Politics

[jruby]

Looking forward to hearing Trumps speech tonight. It will be interesting to see his logic and reasoning on Iran. Its about time he addresses the country on this excursion.

 

[mdwest]

I'm not european but it is not a well reasoned peice:

This part went totally off the rails:

Im not sure its an off the rails comment in the context he put it in...

His point is pretty simple.. if Europe thinks that Iran isnt its war.. when the fact of the matter is that geographically Iran is much closer to Europe than the US... and Ideologigally it is much further apart from Europe than Russia is from the US.. and knowing that Europe is dealing with a huge problem of infiltration of islamic societies (many tied to terror networks, etc)... then Ukranie, based on the same qualifiers isnt the US's war..

In other context he may be incorrect (I think he is)... Russia has been an enemy of the US since the closuring of WW2 (I'd argue they were our enemy before that... but the enemy of your enemy is your friend..).. Ukraine presents an opportunity to advance US strategic interests by deabilitating the Russian economy, Russian military, etc.. and perhaps through some psyops and civil affairs efforts also start to turn the Russian people against Putin..

But in the contex the author presents, as a European himself (A German at that).. I think his comments have some merit..

 

[jeanes]

Some of y'all that are knowledgeable help me out. I have read that 20% of the worlds oil passes thru the SoH and that 80% of that goes to the Far East, mostly to China. Does that mean that 4% goes elsewhere, mostly to Europe? Is this correct? How many million bpd does 4% represent?

 

[spike.t]

Trump administration exempts oil and gas drilling in the Gulf from Endangered Species Act

Nicknamed the "God Squad" by groups who say it can decide a species' fate, the government's Endangered Species Committee exempted oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from the Endangered Species Act.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[deewayne2003]

Trump administration exempts oil and gas drilling in the Gulf from Endangered Species Act

Nicknamed the "God Squad" by groups who say it can decide a species' fate, the government's Endangered Species Committee exempted oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico from the Endangered Species Act.

www.cbsnews.com

Nixon created the endangered species act so that he could protect or take land at will.

Example: If you have a piece of land and find 1 nest from an endangered bird then it is a "potential nesting sight" so it will be protected for others to come in, on the other hand if you have a piece of land with many nests it can be developed because it's reached saturation.

It all depends on the "assessment" by the governing authority.

I've dealt with this several times in the excavation industry over the Golden Cheeked Warbler; it's protected but I've gone through the process to be issued a permit to "take" the Golden Cheeked Warbler.

"Take" being defined as - kill, harm or harass

Also - The wind energy sector has had an exemption for years that allows them to kill predatory birds; if the oil industry killed as many raptors as wind turbines.....people would be in prison.

 

[LivingTheDream]

I'm not european but it is not a well reasoned peice:

This part went totally off the rails:

I dont think it is that nuts. Many European members are crying that this isnt there war, and America broke it and fuel prices are higher. Same token they have also critized the US for not doing more in Ukraine and accused the US of not really seeing the Russian threat.

To me it is very silo'd thinking that the US destroying Iranian missiles and drones doesnt hurt the Russian effort given Iran was supplying Russia with these.

With Venezuela falling, Iran falling and potentially Cuba, Russia becomes more and more isolated, also if you are a leader of a country and Russia says we have your back, not exactly reassuring.

To me it is nuts to say the US must he more involved in the Ukraine, but Europe cant even open its airspace to US planes when attacking Iran.

You can say Trump broke NATO with his words but Europeans, basically are not only not supporting our efforts but actively working against us by denying us airspace.

And to be clear before you go all saying I am MAGA blah blah, I think we should be supporting Ukraine more and think NATO is a great thing and didnt like Trump rhetoric around it, but this denying of us of airspace is a step too far and I see this as changing the relationship considerably.

 

[Scott CWO]

I guess we will see what happens in the future, anyway this article of a very recent interview with Trump does seems to suggest that he is seriously considering it: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...-strongly-considering-pulling-us-out-of-nato/

You do understand that Trump won’t be the President in two and a half years? And don’t give me that BS about a 3rd term.

 

[mdwest]

MAGA has become the new "racist"..

Every time a liberal wants to cry about something and you refute their BS with facts... youre "MAGA"...

Its actually comical and laughable..

"Hitler", "Racist", "Bigot", "Homophobe" and "Mysoginist" didnt work.. so lets try a new word lol..

