Politics

[CoElkHunter]

He is also Putin's mouthpiece in the EU.

Until Putin decides Orban's no longer useful for his purposes and has him thrown off a roof?

 

[freefall]

He is also Putin's mouthpiece in the EU.

One could view you as Biden's mouthpiece on this site. Just saying.

 

[mdwest]

One could view you as Biden's mouthpiece on this site. Just saying.

???

Joe clearly isn’t a Trump fan… that’s no secret…

But I’m not sure how that makes anyone a Biden mouthpiece…

If anything I get the impression red leg is even less enamored with Biden than he is with trump…

 

[CoElkHunter]

I would not consider Orban a dictator. That’s what the MSM pushes because he will not take immigrants. I was in Hungry in 85 when it actually had a dictator, this guy not close.

On a side note, that was the only time the trains have ever run on time in Italy.

You're right. He's not an actual dictator and is standing up against the EU policy on forced immigration into member states. That's why several EU countries populations have recently turned to the Nationalist parties because the Liberals have destroyed the peace once enjoyed by their populace before allowing SOME radical, non assimilating migrants into their countries. More Brexits' coming soon unless something changes. However, Orban isn't standing up to Putin either. He can't swim in the shark tank forever without getting bitten.

 

[Red Leg]

One could view you as Biden's mouthpiece on this site. Just saying.

And I view you as demonstratively uninformed on the general subject matter under discussion. Just saying. But I could be wrong, so rather than tossing out personal digs, please offer some actual reasoned argument with regard to this discussion.

I am an original Reagan Republican conservative and proud of it. I absolutely oppose the Biden administration. But, Trump has about as much in common with Reagan, whether morally, intellectually, or politically, as a donkey does with a thoroughbred.

Orban is absolutely Putin's shill within the EU. Much as Erdogan is the Islamic shill within NATO. Yes, he has opposed Muslim immigration into Hungary - just as he opposed (until sufficiently bribed) Finnish and Swedish membership into NATO and as he continues to obstruct EU support to Ukraine.

I think the latter positions directly threaten my country's national interests. Worse, that opposition directly supports the strategic goals of Russia. You can embrace Vladimir Putin's as an ally if you wish. In no world in which I exist does abetting the dictator in the Kremlin represent the national interests of my country.

 

[sestoppelman]

"But let us say there are somewhere in deepest darkest Austin soccer moms terrified of WWIII and a draft that would take their children to war. Would they vote Biden or Trump? I do not think it is close, and it would not be Trump."

And if that is so, they would have it exactly backwards.

 

[LivingTheDream]

Whats interesting is if you look at the data from 2016 to 2020 election is wasn't necessarily Suburban Woman that made a difference, they voted about the same percentage Trump vs Hillary, as they did Trump vs Biden (Trump lost, some would say Bigly), it was Middle Class Suburban and Blue Collar men that made the difference, I think it was a 5 point swing. The rest was pretty much on par.

I might be the outlier here but I don't think the Suburban soccer moms or necessary even the true undecided independents that will decide this election, it will be a ground game voter turnout of the base that will matter is about 6 states. I caveat that with states with larger Hispanic percentage, I am not 100% sure how their vote with go, given the recent trending and the border crisis.

To be clear I am not saying you give up on those voting blocks, you can't lose any of them, but if you focus on the Mega church's and the Hispanic communities in those 6 states, you probably have a good shot.

 

[freefall]

And I view you as demonstratively uninformed on the general subject matter under discussion. Just saying. But I could be wrong, so rather than tossing out personal digs, please offer some actual reasoned argument with regard to this discussion.

I am an original Reagan Republican conservative and proud of it. I absolutely oppose the Biden administration. But, Trump has about as much in common with Reagan, whether morally, intellectually, or politically, as a donkey does with a thoroughbred.

Orban is absolutely Putin's shill within the EU. Much as Erdogan is the Islamic shill within NATO. Yes, he has opposed Muslim immigration into Hungary - just as he opposed (until sufficiently bribed) Finnish and Swedish membership into NATO and as he continues to obstruct EU support to Ukraine.

