Politics

[Brent in Az]

Iran is just yanking everyone's chain to stall as much as possible.
The U.S just needs to take over Kharg island and be done with it.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Bye bye peace plan..

Frankly, if it gives Iran what it wants it was probably a shitty plan anyway.

 

[skydiver386]

Bye bye peace plan..

Good riddance.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I think the Europeans seriously underestimate or misunderstand just how tired of this garbage America and Americans are. This is long overdue. We don’t really care what you think or feel about what’s going on

 

[Rocked and Loaded]

I just wish that he would just take the US out of Nato instead of keep talking about it. Talking about it all the time just makes any advesaries doubt Nato so it would actually be better if he made the US leave instead...of course it would be even better if he did just shut up about it, but that does not seem likely

Serious question but do you really think that, considering how much the US contributes to NATO in both funding and manpower, that NATO would have significant value for the remaining members? Or retain its strategic value as a counter to Russia? Is that funding and manpower gap one that the current top members can fill?

 

[DieJager]

Is the ceasefire the silence before the storm?

https://substack.com/@charliepgarcia/note/c-239909606

 

[Pondoro]

Attack what..attack where..?!

 

[Hunt anything]

Iran is just yanking everyone's chain to stall as much as possible.
The U.S just needs to take over Kharg island and be done with it.

Yep, plus I think that during the ceasefire, for every missile or drone that Iran fires at Israel, a ship or another Gulf country they should lose a bridge!

 

[Brent in Az]

Looks like they found a leaker.....

Former Fort Bragg employee accused of leaking classified military tactics | Fox News https://share.google/kgGRNOMbi9q8hQPNn

 

[Foxi]

. We don’t really care what you think or feel about what’s going on

That's exactly why you're alone.Oh, wait—you still have Netanyahu.
Great, what a friend in need .

 

[mdwest]

Is the ceasefire the silence before the storm?

https://substack.com/@charliepgarcia/note/c-239909606

I dont know if what Garcia lays out is an accurate depiction of what is going to happen...

but I do know that any "pause" in fighting isnt a period of time where either side just sits on their thumbs and waits to see if perminant peace is going to be acheieved or if theyre going to start slugging it out again..

Every second that bombs arent being dropped on Iran is a second that is being used to bring more bombs into theater, position ships better, do maintenance on aircraft, give the crews down time and sleep so that they will be more effective when they next man their aircraft... Intel assets are focuing on finding new targets.. etc etc...

I can assure you that the US and Israel are spending their time very wisely and planning and preparing for the next opportunity strike..

 

[mdwest]

That's exactly why you're alone.Oh, wait—you still have Netanyahu.
Great, what a friend in need .

considering right now we're dealing with an air war... and Germany sent exactly zero fighter or bomber aircraft to Iraq or Afghanistan..

other than sending warships for escort duty to help with oil flow, which you need FAR more than the US or Israel does..

what exactly do you think Germany has the ability to do that would be of any actual help?

You have very little to offer that the US actually needs..

If you want oil.. well... like Trump told you.. come and get it.. We dont particularly need your help there either.. we've got plenty..

 

[Brent in Az]

That's exactly why you're alone.Oh, wait—you still have Netanyahu.
Great, what a friend in need .

Israel has balls..... Europe?.....not so much.
I'll take Israel any day.

 

[DieJager]

I dont know if what Garcia lays out is an accurate depiction of what is going to happen...

but I do know that any "pause" in fighting isnt a period of time where either side just sits on their thumbs and waits to see if perminant peace is going to be acheieved or if theyre going to start slugging it out again..

Every second that bombs arent being dropped on Iran is a second that is being used to bring more bombs into theater, position ships better, do maintenance on aircraft, give the crews down time and sleep so that they will be more effective when they next man their aircraft... Intel assets are focuing on finding new targets.. etc etc...

I can assure you that the US and Israel are spending their time very wisely and planning and preparing for the next opportunity strike..

Thanks for you insights. This is why I post sometimes these articles to get expert knowledge from the likes of you and others like for example @Red Leg .

 

[Pondoro]

considering right now we're dealing with an air war... and Germany sent exactly zero fighter or bomber aircraft to Iraq or Afghanistan..

other than sending warships for escort duty to help with oil flow, which you need FAR more than the US or Israel does..

what exactly do you think Germany has the ability to do that would be of any actual help?

You have very little to offer that the US actually needs..

If you want oil.. well... like Trump told you.. come and get it.. We dont particularly need your help there either.. we've got plenty..

