Politics

[mdwest]

Their employees in South Carolina might disagree with you. And it is just one example of a company building infrastructure to reduce their reliance on American production. Plenty of others are doing the same thing.

Roughly $3.3T has been invested so far (or commitments have been made and the total value has yet to be expended) in building new plants and supporting infrastructure in the US since January 2025.

And the BMW plant in South Carolina isnt closing.. it still employs 11,000 people and will continue to be the primary supplier of BMWs to the US market (the largest BMW market on the planet)..

BMW may indeed be building new plants to service other markets like Canada, Mexico, etc that have been impacted by tariffs.. but the 30,000 BMW's Canada bought last year and the 19,000 BMW's Mexico bought are a mere drop in the bucket compared to the 390,000 BMWs purchased in the US..

BMW isnt walking away from that market and will not shut its plant down anytime soon..

A few jobs MIGHT go away (although BMW has said nothing about this) in South Carolina..

But I think the US will take the $3.3T investment from all of the other companies that are currently building plants and new infrastructure and bringing new jobs to the US in exchange for them gleefully..

At the end of the day companies may or may not want to completely rely on American production.. but more than enough are willing to jump into any market void that opens up to replace anyone that chooses to walk away..

Like it or not, the US is still the biggest economy on the planet.. and Americans are rabid consumers... and companies like making money...

BMW (and anyone else) building additional plants elsewhere will have little to no impact at all on the US...

 

[RLD]

NATO was required at the time but that time is about 25 years past what should have been its expiration date. In my opinion the US should stop threatening and just quit the NATO alliance.

Good luck with that.

If I understand correctly, in fear of Trump taking office Congress "Trump proofed" NATO:

The Senate Tried to Trump-Proof NATO. Now They Hope Their Effort Worked.

A 2023 law, co-sponsored by Trump’s secretary of state pick, Marco Rubio, is giving senators some assurance, as it makes it much harder for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO.

www.notus.org

It is hard to imagine 2/3's of the Senate buying into that.

 

[mdwest]

You left out South Korea and Japan..last time I checked they were allies..

and again, what does that have to do with anything?

so is Norway (although you clearly hate that, lol)...

so.. take a minute and read WAB's post.. so that you dont continue to look like a moron.. and try very hard to understand what he said.. .

The world BENEFITS (that would include not just US allies, but EVERYONE that is not aligned with Iran) if the world finds an alternative to the straits..

 

[Brent in Az]

So… maybe we’re perfectly happy with the straits being closed for a few months while we ramp up production?

2-3 months of pain in exchange for decades of reward…

I wasn't happy at the gas pump this morning paying 43% more than last month.
A little extra pain is one thing, a lot more is another matter in the eyes of the average American. The economy was getting somewhat better, then it was crushed by the rapid rise in oil prices.
As usual, the geniuses in Washington probably didn't think things thru. If they did, well ........

 

[wesheltonj]

So… maybe we’re perfectly happy with the straits being closed for a few months while we ramp up production?

2-3 months of pain in exchange for decades of reward…

For example in Atascosa County, EOG has drilling permits approved from at least December 2024 and have yet to still drill those permits. By the way EOG has not drilled a dry hole in the Eagle Ford. It's been the price per barrel, as to why the those permits are drilled. At $100 per Barrel those permits are positive for drilling and $60 they are just going to sit.

 

[Tanks]

Regarding allied help in the Strait of Hormuz. If NATO looses Lindsey Graham they loose their biggest cheerleader in the Senate.

Most of NATO supports a non NATO country in Ukraine but doesn’t support a NATO country in the gulf. Trump is putting the countries on record.
...

Why should anyone get upset at NATO countries for not getting involved in a war that is started by another without Article 5 getting invoked?

As far as helping Ukraine is concerned, they were attacked and also has ramifications for the rest of NATO if Russia takes over Ukraine (history lesson: NATO was formed as an anti-USSR defensive alliance).

