Politics

[WAB]

Back in the Middle East, with little fanfare the Saudis have the east-west pipe back to full capacity at 7 MM BPD, 5 for export, 2 for refining in country. This pipe moves crude to Yanbu, as opposed to Ras Tanura. This crude bypasses the Straight of Hormuz. The Saudis have long term plans to increase capacity to Yanbu, reducing the importance of the straight.

 

[Tanks]

One of my favorite movie lines of all time. I have actually used it in contract negotiations when I had the upper hand.

 

[mdwest]

Well Trump needs to go to congress to get approval by 5/1 as his 60 days is up - it will be interesting to see how this goes forward.

and.... like I said on Monday... 5/1 means nothing at all...

He was asked on the whitehouse lawn this morning if he intended on seeking congresional authorization now that we're on day 60.. and he told the press corps absolutely not.. and made the same arguments that Clinton and Obama did.. its unconstitutional.. precedent for ignoring set by prior presidents that did not seek congressional approval.. there is a ceasefire in place which resets the clock.. etc..etc..

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Couldn’t he also just call and end to operation epic furry call it a success and then turn around and start operation Tangerine Hammer or What ever else he dreams up for a name and start the sixty day clock again ?

 

[mdwest]

Couldn’t he also just call and end to operation epic furry call it a success and then turn around and start operation Tangerine Hammer or What ever else he dreams up for a name and start the sixty day clock again ?

thats also another tactic...

the WPR has more holes in it than a block of swiss cheese.. its basically worthless..

 

[Brent in Az]

Operation Orange Thunder has a nice ring to it.....

 

[steve white]

Operation Orange Thunder has a nice ring to it.....

Or Orange Crush.

 

[Red Leg]

The bill Johnson allowed a vote on this week is the exact same bill the Senate passed a month ago. Johnson wanted to pass it when the Senate did. The freedom caucus wouldn't let him. They could have passed it then and still started the reconciliation process to fun ICE etc.

The original shutdown is absolutely caused by Democrats. The last month delay in partial funding has been the fault of conservatives in the House. They knew a month ago that they couldn't get Democrats to change their position and that they would need to use reconciliation. Both things are true.

That is essentially correct, but rather incomplete don't you think? As relentlessly chronicled by John Fetterman, the last sane democrat, his party could have ended the shutdown on any one of the last 76 days. Johnson did indeed have to get those votes from the Freedom Caucus which I would heartily agree contains some of the least effective members of the party - something of counterpoint to the Squad wing of the left. But the democrats could have achieved what they are going to now get on any one of those 76 days. The height of performative politics is to demonstrate intransigence with zero results. I hope all the blue haired, snot ringed, May Day demonstrators and their soy boys feel a sense of real achievement today.

 

[Russ16]

That is essentially correct, but rather incomplete don't you think? As relentlessly chronicled by John Fetterman, the last sane democrat, his party could have ended the shutdown on any one of the last 76 days. Johnson did indeed have to get those votes from the Freedom Caucus which I would heartily agree contains some of the least effective members of the party - something of counterpoint to the Squad wing of the left. But the democrats could have achieved what they are going to now get on any one of those 76 days. The height of performative politics is to demonstrate intransigence with zero results. I hope all the blue haired, snot ringed, May Day demonstrators and their soy boys feel a sense of real achievement today.

Yes the democrats could have compromised earlier. And they carry the overwhelming bulk of the blame for the shutdown.

But it is also true that house republicans held out for an extra 30 days and achieved nothing by doing so. And everyone knew they would achieve nothing. Even they did. I know because I talked to a lot of them about it over the last 30 days.

In the meantime it served as a distraction from advancing the republican agenda in a year with limited legislative days.

 

[jruby]

and.... like I said on Monday... 5/1 means nothing at all...

He was asked on the whitehouse lawn this morning if he intended on seeking congresional authorization now that we're on day 60.. and he told the press corps absolutely not.. and made the same arguments that Clinton and Obama did.. its unconstitutional.. precedent for ignoring set by prior presidents that did not seek congressional approval.. there is a ceasefire in place which resets the clock.. etc..etc..

Yes, thats what he says, we will see how it plays out. He also supposedly stated the Iran war was terminated today.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

 

[Brent in Az]

A FOX news poll shows Dems leading on the economy heading into the midterms. I find this highly questionable, since they were the ones that destroyed it during Bidens 4 years, and will do absolutely nothing to make it better
I still stand behind what I said that this Iran war should have waited until after the midterms. I think Trump opened Pandora's box, with fuel prices, and the collateral effects, being a pretty hot button topic amongst the voters right now.
With the redistricting rulings from the courts, and the gerrymandering looking to possibly favor the Republicans, we had a very legitimate shot at retaining control of both chambers.
Now. . . I'm not so certain.

 

[Killingtime]

One of my favorite movie lines of all time. I have actually used it in contract negotiations when I had the upper hand.

in the book the godfather he had a similar line when negotiating with the families “there’s no talking with this man he’s being unreasonable” it ment he’s about to end you lol

 

[Red Leg]

The US has apparently moved on from Ukraine, but the Ukrainians certainly haven't. The narrative for the last couple of years by the naysayers was that the Russians were heedless of casualties and would inevitably overrun whatever they wanted to take. Quietly, that bit of strategic fantasy seems to have finally died during last year's largely aborted Russian offensives - at least those fantasies have died for everyone but the isolationist right and Putin's useful idiots, which with respect to this topic, may unfortunately include Trump and his Vice President. This year's winter/spring efforts by Russia were not only stopped, but Ukraine has gradually begun to retake some strategic ground in the East and South. Russian casualties, 1200-1400 a day, remain at what are for even Russia unsustainable levels. At the same time, Ukraine's strategic economic bombardment of Russia's petrochemical industry continues to accelerate.

