Politics

[Wheels]

The Iranians have not and can not "close" the strait. Their navy is non existent and I suspect their fleets of small boats didn't stand up well to cruise missiles loaded with hundreds of submunitions (rather like lethal hail). They have mines, but it takes a pretty large craft to carry and set them. What is still a threat are the subsonic drones like the shahad. Many of those have been destroyed in their storage locations, but some are no doubt at firing points. As a result, they might be able to hit a tanker even if escorted.

As a result, it is the insurance companies that have effectively closed the strait. Hopefully some sort of convoy system can be established once the Iranian stockpiles have been further attritted over the next few days where destroyers are able to manage the odd attempt to strike a commercial ship.

Agree completely. Iran has not shut down the straits. Lloyds of London has. The straits are an actuarial problem. Until they reevaluate and reprice the risk on a per trip basis they remain closed to any ship owner who buys insurance.

 

[mark-hunter]

S/D

Sorry, but what is S/D?

 

[mark-hunter]

It is critical that it remain operational and the straight be reopened.

Agreed.

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Sorry, but what is S/D?

Shut Down, I think.

 

[fourfive8]

Use of little-used, insider based or uncommon acronyms is both rude and dismissive.

 

[mark-hunter]

Are we really entering ww3?

First Ukraine? 2022. 4 years ongoing. No signs of truce any time soon.

Now large regional conflict in the gulf, Iran.

Step by step, major war operations spread globally.

While I am still trying to comfort myself of things will end with negotiations and at the diplomatic table, at one point, this can also be a "boiling frog" effect.
I am not sure what to think?

Any thoughts?

For comparison: This is the time frame as it was developing in ww2. Heating up for ten years. Boiling frog.
It did not start all of a sudden in 1939.

10 years until all countries went in.

Sept 18, 1931: Japan invades Manchuria, marking an early phase of Asian conflict.
Jan 30, 1933: Adolf Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany.
Nov 25, 1936: Germany and Japan sign the Anti-Comintern Pact, uniting against the Soviet Union.
July 7, 1937: Japan invades China (start of Second Sino-Japanese War).
March 12, 1938: Germany annexes Austria (Anschluss).
Sept 30, 1938: Munich Agreement allows Germany to annex the Sudetenland.
Sept 1, 1939: Germany invades Poland; Britain and France declare war on Sept 3.
May 10, 1940: Germany launches its blitzkrieg invasion of France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Sept 27, 1940: The Tripartite Pact is signed, formally aligning Germany, Italy, and Japan.
June 22, 1941: Germany launches Operation Barbarossa, invading the Soviet Union.
Dec 7, 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, bringing the US into the war.

 

[mdwest]

It would seem to me that any larger Iranian navy ships remaining would be easy pickings for a U.S. fast attack submarine, no?

reportedly they have zero left...

they started the conflict with 12 frigates and corvettes.. their largest ships.. supposedly all 12 are at the bottom of the gulf of Oman now.. everything else they have are more or less large ocean going boats (fast attack craft, patrol boats, etc)..

what I havent seen any reliable reporting on is whats going on with their submarines.. they have a fleet of just under 20 diesel subs I believe.. most are "midget" subs.. but still capable of firing torpedos.. Im not a navy guy.. but my understanding is they are pretty piss poor boats compared to what most modern navy's sail.. North Korean designed and built.. more of a threat to commercial shipping than they would be to a US or most European warships.. but.. they do have a few Kilo Class subs as well.. 70's era soviet boats.. while dated, they have sub to sub capability, sub to surface capability, etc..

Ive got to believe we've been hunting their sub fleet pretty hard.. but I havent found anything on any reliable news source saying we've sunk a kilo or a midget sub.. there are a few less than reliable news sources claiming that we took out a kilo and a few midgets though..

 

[mdwest]

Are we really entering ww3?

First Ukraine? 2022. 4 years ongoing. No signs of truce any time soon.

Now large regional conflict in the gulf, Iran.

Step by step, major war operations spread globally.

While I am still trying to comfort myself of things will end with negotiations and at the diplomatic table, at one point, this can also be a "boiling frog" effect.
I am not sure what to think?

Any thoughts?

For comparison: This is the time frame as it was developing in ww2. Heating up for ten years. Boiling frog.
It did not start all of a sudden in 1939.

10 years until all countries went in.

Sept 18, 1931: Japan invades Manchuria, marking an early phase of Asian conflict.
Jan 30, 1933: Adolf Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany.
Nov 25, 1936: Germany and Japan sign the Anti-Comintern Pact, uniting against the Soviet Union.
July 7, 1937: Japan invades China (start of Second Sino-Japanese War).
March 12, 1938: Germany annexes Austria (Anschluss).
Sept 30, 1938: Munich Agreement allows Germany to annex the Sudetenland.
Sept 1, 1939: Germany invades Poland; Britain and France declare war on Sept 3.
May 10, 1940: Germany launches its blitzkrieg invasion of France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Sept 27, 1940: The Tripartite Pact is signed, formally aligning Germany, Italy, and Japan.
June 22, 1941: Germany launches Operation Barbarossa, invading the Soviet Union.
Dec 7, 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, bringing the US into the war.