I think the latter positions directly threaten my country's national interests. Worse, that opposition directly supports the strategic goals of Russia. You can embrace Vladimir Putin's as an ally if you wish. In no world in which I exist does abetting the dictator in the Kremlin represent the national interests of my country.

I am quite possibly less informed about many things than you. I just observe that at any opportunity, even if you must manufacture it, you take a gratuitous slap at Trump, who happens to be the presumptive Republican candidate. Hardly the act of a Regan republican.

 

[Tanks]

...you take a gratuitous slap at Trump, who happens to be the presumptive Republican candidate. Hardly the act of a Regan republican.

I assume you are referencing the Reagan quote: "“Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.”

Well, Trump was attacking DeSantis a couple of days before the Florida governor's race if you recall, hoping DeSantis would lose. Trump even praised Crist.

Trump-DeSantis feud overshadows last days of midterm election campaigning in Florida

Donald Trump labels Gov. DeSantis “Ron DeSanctimonious” in jab that turns focus to 2024, even as candidates make closing arguments in 2022 election.

www.tallahassee.com

Trump's praise for DeSantis' Democratic opponent rankles MAGA world

The former president's compliment of Charlie Crist, who ran against Ron DeSantis last year, has not sat well with some of Trump's followers.

www.newsweek.com

Also, while he is the presumptive nominee, Trump is no Republican per se. He is and always be for himself.

 

[spike.t]

Share Message - Dutch anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders abandons PM bid

Dutch anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders abandons PM bid

His party won a dramatic victory in the 2023 elections but talks on forming a coalition continue.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Red Leg]

I am quite possibly less informed about many things than you. I just observe that at any opportunity, even if you must manufacture it, you take a gratuitous slap at Trump, who happens to be the presumptive Republican candidate. Hardly the act of a Regan republican.

If he or his most devoted RINO and Swamp yelling followers had the remotest clue about Reagan’s vision of a broadly based Republican electorate, this election would not be close.

I simply would note that it is Donald Trump that has been the one to do everything in his power to shun my vote. To remind, his comments following South Carolina where he won and had the opportunity to be magnanimous and begin uniting the party. Instead he could not and posted this on his media platform.

"from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don't want them, and will not accept them"

I guess I have the option of either taking him at his word or convincing myself he didn't really mean it.

 

[Red Leg]

Whats interesting is if you look at the data from 2016 to 2020 election is wasn't necessarily Suburban Woman that made a difference, they voted about the same percentage Trump vs Hillary, as they did Trump vs Biden (Trump lost, some would say Bigly), it was Middle Class Suburban and Blue Collar men that made the difference, I think it was a 5 point swing. The rest was pretty much on par.

I might be the outlier here but I don't think the Suburban soccer moms or necessary even the true undecided independents that will decide this election, it will be a ground game voter turnout of the base that will matter is about 6 states. I caveat that with states with larger Hispanic percentage, I am not 100% sure how their vote with go, given the recent trending and the border crisis.

To be clear I am not saying you give up on those voting blocks, you can't lose any of them, but if you focus on the Mega church's and the Hispanic communities in those 6 states, you probably have a good shot.

I think your analysis is correct assuming the urban female gap is no larger than last time. The divide I think he has to worry about most this time is the potential one within his own party. In 2020 he garnered 92% of the registered Republican vote and still lost. So, he needs at least that level of turn out to come home by November, and equally importantly, in the same numbers.

The Republicans should win handily from an enthusiasm gap alone. Few people, regardless of party are remotely excited about another four years of Biden. It speaks a lot, I believe, to the equal lack of enthusiasm for Trump, that this is so close. The ground game once voting begins will likely be telling with such an electorate.

 

[Tanks]

...

The Republicans should win handily from an enthusiasm gap alone. Few people, regardless of party are remotely excited about another four years of Biden. It speaks a lot, I believe, to the equal lack of enthusiasm for Trump, that this is so close. The ground game once voting begins will likely be telling with such an electorate.

