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mdwest

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Biden may well pull off a win...

But if Nate Silver really believes thats how things are going to shake out in a couple of weeks... I'd love to find his dealer... he's obviously been hooked up with some seriously good weed....
 

Red Leg

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Nate Silver's presidential national election map as of October 16.

I am posting this so we can see how well it ages. ;)

View attachment 372245
If he is right, they will have a five to seven vote majority in the senate as well. Goodbye to almost everything.
 

Brent in Az

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I've scheduled a day off on November 4th.

Just in case!
 

Von Gruff

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Dont think of moving to NZ as we just had the leftist (labour) govt returned in our elections at the weekend. They played havoc with our gun laws and pander to the chinese and that troublesome third world religion that causes havoc whereever it goes. Praying for you all that POTUS Trump wins in a landslide so there are better outcomes for you guys and consequently for the world.
 

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Nate Silver's presidential national election map as of October 16.

I am posting this so we can see how well it ages. ;)

View attachment 372245

The metrics I have seen in no way support this map. I don't look at polling much, but I don't think honest polling justifies this map either. IMO, a narrative is being created that Biden will be the winner. When that doesn't happen, then Russia interfered to help Trump win, and Trump stole the election.
 

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If he is right, they will have a five to seven vote majority in the senate as well. Goodbye to almost everything.

If this map really happened, then I would agree with you.

Gardner and Collins could loose and possibly another Republican or two. Tubberville will win and James has a decent chance. If that happens then Republicans should hold the senate.
 

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Well here is the future after what all.the pathetic left wing bunch of imbecilic politicians have done....

IMG-20201018-WA0008.jpg
 

WAB

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If this map really happened, then I would agree with you.

Gardner and Collins could loose and possibly another Republican or two. Tubberville will win and James has a decent chance. If that happens then Republicans should hold the senate.

Tuberville looks like a lock down here in Bama. Roy Moore is the only reason Doug Jones got in last time. We need to vote Jones not just out of the senate, but right out of our state!
 

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Dont think of moving to NZ as we just had the leftist (labour) govt returned in our elections at the weekend. They played havoc with our gun laws and pander to the chinese and that troublesome third world religion that causes havoc whereever it goes. Praying for you all that POTUS Trump wins in a landslide so there are better outcomes for you guys and consequently for the world.
It extremely hard as a foreigner to buy real estate in New Zealand...I have been researching my contingency plan in case everything goes to shit.
 

WAB

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Look at Uruguay. Excellent legal and banking systems, low cost of living, good hunting traditions.
 

Hogpatrol

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I'm hedging my bets with a 10 pack of 80% lowers.
e-laugh.gif
 

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Just as a reminder, this is what the Real Clear Politics map looked like four years ago today.

Don't trust the polls. As more information regarding Bidengate comes out, look for the polls to become more realistic.

We still haven't gotten to the Clintongate and Obamagate yet. ;)

1603077814400.png
 
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WAB

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I’m counting on you to be right on this!
 

Kevin Peacocke

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From afar watching daily - There is no way Trump will lose, likely to be a majority, but not a landslide. The house will likely be red, and the senate a slim majority of one or two. I wish the marginals would take more note of Biden's failures, but they seem to be disinterested.
 

Wheels

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I’m counting on you to be right on this!

Oh no. :oops:

When you dig down into the details, there are multiple things that don't jive with the polls. ie: In most swing states, there are more registered democrats than republicans. The margin has shrunk in most of those states since 2016. These are states that Trump won in 2016, yet the polls are giving those states to Biden. (I will try to remember to post examples as I come across them) This is just one example. I truly think many of the polls are as corrupt as the media. They are building the narrative that Trump cheated and Russia helped.

Trump has had the goods on Biden, Clinton and Obama since 2017. He will release whatever he needs between now and the election to assure victory, then let Barr deal with the prosecutions.

In 2016 I was busy with life and didn't have time to delve into the details. I was also not a Trump fan and didn't decide to vote for him over Johnson until the last week. I was as surprised as most on election night. This year I have more time to dig into the details. I can certainly be wrong but feel pretty good at the moment.

PS: Regarding extended deadliness to count votes, 6 of 7 circuit courts have sided with the law and not allowed extensions. The democrats were relying on having a set number, in close races to make up like the seven house races they flipped in Orange County after election day, 2018.
 

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In 2016, these were the polls right up until the bitter end. Like we used to say about most bullshit, the polls and a buck and a quarter will get you a cup a joe at the quickie mart.



Polling Data​

PollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)Spread
Final Results------48.246.13.31.1Clinton +2.1
RCP Average11/2 - 11/7----45.542.24.71.9Clinton +3.3
Bloomberg11/4 - 11/6799 LV3.5444142Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP Tracking11/4 - 11/71026 LV3.1434582Trump +2
Economist/YouGov11/4 - 11/73677 LV--454152Clinton +4
ABC/Wash Post Tracking11/3 - 11/62220 LV2.5474341Clinton +4
FOX News11/3 - 11/61295 LV2.5484432Clinton +4
Monmouth11/3 - 11/6748 LV3.6504441Clinton +6
Gravis11/3 - 11/616639 RV1.0474332Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl11/3 - 11/51282 LV2.7444062Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos11/2 - 11/62196 LV2.3423963Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports11/2 - 11/61500 LV2.5454342Clinton +2
CBS News11/2 - 11/61426 LV3.0454152Clinton +4
All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Polling Data
 

Wheels

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Oh no. :oops:

When you dig down into the details, there are multiple things that don't jive with the polls. ie: In most swing states, there are more registered democrats than republicans. The margin has shrunk in most of those states since 2016. These are states that Trump won in 2016, yet the polls are giving those states to Biden. (I will try to remember to post examples as I come across them) This is just one example. I truly think many of the polls are as corrupt as the media. They are building the narrative that Trump cheated and Russia helped.

Trump has had the goods on Biden, Clinton and Obama since 2017. He will release whatever he needs between now and the election to assure victory, then let Barr deal with the prosecutions.

In 2016 I was busy with life and didn't have time to delve into the details. I was also not a Trump fan and didn't decide to vote for him over Johnson until the last week. I was as surprised as most on election night. This year I have more time to dig into the details. I can certainly be wrong but feel pretty good at the moment.

PS: Regarding extended deadliness to count votes, 6 of 7 circuit courts have sided with the law and not allowed extensions. The democrats were relying on having a set number, in close races to make up like the seven house races they flipped in Orange County after election day, 2018.

This has nothing to do with meta data but it is interesting.

If Trump is behind then why go to states that will have no basis on the election. Trump was in Orange County yesterday, yes it was a fund raiser, but thousands also showed up and stood along the road to catch a glimpse of him, making it an informal Trump rally. Looks like Trump is trying to help out those Orange County HOR's candidates.

Also Pence is going to Maine today. Looks like he is trying to save Collins.

Trump's internal polling is much better and more accurate than what we are seeing. IMO, Trump doesn't waste time in California and Pence doesn't go to Maine unless they are sure of victory.
 

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