They do not need to support USA for wars that USA starts. NATO is a defensive alliance.

Now, I agree that Trump asking them for help in keeping the Straits open is a brilliant move. He knew they would reject it, but now they can't complain about it being closed. They will anyway, but all the USA has to say is "You chose to do nothing about it."

 

[Pondoro]

Do you realize how isolated USA is becoming..? No response from Europe nor Asia (even if the latter are the most impacted..) regarding Hormuz..

Keep on ranting while the rest of the world turn their backs on you..and watch the global economy take a dive..

 

[RLD]

Roughly $3.3T has been invested so far (or commitments have been made and the total value has yet to be expended) in building new plants and supporting infrastructure in the US since January 2025.

And the BMW plant in South Carolina isnt closing.. it still employs 11,000 people and will continue to be the primary supplier of BMWs to the US market (the largest BMW market on the planet)..

BMW may indeed be building new plants to service other markets like Canada, Mexico, etc that have been impacted by tariffs.. but the 30,000 BMW's Canada bought last year and the 19,000 BMW's Mexico bought are a mere drop in the bucket compared to the 390,000 BMWs purchased in the US..

BMW isnt walking away from that market and will not shut its plant down anytime soon..

A few jobs MIGHT go away (although BMW has said nothing about this) in South Carolina..

But I think the US will take the $3.3T investment from all of the other companies that are currently building plants and new infrastructure and bringing new jobs to the US in exchange for them gleefully..

At the end of the day companies may or may not want to completely rely on American production.. but more than enough are willing to jump into any market void that opens up to replace anyone that chooses to walk away..

Like it or not, the US is still the biggest economy on the planet.. and Americans are rabid consumers... and companies like making money...

BMW (and anyone else) building additional plants elsewhere will have little to no impact at all on the US...

I trust the 3.3 trillion commitment number like I trust the numbers DOGE said they would save, or the 18 trillion in tariffs Trump says he has collected.

49,000 out of 440,000 is about 11%? I don't know who you work for, but I bet they would suggest a loss of 11% of business is more than a drop in the bucket.

American clearly is the largest, richest country in the world. But if the tariffs drive companies and countries to shift some of their business away from the United States, that is not good in the long term.

To me, it's not like a sporting event. I don't cheer for the U.S. to lose. I like the idea of a rich, successful United States. I would much rather have a rich, healthy neighbour/ally than a weak one. I just don't think the current policies will produce long term good results.

 

[Tanks]

Yall seem to fail to read it was a mistype had 2 housefires and a commercial fire yesterday swapped bad for good in post wich i corrected . And im not about to tell myself shit

How are we supposed to differentiate between your mistypes and regular grammar and spelling errors? Hard to read your mind,

 

[Pondoro]

Crude $108 and rising..

 

[mdwest]

I trust the 3.3 trillion commitment number like I trust the numbers DOGE said they would save, or the 18 trillion in tariffs Trump says he has collected.

49,000 out of 440,000 is about 11%? I don't know who you work for, but I bet they would suggest a loss of 11% of business is more than a drop in the bucket.

American clearly is the largest, richest country in the world. But if the tariffs drive companies and countries to shift some of their business away from the United States, that is not good in the long term.

To me, it's not like a sporting event. I don't cheer for the U.S. to lose. I like the idea of a rich, successful United States. I would much rather have a rich, healthy neighbour/ally than a weak one. I just don't think the current policies will produce long term good results.

The $3.3T number may be inflated (no one knows.. all we can count on is the commitments.. we wont know about the real numbers until all of the money is actually spent)..

But...

While BMW may be building an automotive plant outside of the US to cater to Canada and Mexico.. Hyundai has already broken ground on a new plant in the US that it is spending $21B on..

TSMC (Taiwan) has already broken ground on multiple new manufacturing facilities in the US.. its commitment is $100B..

Novatis (Swiss) has already broken ground on multiple new manufacturing facilities ($23B commitment).. they intend on building 10 plants..

