The COVID situation in USA based on actual CDC data. Quite a different story...........

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The Fauch has been simply an administrator for over 30 years- nothing more!. Someone needs to ask the camera chasing weasel about the last time he successfully led a policy to rid us of a similar virus..... huh? silence? yep... zip. It's all a show, a drama if you will within the political bureaucracy. He and others just like him in political power need to be held accountable for the huge and unreported damage that is being done to all populations around the world- inconvenient but real news that is not being covered and sadly probably will never be covered. That damage is both long term economic, social and direct health related including starvation... as in death!! Not because of a virus but due directly to policies of the power hungry for the sake of maintaining power and conrol. The likes of CNN and all the alphabet channels really are too busy fawning over such figures as Fauci to be concerned about what is really going on. All that info is hiding in plain sight yet remains unrecognized I guess because of a disease called "Trump derangement syndrome".
 
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@fourfive8 following on from what you said...I have put this on the other thread , but an interesting headline in a uk newspaper and showing the chaos caused to other treatments and tests in hospitals

IMG-20200805-WA0035.jpg
IMG-20200805-WA0036.jpg
 

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Saul I like you, but you are being extremely naive.

He knowingly lied about masks, did not socially distance or where a mask at the nats game, and refused to say that protesting could spread the virus when asked by Rep Jim Jordan.
When did he lie about masks? With regard to the nats game, he should have done better. Yes, he is human and makes mistakes, but he is also supposed to be an example for proper safety precautions and he failed on in that instance. Jordan was trying to get him to give a soundbite against protesting and he would not do it. Good for him for not falling for such an obvious trap. He did say that crowding, especially without a mask, does spread the virus.
 

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He hasn't refrained from offering an opinion on darn near every other collective human behaviour.

He is indeed the Judge Ito of our time - basking, demurely, in his 15 minutes of fame.
 

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When did he lie about masks? With regard to the nats game, he should have done better. Yes, he is human and makes mistakes, but he is also supposed to be an example for proper safety precautions and he failed on in that instance. Jordan was trying to get him to give a soundbite against protesting and he would not do it. Good for him for not falling for such an obvious trap. He did say that crowding, especially without a mask, does spread the virus.


Literally takes 2 seconds to google it.

I will admit it was a bit of a trap but doesn't make him less of a hypocrite. He did say he would advise against attending a Trump rally. So he has opine on these events in the past.
 

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Faucis job is not to set policy nor to oblige anyone who wants a sound bite to further their own political agenda.

If a scientist is asked how to curb a pandemic it is not unreasonable for them to give a coldly logical answer which they well know will never become policy. It’s not their job to bend their objective opinion into workable policy.

Politicians are our elected masters of none who are supposed to use the Cliffs Notes to create policy. Presumably they are to use non political government agencies for unbiased data and advice from people who live and breathe the issue at hand. Never mind those pesky K Street lobbyists as well as their constituencies super well-informed rantings.

Faucis unvarnished opinions could have been a big influence on the swift Federal response to this. As the swift Federal response was not part of our reality and responsibility was punted to individual states, Fauci is just a pretty smart guy screaming into the void. If you don’t like him rest assured his existence has had little to no effect on you.
 

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Faucis job is not to set policy nor to oblige anyone who wants a sound bite to further their own political agenda.

If a scientist is asked how to curb a pandemic it is not unreasonable for them to give a coldly logical answer which they well know will never become policy. It’s not their job to bend their objective opinion into workable policy.

Politicians are our elected masters of none who are supposed to use the Cliffs Notes to create policy. Presumably they are to use non political government agencies for unbiased data and advice from people who live and breathe the issue at hand. Never mind those pesky K Street lobbyists as well as their constituencies super well-informed rantings.

Faucis unvarnished opinions could have been a big influence on the swift Federal response to this. As the swift Federal response was not part of our reality and responsibility was punted to individual states, Fauci is just a pretty smart guy screaming into the void. If you don’t like him rest assured his existence has had little to no effect on you.

