Politics

LOL..!
Contrary to what you keep insinuating, I am not an isolationist, and certainly not against supporting an ally, or ensuring our national security. What I am against is constantly being told to shut up, quit asking questions, and trust the so-called "experts" which, of course, will never happen...

In regard to what you think I need to hear, that's pretty simple... I'd like to hear a plan... A plan with a timeline, strategic goals, and detailed fiscal accountability for the American taxpayer who is being suffocated by a national debt of nearly 34 trillion $ and counting...;)

As Clauzewitz noted, "war is the continuation of politics by other means." In German the term "Politik" carries the meaning of both domestic and international interaction. Like other forms of politics it is impossible to apply a timeline. The length of a war is determined by how long it takes to achieve objectives, to thwart enemy objectives, and the political will of a government and/or its people to pursue those objectives - not a clock or a calendar. I hope you actually understand that, when you demand a timeline.

The impatience of the West, is a character flaw which Putin is desperately trying to exploit. He and his minions have for about three months now begun talking about a protracted war - one that will last "indefinitely." It is a ploy which is clearly working with a segment of the American population and their representatives; a remarkable achievement for a war the US is not actually fighting. He is also determined to maintain the illusion of commitment at least through the election in the hopes of a Trump victory. I am not sure what that says exactly, except I feel a sense of real disgust.

I will simply again say, that in my best military judgement, an assessment mirrored by most of my peers, the Russian offensive is unsustainable and is likely to collapse militarily and/or through a collapse of domestic support. Unlike the US who has suffered zero casualties in this conflict, Russia is suffering huge losses - most of which the Kremlin is trying very hard to hide. Putin is gambling everything on our lack of commitment and patience on the part of the West before that happens.

Making this conflict sound like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq is a red herring. No Americans are dying. No Americans are fighting. What we have provided in aid is a pittance compared to what we spent on those conflicts or relative to our annual budget or our debt - a remarkably cheap bill against such a critical national interest.

It is particularly frustrating to me that of all the hundreds of billions we have tolerated this administration wasting, populist republicans have chosen Ukraine as the focus of their ire. Putin must marvel daily that he has such allies.
 
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And here we go again.


Its a shame what Venezuela has allowed itself to become..

I made a couple of trips to both Caracas and to Maracaibo and the surrounding Zulia state in Venezuela (border of Colombia) back in the mid 90's.. absolutely beautiful country, that was thriving (oil rich)..

Chavez managed to cripple the country in just a few years.. and Maduro has made it worse.. Now 90% of the population lives in poverty (even though they still have huge oil reserves and plenty of other natural resources, a fairly good advanced education/university system, etc).. and 68% are considered to be in extreme poverty.. (World Bank definition = living on less than $1.90 per day)...

In the early 70's Venezuela became the wealthiest country in South America and was among the 20 richest countries in the entire world (well ahead of many European countries).. and remained in that position for about 20 years until corruption got out of control.. by 1999 the country was in -5% growth and had been for the previous few years.. Chavez stepped in claiming socialism was the solution.. things only got worse..

If anyone thinks corruption, bad leadership, and socialist policies cant collapse a country in less than a decade.. all you need to do is look to Venezuela as an example.. What an enormous shit hole they have allowed their country to become (when it was very recently a beautiful shining star of how things could have been for a very, very long time.. (lots of oil and mineral rich soil, etc..etc..))....
 
As Clauzewitz noted, "war is the continuation of politics by other means." In German the term "Politik" carries the meaning of both domestic and international interaction. Like other forms of politics it is impossible to apply a timeline. The length of a war is determined by how long it takes to achieve objectives, to thwart enemy objectives, and the political will of a government and/or its people to pursue those objectives - not a clock or a calendar. I hope you actually understand that, when you demand a timeline.

The impatience of the West, is a character flaw which Putin is desperately trying to exploit. He and his minions have for about three months now begun talking about a protracted war - one that will last "indefinitely." It is a ploy which is clearly working with a segment of the American population and their representatives; a remarkable achievement for a war the US is not actually fighting. He is also determined to maintain the illusion of commitment at least through the election in the hopes of a Trump victory. I am not sure what that says exactly, except I feel a sense of real disgust.