 

[Scott CWO]

I'm not european but it is not a well reasoned peice:

This part went totally off the rails:

He wasn’t arguing that point. Just mentioning it to wake people up.

 

[Aaron N]

MAGA has become the new "racist"..

Every time a liberal wants to cry about something and you refute their BS with facts... youre "MAGA"...

Its actually comical and laughable..

"Hitler", "Racist", "Bigot", "Homophobe" and "Mysoginist" didnt work.. so lets try a new word lol..

Don’t forget leftist, librard, commie, blue haired…..

Tolerance and critical thinking are lacking from both poles of the political spectrum.

 

[jeanes]

MAGA has become the new "racist"..

Every time a liberal wants to cry about something and you refute their BS with facts... youre "MAGA"...

Its actually comical and laughable..

"Hitler", "Racist", "Bigot", "Homophobe" and "Mysoginist" didnt work.. so lets try a new word lol..

Don't forget "Fascist". IL Duce would be displeased.

 

[RLD]

I dont think it is that nuts. Many European members are crying that this isnt there war, and America broke it and fuel prices are higher. Same token they have also critized the US for not doing more in Ukraine and accused the US of not really seeing the Russian threat.

To me it is very silo'd thinking that the US destroying Iranian missiles and drones doesnt hurt the Russian effort given Iran was supplying Russia with these.

With Venezuela falling, Iran falling and potentially Cuba, Russia becomes more and more isolated, also if you are a leader of a country and Russia says we have your back, not exactly reassuring.

To me it is nuts to say the US must he more involved in the Ukraine, but Europe cant even open its airspace to US planes when attacking Iran.

You can say Trump broke NATO with his words but Europeans, basically are not only not supporting our efforts but actively working against us by denying us airspace.

And to be clear before you go all saying I am MAGA blah blah, I think we should be supporting Ukraine more and think NATO is a great thing and didnt like Trump rhetoric around it, but this denying of us of airspace is a step too far and I see this as changing the relationship considerably.

He lost me there because I think it is a misleading comparison.

The two wars are legally, morally and practically very different things.

The Ukraine conflict is clearly a defensive war where a democratic nation was invaded by an aggressive authoritarian state for expansionist reasons. It is clearly a good war or a "just war" if you believe in people's right to self determination. It is also a purely defensive war, that is supporting a nation that is being attacked. And that is not even mentioning that the United States was a key signatory to the Budapest Memorandum giving assurance to Ukraine's territorial integrity. People forget how import the Budapest Memorandum was. Plus there is the whole ethnic cleansing issue.

The current U.S. war against Iran is quite different. While I think everyone supports a non-nuclear armed Iraq, this war goes well beyond that. It intentionally killed the country's political leaders, and has attacked full military infrastructure, including their navy in particular, which has literally nothing to do with the threat of nuclear weapons. It looks like this war is (at its highest) a preventative defensive war which most legal scholars would agree is illegal under international law. No matter how you feel about it pragmatically it breaks a multitude of generally accepted international norms.

The approach of Trump (and others) saying "well we helped on Ukraine so you should help on Iran" is just transactional thinking. It just ignores the more complex and morally grey issues around attacking Iran. One of those wars was clearly just, one of them is certainly not black and white. They are not the same thing.

And practically, Trump being insulting to a number of nations and NATO in general, makes convincing the electorate in the countries he wants help from to get behind his initiative. I think we have all learned over the years that "selling" war on the home front is critical in a democracy, and Trump is a hard product to sell in Europe.

 

[mdwest]

I guess we will see what happens in the future, anyway this article of a very recent interview with Trump does seems to suggest that he is seriously considering it: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...-strongly-considering-pulling-us-out-of-nato/

Read prior posts..

Trump does not have the ability to pull the US out of NATO.

It takes a 2/3 vote from the US Senate.. Or an act of congress that passes both the house and the senate..

And AFTER that happens, the US has to provide NATO with a 1 year formal notice..

What Trump can do is simply refuse to involve the US in anything NATO related for the remainder of his term in office.. no more joint exercises.. no more allowing hundreds of NATO officers attend US war colleges, advanced military training at US school houses, etc.. no more funding of anything remotely linked to NATO.. no more participation in NATO command structure... and basically render NATO completely combat ineffective..

