Politics

[flatwater bill]

@Red Leg Iraq will feel better after reading that "there is no Arab wrath waiting to be directed toward them".
Apparently Iraq Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani disagrees: The presence of US forces is destabilizing amid regional spillover from the Gaza war" he said on Jan 10th
He added: "There is a need to reorganize this relationship so that it is not a target or justification for any party, internal or foreign, to tamper with the stability in Iraq"
He is worried.
The Brookings Institute also disagrees with you. Arab attitudes have changed greatly since last Oct.
Looking at the missile strikes into Iraq yesterday adds some reality here
FWB

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

I understand the need for a clear strategy. I understand the need to articulate some aspect of it to the public. But how does anyone truthfully put an end date to military operations?

Let's look at this issue. Unhindered transit of both the Red Sea and Persian Gulf for both our vessels and our trading partners is a pretty clear national interest. Regardless how much oil we drill it is not enough to fuel all the West and Japan. Hence access to Middle East production will remain critical - and long after anyone declares victory in the green revolution.

No matter what the political tea leaves, the US will continue to maintain freedom of the seas and access to key regional markets.

With respect to Yemen specifically we have a limited number of options beyond self-defense. I have listed what I think they are in ascending order of escalation and risk.

1) Attack launchers and command and control nodes.

2) Carry out major strikes against Yemen's total military capacity.

3) Blockade Iran. Seize or sink any shipping believed to be carrying military materiel to be used anywhere in the Middle East.

4) Carry out strikes against Iranian military and command control nodes. Initial focus would be the Revolutionary Guard.

5) Boots on the ground in Yemen

6) Boots on the ground in Iran

With respect to escalated strikes against Yemen's broader military capability and governing structures, I believe this would be very problematic. In spite of a years' long conflict with Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been very careful not to dramatically escalate the war. We would have little or no support and Yemen would likely revert to a failed state.

Blockade is an act of war. I frankly think it might be worth the risk. However, Iran has meaningful capacity to retaliate in a direct military conflict at sea through a huge inventory of missiles. It is extremely likely some will get through to strike US military assets. One must also assume every American in range of Iranian supported militant groups would instantly become a target. A blockade would leave free most of the US striking capability to address those threats. The likelihood of further escalation, however, would be extremely high.

Carrying out extensive strikes against Iran itself would be a dramatic action for which I defy anyone to accurately predict the eventual outcome. The potential actions which Iran could take are significant and some could represent a meaningful threat to the Homeland and/or Europe.

I have been to Yemen. Other than a high payoff raid, it is not a place we want to introduce US troops.

Iran has a population of 86 million people. We are not going to invade and march on Tehran.

So what does any administration do? I suspect we will continue to do exactly what we are doing right now. It represents the lowest risk and is fairly effective at maintaining freedom of the seas - a critical national interest. Were I the National Security Advisor, I would be asking for a plan and risk assessment to selectively blockade Iran.

What I am absolutely certain of is that neither GEN Kurilla at CENTCOM, nor the SECDEF, nor the National Security advisor can put a timeline on this mission.

I am sure we would all benefit from others' perspectives of how to resolve this.

 

[Scott CWO]

If not for James Comer and some other patriots willing to stand up, the corrupt Biden family would still be collecting checks. We are headed down the same path in the USA as the corrupt governments in Africa but hopefully there’s still time to stop it.

 

[spike.t]

Nice to see the price hasn’t gone up that much. Wow! Last year at State Fram Stadium in Phoenix the cheapest price was $4100.00 dollars for a nose bleed seat.

So that's the price for an ordinary cheap seat...or they more upmarket ones?

 

[Brent in Az]

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/donald-trump-nikki-haley-new-hampshire/2024/01/20/id/1150347/

 

[Boyd Brooks]

So that's the price for an ordinary cheap seat...or they more upmarket ones?

That was from one of the aftermarket sellers.

 

[Red Leg]

@Red Leg Iraq will feel better after reading that "there is no Arab wrath waiting to be directed toward them".
Apparently Iraq Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani disagrees: The presence of US forces is destabilizing amid regional spillover from the Gaza war" he said on Jan 10th
He added: "There is a need to reorganize this relationship so that it is not a target or justification for any party, internal or foreign, to tamper with the stability in Iraq"
He is worried.
The Brookings Institute also disagrees with you. Arab attitudes have changed greatly since last Oct.
Looking at the missile strikes into Iraq yesterday adds some reality here
FWB

That is an incorrect interpretation of what he is saying. Iraq is not threatened by any other Arab state. Not a single one. Its immediate Arab Neighbors, excluding Syria, remain regional partners with the US. Perhaps you can point out specific examples where Arab governments have exhibited anything but lip service to the Palestinian cause or have chosen to take out their frustrations against Iraq.

However, Iraqi stability is indeed under enormous stress from non-state actors in the region. The reasons for that go back to the original creation of the modern state of Iraq as much as they do to the present conflict in Gaza. As a result Iraq has been left with an abiding sectarian divide that has erupted in violence in one form or another since the partition of the Ottoman Empire following WWI. Regrettably, since the first Gulf War our country has had a very bad record of playing one off against the other. I'll leave the the Peshmerga out of this discussion.

One set of the more potent non-state actors in Iraq is supported by Iran. They are the primary Shia movements currently firing rockets at US bases. The Prime Minister is also Shia. Up until recently, cooperation was fairly good between the US and Iraqi security forces when the opponent was ISIS - a largely Sunni radical movement. I suspect he genuinely believes that the withdrawal of US forces would remove a flash point currently motivating the Shia radicals and Iranian loyalists. He may very well be correct. I am not and have not been an advocate for maintaining a military presence in Iraq.