I genuinely feel Putin has maneuvered himself into a position from which he has no good way to extract himself. Barring an ever less likely Ukrainian collapse, his only face and perhaps regime saving hope is likely, and to my mind unfortunately, Trump.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1t1mhj2/the_fires_at_the_rosneft_tuapse_oil_refinery_are

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1t1778l/tuapse_everything_is_fine

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1t08ec5/a_clear_unobstructed_angle_of_the_fire_at_the

 

[PHOENIX PHIL]

The US has apparently moved on from Ukraine, but the Ukrainians certainly haven't. The narrative for the last couple of years by the naysayers was that the Russians were heedless of casualties and would inevitably overrun whatever they wanted to take. Quietly, that bit of strategic fantasy seems to have finally died during last year's largely aborted Russian offensives - at least those fantasies have died for everyone but the isolationist right and Putin's useful idiots, which with respect to this topic, may unfortunately include Trump and his Vice President. This year's winter/spring efforts by Russia were not only stopped, but Ukraine has gradually begun to retake some strategic ground in the East and South. Russian casualties, 1200-1400 a day, remain at what are for even Russia unsustainable levels. At the same time, Ukraine's strategic economic bombardment of Russia's petrochemical industry continues to accelerate.

I genuinely feel Putin has maneuvered himself into a position from which he has no good way to extract himself. Barring an ever less likely Ukrainian collapse, his only face and perhaps regime saving hope is likely, and to my mind unfortunately, Trump.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1t1mhj2/the_fires_at_the_rosneft_tuapse_oil_refinery_are

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1t1778l/tuapse_everything_is_fine

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1t08ec5/a_clear_unobstructed_angle_of_the_fire_at_the

General,

I've held the opinion now for awhile that if Russia wants to bleed itself dry in this Charlie Foxtrot invasion of Ukraine, let them. I realize that this really sucks for the Ukrainians as well as the average Russian being forced into military service who wants nothing to do with this war, but I also know we didn't create this problem. So I'm not terribly inclined to solve it either.

Prior to Putin's war he started, it's not like Ukraine was a close ally. Perhaps not an enemy, but more of a useful prior enemy, in that they were a stick in Putin's eye. Had the invasion been more successful for Russia and truly did represent an increased threat to NATO, that would be different. But it hasn't, and has been argued many times and I think all agree, this has cost Russia greatly. It has set them back years and more likely decades.

Now in light of the war in Iran, would it be wise to stretch our military resources further by now upping our support of Ukraine?

I see nothing in your post or @375 Ruger Fan's post to suggest that Russia isn't marching its way to collapse. So outside of the humanitarian tragedy which I mean not to diminish, why stop them?

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

Perhaps because your country signed a treaty to do exactly that when Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in the 90s

 

[mdwest]

Perhaps because your country signed a treaty to do exactly that when Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal in the 90s

The Budapest memorandum isn’t a defense treaty and was very intentionally worded loosely with zero guarantees of anything from any parties involved…

they stopped WAY short of anything that even loosely resembles a treaty…

It contains assurances from all countries involved… but nothing is legally binding…

 

[Tubby’s Canteen]

The Budapest memorandum isn’t a defense treaty and was very intentionally worded loosely with zero guarantees of anything from any parties involved…

they stopped WAY short of anything that even loosely resembles a treaty…

So the long and short of it is the Brit’s and yanks bullshited the Ukrainians into giving up there nuclear deterrent ?

 

[skydiver386]

The average Russian in Moscow has little feeling for a contract volunteer from the Tuva region. To their way of thinking, if millions of lives are spent gaining a few meters of ground in Ukraine, so much the better, as it rids Russia of unwanted minorities, and leaves room for settlement of Ethnic Russians.

The most likely scenario given the current trajectory of the war is Russia will attempt to consolidate its gains by settling ethnic Russians into the parts of Ukraine it now controls, and forcing residents to obtain Russian I.D., Passports, etc. Spending on the war will slow, but not stop for the foreseeable future.

Ukraine will take back most of what it lost, but it will be a slow, bloody slog for them. My prayers are with the people of Ukraine.

 

[mdwest]

So the long and short of it is the Brit’s and yanks bullshited the Ukrainians into giving up there nuclear deterrent ?

As well as the Russians…. Sort of….

The Ukrainians didn’t have a choice… the memorandum was more of a save face maneuver than anything else…

Just like no one was going to tolerate a nuclear Iran… no one wanted a nuclear Ukraine… if they didn’t sign, there would have been consequences…

You also have to remember that Ukraine never had a nuclear deterrent… the warheads were physically on Ukrainian soil.. but Russia after the collapse of the USSR retained all of the launch codes for the missiles and most of the infrastructure related to the missiles and the detonation codes for the warheads…

When the BM was signed all of the warheads went back to Russia….