Midterms outcome dont bother you..?

 

[KJE81]

Serious question but do you really think that, considering how much the US contributes to NATO in both funding and manpower, that NATO would have significant value for the remaining members? Or retain its strategic value as a counter to Russia? Is that funding and manpower gap one that the current top members can fill?

I think it would be good if Europe would finally wake up, ie the US formally withdrawing from Nato...

Regarding the direct funding of Nato the US and Germany both pays 15,8 percent each, other countries pays less, apparently this is determined by the Gross national income of each member nation but somehow capped so that Germany pays an equal share as the US even though the US GNI is much higher then Germanys? https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/funding-nato

Aside from that each member pays for its own military forces, which make up the vast majority of NATO’s total resources. And here the US share is obviously the biggest, thats simply because your military budget is so much higher then anybody elses.

Regarding the 80 000 service members that the US has in Europe, If I understand it correctly the
U.S. presence in Europe is not made up solely of combat soldiers. The United States counts all military‑related personnel in its totals.

According to U.S. Army Europe and Africa (2024), the footprint includes:

• 38,500 military personnel (including about 14,000 rotational troops)
• 33,500 civilian employees (Department of the Army Civilians)
• 68,700 family members
• 8,700 local national employees

This means the American presence in Europe is a mixed ecosystem of uniformed troops, civilian specialists, technicians, administrative staff, support personnel, and their families — not just combat forces.

So for Europe to make up for this we would then need to add 38,500 more military personal if those numbers are correct? I dont think that would be impossible to do...considering that the standing forces of the european Nato members are about 1,9 million soldiers:

• Turkey: 481,000
• Poland: 216,000
• France: 205,000
• Germany: 186,000
• Italy: 171,000
• United Kingdom: 138,000
• Spain: 117,000
• Greece: 111,000
• Romania: 67,000
• Netherlands: 42,000
• Finland: 31,000
• Czech Republic: 30,000
• Portugal: 28,000
• Sweden: 15,000

Obviously we would also need to make up for the US contribution in Strategic airlift, Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Probably also logistics and perhaps also naval power? The question is if Nato without the US would need a true global blue water navy? Assuming the mission is to protect against Russia and not against for example China I mean...the European navies (UK, France, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Norway, Sweden, etc.) should be more than capable of dominating the Baltic, North Sea, Mediterranean, and Black Sea against the russians.

I think this can be done but of course it will take time and the sooner that Trump formally declares that the US will leave Nato we can start build it up for real...unfortunately I think that some european politicians would like to fool themselves into believing that they can wait for Trumps tenure to end and hope that someone more Nato friendly to be elected next.

 

[steve white]

Is the ceasefire the silence before the storm?

https://substack.com/@charliepgarcia/note/c-239909606

Well, you can bet the little devils in Iran are utilizing the ceasefire to re-equip, re-position, dig out from rubble and regroup for battle....

 

[jeanes]

Midterms outcome dont bother you..?

My crystal ball is cloudy, pray tell what are the midterm outcomes?

 

[mdwest]

Thanks for you insights. This is why I post sometimes these articles to get expert knowledge from the likes of you and others like for example @Red Leg .

to provide perspective.. the US can produce +/- 19,000 missiles per year across all major platforms without actually ramping up production.. this would include tomahawks, GMLRS, ATACMS, etc..

we've currently launched +/- 1800 various missiles in the 6 weeks of fighting.. so call that an "average" of 1200 a month.. so.. we're currently expending at a lower rate (14,400) a year than we can manufacture..

granted thats very fuzzy and generalized math... some systems take more time and energy than others.. so at the end of the year, without getting into details that shouldnt be put out on a public hunting forum, we have the ability to have MORE munitions on hand than we had before the war started.. and less on hand of other muntions types..

The concern isnt that the US will run out of munitions.. if we ramp up production we can WAY exceed what we need in a matter of just a few months..

The concern is how much is in theater, how is it stockpiled, how do you get it to the weapons systems that launch them, etc..etc.. without making them vulnerable..

any "pause" in fighting will be used to replenish those stockpiles..

Which is something Iran is finding increasingly harder and harder to do since much of its manufacturing capability has been destroyed and many of its launch systems have been destroyed..

a "pause" can be a major advantage to the US... other than getting a bit of a breather from the fighting, its not nearly as much of an advantage for the Iranians..

 

[Pondoro]

My crystal ball is cloudy, pray tell what are the midterm outcomes?

Lets see what happens shall we..?