The COVID situation in USA based on actual CDC data. Quite a different story...........

One Day...

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So……….. I was tired of the propaganda being provided by the “news” whether from the right or the left, and I wanted to take a look at the actual data and formulate my own opinion.

The data is right there on the CDC website: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Week-Ending-D/r8kw-7aab/data

1596759491340.png

End WeekCOVID-19 DeathsTotal DeathsPneumonia DeathsPneumonia and COVID-19 DeathsInfluenza DeathsPneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths
2/1/2020058,4603,78604794,265
2/8/2020159,2143,79005204,311
2/15/2020058,5283,81205554,367
2/22/2020558,6133,68315634,250
2/29/2020758,9833,81046524,465
3/7/20203559,2053,934176294,580
3/14/20205257,9253,919276124,555
3/21/202056558,6544,5112515515,369
3/28/20203,14762,6556,1501,4234408,264
4/4/20209,95471,9009,8724,73147715,336
4/11/202016,10378,65211,9357,19747220,973
4/18/202017,00576,33811,3527,28426521,149
4/25/202015,35373,36310,3176,57914319,138
5/2/202013,07668,7738,8965,4926516,525
5/9/202011,09366,2927,7764,6804714,226
5/16/20209,08963,8996,6903,7422012,054
5/23/20207,08660,9075,8012,936239,970
5/30/20206,03558,8175,1802,443128,784
6/6/20204,91657,7414,7942,108117,613
6/13/20204,11556,4464,4141,834116,703
6/20/20203,69255,5344,1871,55766,328
6/27/20203,59854,7403,9761,477106,106
7/4/20204,07454,4914,1201,80846,387
7/11/20204,78854,5774,7472,26577,277
7/18/20205,08751,6864,6782,420117,353
7/25/20203,48342,4153,4841,62165,349
8/1/202073920,6601,22236231,602
Total Feb to July 2020143,0981,599,468150,83662,2596,594237,299

and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

1596759599621.png

Using the CDC data without any manipulation, I made this graph:

1597007177853.png


Without any political narrative - I am sick of those - here is what the data says:

1 - As a baseline, without COVID, the weekly standard mortality in the US over the period February to July appears to be between ~40,000 and ~60,000 people/week, being higher in the winter months and lower in the summer months as expected.

2 - In the period February to July 2020 CDC assigns ~9% of US death to COVID as a single agent (more deaths are attributed to multiple agents including COVID, pneumonia and influenza, but assigning death cause among the three would be speculative).

3 - In the period February to July 2020, standard pneumonia alone has killed 8,000 more people than COVID in the US (~151,000 vs. ~143,000).

4 - The peak of COVID mortality in the US (so far) was in April 2020.

The data seems to support the following conclusions:

1) The notion that COVID is currently hitting catastrophically the Sun Belt in the US is not supported by the data. Weekly deaths in June / July are approximately 1/3 of April deaths.

2) The notion that the East Coast was greatly more successful than the Sun Belt in controlling COVID in the US is not supported by the data. The East Coast peak correspond to the April / May deaths (~105,000), while the Sun Belt peak corresponds to the June / July deaths (~33,000) with the addition of upcoming August deaths since death is a lagging indicator.

3) I was surprised to see that influenza alone is reported to have killed only ~6,500 people in the period. I expect that influenza deaths are under-reported and that the undetermined category “Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths” includes a fair number of influenza deaths because the typical annual influenza deaths in the US are 37,500 over the last 10 seasons (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While the impact of flu,61,000 deaths annually since 2010.) and there is no reason to believe that influenza mortality for the 2019/2020 season would suddenly be half or a third of its usual mortality.

4) While not insignificant, with ~9% of the total deaths in the period for the US, COVID is far from being the leading cause of death in the US in the period.

Since the conclusions derived from the data were so different from what the “news” narrative led to believe, this prompted me to make one more graph using strictly the CDC data:

1596759873696.png


If we compare the weekly number of new cases (blue infection curve) with the weekly number of new deaths (red mortality curve) in the US, the story further departs from what we hear on the “news.” I am not an epidemiologist, and do not pretend to be one, but to my lay eyes it seems that the societal situation is rather good and that we are in the process of developing herd immunity.

