Politics

[Wheels]

it's kinda sporty in here these days.

Quick question for the peanut gallery - especially those that know more about energy infrastructure.

If the US has established influence in Venezuela, this partially reduces oil flow to China.
If we stop up the Gulf oil flow, it reduces oil flow to China.
If we neutralize the Iranian problem and restore flow, it reduces the flow or increases the cost to China.

Meanwhile, without knowing the real #'s, I think the US imports less than 5-10% of oil and gas from the region as we are pretty much self sufficient thanks to shale extraction tech.

Is there an angle at play where, as long as we don't send in troops, we just keep laying waste to Iran until the threat is eliminated and in the worst case, even if the surrounding oil production infrastructure of the Gulf region is decimated, America becomes the primary oil & gas seller?

Further along - Trump has disparaged NATO in the past and recently. He's not a fan of the UN, and I would posit, he's not looking at the EU as friends as much as parasites in an economic sense.

This situation would leave EU hurting for fuel, China impacted on it's oil supply from 2 major sources, NATO and UN on a path to breaking up, and leaving EU to face the ever-perceived threat of Russia (not stating opinion here... just noticing an eternal trend) on their own without US funding or treaty support.

The Euro collapses, the US maintains dollar as the reserve currency and it now has a path to grow stronger.

You have summarized it pretty well.

At this point opening the SoH for the well being of the gulf states seem to be of prime importance to Trump. Otherwise he might close shop and go home saying mission done.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

I am bracing for May.

For those of us in a lot of rural Alaska we only see price changes when the barges begin showing up. We have been at $6.49 since last summer. I fear this will be an excuse for prices to go well above 7, and maybe even 8. And if so? We're stuck with that for a year.

 

[shootist~]

You have summarized it pretty well.

At this point opening the SoH for the well being of the gulf states seem to be of prime importance to Trump. Otherwise he might close shop and go home saying mission done.

But if Iranian oil is no longer sanctioned (i.e. not under control of Islamic regime) , China pays full price instead of getting deep discounts.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

View attachment 755446

Does Jan 6, 2021 count?

 

[mdwest]

As a carry on to the desalinization plant crying...

There are more than 400 desalinization plants in the gulf region... some of them are OUTSIDE of Iranian missile range... Roughly 60 of those plants are considered major facilities..

Based on the number of targets Iran has actually hit so far (only 6 successful hits on targets of any significance).. and based on their current dwindling success rate on attacks.. and understanding that Iran has depleted its missile and drone stockpiles and that almost 2/3 of its missile launchers are now confirmed to be destroyed..

Exactly how worried should the world be about the Iranians taking out a significant number of desalinization plants to the extent that the gulf region is going to thirst to death...

Once again FACTS trump emotions and an emotional persons inability to research or conduct even basic levels of analysis..

 

[skydiver386]

Secret Service Agent accidentally shoots himself while on security detail for Jill Biden.

Wondering if he was carrying one of those South Korean pistols?

 

[mdwest]

Secret Service Agent accidentally shoots himself while on security detail for Jill Biden.

Wondering if he was carrying one of those South Korean pistols?

Im not tracking the Korean pistol reference.. did the USSS buy a bunch of Daewoo's or something recently?

 

[KJE81]

So we should alter our course and goals based on threats issued by a combatant that is getting their ass handed to them?

You asked why they would attack the desalination plants and I answered why...I cant see that I offered any opinion on it or in any way suggested that the US should alter course due to the threat?

 

[shootist~]

Speaking of hitting water plants - this was a good one to hit (again).

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037572295443599719

 

[KJE81]

$4.19 when I filled up this morning. Was right around $3 most of the year before everything started.

I filled up the car this morning and then it was up around 30 cents since before the war started...unfortunately in our case thats per litre and not per gallon

 

[Nyati]

At this point opening the SoH for the well being of the gulf states seem to be of prime importance to Trump. Otherwise he might close shop and go home saying mission done.

At last, a post making lots of sense

The Gulf States are fuming at Trump and Bibi for starting this war, they are suffering finantially from it and will keep suffering in the future as the Gulf´s reputation as a safe place to do business (and tourism) has been shattered.

 

[SaintPanzer]

You need a civics lesson. GOP needs 60 votes to pass the DHS funding, Hence, why it has been blocked by Democrats 8 times so far.

Um, point of order: The GOP just needs a majority of the votes, or "plus the VP" if there's a tie. They need 60 votes to bring a motion to the floor, which is similar (can't get voted on if you don't bring it to the floor), but not the same thing.

 

[mdwest]

But if Iranian oil is no longer sanctioned (i.e. not under control of Islamic regime) , China pays full price instead of getting deep discounts.

I think the key there is "not under control of the Islamic regime"..

I dont see a full blown regime change happening (hopefully Im wrong.. but I dont think I will be)...

What I do see is Iran being set back on its heels for several decades as it tries to recover economically and materially.. which means their ability to continue to state sponsor terror, supply weapon systems and munitions to our advasaries, harrass shipping in the gulf, etc gets reduced dramatically....

Their only resource to help them recover is oil.. which means we're going to want to continue to sanction the hell out of it and make them sell it at reduced prices to whoever (China) is willing to ignore the sanctions..

If we break their military backs well enough, the region will be stabilized (at least from the Iran perspective) enough that the larger surrounding powers like Israel and Saudi (who hate the Iranian regime more than the Israelis do) will be able to keep them in check on their own or with very little US assistance for a pretty long time..

I said it several pages back... unless the Iranians do something stupid and cross over a line that they absolutely dont want to cross over, that forces a ground invasion (which guarantees regime change and the death of prety much anyone that remotely looks like they are in charge of anything), this war lasts 2-3 more weeks in the short term (If the Iranians come to their senses early).. or 2-3 more months in the long term...

In 3 months, assuming we continue to hit them like we have been hitting them so far, there will be no strategic targets left to take out.. no leaders with any measure of experience left to take out.. and their economy and infrastructure will be so damaged that they wont be a threat to anyone for decades..

China doesnt want regime change.. and they definitely dont want to see a ground invasion.. I am pretty sure theyre on the phone with the Iranians daily advising them, coaching them, etc..

 

[SaintPanzer]

What if worms had machine guns? I bet the birds wouldn’t fuck with them…

Well, but what if the birds had Mk20 Rockeyes and napalm?

 

[mark-hunter]

10.000 more..? This is hardly for just taking Kharg Island..

Russian "blitzkrieg" failed at first attempt with 150.000 troops on much smaller country, then they switched to war of attrition and mobilization of 30.000 per month or more.
Now deploying 450-600.000 as per AI.

Who knows what lays ahead?

 

[mdwest]

Well, but what if the birds had Mk20 Rockeyes and napalm?

worms would be burrowing much deeper!

 

[deewayne2003]

Does Jan 6, 2021 count?

Depends if you can find out the political affiliations of the 200+ undercover federal agents that were there.

Also...... Who is Ray Epps?

 

[skydiver386]

Im not tracking the Korean pistol reference.. did the USSS buy a bunch of Daewoo's or something recently?

GROCK

Best selling handgun in South Korea.

 

[Flewis]

GROCK

Best selling handgun in South Korea.

Oh that’s bad! Funny as hell but bad.

 

[Flipper Dude]

You asked why they would attack the desalination plants and I answered why...I cant see that I offered any opinion on it or in any way suggested that the US should alter course due to the threat?

I’m sorry. I had directed that question to @Pondoro , who had raised a concern about it. I didn’t direct that response to him, however