The scientific panels set up by various governments around the world have set policy ...simple fact...every governments mantra has been we are following the scientific advise...which was everything and anything to do with handling this situation...so not sure how you can say these people have had no effect on any of us.....I would say bullshit...
 

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The scientific panels set up by various governments around the world have set policy ...simple fact...every governments mantra has been we are following the scientific advise...which was everything and anything to do with handling this situation...so not sure how you can say these people have had no effect on any of us.....I would say bullshit...

You can say bullshit but that doesn’t make it less true. Fauci has thoughts, opinions and beliefs that add up to zilch if he is not charged with helping shape a Federal policy. Agree or disagree with him, he’s a gun without bullets if those who create policy ignore him.

1596984089474.jpeg
 

spike.t

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You can say bullshit but that doesn’t make it less true. Fauci has thoughts, opinions and beliefs that add up to zilch if he is not charged with helping shape a Federal policy. Agree or disagree with him, he’s a gun without bullets if those who create policy ignore him.

View attachment 361918

Not what I meant....and I will say bullshit again...and :A Happy Wave:
 

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You can say bullshit but that doesn’t make it less true. Fauci has thoughts, opinions and beliefs that add up to zilch if he is not charged with helping shape a Federal policy. Agree or disagree with him, he’s a gun without bullets if those who create policy ignore him.

View attachment 361918

He has been in charge of federal policy for over 30 years. And as One Day's original post pointed out, the data has not backed up his recommendations.
 

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Great data collection and analysis.
 
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D

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This is the kind of situation that warrants comment because this discussion has the potential to get people killed. The analysis that started this discussion is dead wrong on several substantial points. First, if you click on the link provided, you will see that a column of CDC data titled "percent of expected deaths" was omitted. That is key because any time it exceeds 100% it means that the Covid pandemic is killing more people than would be expected to die. After February 22nd, it exceeded 100% every week until July 18th and in April the death rate was over 40% higher than expected. Saying that Covid was just 9% of US deaths belies the fact that it was a novel source of mortality that killed a lot of people who would not have died. Why in God's name would you not include that information?

The second issue is that direct comparisons on a graph showing weekly cases and weekly deaths are incorrect because Covid is a disease that takes up to a month to kill you, so there is a lag. The other problem is that Covid death counts are very incomplete because they can only be ascribed to Covid if there was a positive test. There were thousands of people who died of classic Covid symptoms but who never received a test. This was especially true in the beginning when test kits were in short supply but there is still a test shortage, and people die suddenly prior to testing. The rural medical examiners can't figure out that a post-mortum test might be important so they do not do them.

Here are some truths:
1. The number of cases is increasing. The rate of increase has slowed in many areas (the Johns Hopkins coronavirus resource center is a great tool to visualize this) But every day there are more new cases in every State. Nationally, there has been no flattening of the curve (Look at JH united states cases).
2. The number of deaths has exceeded 155K and shows no signs of slowing. Deaths will rise accordingly within a few weeks. Most of those people would be alive had the Federal government responded appropriately. Having individual States work it out is like having a peeing section in a public pool.
3. Thirty seven states exceed the 4% positive test rate recommended by WHO before reopening. The highest percent positives are mostly sunbelt States.

I think the only silver lining is that there are many states slowing the rate of increase, and I think it is because people are beginning to take this seriously and more are distancing and masking. The other thing is that physicians have learned a lot about how to treat Covid and more people are surviving, although we are now learning about long-term debilitation.

And Chloroquine? Case control studies were stopped because it seemed to kill people. Europe controlled the pandemic better not because of chloroquine, but because their lockdown had a much higher proportion of the population who complied compared to the U.S. Faucci himself has stated publicly that he would love for the drug to work, except no one can show that it does using unbiased or non-confounded data. I wish that people would just shut up about it.

The sooner people start taking this seriously the sooner we get to hunt again. Put on those masks, and get distanced.

Jeff

PS: that thing about Faucci not recommending masks. They were trying to save them for health care workers, and no one realized that aerosols were as serious as they turned out to be. People thought it was droplets and surfaces, which is a lot like other viruses. It was not and guidelines changed. That is how science works.
 