Considering the on-going feud between the Administration and the CDC, I do not expect the CDC numbers to be manipulated to favor the Administration. For lack of any evidence to the contrary, I am taking these at face value…

I thought this could be of interest. This is strictly data-based...
 
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Excellent analysis!

I too have been bothered by the news reports and the actual data. I look at the Johns Hopkins COVID dashboard often. The numbers suggest that the US has about 25% of the cases worldwide and 22% of the deaths. China is quite low, while India's numbers are skyrocketing. I suspect that many countries are under counting or under reporting or both. But the question remains as to why China's numbers are so low (good).

Within the US, the number of deaths and death rate for NY and NJ really skew the data. These two states account for 30% of the US COVID related deaths (49k of 160k as of 8/7/2020).
 

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Funny what happens when you just look at the raw data, isn't it?

2) The notion that the East Coast was greatly more successful than the Sun Belt in controlling COVID in the US is not supported by the data. The East Coast peak correspond to the April / May deaths (~105,000), while the Sun Belt peak corresponds to the June / July deaths (~33,000) with the addition of upcoming August deaths since death is a lagging indicator.

This is the only point I question. I don't think you can just look at deaths as a comparison. Population has to be accounted for too as a higher population will lead to higher deaths, everything else being equal.

To me, your last chart really says it all. That "flattening the curve" served it's purpose and gave us time not to stop COVID, but to figure out how to deal with it, thus the lower death rate.
 

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It is the lung and heart damage that results from COVID, not the deaths, that worries me.
Also hugely overblown - if you were on a ventilator, yes - goes with that sort of treatment.

Someday, when the politicisation of this has finally abated, we will also likely realize our death rate could have been much lower had we merely used hydroxychloroquine at early onset like most of Europe has.

Collectively, we have created two generations of what are essentially grown children who have never faced anything more perilous in their lives than student loan debt and maybe bad weed or a hangover. Obviously, there are some fine exceptions who have seen combat over the last two decades. But their exceptionalism serves to prove the rule. As a result, these children have embraced the hysteria surrounding this infection. They ferret out every nuance of potential threat. They have no reality check - no sense of perspective - attached to their fear meter, and expect some form of mom or dad to take care of it for them.

Safe places, cancel culture, group think are all part of this expectation to live in a threat free environment - and more importantly their reaction to any perceived threat to it. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, there is nothing quite so liberating as having a 152mm round go off next to you without effect. A shame more of this generation hasn't experienced something similar.
 

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Also hugely overblown - if you were on a ventilator, yes - goes with that sort of treatment.

Someday, when the politicisation of this has finally abated, we will also likely realize our death rate could have been much lower had we merely used hydroxychloroquine at early onset like most of Europe has.

Collectively, we have created two generations of what are essentially grown children who have never faced anything more perilous in their lives than student loan debt and maybe bad weed or a hangover. Obviously, there are some fine exceptions who have seen combat over the last two decades. But their exceptionalism serves to prove the rule. As a result, these children have embraced the hysteria surrounding this infection. They ferret out every nuance of potential threat. They have no reality check - no sense of perspective - attached to their fear meter, and expect some form of mom or dad to take care of it for them.

Safe places, cancel culture, group think are all part of this expectation to live in a threat free environment - and more importantly their reaction to any perceived threat to it. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, there is nothing quite so liberating as having a 152mm round go off next to you without effect. A shame more of this generation hasn't experienced something similar.
Not sure where you are getting your facts. Not only are heart and lung problems a serious problem, but there has been no widespread use of hydroxychloroquine in Europe.
 

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Not sure where you are getting your facts. Not only are heart and lung problems a serious problem, but there has been no widespread use of hydroxychloroquine in Europe.

The data is pretty conclusive that those with lingering conditions were mostly those who required hospitalization; pretty common with any illness requiring hospitalization. But if you want to embrace and live in fear of that potential as well - you should do so.