DAMAC has already broken ground on multiple new data centers ($20B commitment)..

Hynundai is also building a brand new steel mill in Louisiana.. its Hyundai's first steel mill in the US.. it will produce about 2.7M tons of steel a year.

and the list goes on and on and on..

So.. BMW moves 11% of its automotive assembly outside the US (11% of the 11,000 jobs in SC would be 1210) ... while Hyundai opens its new plant in Georgia and hires 12,000 people..

SC might wince at the lost of 1210 paychecks.. but Georgia is dancing with 12,000 new paychecks...


Im of the opinion that the long term effects will be extremely positive..

Hyundai's costs are sunk.. once they open that plant, its opened.. and all of the money required to build it is spent.. (as one example.. the same is true for everyone else currently building)..

Trump is gone in 2.5 years..

Those fleeing (like BMW) have the ability to return as soon as he is gone.. the facility is still there.. and any cost advantage they had before is still there..

And the number of companies fleeing appear to be much smaller in number than the number of companies coming into the US to build/manufacture in an attempt to avoid the tariffs (and to please Trump)..

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

BMW? No big loss. A bit off subject but a couple of my neighbors have had nothing but problems with their BMWs and notoriously expensive to fix.

My wife has had 3 BMW X5 over a 20 year period and no major issues whatsoever. Just normal maintenance.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

For example in Atascosa County, EOG has drilling permits approved from at least December 2024 and have yet to still drill those permits. By the way EOG has not drilled a dry hole in the Eagle Ford. It's been the price per barrel, as to why the those permits are drilled. At $100 per Barrel those permits are positive for drilling and $60 they are just going to sit.

There's also the issue of pipeline capacity, for both oil and natural gas. If either of the pipelines are full, then that is the bottleneck and determining factor on the pace of drilling. Nobody spends money to drill and complete a well, only to have it shut in because no pipeline capacity exists.

 

[mdwest]

My wife has had 3 BMW X5 over a 20 year period and no major issues whatsoever. Just normal maintenance.

We had a fully loaded X5 for about 5 years.. it was a wonderful car....

until my wife hit a deer at about 75 MPH on Pellisippi Parkway in Knoxville lol..

on the plus side, the car is incredibly safe.. neither she nor my daughter were hurt..

but holy hell.. the amount of damage a 100 lb doe can do at 75 MPH is unreal..

 

[RLD]

The $3.3T number may be inflated (no one knows.. all we can count on is the commitments.. we wont know about the real numbers until all of the money is actually spent)..

But...

While BMW may be building an automotive plant outside of the US to cater to Canada and Mexico.. Hyundai has already broken ground on a new plant in the US that it is spending $21B on..

TSMC (Taiwan) has already broken ground on multiple new manufacturing facilities in the US.. its commitment is $100B..

Novatis (Swiss) has already broken ground on multiple new manufacturing facilities ($23B commitment).. they intend on building 10 plants..

DAMAC has already broken ground on multiple new data centers ($20B commitment)..

and the list goes on and on and on..

So.. BMW moves 11% of its automotive assembly outside the US (11% of the 11,000 jobs in SC would be 1210) ... while Hyundai opens its new plant in Georgia and hires 12,000 people..

SC might wince at the lost of 1210 paychecks.. but Georgia is dancing with 12,000 new paychecks...


Im of the opinion that the long term effects will be extremely positive..

Hyundai's costs are sunk.. once they open that plant, its opened.. and all of the money required to build it is spent.. (as one example.. the same is true for everyone else currently building)..

Trump is gone in 2.5 years..

Those fleeing (like BMW) have the ability to return as soon as he is gone.. the facility is still there.. and any cost advantage they had before is still there..

And the number of companies fleeing appear to be much smaller in number than the number of companies coming into the US to build/manufacture in an attempt to avoid the tariffs (and to please Trump)..

