Politics

[WAB]

Misses the point entirely. Oil is a global commodity. Even if we cover our needs with domestic production, price will be set by global supply and demand. Take a major supply point out, short the world’s oil supply, and the price goes up globally.

I should clarify that my comment was regarding Marine 1’s original assertion that the US could supply their own needs.

 

[WAB]

That’s my understanding too of our refineries being built to process the sour crude from the Middle East (and now Canada) which we imported for decades before the relatively recent sweet crude oil boom here which many our refineries can’t/don’t process without spending millions to retrofit them for refining our sweet crude. The oil companies export much of our lighter crude at a premium price overseas and we import the heavier crude at a lower price as our refineries are set up to process the heavier crude. At least this is my understanding after reading several articles on the subject. Maybe a petroleum expert(s) here can chime in and clarify it?

A refinery configured for heavy sour (coking refinery) can run light sweet crude. They would likely have to run at reduced rates due to higher light fractions content. The real problem is it is not economical. These refineries have a heavy investment in metallurgy and bottoms conversion capability to allow them to process the less expensive heavy crudes.

Refineries configured for light sweet crude (cracking refineries) cannot process high concentrations of heavy sour. Even if they accept the inordinately high residual/asphalt production, they do not have the metallurgy to handle this material.

 

[spike.t]

 

[Red Leg]

Thinking about this operation a bit, it must be presenting huge implications to the Chinese with respect to Taiwan.

For instance, the power and simultaneity of the joint force attack is pretty staggering. Those initial fires included ground launched ATACMs missiles; air, ground, and sea launched cruise missiles; precision airstrikes using HARM anti-radar munitions and JDAMS; cyber attacks; and undetectable strategic bomber sorties flying 38-hour round trip missions from the American heartland (something no other nation has the remotest capability of doing). That is scaling the initial blow to thousands of simultaneously struck targets. That sort of scale not only reflects on the quality of the hardware, but perhaps more directly on the professionalism of the entire joint force from command planning, through execution, to support and fielding. This and the observation below also casts significant doubt about the quality and effectiveness of Russian and Chinese air defense capabilities and doctrine.

Second, would be the utter ruthlessness of the attack. In the opening minutes the presiding leadership of both the nation and its armed forces was killed. The most newsworthy was the strike which hit the leadership meeting in Tehran, but at the same time headquarters and command and control centers all across the Iranian defense structure were also hit. The Chinese leadership has to realize that those same assets could be carrying out the same sorts of conventional missions virtually anywhere in China.

Third, the intelligence preparation of the battlefield is better than anything I have yet seen. Most importantly, it seems to be extremely timely. One of the major criticisms to which I can personally testify was the lack of timeliness of national and theater-level intelligence during the Gulf War and much of the more recent Afghan and Iraqi conflicts. The US seems to have finally broken the intel parochialism, particularly strategic, that delayed so much critical targeting information in the past.

Fourth, the US seems to have total control over the cyber and non-hardwire communications network. To the extent the Iranian Aerospace forces had any ability to exercise current targeting, that was destroyed in the opening sorties. An Iranian hypersonic missile with terminal guidance might seem a real threat to something like an aircraft carrier, but without the ability to target transient targets in real time, that asset becomes simply another target waiting on the ground to be destroyed.

Fifth, underground facilities sound impressive. But with the right munitions and delivery mechanisms, they suddenly are nothing more than highly vulnerable and easily identified fixed targets. According to CENTCOM, Iranian missile launches are down 90% from the opening day or two of the conflict. That is because Iranian missile stockpiles are being hugely attritted inside their caves. China can be assured similar targeting is being updated daily of its storage locations.

For both nations, the challenge represented by cheap attack drones needs to solved. The US used them for the first time during this campaign against fixed soft targets like radars, air defense sites, and naval assets. An interceptor like THAAD or Patriot can easily engage them, but it is an unsustainable trade ratio. Instead, both area and point defense solutions need to be fielded quickly. The navy is currently operating a laser equipped destroyer with the Ford battle group. Other energy related solutions are being tested by the USMC and Army. One would assume the Chinese are doing the same.

Finally, this challenge is likely only get worse for the Chinese. The first US Army hypersonic units have already been deployed in PACOM (that is now open source) and will soon be a permanent asset. The B-21 Raider will soon go into full rate production, and instead of having 19 stealth strategic bombers, the US will have 100 or more. The F-35 will continue its fielding across the joint force and the F-47 is on the horizon. China must also decide what to do about US bases in Japan, the Philippines, the Indian Ocean, and likely Australia. They can not hope to be successful in taking Taiwan if the US Air Force and Navy have regional sanctuaries that can not be interdicted. This has not been a particularly successful effort by Iran. Japan, especially, can be counted upon to vigorously defend its sovereignty - I wish I felt the same way about Australia.