For the crying liberals out there.. whether you want to acknowledge facts and truth or not.. the US alone funds 16% of NATO's direct budget.. and 62% of NATO's defense spending comes from the US..

So.. Europe needs US participation in NATO far more than the US needs Europes participation...

If the US stops writing the checks (which is exactly what Trump would do).. it would push Europe to disbanding NATO and forming a new, fragmented alliance, without the US's money.. which for very obvious reasons would make the new alliance a pretty piss poor offensive fragment of what Europe had prior..

Europe and Canada may be finally after decades of abandon starting to ramp up its miliary capability again.. but what it took decades to destroy will take decades to rebuild..

And good luck continuing to fund all of those social welfare programs, dealing with your out of control migrant programs, etc.. while having to ramp up your defense and offense capabilities at an even faster pace once all US money is taken off the table..

People can get upset and moan until the cows come home.. it doesnt change the facts... Europe lacks the economy to continue on the path its on if it has to start footing the bills that the US has been carrying related to NATO (like 15% of the $6.5B it takes just to keep the NATO infrastructure funded in 2026 and 62% of the $1.5T in defense spending across the 32 NATO member countries)..

 

[RLD]

MAGA has become the new "racist"..

Every time a liberal wants to cry about something and you refute their BS with facts... youre "MAGA"...

Its actually comical and laughable..

"Hitler", "Racist", "Bigot", "Homophobe" and "Mysoginist" didnt work.. so lets try a new word lol..

I use the term MAGA differently. I use it to differentiate Trump and his policies from traditional conservative and Republican thinking, because they are very different things.

But name calling really doesn't get anyone very far. It is usually just a crutch for those too lazy or not bright enough to articulate their concerns about a person/policy.

 

[RLD]

Im not sure its an off the rails comment in the context he put it in...

His point is pretty simple.. if Europe thinks that Iran isnt its war.. when the fact of the matter is that geographically Iran is much closer to Europe than the US... and Ideologigally it is much further apart from Europe than Russia is from the US.. and knowing that Europe is dealing with a huge problem of infiltration of islamic societies (many tied to terror networks, etc)... then Ukranie, based on the same qualifiers isnt the US's war..

In other context he may be incorrect (I think he is)... Russia has been an enemy of the US since the closuring of WW2 (I'd argue they were our enemy before that... but the enemy of your enemy is your friend..).. Ukraine presents an opportunity to advance US strategic interests by deabilitating the Russian economy, Russian military, etc.. and perhaps through some psyops and civil affairs efforts also start to turn the Russian people against Putin..

But in the contex the author presents, as a European himself (A German at that).. I think his comments have some merit..

They only have merit if you conveniently ignore the U.S.'s status as a signatory to the Budapest memo.

 

[mdwest]

I use the term MAGA differently. I use it to differentiate Trump and his policies from traditional conservative and Republican thinking, because they are very different things.

But name calling really doesn't get anyone very far. It is usually just a crutch for those too lazy or not bright enough to articulate their concerns about a person/policy.

Completely concur...

The fact that some (not all) Trump policy is different than traditional conservative and R thinking is 100% spot on.. and pointing out that those differentiators are there and unique to the MAGA movement would I think be correct..

But liberals blind MAGA screaming to your point is tantamount to a baby crying because it cant articulate its point otherwise.. It is wrong.. wont admit its wong.. cant prove otherwise.. so.. "MAGA!!!!!"...

 

[mdwest]

They only have merit if you conveniently ignore the U.S.'s status as a signatory to the Budapest memo.

Im not seeing that connection at all..

the budapest memo was signed by the US, Russia, Ukraine, and the UK..

Russia violated it in 2014 and has been in violation consistently since 2014.. and the US and UK responded with financial assistance and economic sanctions against Russia.. and the entire world was fine with that response..

The Budapest Memo is NOT a treaty and does not actually confer any legal obligations for the signing states.. in fact it was written INTENTIONALLY in a manner that avoids legal obligation.. The UK and US pledges NON MILITARY SUPPORT to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine promising to adhere to the Treaty on Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons..

Nowhere does the Budapest Memo say if Russia attcks Ukraine is either the UK or US obligated in any way to go to war or to support Ukraine militarily..

In fact the Budapest Memo offers exactly ZERO guarantees to anyone.. it merely offers "assurances" (and, again, was written that way on purpose)..