It's a complicated equation figuring out the impact of tariffs because we need to tease out what those companies would have built in the United States even without the tariffs before we know what impact the tariffs have. It will be years before we can tell for sure, but I don't see the winning trend happening yet. Perhaps I am just a glass half empty kind of guy!

The spending commitments we can say are likely primarily B.S. because some of the countries that Trump says made the commitments pretty much denied they existed within a day or two of the Trump announcement or said something very different than how Trump announced them. Many of those commitments are apparently structured as loans. New debt, hooray. I suspect those loans would have been made if sought with or without the trade negotiations.

 

[wesheltonj]

There's also the issue of pipeline capacity, for both oil and natural gas. If either of the pipelines are full, then that is the bottleneck and determining factor on the pace of drilling. Nobody spends money to drill and complete a well, only to have it shut in because no pipeline capacity exists.

One area that I am aware of has two gas pipelines (Williams) running right by the completed but empty drilling pad. As for Oil, the money trucks are running up and down the county road all day and night collecting Black Gold.

I've noticed several wells in that area don't have pump jacks. I was told EOG is using some process where the bring up the oil and then push it back down the hole and bring it back up again and then put into tanks. I have zero clue how that works.

 

[Tanks]

NATO was required at the time but that time is about 25 years past what should have been its expiration date. In my opinion the US should stop threatening and just quit the NATO alliance.

How many US bases would be closed as a result of it, including withdrawing the nuclear weapons stored at some of those bases?

Do you think it would be in our interest to cede Europe to Russia?

BTW, USA does make a ton of money selling weapons to NATO countries. They'd have no incentive to do so anymore.

 

[mdwest]

Do you realize how isolated USA is becoming..? No response from Europe nor Asia (even if the latter are the most impacted..) regarding Hormuz..

Keep on ranting while the rest of the world turn their backs on you..and watch the global economy take a dive..

I think the problem is that you dont realize how little the US cares...

The sooner you realize and understand that the US is very purposefully pulling back from its relationships, the sooner you can stop crying in your cheerios and stamping your feet like a child..

the only question is how much pull back is the appropriate amount? there are very far/hard right isolationists (your boy Joe Kent that you seem to love and appreciate is one of them by the way... which makes you a bit of a duplistic hypocrite I believe).. and there are centrists that do believe the rest of the world needed to be put in check, but to a lessor degree than the Kents, Vances, Hawleys, etc..

The other thing you fail to realize is.. if the global economy takes a dive.. YOU will most likely hurt much more than the US..

The US economy is simply larger and able to take a beating much more readily than most of the rest of the world..

Everyone sucks during a global recession..

But generally speaking the US sucks less than everyone else..

The US felt the last recession from 2008-2010...

Europe got a double dip and re-entered recession in 2011..

The US staggered around 6.7% unemployment for most of the recession while Europe hung around closer to the 12% mark..

 

[Tanks]

For example in Atascosa County, EOG has drilling permits approved from at least December 2024 and have yet to still drill those permits. By the way EOG has not drilled a dry hole in the Eagle Ford. It's been the price per barrel, as to why the those permits are drilled. At $100 per Barrel those permits are positive for drilling and $60 they are just going to sit.

A friend of mine has oil leases on her land in TX, she makes money when oil is over $60/barrel.

 

[mdwest]

The spending commitments we can say are likely primarily B.S. because some of the countries that Trump says made the commitments pretty much denied they existed within a day or two of the Trump announcement or said something very different than how Trump announced them. Many of those commitments are apparently structured as loans. New debt, hooray. I suspect those loans would have been made if sought with or without the trade negotiations.

I dont disagree on the spending commitments..

but.. the examples laid out in the prior post are very clearly real.. ground is already broken.. facilities are being built.. people are being hired.. etc..etc..etc..

there is zero doubt that Hyundai will employ 12,000 people in Georgia...

while there may be some doubt as to whether or not BMW will lay anyone off in South Carolina..