I will simply again say, that in my best military judgement, an assessment mirrored by most of my peers, the Russian offensive is unsustainable and is likely to collapse militarily and/or through a collapse of domestic support. Unlike the US who has suffered zero casualties in this conflict, Russia is suffering huge losses - most of which the Kremlin is trying very hard to hide. Putin is gambling everything on our lack of commitment and patience on the part of the West before that happens.

Making this conflict sound like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq is a red herring. No Americans are dying. No Americans are fighting. What we have provided in aid is a pittance compared to what we spent on those conflicts or relative to our annual budget or our debt - a remarkably cheap bill against such a critical national interest.

It is particularly frustrating to me that of all the hundreds of billions we have tolerated this administration wasting, populist republicans have chosen Ukraine as the focus of their ire. Putin must marvel daily that he has such allies.
Well Joe, you hate Trump, I guess you can always vote for Joe!
1702919035293.png
:ROFLMAO:(y)
 
I didn't say Jack Keane was a Neo-Con, I said ISW is a biased neo-con source.

I say this because I am familiar with their work, along with AEI (rest assured I do actually read). I agree with you that people should read what the ISW puts out, as well as anything from the Kagan's and everyone over there. They should also be familiar with Kristol's work at PNAC, the Kagan's work with project for a new American Century, and any other of the many think tanks that are out there.

What is also important is to look at what these institutions said was going to happen/ should happen, and what actually ended up happening. They should also read opposing domestic opinions and analysis. Disagreeing with Bill Kristol, Frederick and Robert Kagan, and Victoria Nuland doesn't make you an uneducated person. Reading their work obviously helps people make more informed opinions about whether or not they support the positions of these institutions and the people leading them. These institutions have the ears of decision makers in Washington, so again, I do agree that people should pay attention to what they say. That being said, what comes from these institutions and these people isn't the gospel just because they say it is

Some examples...

In my opinion, Frederick Kagan's "We're not the Soviets in Afghanistan" from August of 2009 is a perfect example of someone from that circle getting it wrong. Specifically the last paragraph....

"there is absolutely no basis for assessing that an increased ISAF/US military presence along the lines being considered will result in some kind of "tipping point" at which local Afghans turn against us because they see us as a Soviet-style occupation force." -Frederick Kagan, 2009

He was wrong here. Compare coalition casualties before the 2009 surge, and after the 2009 surge, up until the initial troop drawdown in 2014, after which conventional ISAF troops were far less engaged in kinetic operations anyway, and ANA continued to take heavy losses. You could also look at the massive uptick in Green on Blue attacks after 2009.

In all fairness, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan could have potentially been less shocking to most people had there been truthful reporting of the status of ANA, ANP, and ALP throughout the country, (especially the ANP) and the complete ineptitude of governance from the Provincial level down. Instead, what we got was constant lying in SITREPs and storyboards (especially from field grades and SOF TLs) about so many successes that realistically weren't happening. Too many people were afraid to be looked at as if they failed their mission, when in reality the mission creep of that conflict was beyond the pale of what should have been expected. So, in defense of the neo-cons (dammit) they were probably not getting the best information from the battlespace.

Also in my opinion, ISW's model for Syria which led to Timber Sycamore and the US led attempt to overthrow Assad is another example of that circle getting it wrong. The attempt at regime change in Syria has been a disaster, not only on a humanitarian level, but also in massively contributing to the migrant crisis in Europe, as well as in solidifying the relationship between Russia and Syria. I don't agree with their position that the overthrow of Assad needed to happen, even though they said it did.


ISW (to include Frederick Kagan) conducted this exercise IRT to Syria .....

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Syria Wargame Readout 812.pdf

Where they were very wrong about how much support and backing Assad would have from Russia....

"Whereas Turkey loomed large in the simulation, Russia was relegated to the bleachers. (The simulation did not have a Russian team, which some participants felt was a notable gap). Participants appeared to have assumed that Russia was effectively neutral (or neutralized), and would not attempt to deter Western intervention through pre-positioning military forces or undertaking any repeat of the Pristina excursion. Nor would Russia take any action to help remove Asad. All agreed, as has occurred, that Russia would block any UN Security Council resolution of significance."



