Politics

[spike.t]

Fk me ....simple proof free speech no longer exists in uk at all.....I posted on here the one about Trump getting starmer picked up ....

 

[mdwest]

I guess we will see in November.

But recently polling and election results seem to suggest that the MAGA brand has lost some popularity. I would bet internal Republican polling is saying the same thing.

But perhaps he will cap credit card interest rates and military industrial CEO incomes and make some more friends amongst the socialists.

I think we’ve all learned to distrust the pollsters completely…

The polls told us Hillary would be president in 2016.. and we all believed it… they also told us that Trump would retain the white house in 2020… and we all believed them…

They largely got it right in 2024… but that was so obvious that Ray Charles could see it.. no one needed a poll to know what the outcome was going to be…

November is a long way away…

What will drive November will be the June-October economy…

The MSM will continue to wail about how tariffs don’t work… all Joe six pack cares about is gas is 50% of what it cost at the peak of the Biden administration…

Krazy Karen will continue to interfere with ICE.. and all middle America cares about is that their 401k’s are performing again…

There’s a reason that within literally hours of the woman being shot in the head by ICE that there were hundreds of memes condemning her, making fun of her, etc flooding the internet, going viral, etc..

Canadians might be concerned… but look at this thread… the overwhelming majority of Americans are somewhere between neutral and completely not giving a shit…

It’s not just conservatives… the middle, the centrists, and the independents have little to no concern… they all want the illegals gone… if an extreme leftist disagrees and acts in a way that causes her to lose her life, it gets about a millisecond of their attention, and they move on…

It will make zero difference in the election..

Which is about 25x more difference than Carney wanting to increase trade with China..

No one south of your border cares…

As long as our economy keeps chugging along, the typical US citizen could care less if the Canadian economy prospers or fails.. they think about Canadian success and Canadian opinions of the US as much as they think about bio nuclear physics and its impact on mosquitos in Indonesia (not at all)…

 

[LivingTheDream]

No. The poster suggested that what she did was attempted murder. That requires intent. That's why they call it murder.

I have done police shooting cases (on the civil side), and I don't think this officer would be convicted at trial or even found civilly liable. However I also think that had this lady survived I don't think she would have been convicted of attempted murder either.

I see what your saying but I think that also might be a stretch since that is pretty much every defense for attempted murder.

To you point, I am not sure you could get a conviction for attempted murder.

 

[Russ16]

“It’s the economy, stupid” - James Carville

The stock market is way up, inflation is way down, and there are promises of tax cuts that would greatly benefit the middle class.

Unemployment is low and interest rates are dropping…

As long as those things remain true… the majority of American citizens aren’t really going to give a shit about much else..

Extreme leftists can continue to act insane and turn themselves into meme bait, and the MSM can continue to rail against the administration and only create even greater distrust within the American public (if that’s even possible)… Europeans, Canadians, and other “developed” nations can continue to cry out against Trump..

None of it amounts to anything more than a fart in church.. a disruption that gets attention for about 5 seconds… and then the preacher keeps preaching…

Until the economy tanks, nobody cares…

The average American isn’t impacted by the stock market on a day to day basis.

Inflation is down which mean increases in prices has slowed.

But wages have not yet caught up with the previous increase in prices due to high inflation.

For the average American the economy doesn’t feel good yet. That’s the biggest risk for incumbents right now.

 

[KJE81]

Poof?!? Oh God please don't tell me you are joining a conspiracy mob.

I am just saying that by now they will need more then just a statement if they intend to calm the situation down.

What I mean is really only that I cant understand how they do damage control, simply wondering why they did not released that information days ago instead of now?

 

[Red Leg]

“It’s the economy, stupid” - James Carville

The stock market is way up, inflation is way down, and there are promises of tax cuts that would greatly benefit the middle class.

Unemployment is low and interest rates are dropping…

As long as those things remain true… the majority of American citizens aren’t really going to give a shit about much else..

Extreme leftists can continue to act insane and turn themselves into meme bait, and the MSM can continue to rail against the administration and only create even greater distrust within the American public (if that’s even possible)… Europeans, Canadians, and other “developed” nations can continue to cry out against Trump..

