But some questions remain...will China and Russia use Venezuela as an excuse to further ambitious action..? Will China move on Taiwan..what then Mr.Trump..? If Trump move on Greenland will Putin try to take Svalbard..? I can almost hear Putin... " Hey..you complain on us in Ukraine but look at what you do in the Americas..! ".
My estimate:
Yes, but not as an excuse. There must have been some diplomatic deals made not made public.
For example, China sold their interests in Panama, without a flinch. Basically within 24 hours.
My opinion is that we are witnessing tectonic political global changes, from mono polar world of pax americana, to multi polar world, with divided spheres on interest of major global powers.
In 20th century this caused two world wars.
Modern difference is nuclear deterrent, which makes major powers to be more cautions in their multilateral relations. Which gives us a chance to avoid major conflict.
Taiwan?
So, when Mao took China mainland, Chang Kei Shek moved to Taiwan, as goverment in exile and declared de iure (but not de facto) his goverment to be goverment for China mainland and Taiwan as one country .
Mao claimed the same.
So, it is not disputable that Taiwan and China are one country. It is the question of ruling regime here and there.
President Nixon accepted one China principle. It stayed like that
The rest we know from daily news, and developing political military tensions.
Besides,
China had similar things elsewhere, Hong Kong for example.
For China it is not unusual to have "special case provinces", but entire international political focus makes Taiwan high political tensions live for decades.
For Hong Kong they just waited their 156 years, to take over, UK pulled out, China took over, and Hong Kong still has some autonomy, but it is Chinese on the end
Chinese culture and attitude and philosophy is different than western.
Western approach is short term, like in one political term 4 years, or project investement turnover, or what will be in next decade?
China is one of the oldest countries in the World, 5000 years old. Older then Chrisitanity for example.
Chinese philosophy sees a thousand years as a blink of an eye. Decade is nothing. For Honk Kong they took their time, 156 years to wait, not loosing focus and time was never an object, and no issue. Diplomacy worked. No bullet fired.
So, in short term I dont think they will provoke any conflict. But they may take a military posture. However they might wait next 100 years, to make political and de facto move on Taiwan.
Time means nothing in Chinese philosophy, and in the same time global politics is very dynamic. Eventually they will get to politically convenient time to make the move