I dont think so..

to be another World War, we'd have to have large scale coalitions fighting against each other in a global environment.. what we have now is a single country (Russia) fighting against another single country (Ukraine)... where both countries are being supported with munitions and arms from their allies.. and then we have Iran.. which Russia and China will condemn the US and Israel's involvement in.. but ultimately wont get involved themselves in directly (they may try to find indirect ways to support)... most of the world wants Iran in its current capacity to cease to exist and certainly every country in its region wants it to cease to exist.. getting involved in directly supporting Iran turns pretty much every other nation on the planet against you.. its a losers bet.. and China and Russia both know it..

I would also speculate that the US will cease operations in Iran in 6 weeks or less... at the rate things are going there will be no viable targets left to bomb, and Iran will have completely depleted itself of its stockpiles.. and key people that have the ability to actually lead the country will for the most part be dead.. I dont think we have to have a negotiated peace agreement.. if Iran has no ships, has no oil infrastructure, has no aircraft, has no ballistic missiles, its banking apparatus is completely destroyed, etc.. etc.. they find themselves about 2 rungs up the ladder from Afghanistan.. really only a threat to their own people.. so.. the US and Israel just walk away when they are ready to..

That doesnt mean there will be regime change.. Im not sure the people of Iran have the tools, or ultimately the desire to take on what will remain of the IRGC and the Basij.. but.. the ability for the IRGC and Basij to function outside of Irans borders, and the money for them to be able to fund outside groups will be gone.. so.. the US and Israel's mission will be complete with all objectives achieved.. (not just pushing Iran back 20+ years.. but also delivering a kick to Chinas economic balls, Russias war machine, etc.. in the process)..

 

[Red Leg]

reportedly they have zero left...

they started the conflict with 12 frigates and corvettes.. their largest ships.. supposedly all 12 are at the bottom of the gulf of Oman now.. everything else they have are more or less large ocean going boats (fast attack craft, patrol boats, etc)..

what I havent seen any reliable reporting on is whats going on with their submarines.. they have a fleet of just under 20 diesel subs I believe.. most are "midget" subs.. but still capable of firing torpedos.. Im not a navy guy.. but my understanding is they are pretty piss poor boats compared to what most modern navy's sail.. North Korean designed and built.. more of a threat to commercial shipping than they would be to a US or more European warships.. but.. they do have a few Kilo Class subs as well.. 70's era soviet boats.. while dated, they have sub to sub capability, sub to surface capability, etc..

Ive got to believe we've been hunting their sub fleet pretty hard.. but I havent found anything on any reliable news source saying we've sunk a kilo or a midget sub.. there are a few less than reliable news sources claiming that we took out a kilo and a few midgets though..

They have three Kilo Class boats which, if operational, are a pretty good Soviet era diesel electric boat. However, at the start of this conflict all three were out of service at best going through drydock refit, and at worst simply rusting away. As @mdwest notes, their domestically produced boats are not a lot better than the Hunley.

 

[spike.t]

As my father used to say.." they couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery, "....

Why Europe's leaders have struggled to speak as one on Iran

European nations say they want to work better together but have differing priorities

www.bbc.com

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

Use of little-used, insider based or uncommon acronyms is both rude and dismissive.

What does RoP stand for? In the oil industry it stands for Rate of Penetration and is very commonly used by drillers.

 

[spike.t]

Fkn correct...but I would have preferred if he came up with someone way lower down the pecking order to compare fk piece starmer to...

Trump on Starmer: 'Not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with'

President Donald Trump criticised Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the UK's initial response to US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

www.bbc.com

 

[spike.t]

What does RoP stand for? In the oil industry it stands for Rate of Penetration and is very commonly used by drillers.

View attachment 750378

Mmm...OK so not the adult film industry then....I was obviously mistaken

 

[Brent in Az]

What does RoP stand for? In the oil industry it stands for Rate of Penetration and is very commonly used by drillers.

View attachment 750378

Republic of the Philippines

 

[Sideshow]

I saw an interview with some Iran official on BBC tv news last night who said there were US troops in the hotel! That’s why it was hit. To other hits answer that oh those were CIA headquarters in the area.
If I could find the interview I’d post it.

After Spike T guardian post above I can understand why the gulf states are getting pissed with reckless drone and missiles.

Must apologise to the BBC I got it wrong. Was channel 4 news.
Here’s the clip. From the 28m mark.

 

[Wheels]

Before the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs, Trump would have just jacked up fees another 25%. Now he says he will cut all trade with Spain for not allowing use of American bases in Spain.

There are probably a ton of phone calls from Madrid to Foggy Bottom at the moment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/trump-threatens-to-cut-off-trade-after-spain-denies-air-base-use

 

[Tundra Tiger]

Use of little-used, insider based or uncommon acronyms is both rude and dismissive.

Rude and dismissive? I see it as an opportunity to learn something new.

 

[Wheels]

Does this mean the vote to choose a new Supreme Leader is now Dead-locked.

 

[jeanes]

Iran has been a disease to the region for the last 30 years, and more. Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen, ISIS/L, AQ, militias in the western hemisphere, and the list goes on. Iran has their evil hands in all of them.

I've seen some of the intel briefs in the last year. Iran, AQ, Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS and others have all been working together. Supposedly, they are really chummy with Hamza Bin Laden. Who is still alive, regardless of what the CIA says.

I don't love what's going on. Not a fan of any war, really. However, it was coming to this sooner or later. If it didn't, the problem would have gotten out of hand.

Once again, it's us having to clean up the mess.

Sorry, my fat fingers hit the wrong button.

 

[thoma018]

What do you think ?