None of it amounts to anything more than a fart in church.. a disruption that gets attention for about 5 seconds… and then the preacher keeps preaching…

Until the economy tanks, nobody cares…

I think you would be correct most of the time since WWII. Obviously, events like Vietnam skewed such assumptions. I am concerned that Trump is also such an event. He lost the House during his first administration in spite of an excellent and quickly improving economy. Self-identified Republican numbers have stagnated (along with dems) in the high 20th percentile while seeing a corresponding rise in independents to the high 40th percentile. Those could break republican in a midterm, but that historically has not been the case. It also could lead to a low turn out election, and democrats seem far more motivated at the moment.

This is a consolidated look at generic polling to date since Jan 25. It shows a 4.5% generic lead for dems with each poll percentage varying quite a bit, but only one showing a republican lead way back in July and the difference between Last Jan/Feb and now indicating a rather dramatic collapse of republican support. A 4% democrat lead historically (since 1946) has led to a 10-15 House seat gain by the democrat party when in the minority. I believe the republican majority is currently six seats.

The most important takeaway for me is trend and momentum rather than the last set of numbers. Those are very bad and seem to continuing to accelerate. It will take a real sea change to reverse that trajectory. As we discussed before the election, armed ice agents dragging people out of cars, much less shooting them, is not a good place to start.

racetothewh.com/polls/genericballot

 

[mdwest]

For the average American the economy doesn’t feel good yet. That’s the biggest risk for incumbents right now.

That’s what CNN keeps telling everyone (and, of course they do… it’s to be expected… they’re also who told us Biden was in great shape up until the day the Ds dropped him, and now every time someone brings up their lie, they say “let’s not focus on the past.. we’re here to talk about today and the future”)…

That’s not at all what I hear and see on a daily basis though..

No one was talking about buying a new home 12 months ago…. I know several now considering a move…

I hear people talking about how not only is gas the cheapest it’s been since the last Trump administration, but also how the typical summer and holiday spikes in price didn’t really happen this year…

I hear and see people that couldnt find jobs 3 years ago (or didn’t want to work) are now working…

And ALL Americans are impacted by the stock market whether they are investors or not… corporate health is absolutely the backbone of the economy.. it drives unemployment, it drives retail pricing, it drives wages, and a host of other things that both the middle class and the labor class absolutely “feel”… the recession in the late 2000’s was driven by the stock market.. the Great Depression was driven by the stock market, etc… a bad market costs the consumer greatly… a good market makes their lives easier, whether they are trying to buy a car, find a job, or even take a vacation..

Speaking of vacations… the cost of travel in the US is up 20% since 2020 (Thanks Uncle Joe!).. and yet in 2025 the frequency of vacation travel was up almost 15% over 2024… that is a very strong indicator of people having confidence in the economy…

 

[Altitude sickness]

Unless something drastically changes, Republicans will lose a majority this fall.

 

[RLD]

I think we’ve all learned to distrust the pollsters completely…

The polls told us Hillary would be president in 2016.. and we all believed it… they also told us that Trump would retain the white house in 2020… and we all believed them…

They largely got it right in 2024… but that was so obvious that Ray Charles could see it.. no one needed a poll to know what the outcome was going to be…

November is a long way away…

What will drive November will be the June-October economy…

The MSM will continue to wail about how tariffs don’t work… all Joe six pack cares about is gas is 50% of what it cost at the peak of the Biden administration…

Krazy Karen will continue to interfere with ICE.. and all middle America cares about is that their 401k’s are performing again…

There’s a reason that within literally hours of the woman being shot in the head by ICE that there were hundreds of memes condemning her, making fun of her, etc flooding the internet, going viral, etc..

Canadians might be concerned… but look at this thread… the overwhelming majority of Americans are somewhere between neutral and completely not giving a shit…

It’s not just conservatives… the middle, the centrists, and the independents have little to no concern… they all want the illegals gone… if an extreme leftist disagrees and acts in a way that causes her to lose her life, it gets about a millisecond of their attention, and they move on…

It will make zero difference in the election..

Which is about 25x more difference than Carney wanting to increase trade with China..

No one south of your border cares…

As long as our economy keeps chugging along, the typical US citizen could care less if the Canadian economy prospers or fails.. they think about Canadian success and Canadian opinions of the US as much as they think about bio nuclear physics and its impact on mosquitos in Indonesia (not at all)…

Polls aside, like them or not, almost every actual election of any substance over the last six months has shown noteworthy swings away from the Republican party. Those are real votes and obviously somebody cares because they are voting differently.

Also, I don't think this site, or this thread, is a particularly broad representation of the U.S. electorate.