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PS: that thing about Faucci not recommending masks. They were trying to save them for health care workers, and no one realized that aerosols were as serious as they turned out to be. People thought it was droplets and surfaces, which is a lot like other viruses. It was not and guidelines changed. That is how science works.

I appreciate your opinion Fauci but your P.S. post is full of contradictions and is the opposite of science. In fact, I would argue we have followed his opinions too much and not science.

1) He did say they were trying to save them for healthcare workers and that is why he lied. See if they needed to save them for healthcare workers, then they knew people needed to wear them. How many people would have been saved by "stopping the spread" if that recommendation had been given at the beginning. Did he come out and say that he was wrong or that they got the science wrong? No he said it was justified due to the shortage and those being needed for health care workers. This is a dangerous precedent, that the government can lie to save some Americans but not others.

As far as changing guidelines, by making recommendations on unproven hypothesis is not science, it is a irresponsible. Its not how science works and in fact is the opposite.
 
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One thing the data doesn't reveal is how much error/fraud is involved. False positives, flat out fake results, corrupt reporting and inaccurate causes of death have skewed the data to the point it's almost meaningless. The cold hard truth is the total number of deaths so far this year from all causes is almost identical to any other year. This COVID nonsense is BS.
 

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This is the kind of situation that warrants comment because this discussion has the potential to get people killed. The analysis that started this discussion is dead wrong on several substantial points. First, if you click on the link provided, you will see that a column of CDC data titled "percent of expected deaths" was omitted. That is key because any time it exceeds 100% it means that the Covid pandemic is killing more people than would be expected to die. After February 22nd, it exceeded 100% every week until July 18th and in April the death rate was over 40% higher than expected. Saying that Covid was just 9% of US deaths belies the fact that it was a novel source of mortality that killed a lot of people who would not have died. Why in God's name would you not include that information?

The second issue is that direct comparisons on a graph showing weekly cases and weekly deaths are incorrect because Covid is a disease that takes up to a month to kill you, so there is a lag. The other problem is that Covid death counts are very incomplete because they can only be ascribed to Covid if there was a positive test. There were thousands of people who died of classic Covid symptoms but who never received a test. This was especially true in the beginning when test kits were in short supply but there is still a test shortage, and people die suddenly prior to testing. The rural medical examiners can't figure out that a post-mortum test might be important so they do not do them.

Here are some truths:
1. The number of cases is increasing. The rate of increase has slowed in many areas (the Johns Hopkins coronavirus resource center is a great tool to visualize this) But every day there are more new cases in every State. Nationally, there has been no flattening of the curve (Look at JH united states cases).
2. The number of deaths has exceeded 155K and shows no signs of slowing. Deaths will rise accordingly within a few weeks. Most of those people would be alive had the Federal government responded appropriately. Having individual States work it out is like having a peeing section in a public pool.
3. Thirty seven states exceed the 4% positive test rate recommended by WHO before reopening. The highest percent positives are mostly sunbelt States.

I think the only silver lining is that there are many states slowing the rate of increase, and I think it is because people are beginning to take this seriously and more are distancing and masking. The other thing is that physicians have learned a lot about how to treat Covid and more people are surviving, although we are now learning about long-term debilitation.

And Chloroquine? Case control studies were stopped because it seemed to kill people. Europe controlled the pandemic better not because of chloroquine, but because their lockdown had a much higher proportion of the population who complied compared to the U.S. Faucci himself has stated publicly that he would love for the drug to work, except no one can show that it does using unbiased or non-confounded data. I wish that people would just shut up about it.

The sooner people start taking this seriously the sooner we get to hunt again. Put on those masks, and get distanced.

Jeff

PS: that thing about Faucci not recommending masks. They were trying to save them for health care workers, and no one realized that aerosols were as serious as they turned out to be. People thought it was droplets and surfaces, which is a lot like other viruses. It was not and guidelines changed. That is how science works.