This latest report from ISW and Frederick Kagan regarding potential outcomes of the Russia/Ukraine conflict may be accurate (or it may not be). My only point was that ISW and their staff DO have a hawkish neo-con bias, and they can get things very wrong (like any other organization).
Regarding Ukraine and Afghanistan, Western leadership and the media have drastically overlooked and ignored the severe shortfalls of the Western-allied Afghans and Ukrainians.

Corruption was rampant in Afghanistan, a country largely run by drug dealers and other criminals. Drug abuse was rampant in the ANA. The Afghan army and government, despite massive Western support, collapsed even before the last American troops left the country. Ineptness led to this collapse. Yet much of the Western leadership and mainstream media claimed that “We were winning the hearts and minds of the Afghanis” and that so many Afghanis voted for the first time in their lives. Meanwhile, they ignored the endemic corruption and ineptness plaguing the West’s Afghani allies.

Equally noteworthy is that the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. Following the collapse of the USSR, Boris Yeltsin cut all funding to Afghanistan’s socialist government, and the Taliban took power in 1996. This government kept fighting for several years after Soviet funding stopped. However, socialism had little popular support in Afghanistan. The Afghan national government could not even last a week following the departure of American troops, indicating a lack of support for democracy in Afghanistan despite Western claims to the contrary.

Regarding the Ukrainian war, much discussion has concerned the high number of Russian casualties, but little has addressed Ukrainian casualties. Some Western figures and sources have stated that Russia suffered 300,000+ casualties compared to Ukraine’s 200,000, or two Ukrainian casualties for every three Russian casualties. Ukraine’s population is three to four times smaller than Russia’s, and Ukraine’s economy is ten times smaller than Russia’s. Since its independence, Ukraine has remained one of the poorest countries in Eastern Europe. This brings me to my next point: corruption.

Western media and leadership often note the extent of Russian corruption. Certainly, Russia is corrupt. However, they rarely mention the high level of corruption in Ukraine. They are more focused on praising Zelensky for his reforms, as they did with the Afghan government. I would argue that corruption in Ukraine is at least as bad as it is in Russia. Ukraine conveniently enacts corruption reforms just before it obtains significant amounts of Western aid.

This question of corruption brings me to the fact that Ukraine has no significant domestic weapon production capabilities. The country is almost solely reliant on Western aid for its military equipment and replenishment of its ammo stocks. Ukraine has stated that it wishes to initiate domestic weapons production. Rampant corruption, a severe labour shortage, and their attempt to establish weapons production amid a war indicate that this endeavor will be unsuccessful.

Videos of forced conscription imply that the Ukrainian army faces a labour shortage. Some articles in the mainstream media, such as one by Simon Shuster, have discussed this labour shortage. However, other authors have dismissed it as Russian misinformation and propaganda.

Another common talking point is that the Russian army is poorly trained. While true, much of the Ukrainian army is just as poorly trained. However, the Ukrainian army’s lack of training is rarely discussed.

One final point concerns weapons systems. The use of FPV drones has defined this war. An FPV drone can hold anti-personnel, anti-armour, and recon roles. In many ways, drone operators serve the roles of snipers, anti-tank or anti-armour gunners, and recon personnel. Drones allowed the Ukrainians to devastate Russian armour at the beginning of the war. Moreover, in the war’s early stages, Ukraine had a significant advantage over Russia in FPV drone capabilities and tactics. The Russians have since adapted, and this gap has considerably narrowed. I would argue that the tide, in terms of FPV drone usage, is shifting in Russia’s favor. Russia now has, I believe, six to seven times more drones than Ukraine does. FPV drones are essentially commercial drones. They are inexpensive and easy to mass produce and use. However, one can destroy or severely damage a multimillion-dollar tank. Electronic warfare will be the defining weapon system of this conflict. The side that can jam and ground the other side’s drones will have a significant advantage.
 
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Double post within a post, you should proof read before posting.
 
As Clauzewitz noted, "war is the continuation of politics by other means." ...
"On War" has been one of my favorite treatises to read.
The impatience of the West, is a character flaw which Putin is desperately trying to exploit. ...
Hamas is pursuing the same strategy and has been successful so far. I expect Biden administration to cave in soon.
It is particularly frustrating to me that of all the hundreds of billions we have tolerated this administration wasting, populist republicans have chosen Ukraine as the focus of their ire. Putin must marvel daily that he has such allies.
It is an easier target for them and their supporters. The rest of the wasteful spending requires a bit of reading, comprehension and thought. Heck, look at the meme posted above, Hunter Biden left Burisma in 2019, but Bidens and Ukraine are an easy target for the isolationists, years later.