I am thinking the Republicans will lose control of at least one chamber in November, and it is becoming more obvious that Trump is a lame duck who seems more concerned with going after high profile "wins" to pad his legacy, rather than real long term reform that will change anything substantial about America. Then the Republicans need to find a replacement for Trump, and I am not sure who can hold the Trump coalition together as it really a cult of personality for a lot of people. Vance strikes me a light weight opportunist. I used to have hope for Rubio but his performance as Secretary of State has been less than inspiring.

The best thing that the Republicans have going for them going forward is how badly the Democrats seem to remain out of touch with the electorate, but that is pretty sad statement.

Neither party seems to offer much at the moment.

 

[mdwest]

Unless something drastically changes, Republicans will lose a majority this fall.

I don’t disagree… but I don’t think that comes from dissatisfaction from R’s…

It will come from D’s turning out in large numbers and R’s being lazy and not turning out as heavily..,

Much like no one really voted for Trump in 2016…. What they did was vote NO! against Hillary…

R’s tend to get lazy when things are going well.. and D’s get motivated when things aren’t going their way…

The other problem is Joe six pack sees Trump as “the government”… Trump isn’t running… so Joe Six Pack isn’t paying a lot of attention…

And Trump loves the attention… so while he will throw his endorsement onto candidates he likes, he’s not going to share the spotlight and allow candidates that really need some help shining step into it..

 

[Altitude sickness]

Besides the dozen other topics. This affordable narrative will harm the Republicans. Most people don’t understand how inflation works. And the Media keeps beating the drums for Democrats

Most prices are never going back where they were. Does anyone think that all the employees that demanded higher wages during and post Covid are going to accept lower wages now?

 

[mdwest]

Vance strikes me a light weight opportunist. I used to have hope for Rubio but his performance as Secretary of State has been less than inspiring.

The best thing that the Republicans have going for them going forward is how badly the Democrats seem to remain out of touch with the electorate, but that is pretty sad statement.

Spot on regarding D being out of touch… they continue to allow their lunatic fringe run the show… and the majority of the party I believe is tired of it..

Regarding Vance… I think most would agree at this point… he’s not ready…

I think most would disagree with you on Rubio though.. he is well liked within the party, and isn’t viewed as an extreme threat by the other side.. if the D’s run a lunatic (very likely to see Newsome and a few other very hard left people leading the ticket), Rubio could be the right guy to pull off the election… he’s got enough of the far right on board to be ok there, has the center right fully on board, and would likely pull a lot of independents as well as some center left D’s if his opponent is a far left candidate..

And… DeSantis is still sitting in the background.. he’s actually who I think has the best chance if the election were tomorrow… but 2028 might as well be 100 years away right now… a lot will certainly change between now and 2028

 

[mdwest]

It also could lead to a low turn out election, and democrats seem far more motivated at the moment.

That’s my top concern… low turnout out…

R’s tend to lose focus and motivation as long as they’re comfortable or confident…

You won’t catch them pulling the lever for a D… they just won’t bother going to the polls at all…

I’m hopeful the right has learned its lesson in the past… but I have serious doubts..

 

[RLD]

Spot on regarding D being out of touch… they continue to allow their lunatic fringe run the show… and the majority of the party I believe is tired of it..

Regarding Vance… I think most would agree at this point… he’s not ready…

I think most would disagree with you on Rubio though.. he is well liked within the party, and isn’t viewed as an extreme threat by the other side.. if the D’s run a lunatic (very likely to see Newsome and a few other very hard left people leading the ticket), Rubio could be the right guy to pull off the election… he’s got enough of the far right on board to be ok there, has the center right fully on board, and would likely pull a lot of independents as well as some center left D’s if his opponent is a far left candidate..

And… DeSantis is still sitting in the background.. he’s actually who I think has the best chance if the election were tomorrow… but 2028 might as well be 100 years away right now… a lot will certainly change between now and 2028

You know DeSantis totally slipped my mind. I think seeing him run against Rubio and Vance would be fascinating.

I wonder if he still has presidential ambitions.

 

[KJE81]

You know DeSantis totally slipped my mind. I think seeing him run against Rubio and Vance would be fascinating.

I wonder if he still has presidential ambitions.

Just from watching them in interviews and reading tweets and the like I think Rubio seems to be a classic republican, conservative rather then MAGA fanatic, and far more statesmanlike then Trump.