If you waste your time a talkin'
To the people who don't listen
To the things that you are sayin'
Who do you thinks gonna hear
And if you should die explainin'
How the thing they complain about
Or the things they could be changing
Who do you thinks gonna care
 
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spike.t

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As has been found out in quite a few countries if people tested positive that died, ... even if it wasn't the cause of death they were classified as dying from it...in uk people who died months after recovering or having tested positive with no symptoms ,even if run over by a bus were classified in the covid death figures. This was because the people sorting the figures out were looking at charts for people who had tested positive, and if it showed they had recently died even if months after recovery they were put on the list.....
 

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So……….. I was tired of the propaganda being provided by the “news” whether from the right or the left, and I wanted to take a look at the actual data and formulate my own opinion.

The data is right there on the CDC website: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Week-Ending-D/r8kw-7aab/data

View attachment 361490
End WeekCOVID-19 DeathsTotal DeathsPneumonia DeathsPneumonia and COVID-19 DeathsInfluenza DeathsPneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths
2/1/2020058,4603,78604794,265
2/8/2020159,2143,79005204,311
2/15/2020058,5283,81205554,367
2/22/2020558,6133,68315634,250
2/29/2020758,9833,81046524,465
3/7/20203559,2053,934176294,580
3/14/20205257,9253,919276124,555
3/21/202056558,6544,5112515515,369
3/28/20203,14762,6556,1501,4234408,264
4/4/20209,95471,9009,8724,73147715,336
4/11/202016,10378,65211,9357,19747220,973
4/18/202017,00576,33811,3527,28426521,149
4/25/202015,35373,36310,3176,57914319,138
5/2/202013,07668,7738,8965,4926516,525
5/9/202011,09366,2927,7764,6804714,226
5/16/20209,08963,8996,6903,7422012,054
5/23/20207,08660,9075,8012,936239,970
5/30/20206,03558,8175,1802,443128,784
6/6/20204,91657,7414,7942,108117,613
6/13/20204,11556,4464,4141,834116,703
6/20/20203,69255,5344,1871,55766,328
6/27/20203,59854,7403,9761,477106,106
7/4/20204,07454,4914,1201,80846,387
7/11/20204,78854,5774,7472,26577,277
7/18/20205,08751,6864,6782,420117,353
7/25/20203,48342,4153,4841,62165,349
8/1/202073920,6601,22236231,602
Total Feb to July 2020143,0981,599,468150,83662,2596,594237,299

and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

View attachment 361491
Using the CDC data without any manipulation, I made this graph:

View attachment 361948

Without any political narrative - I am sick of those - here is what the data says:

1 - As a baseline, without COVID, the weekly standard mortality in the US over the period February to July appears to be between ~40,000 and ~60,000 people/week, being higher in the winter months and lower in the summer months as expected.

2 - In the period February to July 2020 CDC assigns ~9% of US death to COVID as a single agent (more deaths are attributed to multiple agents including COVID, pneumonia and influenza, but assigning death cause among the three would be speculative).

3 - In the period February to July 2020, standard pneumonia alone has killed 8,000 more people than COVID in the US (~151,000 vs. ~143,000).

4 - The peak of COVID mortality in the US (so far) was in April 2020.

The data seems to support the following conclusions:

1) The notion that COVID is currently hitting catastrophically the Sun Belt in the US is not supported by the data. Weekly deaths in June / July are approximately 1/3 of April deaths.

2) The notion that the East Coast was greatly more successful than the Sun Belt in controlling COVID in the US is not supported by the data. The East Coast peak correspond to the April / May deaths (~105,000), while the Sun Belt peak corresponds to the June / July deaths (~33,000) with the addition of upcoming August deaths since death is a lagging indicator.

3) I was surprised to see that influenza alone is reported to have killed only ~6,500 people in the period. I expect that influenza deaths are under-reported and that the undetermined category “Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths” includes a fair number of influenza deaths because the typical annual influenza deaths in the US are 37,500 over the last 10 seasons (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html#:~:text=While the impact of flu,61,000 deaths annually since 2010.) and there is no reason to believe that influenza mortality for the 2019/2020 season would suddenly be half or a third of its usual mortality.

4) While not insignificant, with ~9% of the total deaths in the period for the US, COVID is far from being the leading cause of death in the US in the period.