Don't get me wrong. Hunter Biden's Burisma job was unethical at best, but it has nothing to do with the current Ukraine aid except guilt by past associations between Hunter Biden and Burisma.
 
“ I would argue that corruption in Ukraine is at least as bad as it is in Russia. Ukraine conveniently enacts corruption reforms just before it obtains significant amounts of Western aid.”

Sestoppleman, I wish the Biden’s were the only politician or government employees that were laundering money. And or involved in shady Ukrainian deals.

Just as we will never learn 100% of the Wuhan lab leak background. (Gain of function research on militarized viruses). Because our fingerprints are on it.

Biden will not be punished for his corruption. Because too many in DC have their hands in the same corrupt cookie jar. Republicans, Democrats, and other life long government employees that are not elected.

Biden is a Piker, and is an embarrassment to the seasoned more sophisticated thieves.
 
The war against Hamas will only be won in the tunnels, it is obvious. Either the Israelis send troops down there and accept some high casualties, or they send down an army of autonomous robots, they exist. Yes, hotages will die too, but remember that unless Hamas is destroyed there will be repeats of October 7th as they promised. There is no altenative. But the days roll by…
 
I will add that they have moved on from Ukraine.

This list of top money laundering nations changes daily. But here is one from a liberal source. So as not to appear completely biased.
According to the global ranking in 2021, Haiti was No. 1, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, Mozambique and the Cayman Islands. Ukraine was 55th, landing between Russia (44th) and the United States (83rd).
 
“ I would argue that corruption in Ukraine is at least as bad as it is in Russia. Ukraine conveniently enacts corruption reforms just before it obtains significant amounts of Western aid.”

Sestoppleman, I wish the Biden’s were the only politician or government employees that were laundering money. And or involved in shady Ukrainian deals.

Just as we will never learn 100% of the Wuhan lab leak background. (Gain of function research on militarized viruses). Because our fingerprints are on it.

Biden will not be punished for his corruption. Because too many in DC have their hands in the same corrupt cookie jar. Republicans, Democrats, and other life long government employees that are not elected.

Biden is a Piker, and is an embarrassment to the seasoned more sophisticated thieves.
I don't think the Covid leak was deliberate. There is significant international co-operation on biological weapons control. The reason for this is that biological weapons are indiscriminate and they affect everyone equally. Once unleashed, regardless of where in the world, they are extremely difficult to control. The only time it is useful to use a biological weapon is if your population has a high degree of immunity to that pathogen/virus.

I can totally see it being an accidental leak. Accidents can happen anywhere- even at high security labs...
 
As Clauzewitz noted, "war is the continuation of politics by other means." In German the term "Politik" carries the meaning of both domestic and international interaction. Like other forms of politics it is impossible to apply a timeline. The length of a war is determined by how long it takes to achieve objectives, to thwart enemy objectives, and the political will of a government and/or its people to pursue those objectives - not a clock or a calendar. I hope you actually understand that, when you demand a timeline.

The impatience of the West, is a character flaw which Putin is desperately trying to exploit. He and his minions have for about three months now begun talking about a protracted war - one that will last "indefinitely." It is a ploy which is clearly working with a segment of the American population and their representatives; a remarkable achievement for a war the US is not actually fighting. He is also determined to maintain the illusion of commitment at least through the election in the hopes of a Trump victory. I am not sure what that says exactly, except I feel a sense of real disgust.

I will simply again say, that in my best military judgement, an assessment mirrored by most of my peers, the Russian offensive is unsustainable and is likely to collapse militarily and/or through a collapse of domestic support. Unlike the US who has suffered zero casualties in this conflict, Russia is suffering huge losses - most of which the Kremlin is trying very hard to hide. Putin is gambling everything on our lack of commitment and patience on the part of the West before that happens.

Making this conflict sound like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq is a red herring. No Americans are dying. No Americans are fighting. What we have provided in aid is a pittance compared to what we spent on those conflicts or relative to our annual budget or our debt - a remarkably cheap bill against such a critical national interest.