Vance seems more like a Trump sidekick or mouth piece. I guess DeSantis is more like Rubio in that regard but have not seen so much of him, at least not recently.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

"but look at this thread… the overwhelming majority of Americans are somewhere between neutral and completely not giving a shit…"

I think you're largely right about the economy and everything else being a fart in church. But with all due respect, I do not believe that the fine folks on this thread represent the overwhelming majority of Americans. We are, IMHO and for a couple of reasons, very much a niche segment of society.

 

[sgt_zim]

At the very least I am very impressed by how fast the plastic surgeon was able to fix it

Regardless I wonder why ICE or DHS did not shared the information about this internal bleeding earlier to put a lid on speculation instead of waiting until it became much more protesting.

It might very well be true but holding on the information for this long makes it so it looks a little like it was "invented" as a last ditch effort to change the story line.

For goodness' sake, it was a small wound and would have been a simple matter to fix, didn't likely take more than 15 or 20 minutes with probably only local anesthetic. The best time to do the graft would be while the wound is still fresh. Would you expect them to wait until the GSW had healed over, with all its scar tissue having to be dealt with in a future surgery? Trump's just lucky he hasn't developed a keloid scar, common when ear cartilage is damaged.

They can do total knee replacements now in about 45 - 50 minutes, hip replacements in an hour. How difficult would it be to sew on a tiny flap of skin for a hole created by a caliber .224 bullet?

As far as the ICE agent...they disclosed it in 7 days, and that just wasn't fast enough for you to not jump to a conspiracy or something?

If you're THIS concerned over 7 days, surely you must have been apoplectic over the disclosure of Biden's advanced prostate cancer after he left office. Or, I'm betting it was just a big "ho-hum."

 

[JimP]

That’s my top concern… low turnout out…

R’s tend to lose focus and motivation as long as they’re comfortable or confident…

You won’t catch them pulling the lever for a D… they just won’t bother going to the polls at all…

I’m hopeful the right has learned its lesson in the past… but I have serious doubts..

If you want to see a state where the Republicans have lost almost everything just look at Colorado.

The candidates that they put up to run for office are next to complete loons as I have seen and then they wonder why they can't win a election.

 

[mdwest]

Just from watching them in interviews and reading tweets and the like I think Rubio seems to be a classic republican, conservative rather then MAGA fanatic, and far more statesmanlike then Trump.

Vance seems more like a Trump sidekick or mouth piece. I guess DeSantis is more like Rubio in that regard but have not seen so much of him, at least not recently.

Those are pretty good and reasonably accurate assessments..

Rubio is a little further right than center right, but he isnt a super far right guy.. DeSantis is a little further right than Rubio.. Vance would be the furthest right of the three.. but Vance, as you note, is viewed by many (other than the very far right) as something of Trumps lap dog.. He doesnt appear to have his own voice...

I could live with any of them in the POTUS seat if the option on the other side was Harris, Newsome, AOC, Kelly, Buttigieg, Pritzker, or Shapiro (the people that seem most likely to run and have any shot at all of winning the primaries)... But at the moment if only given the choice of DeSantis, Rubio, or Vance, I'd most likely choose DeSantis..

That said, I do think a R primary with those three in it would be interesting.. I think all of them are gentlemanly enough not to participate in outright mud slinging, name calling, etc. of each other like we have seen other recent R primaries.. and while each of them lean a little more or less R than the others, their public positions on most of the key issues are the same.. I'd be curious to see how they might try to present themselves as a different and better option than their opponents..

My guess (today.. this might change tomorrow).. is Trump will throw his endorsement on Rubio.. and Rubio would find someone other than Vance or DeSantis to be is running mate if he is given the nod by the American people. He's not going to want Vance to remain in office as VP, and the party isnt going to want both the POTUS and VPOTUS candidate to be from the same state.. If Rubio gets the nod (or DeSantis for that matter), the R party is going to try to find a quality VPOTUS candidate either in a key swing state to try to leverage them for the win in that state, or find a VPOTUS candidate that has such rampant popularity that they help swing all of the swing states their direction..

Thats why Waltz was such a disaster choice for Harris.. he is from a state that was already definitively going to go blue (no help there).. and he lacked the national notoriety and popularity to help her anywhere else.. not to mention he is so far left that he did nothing to help Harris rally the center.. he just kept the far left (that was already voting for her anyway) appeased..

Picking a VP really isnt about picking the best guy for the job or even the best guy to be the next POTUS.. its about helping the current candidate win the election at hand and not a whole lot more..

 

[wesheltonj]

I suspect the R ticket will be Vance/Rubio. There's a reason Vance seems like a lap dog - that's what the boss wants.