 

[RLD]

Im not seeing that connection at all..

the budapest memo was signed by the US, Russia, Ukraine, and the UK..

Russia violated it in 2014 and has been in violation consistently since 2014.. and the US and UK responded with financial assistance and economic sanctions against Russia.. and the entire world was fine with that response..

The Budapest Memo is NOT a treaty and does not actually confer any legal obligations for the signing states.. in fact it was written INTENTIONALLY in a manner that avoids legal obligation.. The UK and US pledges NON MILITARY SUPPORT to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine promising to adhere to the Treaty on Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons..

Nowhere does the Budapest Memo say if Russia attcks Ukraine is either the UK or US obligated in any way to go to war or to support Ukraine militarily..

In fact the Budapest Memo offers exactly ZERO guarantees to anyone.. it merely offers "assurances" (and, again, was written that way on purpose)..

We could have a long discussion about the difference between an assurance and a guarantee, but the point of having the U.S. as a signatory to an agreement to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty was to give Ukraine enough confidence in American backing so that they would give up their nuclear arsenal, and thus support the goal of non-proliferation that the United States has long been invested in. Most people expect Russia to behave in such a dishonest fashion, but expect the other signatories to support the aggrieved party, which the U.S. has done. I don't suggest the U.S. has failed its responsibilities under that agreement (I think it has fulfilled them) but rather to point out there is no equivilance between the two situations.

The point here is there is nothing remotely similar in place between the NATO countries and Iran and the strait. That current crisis is a Trump creation.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Trump‘s birthright citizenship executive order arguments in front of the Supreme Court today;

I’m betting the Supreme Court rules in June it’s settled law. Your argument is not with the USSC. Go back and ask Congress to rewrite the law or enforce the border laws and limit illegal immigration to limit illegal babies born here.

 

[mdwest]

We could have a long discussion about the difference between an assurance and a guarantee, but the point of having the U.S. as a signatory to an agreement to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty was to give Ukraine enough confidence in American backing so that they would give up their nuclear arsenal, and thus support the goal of non-proliferation that the United States has long been invested in. Most people expect Russia to behave in such a dishonest fashion, but expect the other signatories to support the aggrieved party, which the U.S. has done. I don't suggest the U.S. has failed its responsibilities under that agreement (I think it has fulfilled them) but rather to point out there is no equivilance between the two situations.

The point here is there is nothing remotely similar in place between the NATO countries and Iran and the strait. That current crisis is a Trump creation.

We are probably talking past each other and are in agreement..

Theres no doubt in my mind that the Iran war (in its current capacity) was initiated by the US/Israel..
And if Europe doesnt want to play.. I'd agree that is certainly Europes perogative..

That said.. what liberal Europeans dont want to acknowledge is.. and what remains absolutely true.. is that in the short term (lets define that as 20 years), Europe needs the US far more than the US needs Europe.. and Europe needs NATO far more than the US needs NATO..

Thats not to say there isnt a symbiotic relationship there and that both parties cant benefit..

But the facts are the facts.. no matter how much someone wants to cry about them..

The US funds more than 1/6th of the total cost of managing/administering NATO.. it is only 1/32nd of the alliance.. Other countries simply arent paying as much.. and yet they want equal control, equal say, etc.. and the US funds 62% of NATOs total defensive and offensive capability.. yet is only 1/32nd of the alliance... and other countries want equal control, equal say, etc..

And in the past.. they largely have been given an equal seat at the table...

Today.. thats changed.. Europe doesnt like it.. and the US is saying "we dont care that you dont like it.. pony up.. or shut the fuck up.."..

So.. Europe.. wants more US participation in Ukraine (the US has spent more than all the other NATO countries combined by the way... $114B.. vs Germany at $21B, UK at 18B, etc.. etc..)?

Well.. screw you... you take care of Europe and increase your spend there.. we've got an issue in Iran we need to take care of... that we believe you'll ultimately benefit from (less global terrorism.. a non nuclear Iran.. more stability in the region.. etc..)...

You dont like that your oil prices have gone up? well.. screw you again... you want us to participate in European problems.. and participate at a rate much higher than your continent has collectively participated.. but you dont want to participate in Iran... thats your perogative.. but.. the consequences of your perogative are youre and yours alone..

and if you dont like it... screw you..

Thats Trump in a nutshell.. right, wrong, or indifferent... and all the liberal tears on the planet wont change it..