It is particularly frustrating to me that of all the hundreds of billions we have tolerated this administration wasting, populist republicans have chosen Ukraine as the focus of their ire. Putin must marvel daily that he has such allies.

100% Joe...Putin must have been confident that he could overrun Ukraine within 1-2 weeks initially and look at the quagmire he is in now..Ukraine fighting for survival and hinder russian imperial aggression with massive western aid.

Finland and shortly Sweden joining NATO...within a few years Scandinavia will have about 155-160 F-35 fighter jets plus Swedens 62 JAS 39 Gripen fighters and the synergy effects of sea-air and land between these 4 nations.. I guess Putin did not see that coming..

I hope that the european NATO members will wake up and smell the coffee to increase defence spending..Germany seem to wake up, Poland massively increase defence budget..yes I will give Trump that...its high time to contribute much more to NATO here..
 
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As Clauzewitz noted, "war is the continuation of politics by other means." In German the term "Politik" carries the meaning of both domestic and international interaction. Like other forms of politics it is impossible to apply a timeline. The length of a war is determined by how long it takes to achieve objectives, to thwart enemy objectives, and the political will of a government and/or its people to pursue those objectives - not a clock or a calendar. I hope you actually understand that, when you demand a timeline.

I understand this profoundly, and ironically, by mentioning the need to provide objectives to measure success, you are making my point for me... As far as I can see, nobody who is actually making the decisions has made any semblance of a list of objectives to measure progress. Your mentor, Gen. Keane is the only one I am aware of that has actually suggested any sort of plan with definitive objectives. Yet, unfortunately, he is not the one making the decisions, and anyone who does have the power surely doesn't seem to be paying attention to his advice...

Making this conflict sound like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq is a red herring. No Americans are dying. No Americans are fighting.

The comparisons are a red herring today... Tomorrow is not guaranteed... I believe that our support for South Vietnam also started out as just money, weapons, and advisors did it not? I also recall that Gen. Westmorland had a very comprehensive plan for victory if I am not mistaken?

Furthermore, I'm not suggesting that the U. S's involvement in Vietnam, or Afghanistan wasn't necessary. What is unfortunate, however, is that the common denominator of all of these foreign conflicts is the lack of foresight and some really bad decisions with particular regard to rules of engagement.

You must also admit that Afghanistan was much different that Ukraine... A direct, verifiable case was made that Afghanistan was a breeding ground for terrorists who attacked us... Acquiring public unconditional support for a war is not very hard to achieve when the homeland has been attacked directly... I also think that we could have achieved a much more measurable argument for success in Afghanistan along with a drastic reduction in U.S casualties if the rules of engagement were not constantly being changed particularly by the Obama Administration. We were there for so long because we were never fully committed to eradicate the enemy at all costs. Sadly, in the West, we are still collectively stupid enough to believe that it is actually possible to negotiate peace with a people who want to see us eradicated... At least Israel seems to get it...

I think even we might agree that Ukraine might look very differently today if they were armed with the proper amount of self-defense weaponry pre-invasion... I also believe that the biggest deterrence we could have ever provided against Russian aggression in Europe would have been a second term for Trump... But I guess we will never know for sure because those ships have sailed haven't they? Furthermore, you and I both know that no matter how much more military aid we send, this current Administration is not going to provide the kind of weapons that could have already turned the tide against Russia. Neither will any of the other "coalition" nations aiding Ukraine, so what are we even talking about?
 
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I don't think the Covid leak was deliberate. There is significant international co-operation on biological weapons control. The reason for this is that biological weapons are indiscriminate and they affect everyone equally. Once unleashed, regardless of where in the world, they are extremely difficult to control. The only time it is useful to use a biological weapon is if your population has a high degree of immunity to that pathogen/virus.

I can totally see it being an accidental leak. Accidents can happen anywhere- even at high security labs...
I agree. Despite China's denials and cover up of the leak, there's no evidence the Wuhan Covid leak was deliberate. The Worldwide economic destruction resulting from the leak WILL NOT be lost however, on those state and terrorist actors who want to unleash an intentional biological attack against their enemies to attain their goals.
 
I understand this profoundly, and ironically, by mentioning the need to provide objectives to measure success, you are making my point for me... As far as I can see, nobody who is actually making the decisions has made any semblance of a list of objectives to measure progress. Your mentor, Gen. Keane is the only one I am aware of that has actually suggested any sort of plan with definitive objectives. Yet, unfortunately, he is not the one making the decisions, and anyone who does have the power surely doesn't seem to be paying attention to his advice...