Steven Hatfill is a fairly well known and respected virologist. Admittedly, he is not liked by all in the MSM since he doesn't follow the approved political script which includes unreserved appreciation for Fauci and condemnation of Hydroxychloroquine. You may remember he was something of a hero to many when falsely tried in the press as a person of interest in the 2001 Anthrax attacks. He won a 5 mil USD settlement from the government when the real perpetrator was caught.

"Here in our country, Fauci continued to ignore the ever accumulating and remarkable early-use data on hydroxychloroquine and he became focused on a new antiviral compound named remdesivir. This was an experimental drug that had to be given intravenously every day for five days. It was never suitable for major widespread outpatient or at-home use as part of a national pandemic plan. We now know now that remdesivir has no effect on overall COVID patient mortality and it costs thousands of dollars per patient.

Hydroxychloroquine, by contrast, costs 60 cents a tablet, it can be taken at home, it fits in with the national pandemic plan for respiratory viruses, and a course of therapy simply requires swallowing three tablets in the first 24 hours followed by one tablet every 12 hours for five days.

There are now 53 studies that show positive results of hydroxychloroquine in COVID infections. There are 14 global studies that show neutral or negative results — and 10 of them were of patients in very late stages of COVID-19, where no antiviral drug can be expected to have much effect. Of the remaining four studies, two come from the same University of Minnesota author. The other two are from the faulty Brazil paper, which should be retracted, and the fake Lancet paper, which was."


Every doctor in my personal circle, which is admittedly relatively few, has self-proscribed HCl prophylactically for several days following possible COVID exposure. None have become physically sick, though two now test positive for antibodies, no doubt due to symptomless infection.
 
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Saul

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The data is pretty conclusive that those with lingering conditions were mostly those who required hospitalization; pretty common with any illness requiring hospitalization. But if you want to embrace and live in fear of that potential as well - you should do so.

Steven Hatfill is a fairly well known and respected virologist. Admittedly, he is not liked by all in the MSM since he doesn't follow the approved political script which includes unreserved appreciation for Fauci and condemnation of Hydroxychloroquine. You may remember he was something of a hero to many when falsely tried in the press as a person of interest in the 2001 Anthrax attacks. He won a 5 mil USD settlement from the government when the real perpetrator was caught.

"Here in our country, Fauci continued to ignore the ever accumulating and remarkable early-use data on hydroxychloroquine and he became focused on a new antiviral compound named remdesivir. This was an experimental drug that had to be given intravenously every day for five days. It was never suitable for major widespread outpatient or at-home use as part of a national pandemic plan. We now know now that remdesivir has no effect on overall COVID patient mortality and it costs thousands of dollars per patient.

Hydroxychloroquine, by contrast, costs 60 cents a tablet, it can be taken at home, it fits in with the national pandemic plan for respiratory viruses, and a course of therapy simply requires swallowing three tablets in the first 24 hours followed by one tablet every 12 hours for five days.

There are now 53 studies that show positive results of hydroxychloroquine in COVID infections. There are 14 global studies that show neutral or negative results — and 10 of them were of patients in very late stages of COVID-19, where no antiviral drug can be expected to have much effect. Of the remaining four studies, two come from the same University of Minnesota author. The other two are from the faulty Brazil paper, which should be retracted, and the fake Lancet paper, which was."


Every doctor in my personal circle, which is admittedly relatively few, has self-proscribed HCl prophylactically for several days following possible COVID exposure. None have become physically sick, though two now test positive for antibodies, no doubt due to symptomless infection.
Fauci's job is to use the best scientific data and clinical trials available to make recommendations. He does not do so based on circumstantial, personal experiences of certain doctors.
 

Red Leg

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Fauci's job is to use the best scientific data and clinical trials available to make recommendations. He does not do so based on circumstantial, personal experiences of certain doctors.
I said my circle was small, but the international studies are pretty conclusive. But they don't fit a specific agenda or the fears of the sheep that follow it.