Since the conclusions derived from the data were so different from what the “news” narrative led to believe, this prompted me to make one more graph using strictly the CDC data:

View attachment 361493

If we compare the weekly number of new cases (blue infection curve) with the weekly number of new deaths (red mortality curve) in the US, the story further departs from what we hear on the “news.” I am not an epidemiologist, and do not pretend to be one, but to my lay eyes it seems that the societal situation is rather good and that we are in the process of developing herd immunity.

Considering the on-going feud between the Administration and the CDC, I do not expect the CDC numbers to be manipulated to favor the Administration. For lack of any evidence to the contrary, I am taking these at face value…

I thought this could be of interest. This is strictly data-based...
One Day, please get this data out far and wide, top priority.
 

One Day...

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Thank you for the feedback. In response to a few comments, here are a few thoughts...

East Coast vs. Sun Belt

In my first post, I stated "2) The notion that the East Coast was greatly more successful than the Sun Belt in controlling COVID in the US is not supported by the data. The East Coast peak correspond to the April / May deaths (~105,000), while the Sun Belt peak corresponds to the June / July deaths (~33,000) with the addition of upcoming August deaths since death is a lagging indicator."

Royal27 raised a very valid point:
This is the only point I question. I don't think you can just look at deaths as a comparison. Population has to be accounted for too as a higher population will lead to higher deaths, everything else being equal.

I actually looked at this Royal, and I did account for population.

1597106101146.png


Specifically, in the simplified comparison between East Coast and Sun Belt, I looked at two of the most affected States in each area. According to the Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/NY/POP010210) the New York State population is 19.4 million and the New Jersey State population is 8.8 million. Comparatively, the Texas State population is 25.1 million, and the Arizona State population is 6.4 million. So, in this simplified comparison East Coat is represented by 28.2 million people, and Sun Belt is represented by 31.5 million people.

Adding, for example, Virginia (8 million people) and Louisiana (4.5 million people) to the comparison only brings parity (36.2 million vs. 36 million), but when you add if only just Florida and Southern California, the Sun Belt has a significantly higher population than the East Coast.

So, in effect, population number was accounted for in the comparison, even if not spelled out for brevity concern, and the population number bias when all East Cost and all Sun Belt States are counted, would actually accentuate my point that "The notion that the East Coast was greatly more successful than the Sun Belt in controlling COVID in the US is not supported by the data." :)

"Dead wrong" analysis ?
The analysis that started this discussion is dead wrong on several substantial points. First, if you click on the link provided, you will see that a column of CDC data titled "percent of expected deaths" was omitted. That is key because any time it exceeds 100% it means that the Covid pandemic is killing more people than would be expected to die. After February 22nd, it exceeded 100% every week until July 18th and in April the death rate was over 40% higher than expected. Saying that Covid was just 9% of US deaths belies the fact that it was a novel source of mortality that killed a lot of people who would not have died. Why in God's name would you not include that information?

"Dead wrong" is a pretty strong statement Jeff, but let me address your points specifically.

It is correct that for sake of brevity I did not include the "percent of expected deaths" column. But what additional information does this column truly contribute? Of course COVID death + standard deaths exceed 100% of expected standard deaths: COVID is assuredly killing people who would not have been expected to die without it, but I do not think that the table was trying to hide this self-obvious fact. The table prominently states that as of August 1, 2020 COVID alone had killed 143,000 people...

As to "Saying that Covid was just 9% of US deaths belies the fact that it was a novel source of mortality that killed a lot of people who would not have died" I will have to respectfully disagree:
  • First whether the source of mortality is new or old does not change the basic mathematical fact that it represents 9% of all deaths.
  • Second, no one disagrees, not is it implied, that these 9% would not have died without COVID.
In so many word, my points are factual. I suspect that your criticism is an emotional response to the fact that the data does not support your perspective.
The second issue is that direct comparisons on a graph showing weekly cases and weekly deaths are incorrect because Covid is a disease that takes up to a month to kill you, so there is a lag.