 

[HuntingGold]

I appreciate that write-up. Thank you @Red Leg

 

[Brent in Az]

Damn....I thought it was all about peoples rights....Or nuclear bombs,....or failure to negotiate,.... or religion,....or being a shitty neighbor......????

All of the above. But when they were searching for the alleged WMD's in the Iraq war, some people were screaming that it was all about oil.

 

[deewayne2003]

Well congressman Tony Gonzales has dropped out of Texas district 23 race.

During the last election, Tony Gonzales went on a mud slinging campaign and with Tony's past indiscretions; I'm sure he dropped out rather than face a fire storm of facts about his own actions coming to light......

 

[bowjijohn]

Three things strike me

The extraordinary level of technological and strategic sophistication that the US possesses and has demonstrated to the world

The level of cooperation between the US and Israel

The utter gutlessness and incompetence - politically morally and militarily - demonstrated by my adopted country- the UK

I’ve never felt so humbled by the former, and so ashamed by the latter

J

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Three things strike me

The extraordinary level of technological and strategic sophistication that the US possesses and has demonstrated to the world

The level of cooperation between the US and Israel

The utter gutlessness and incompetence - politically morally and militarily - demonstrated by my adopted country- the UK

I’ve never felt so ashamed

J

It is quite sad. I feel for all the sensible, decent people who live in countries that are shadows of their former selfs

 

[Brent in Az]

Well....of course it's a Clinton appointed Judge.

What about all the tariff costs that got passed on to the end user?

Clinton-appointed judge orders refunds in Trump tariffs after SCOTUS ruling | Fox News https://share.google/sfuHSNdqbtYWcZmvK

 

[spike.t]

Pissing even more of their neighbours off.....

Azerbaijan furious with Iran as war spills over its border

President Ilham Aliyev says drone strikes are an "act of terror" as he places the armed forces on high alert.

www.bbc.com

 

[spike.t]

Oil price jumps after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says energy prices for everyone will rise if the Iran war continues.

www.bbc.com

 

[Marine 1]

I heard rumors about the USA totally shutting down all docking facilities and pipelines Iran has , I don’t think it has to be destructive to the structure or bombed we can just shut it down remotely, sadam Husain rampage and scorched earth policy wouldn’t serve Iran well imo

I agree. Those facilities will be needed to get Iran back on track.

 

[Russ16]

Well....of course it's a Clinton appointed Judge.

What about all the tariff costs that got passed on to the end user?

Clinton-appointed judge orders refunds in Trump tariffs after SCOTUS ruling | Fox News https://share.google/sfuHSNdqbtYWcZmvK

The conservative SCOTUS ruled the tariff illegal. Do you really think payers shouldn’t get the money back that was paid on an illegal tariff? It’s essentially an overpayment of taxes. Should no one get tax refunds?

 

[Wheels]

Her husband? You are mistaken.

You are correct. Good job calling me out. I misunderstood the congressional hearings. It was the staffers husband and not Noem’s husband.

 

[Marine 1]

Misses the point entirely. Oil is a global commodity. Even if we cover our needs with domestic production, price will be set by global supply and demand. Take a major supply point out, short the world’s oil supply, and the price goes up globally.

Oil is a global commodity. I believe we are doing the right thing by taking out Iran. 1000s of American service members are willing to put their lives on the line to make the world a better place. So far, six have made the ultimate sacrifice. At the very least, we can absorb a price increase in gas. It won't last long.

 

[Marine 1]

The conservative SCOTUS ruled the tariff illegal. Do you really think payers shouldn’t get the money back that was paid on an illegal tariff? It’s essentially an overpayment of taxes. Should no one get tax refunds?

What did you buy that was higher because of tariffs? I have a gun shop; we were not affected by tariffs. My wholesale prices stayed the same and are less in some cases.

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

For the LOTR fans in the audience.

 

[CoElkHunter]

A refinery configured for heavy sour (coking refinery) can run light sweet crude. They would likely have to run at reduced rates due to higher light fractions content. The real problem is it is not economical. These refineries have a heavy investment in metallurgy and bottoms conversion capability to allow them to process the less expensive heavy crudes.

Refineries configured for light sweet crude (cracking refineries) cannot process high concentrations of heavy sour. Even if they accept the inordinately high residual/asphalt production, they do not have the metallurgy to handle this material.

Thank you for explaining this.

 

[Brent in Az]

Phoenix gas prices rise to an average of $3.91.
Biden era prices.
They better figure out a way to lower them before the midterms, or......