He is the Judge Ito of our time.

Wore a #19 jersey to the National's game to throw the first pitch......... can't make it up.
 

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Steven Hatfill is a fairly well known and respected virologist. Admittedly, he is not liked by all in the MSM since he doesn't follow the approved political script which includes unreserved appreciation for Fauci and condemnation of Hydroxychloroquine. You may remember he was something of a hero to many when falsely tried in the press as a person of interest in the 2001 Anthrax attacks. He won a 5 mil USD settlement from the government when the real perpetrator was caught.

Steven Hatfill and Richard Jewel are but two examples of the FBI and the MSM ruining peoples lives.

 

One Day...

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Addendum...

Because the number of pneumonia deaths exceeds the number of COVID deaths in the CDC reporting (~151,000 vs. ~143,000 from February to July 2020), another point I looked at is the possible over-imputation of mortality to pneumonia. Considering the overlap between COVID and pneumonia symptoms, there is a risk that diagnosis errors are made in either direction, over-reporting or under-reporting COVID.

Here is what is interesting: even if the causes of deaths are voluntarily merged between COVID, pneumonia and influenza, this still does not change the overall story.

1596818918047.png


Yes the numbers are higher if we add COVID + pneumonia + influenza (and we know that if we do this we surely overestimate the impact of COVID) but still, there is no correlation between the number of new COVID cases after April and the number of deaths. The COVID + pneumonia + influenza mortality curve is higher than the COVID-only mortality curve (as expected), but the two curve trends are fundamentally the same: they do not follow the sharp increase in COVID cases, hence the basic conclusion stands: we are apparently treating better and we are in the process of developing herd immunity.

Actually, looking at the graph, it seems likely that our hospitals have also become better at treating pneumonia with the experience / equipment they gained with COVID, because the COVID-only curve and the COVID + pneumonia + influenza curve have been progressively merging over the last four months.

Overall, there is no arguing that COVID is a serious issue, factually per the CDC reports it has killed for the February to July 2020 period more than twice as many people (143,000) as the worst flue season in the last 10 years (2017/2018 season with 61,000 deaths), but considering the data and the data trends, I pain to understand the reporting in the “news.”

I only wish this issue could be addressed for what it factually is, instead of being a political football…


PS: Regarding the hydroxychloroquine issue, I have reached the same conclusion: I only wish this issue could be addressed for what it factually is, instead of being a political football…

The simple fact that the Lancet, one of the world’s top medical journals, and the New England Journal of Medicine both retracted highly publicized studies that raised alarms about the safety of hydroxychloroquine amid wide scientific condemnation of the data underlying the studies, tells me all I need to know about the political nature of such studies, regardless of the merit, or lack thereof, of the treatment.

As to the reported dangers of hydroxychloroquine, this is were the "news" really went overboard in their politicization. The fact is that hydroxychloroquine has been approved for medical use in the United States since 1955, and that whether it is effective on COVID or not - which is a worthy question - one is factually not putting one's life at risk taking it under prescription by a qualified medical doctor.
 
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Come on Pascal!!!! You can't expect human beings will listen to or look at simple data put before them...its just doesn't fit the narrative needed to drive what those in power want this election cycle. The media doesn't like it when the lemmings stop running.

Good job my friend.
 

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Thank you, Pascal, for an unbiased nonpolitical analysis of the situation. Of course, one will never see this in the lamescream media. It doesn't fit their anti Trump fanaticism and is not what the looney lefties want people to know. It does not fit with their fake news campaign.
 

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Fauci's job is to use the best scientific data and clinical trials available to make recommendations. He does not do so based on circumstantial, personal experiences of certain doctors.

PS: Regarding the hydroxychloroquine issue, I have reached the same conclusion: I only wish this issue could be addressed for what it factually is, instead of being a political football…

The simple fact that the Lancet, one of the world’s top medical journals, and the New England Journal of Medicine both retracted highly publicized studies that raised alarms about the safety of hydroxychloroquine amid wide scientific condemnation of the data underlying the studies, tells me all I need to know about the political nature of such studies, regardless of the merit, or lack thereof, of the treatment.