Here too, I will have to respectfully disagree. A lag takes place when two curves are essentially parallel but no synchronized in time. There is indeed a lag in mortality with COVID (I said it myself in my first post), and the graph shows this lag in the April / May mortality. But what the graph also shows - and which was the main point of my opening post - is that since mid June there has not been a lag, but a disconnect between the infection increase trend and the mortality decrease trend.

This too is factual.

1597108725977.png

The other problem is that Covid death counts are very incomplete because they can only be ascribed to Covid if there was a positive test. There were thousands of people who died of classic Covid symptoms but who never received a test. This was especially true in the beginning when test kits were in short supply but there is still a test shortage, and people die suddenly prior to testing. The rural medical examiners can't figure out that a post-mortum test might be important so they do not do them.

This is an interesting point, because there are credible narratives on both sides of the reporting issue. I do believe that some COVID death are likely to have gone under-reported in the early stages, but I also do believe that COVID deaths have been over-reported in the last couple months. I do believe that spike.t is quite correct:
As has been found out in quite a few countries if people tested positive that died, ... even if it wasn't the cause of death they were classified as dying from it...in uk people who died months after recovering or having tested positive with no symptoms ,even if run over by a bus were classified in the covid death figures. This was because the people sorting the figures out were looking at charts for people who had tested positive, and if it showed they had recently died even if months after recovery they were put on the list.....

Nonetheless, I believe that I have addressed this point in my addendum that graphed COVID + pneumonia + influenza deaths:

1597109389577.png


As I stated in my addendum post: "Here is what is interesting: even if the causes of deaths are voluntarily merged between COVID, pneumonia and influenza, this still does not change the overall story."

This too is factual.
1. The number of cases is increasing. The rate of increase has slowed in many areas (the Johns Hopkins coronavirus resource center is a great tool to visualize this) But every day there are more new cases in every State.

No one disputes this fact. The point that I argue is the disconnect between the infection increase trend (blue curve) and the mortality decrease trend (red or yellow curve if you want to consider COVID-only or COVID + Pneumonia + Influenza).

In so many words, yes there is a COVID crisis (infection cases) but my point about the reporting of this crisis in the "news" is the characterization of the outcome of the crisis (death cases).
2. The number of deaths has exceeded 155K and shows no signs of slowing.

Here too, I will have to respectfully disagree. The statement "The number of deaths ... shows no signs of slowing" is factually false. The sharp disconnect between the infection increase trend (blue curve) and the mortality decrease trend (red or yellow curve if you want to consider COVID-only or COVID + Pneumonia + Influenza) patently demonstrates that the mortality rate has decreased/slowed dramatically.
Most of those people would be alive had the Federal government responded appropriately. Having individual States work it out is like having a peeing section in a public pool.

Whether "most of those people would be alive" is pure speculation, and likely to be false. Factually, the initial response with strict States lockdowns, travel ban, construction of emergency military field hospitals, mobilization of Navy hospital ships, etc. was actually pretty decisive, political pundits notwithstanding.

But, speculation aside, this is an interesting issue when it comes to constitutional powers and public policy trade offs.

State vs. Federal Regulatory Powers

Although the federal government plays a large role in the public health system in the US (e.g. surveys, policies, laws and regulations, research, technical assistance and resources to state and local health systems, etc.) through delegated powers (the power to regulate interstate commerce and the power to tax and spend for the general welfare), it is a fact that healthcare remains primarily a State responsibility in the US. This was the constitutional argument in the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) litigation by the States...

Chances are that in the current political climate in the US, the Federal Government is likely "damned if it does" and "damned if it does not" roll out a national prescriptive response.............

Public policy trade-off
The sooner people start taking this seriously the sooner we get to hunt again. Put on those masks, and get distanced.

I believe that most people are taking this seriously, and I for one, out of a sense of civic discipline, dutifully wear a mask and respect social distancing. But the fundamental question is: what does it mean to "take this seriously"?

The bottom line is that most public policy decisions are trade-offs and compromises resulting from costs/benefits analysis, whether costs are financial or social, and I believe that this is where the main question lies in many people's mind: is the evolving response proportional to the evolving threat?