One thing to consider is mail in voting. It makes voting very easy, as simple as affixing a stamp.

Democrats encourage that to help them with the turnout issues. Incredibly, the MAGA crowd discourages that as "that is why 2020 was stolen" etc. etc.. So, it is more of an effort to vote for Trump if one refuses to vote by mail believing their vote would not count and "elections are rigged".

 

[rookhawk]

If he or his most devoted RINO and Swamp yelling followers had the remotest clue about Reagan’s vision of a broadly based Republican electorate, this election would not be close.

I simply would note that it is Donald Trump that has been the one to do everything in his power to shun my vote. To remind, his comments following South Carolina where he won and had the opportunity to be magnanimous and begin uniting the party. Instead he could not and posted this on his media platform.

"from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don't want them, and will not accept them"

I guess I have the option of either taking him at his word or convincing myself he didn't really mean it.

Listening to a Reagan speech left everyone in the room more knowledgeable both tactically and strategically. Reagan taught a nation principles and an ideology.

Trump is completely arbitrary and inconsistent. Nobody leaves a Trump speech smarter and better informed on a fundamental US policy. Biden the same.

Comparing Reagan to any of these clowns is impossible, it’s comparing a trout to a bicycle.

 

[fourfive8]

One thing to consider is mail in voting. It makes voting very easy, as simple as affixing a stamp.

Democrats encourage that to help them with the turnout issues. Incredibly, the MAGA crowd discourages that as "that is why 2020 was stolen" etc. etc.. So, it is more of an effort to vote for Trump if one refuses to vote by mail believing their vote would not count and "elections are rigged".

Total BS! Mail-in voting to make it easier to vote is not the problem! Paying attention to mainstream media spin of this issue through the likes of CNN, MSNBC, CBS, PBS, NBC, ABC, etc. is the problem. Just like thinking Schiff is a straight-up patriotic commiefornia representative, a defender of democracy and America! Same load of crp.

The problem is the way mail in ballots are used and easily and commonly misused for fraudulent voting. Get over the blinding hatred of a single person, open eyes and rub a couple of brain cells together to look at big picture. Some with terminal TDS would rather let Brandon and this Admin and the socialist/fascist movement finish the job of destroying our country than let the people of regular America, some 75-80 million of them, legitimately vote for whomever they want, even if it is Trump. TDS is that simple and that transparent.

 

[Tundra Tiger]

"Some with terminal TDS would rather..."
"TDS is that simple and that transparent."

The richness of irony to this by his most ardent supporters is beyond what words can convey, IMHO.

I truly appreciate anyone who has strong convictions about what they believe. I like to think that's true of me, for the things that are important to me. But some level of objectivity has to remain, again IMHO.

 

[Tanks]

...
The problem is the way mail in ballots are used and easily and commonly misused for fraudulent voting. ...

That has been investigated ad nauseum, and debunked as it relates to 2020 election. Ditto for the recent AZ governor's election where Kari Lake cried fraud in multiple lawsuits and was able to prove nothing.

Get over the blinding hatred of a single person, open eyes and rub a couple of brain cells together to look at big picture. Some with terminal TDS would rather let Brandon and this Admin and the socialist/fascist movement finish the job of destroying our country than let the people of regular America, some 75-80 million of them, legitimately vote for whomever they want, even if it is Trump. TDS is that simple and that transparent.

No, some would like someone with integrity and honor to run for POTUS. Plus, as @Red Leg quoted above Trump doesn't want my vote.

If you and your ilk wanted to get rid of Biden, then y'all should have selected someone other than Trump that was more palatable to the majority of conservatives and independents.

Also, Trump, even if elected, will be a lame duck President from day one. We will be in this pickle once again in 4 years, except based on his comments lately Trump would have poisoned the well for any future GOP candidate. Additionally, I do not expect him to stand on the sidelines, but attack candidates that he does not like (which is everyone that does not genuflect).