As to the reported dangers of hydroxychloroquine, this is were the "news" really went overboard in their politicization. The fact is that hydroxychloroquine has been approved for medical use in the United States since 1955, and that whether it is effective on COVID or not - which is a worthy question - one is factually not putting one's life at risk taking it under prescription by a qualified medical doctor.

On or around January 23, China shut down Wuhan. At apx. the same time, news came out of China that chloroquine may prevent the virus from infecting people. Evidently China had hospitals full of virus patients, but no one with lupus had the virus. What did the lupus patients have in common. They were all on chloroquine.

The Orthodox Jewish community of Queens and Brooklyn were the first group in America that were hard hit. If I recall correct, in February, possibly March, a MD had treated 350+ patients in this community with chloroquine + azithromycin + zinc. None died and all were well quickly. His partner had treated 150+ patients with the same results. How did this doctor know about the treatments. A NIH study in 2005 showed chloroquine was a good treatment for coronavirus in primates. (see below) Dr. Fauci was well aware of that study and had made comments on it around the time the study came out. Also in February or March, a French study came out reporting good results for chloroquine.



Evidently chloroquine doesn't help patients that are on ventilators or already in bad shape. If they are treated in the first 48-96 hours of symptoms, the recovery is virtually 100%. This information has been known since March.

How much sway do the pharmaceutical companies have over studies that come out against chloroquine, since they are all trying to get a vaccine that may be worth $100's of billions. You hate to even think about this question.

There has been studies prior to the virus that show chloroquine is one of the safest drugs on the market. Evidently it is safer than aspirin. It is amazing that governors, pharmaceutical boards can get off on saying it kills people.

Why is chloroquine a hot potato? It is all political. All because Trump said it was good. If I had a family member that died from the virus because chloroquine was withheld..................
 

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I cover two different hospitals and the acuity and number of cases we are seeing are much higher now than in the spring. As of right now, we have 5 patients on VV ECMO with 3-5 previous runs. Currently we have a 100% survival rate on those patients which is remarkable. Of course, we do have some patients who do not well and succumb to COVID.

I’m a firm believer in HCQ and would prescribe it to anyone in my family if they developed symptoms. Most doctors I work with agree on this but we must give our patients Remdesivir per guidelines.
 

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Excellent analysis!

I too have been bothered by the news reports and the actual data. I look at the Johns Hopkins COVID dashboard often. The numbers suggest that the US has about 25% of the cases worldwide and 22% of the deaths. China is quite low, while India's numbers are skyrocketing. I suspect that many countries are under counting or under reporting or both. But the question remains as to why China's numbers are so low (good).

Within the US, the number of deaths and death rate for NY and NJ really skew the data. These two states account for 30% of the US COVID related deaths (49k of 160k as of 8/7/2020).

Since this started this has changed so much.
Now the states that were the epidemic are in control since they had to.
The States that were doing the best have now become the places where the epidemic is out of control.
Now this is what it looks like. NY is down the list and NJ isn’t even in the running.
20E140DA-3CC7-46AF-AE9D-53BDCE1A3E1B.jpeg

We need to convince everyone that this is not something that is under control!!
 

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What are the headings or units for each column? A table of numbers without columns headings is difficult to understand. From the numbers I've looked at, it reinforces that NY and NJ has much higher death rates.
 

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What are the headings or units for each column? A table of numbers without columns headings is difficult to understand. From the numbers I've looked at, it reinforces that NY and NJ has much higher death rates.
Sorry didn’t realize I cut them off!!
945D93F5-14A6-46FF-815B-49426AEC0C41.jpeg
 

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Fauci's job is to use the best scientific data and clinical trials available to make recommendations. He does not do so based on circumstantial, personal experiences of certain doctors.

Saul I like you, but you are being extremely naive.

He knowingly lied about masks, did not socially distance or where a mask at the nats game, and refused to say that protesting could spread the virus when asked by Rep Jim Jordan.
 
 

 

 

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