Let me illustrate:
  • On one hand: in 2020 (as of August 1) COVID killed 143,000 people in the US. The historically unprecedented response resulted in historical unemployment (17.4 million unemployed in June 2020, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) and historical expenses (the 4 relief bills totaled nearly $2.8 trillion and the bill currently discussed is likely to cost anywhere from $1 trillion to $3 trillion).
  • On the other hand: CDC reports that in 2019 in the US 2.9 million people died, with heart disease killing 647,000 people, cancer killing 599,000 people, chronic lower respiratory diseases killing 160,000 people, strokes killing 146,000 people, etc. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm). And these are decades-long trends for all these indicators!
Does this mean that we are not taking heart disease, cancer, chronic lower respiratory diseases and strokes seriously?

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Or could it possibly mean that the way COVID is reported in the "news" and how it is played in the pre-elections US political climate raise honest questions?

The facts appear to be that we are indeed continuing in the US to see an increase in the number of COVID CASES, while we are factually seeing a sharp decrease in the number of COVID DEATHS and it is only legitimate in a free country to use the data publicly provided to form one's own opinion as to whether the costs (financial and social) of the evolving COVID response is proportional to the evolving COVID threat.

In my $0.02 worth, COVID should not be under-played, but it should not be over-played for political benefit either...
 
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D

Deleted member 43267

Points one and two. I was talking about mortality and you are talking about mortality rate. The mortality rate has dropped because physicians now can keep people alive who, at the beginning, would have died. But if mortality rate is halved, and the number of cases triples you get more deaths. That curve of deaths through time is ascending and not flattening at all.

Point three: the Federal government offered no coherent response. I will let history be the judge of that. I would like to see the U.S. commission a covid report just like we did for 9/11.

There was a comment that the death rate from covid is inflated because a positive case gets hit by a bus and is counted. My daughter is an epidemiologist. She runs a State covid center. One of her biggest concerns in undercounting (the rural medical examiners who fail to test deceased individuals who had all signs of covid). FYI I asked her to join the forum and explain things to people. Her response was that she has been doing just that 7 days a week for months, and no one will listen. But her critique of the analysis was the basis for my post. We talk epidemiology a lot and every phone call for months has been centered on this topic. We are both trained in stats.

I think the thing that has been missed is that when you compare strokes, cardiac incidents, and cancer with covid you have to consider that yes, they have killed more people annually. But they do not do it all at one time in big giant spike. The problem there is that those deaths were preventable and they overwhelmed the health care system. Don't get me started on that one. There were actually mortalities that went down during Covid: fewer murders, fewer car accidents (people stopped driving), and there ended up being less flu because enough people stayed home just enough to cut it back. Covid was more infectious so it still spread under those conditions. But undercounting is a far bigger problem than overcounting, and overcounting is not a deliberate attempt to make things seem worse. They are worse enough so that no one would have to do that.

My comment about people not taking this seriously is totally unscientific. It's just that where ever I go, I see people that seem oblivious. Mom, Dad, and the five kids going shopping, no masks, and the kids are running around touching everything. People telling me that when Jesus comes for you it is your time so it does not matter if you wear one. States opening up, only to have case clusters appear right on schedule right where you would predict them. A barbecue of 50 people packed under a tent, no masks. it does not take a lot of that to support a pandemic. If everyone toed the line the virus would have no where to go, it would drop off within a month, and we could all go hunting again, at least by 2021. I do think there will be a vaccine, but it will take months to distribute it, and half the people won't take it anyway because it will have a 5G chip in every dose. behaviors will change only when enough people have experienced covid, or know someone personally who has died and gotten really, really sick. Until then people will not listen. They will eventually, but not before a lot of preventable suffering.

I will end with my fav comment: if you don't like the mask you will hate the ventilator. The odds are that most forum members will not get covid because people who have enough resources to hunt in Africa are not likely to be working on the line in a meat packing plant, and most forum members are too old to be packing into bars filled with riotous spring breakers. But is it worth the risk? Perhaps the worst part of this will be the debilitating conditions that show up after a severe case. That will trash not only your 2020 and 2021 hunts, but perhaps many more after that.
 
 

 

 

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