 

[rookhawk]

Unless it were perhaps LBJ, and he likely could have defeated Nixon in spite of the Vietnam War, I can't think of a democrat who was turned on by their own party.

FDR was elected to his third term while Europe was ablaze in the fall of 1940. He even led passage of the Selective Training and Service Act on September 16, 1940 - two months before the general election. Not only were all those democrats apparently not worried about their kids being drafted in what was shaping up to be a major war - we were already escorting British convoys part way across the Atlantic - but Roosevelt defeated Windell Wilkie with an electoral landslide of 449 to 82.

I think one could make the case that Truman's decision not to seek reelection was in part due to the Korean War, but he also had in effect served two terms, the economy was in particularly bad shape (what seems to be the real driver in most post- Civil War national elections), and his personal popularity was at a low point. Dwight Eisenhower handily defeated Adlai Stevenson in the '52 election, but I think most historians would agree that to the extent his victory had anything to do with the war in Korea, it was because he was the nation's most famous and successful General Officer rather than that he was a Republican.

Since Vietnam, largely thanks to the Reagan build-up, Republicans have gained a perception of being strong on defense. I am not sure who actually has deserved that moniker since him. Bush I was essentially a third Reagan term and he took the US into the First Gulf War. Clinton is generally perceived as a very successful President (seems impossible I know, but it is true) - certainly with respect to the economy. It is hard to make the case that the American public turned narrowly to Bush II because they were afraid of a war. Of course, the aftermath of 911 put paid to those various considerations.

From a defense investment perspective, Obama was on auto pilot through most of his administration, and budgeting was focused on current ops more so than force development or improvement. From a military investment perspective, Trump essentially followed the same course regardless what he may claim.

With respect to Biden, he is Obama without a filter or overall control of his administration. I think it would be a long hard effort to find a single democrat anywhere in this country genuinely in fear of a draft. After all, we don't have one now, have not used one through two decades of war, and I know of no serious national politician of either party supporting one. I would simply suggest were there one proposed in 2024 he would likely be by a Republican.

But let us say there are somewhere in deepest darkest Austin soccer moms terrified of WWIII and a draft that would take their children to war. Would they vote Biden or Trump? I do not think it is close, and it would not be Trump.

@Red Leg this isn't the best example, but its the first one I found and its good enough. Of all the favorability ratings across parties, the one that shows the most dems leaning towards republican interests is related to military/police/protecting the nation.

Ignoring the fact that all elections are won by the swing independent voter, above and beyond that, it is the issue where a democrat is most likely to be disloyal to their party. 17% of democrats in this survey (i've seen a lot higher in others) believe that Republicans are better at this aspect of governing.

What that means is all you need is a Ukraine war expansion, or a Kenosha riot 2.0, or a George Floyd 2.0, and you've not only got swing independent votes moving to Republicans, you've also got up to 17% of democrats that find Republican's skill in this domain to be self-evident.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

Hating Trump is a luxury for a democrat. The one situation where I see democrats turn on their own president is in times of war or potential war.

I don't wish for war, but I merely am calling out that if this Ukraine/Russia thing escalates, or China/Taiwan, or Venezuela/Guyana, democrats do tend to temporarily vote for Republican presidents.

For democrats, the luxury of ripping on Republican POTUS ends when they think they could get nuked or their kids could get drafted and killed in a foreign war. Surveys consistently show democrats believe Republicans are more effective on military matters.

I agree Rook. On the domestic front a terrorist incident, or more murders, or more California exodus because of Newsome's antics will act against him even with Democrats because he wears to coat. So I can't see him trouncing Trump on that basis. On the international front things are highly likely to rapidly deteriorate on several fronts and Trump has the very solid pedestal that all of those threats abated, or were on hold during his term.

 

[Tanks]

...On the international front things are highly likely to rapidly deteriorate on several fronts and Trump has the very solid pedestal that all of those threats abated, or were on hold during his term.

Yet, he is encouraging Putin to attack NATO countries.