. He has all the other rockets they have designed.

He did a launch every other DAY in 2025. Think about that. Bezos is still blowing stuff up on the pad (did you see the last one...goodness) but he's following the same path SpaceX did...just is years behind.
Musk's newest version satellites are massively bigger and more capable than the current versions he has been putting up there. He knows communications, how to beam down to earth, meshing the satellites together, etc.

What if the data centers in space really are a thing..and why wouldn't they be. He already knows how to build a resilient system that handles the environment of space with all of his satellites. He knows how to handle the radiation, the micro-meteors, the solar arrays, the electronics. So you go start blasting up some type of container full of Nvidia computers, you already know how to build the thing and you already know how to power the thing and the cooling problems are basically zero. You already have over 10,000 satellites in Starlink alone and the larger, newer satellites will be massively more productive and powerful.

What happens to the TRILLIONS of dollars of announced data centers on Earth? I mean even if this is several years out, it could be hugely impactful to those plans. Fully 70% of the data centers that are supposed to be operating in 2027 haven't BROKEN GROUND yet and 7% have but are delayed. The permitting, the power needs, the cooling needs, hell just getting transformers and behind-the-meter gas plants can take 24-36 months.

What would that compute power be worth to Amazon? Microsoft? Google? Anthropic? He just signed Anthropic and Google up to $25 billion annually for compute power on earth. If he becomes the low-cost provider by being in space, it could change (and incinerate) a massive amount of capex planned or spent on Earth.

The minute he puts one of these containers/data centers up in space, you can expect financing for a ton of these projects on earth to dry up and folks scrambling for the exits. The tree-huggers will go nuts...less power, less pollution, less green space needed, less noise, less traffic. I don't know about you all but down here in Fort Worth, it has become NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) because you are talking about massive warehouses that are loud as hell. No one wants that close to them.

Just a thought. I think if that path happens (and i don't know how to probability weight that), the stock is going WAY up. Without it, it's probably over-valued.

Now if he'll just quit trying to make Grok compete against the Googles and Microsofts of the world. I think he's in 4th place there...if he's lucky.

Starlink are low orbit, designed to fall out of orbit back to earth. Requires constant replacements. A data center might be a challenge to have at ow orbit. Something that size falling back to earth might be more than a little damaging. Maybe on the moon might be something.

 

[rookhawk]

Starlink are low orbit, designed to fall out of orbit back to earth. Requires constant replacements. A data center might be a challenge to have at ow orbit. Something that size falling back to earth might be more than a little damaging. Maybe on the moon might be something.

I'm unfamiliar with how "space law" works but I'm told that Space-based data centers cannot operate beyond a 5-year lifespan. I assume they would be sent a reentry course to vaporize them after their useful life but that is purely speculation.

At whatever location they intend to place datacenters, Im told that the solar power arrays are 8x as efficient as they are terrestrially. And of course overclocking the cpus and having no cooling is pretty easy when you're operating at -270C.

Point being, if Musk says they aren't presently viable as they cost 3x the price today, that sounds like 10-12 years from now it will be far less of a bureaucratic nightmare to put servers in space.

 

[Hornedfrogbbq]

Lots of hurdles. I think they put the DC in GEO using Impulse Space and then he has said they'll use the laser mesh network with the satellites and they already have that.