But, the only state actor affecting Iraqi security currently is Iran. Shia al-Sudani, also a Shia, obviously has concluded appeasing those militant groups is the best way to respond. Considering the fragility of Iraq and his own somewhat tenuous hold on the government, he may be correct.

I would appreciate you forwarding the Brookings article so that I can read what it actually says.

 

[Red Leg]

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/donald-trump-nikki-haley-new-hampshire/2024/01/20/id/1150347/

Believe it or not, to a lot of intelligent, educated Republicans this sort of inarticulate nonsense spewing from Trump sounds batsh$t crazy. Moreover, it is politically stupid on his part. To have a prayer to win in November he needs every single one of these Halley votes. Instead, he seems determined to alienate all of them. Also, every single one of those supposed RINOs was elected by a Republican constituency. How many of those does he think he can insult and still win in November?

Reagan championed a big Republican tent to gain his landslides. Trump seems determined to do the opposite to achieve defeat. Reagan gladly garnered support from large numbers of democrats and independents who would previously have supported a Democrat nominee.


"Nikki Haley has made an unholy alliance with RINOs [Republicans in name only], never Trumpers, 'Americans for no Prosperity,' globalists, and radical left communists," he said. "They want to get liberals and Biden supporters."

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

Some of you all need a Harley in the worst way….go get one, I promise you’ll smile everytime you ride and you can’t read this thread while doing so.

Ok I have a ugly smile and mug, but the good missus counters that.

 

[flatwater bill]

My initial post read "Arab disproval and wrath"......Not "Arab STATE disproval and wrath"......the words do matter.
But here's another one, then I'll get back to hunting topics: The WaPo denigrating Pres Trump:

"Donald Trump Promised to give away his $400,000 presidential salary. And he kept that promise, publicly announcing each gift-at least for his first 3 1/2 years in office.
Then in the middle of last year, the announcements stopped"

How about this instead? "Thank you Mr President for giving away such amazing gifts. Now we will look into 10% for the Big Guy and his Shell companies".....
Nope.....not interested. Democrats have no morality. JMO....................FWB

 

[flatwater bill]

Oops.......almost forgot...........I enjoy everyone's opinion, even if vastly different than mine. Otherwise, this forum is simply a back-slapping, High five session without real discussion. Just wanted to say that.............be strong, share your beliefs. My only suggestion: do your OWN thinking.....don't just parrot back MNM gruel......We are all Human, we can all be wrong from time to time. Listen to others a bit. Preaching done............FWB

 

[Flipper Dude]

We are all Human, we can all be wrong from time to time. Listen to others a bit. Preaching done............FWB

Time to time? Hell, I’ve made a living out of being wrong. Just say it with confidence. Fake it till you make it. That’s been my motto.

 

[BRICKBURN]

Some of you all need a Harley in the worst way….go get one, I promise you’ll smile everytime you ride and you can’t read this thread while doing so.

View attachment 582161View attachment 582162

Ok I have a ugly smile and mug, but the good missus counters that.

Good plan!

 

[BRICKBURN]

This thread was locked for a whole 9 hours.
I hope you joined Phil on a bike or Gina on a snow machine for some fun.

The whining about censorship is hilarious.


You do realize as an adult you have VOLUNTARILY entered into an agreement when you participate on AH?!
If you do not like the agreement you FREELY entered, please make an alternate choice.

https://www.africahunting.com/help/terms/

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Enjoy yourselves. Carry on .

I'd appreciate not receiving an abuse complaint again for some time.

 

[sestoppelman]

Huh..Guess I must have missed something..LOL

 

[BRICKBURN]

Huh..Guess I must have missed something..LOL

Lucky you.

 

[VertigoBE]

This thread was locked for a whole 9 hours.
I hope you joined Phil on a bike or Gina on a snow machine for some fun.

The whining about censorship is hilarious.


You do realize as an adult you have VOLUNTARILY entered into an agreement when you participate on AH?!
If you do not like the agreement you FREELY entered, please make an alternate choice.

https://www.africahunting.com/help/terms/

Terms and rules​

The providers ("we", "us", "our") of the service provided by this web site ("Service") are not responsible for any user-generated content and accounts ("Content"). Content submitted express the views of their author only.
You agree to not use the Service to submit or link to any Content which is defamatory, abusive, hateful, threatening, spam or spam-like, likely to offend, contains adult or objectionable content, contains personal information of others, risks copyright infringement, encourages unlawful activity, or otherwise violates any laws.

We reserve the rights to remove or modify any Content submitted for any reason without explanation. Requests for Content to be removed or modified will be undertaken only at our discretion. We reserve the right to take action against any account with the Service at any time.


Enjoy yourselves. Carry on .

I'd appreciate not receiving an abuse complaint again for some time.

Looks like I missed some excitement… (or perhaps “being spared” is the better term)

 

[Doubleplay]

I missed it, too. Bummer.
However I appreciate the effort of @BRICKBURN to moderate this place.
Not an easy job...

 

[Doug3006]

Thanks @BRICKBURN for the holiday from politics. As much as I enjoy the polite and informative exchanges on politics and world events, the tone of this thread has become far too caustic. I fear that AH is becoming a political blog with a safari thread! The “holiday” made me reflect on my priorities. So, adios to the Politics thread! I’m looking forward to our hunting conversations to come.

 

[Kevin Peacocke]

So back to business - what of the Middle East? Without a five page essay, what is the most likely outcome over the next two years or so? Personally I think the Israel-Hamas war has opened a lot of eyes in the Middle East; sabre rattling is fine until you go too far and then you face the music. I doubt anyone in the world doubts Israel’s resolve, they were threatened with annhialation and they are not going to be annhialated, thank you very much. Just how far would they go to defend themselves? All the way I think, and they are no minor power. Hamas will be totally defeated shortly, but what does the ‘day after’ look like?