The comparisons are a red herring today... Tomorrow is not guaranteed... I believe that our support for South Vietnam also started out as just money, weapons, and advisors did it not? I also recall that Gen. Westmorland had a very comprehensive plan for victory if I am not mistaken?

Furthermore, I'm not suggesting that the U. S's involvement in Vietnam, or Afghanistan wasn't necessary. What is unfortunate, however, is that the common denominator of all of these foreign conflicts which is the lack of foresight and some really bad decisions with particular regard to rules of engagement.

You must also admit that Afghanistan was much different that Ukraine... A direct, verifiable case was made that Afghanistan was a breeding ground for terrorists who attacked us... Acquiring public unconditional support for a war is not very hard to achieve when the homeland has been attacked directly... I also think that we could have achieved a much more measurable argument for success in Afghanistan along with a drastic reduction in U.S casualties if the rules of engagement were not constantly being changed particularly by the Obama Administration. We were there for so long because we were never fully committed to eradicate the enemy at all costs. Sadly, in the West, we are still collectively stupid enough to believe that it is actually possible to negotiate peace with a people who want to see us eradicated... At least Israel seems to get it...

I think even we might agree that Ukraine might look very differently today if they were armed with the proper amount of self-defense weaponry pre-invasion... I also believe that the biggest deterrence we could have ever provided against Russian aggression in Europe would have been a second term for Trump... But I guess we will never know for sure because those ships have sailed haven't they? Furthermore, you and I both know that no matter how much more military aid we send, this current Administration is not going to provide the kind of weapons that could have already turned the tide against Russia. Neither will any of the other "coalition" nations aiding Ukraine, so what are we even talking about?
You have a remarkable ability to argue points that I did not make. I spoke to the issue of timeline.

"You must admit Afghanistan was very different then Ukraine." Well duh. Who said it wasn't. I would humbly suggest that was the point I was trying to get across to you. Vietnam. Afghanistan, and Iraq are red herrings in comparison to Ukraine.

The closest parallel that I can offer you to supplying Ukraine is our support of Israel. We have given Israel enormous amounts of resources in its long existential struggle against the Arab and Iranian regimes and organizations which hope to extinguish its existence. The parallels are particularly true during the first two decades of Israel's existence when they had little to no domestic defense industry. Do you sit up nights convinced we are about to commit the 1st ID or 82d Airborne into the Negev? Have you ever asked for a clear timeline for that support? Have you ever asked what our objectives are with respect to Israel? I suspect not.

I have said dozens of times in this endless thread that the Biden administration has been far too timid in what it has provided Ukraine. Obama's inaction in '14 is unforgivable and led directly to Feb '22.

We could and should have made the decision to have sent 300 M1 tanks and 800 M2 IFVs six-months into this conflict (many more than that are moldering in storage). Instead we gave them 30 and 80 respectively nearly 18 months into the fight. We gave them a dozen HIMARS launchers when a 100 were available. The same goes for other artillery systems. And of course the F-16 issue would be laughable were it not so sad.

What my party ought to be doing is applying pressure to do more - not less. But that would take imagination, and a bit of understanding that national interests supersede domestic politics. That is a concept clearly beyond the ability of the Chip Roy, Matt Gaetz, and yes Donald Trump wing of my party.

That said, doing something is far more important than doing nothing, and Ukraine has proven increasingly effective in exploiting the support they have received. Russia has thrown everything they have at Ukraine and to date has failed miserably. It would be a generational sin to turn our backs on them now.
 
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One of these potential canary in the coal mine moments? The questions by the host would have been unthinkable a couple of months ago. Sergei Alexandrovich Markov is a well known Russian political scientist and has a reputation of strongly supporting Putin.

 
Wow, perhaps Russian public opinion is beginning to turn. Interesting that he claims the right to invade Ukraine but not the manner in which it was executed. Read between the lines, a Ukrainian victory without the total defeat of Russia simply sets the stage for a future war, unless Ukraine is able
to ensure that this war is impossible for Russia to win (NATO membership). The Russian mindset is difficult for the West to grasp.
 

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