Is civil war possible in America

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by D.M.V, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. Von Gruff

    Von Gruff AH ENABLER GOLD SUPPORTER AH Legend

    Joined:
    May 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,539
    Video/Photo:
    907
    Likes Received:
    2,819
    Hunted:
    New Zealand, Austaralia
    October 13, 2019
    Do We Owe the Kurds a War?
    By Tom Trinko
    At first glance, we should be protecting the Kurds from the Turks. But after fighting in the Middle East for decades, we need to do a deep dive before committing America to another war there.

    We don't know what information Donald Trump based his decision on. If he had intel that Turkey was going in with or without our approval, then removing our troops would be the only way that Trump could ensure we didn't get into a war with Turkey. Once Turkey killed Americans, it would be hard to avoid a conflict, even if, after the conflict had started and Americans were dying, Americans changed their minds.

    Even without that intel, the Turkish leader is a would-be dictator and strongman, hence any brinkmanship by Trump could result in a war. Dictators are much fonder of wars that unify their countries than are the leaders of truly democratic countries. The reality is that any pushback against the Turks could have a high probability of getting America into a major conflict with Turkey and possibly Russia.

    Given that Turkey is close to Russia both geographically and politically, any U.S. attack on Turkey could end up driving Turkey out of NATO and into an alignment with Russia and Iran. That could lead to a war between the U.S. and Russia, which would be a very bad thing according to the people who ponder such things.

    Not to mention that since Turkey is currently part of NATO, it's conceivable that Europe would side, at least diplomatically, with Turkey to avoid Turkey unleashing millions of refugees on Europe.

    While the Kurds have been fighting the good fight, does anyone outside the Beltway think the American people would support hundreds if not thousands of Americans dying and spending trillions of dollars to protect the Kurds against the Turks?

    If the American people don't think the Kurds are worth dying for, then a president who got us into a war to protect the Kurds would be going against America's interests. Iraq has shown us that a war that doesn't result in a stable peace, a war that we withdraw from prematurely, is worse than no war at all in most cases.

    We know that the U.S. is sharing intel with the Kurds since we warned them of upcoming Turkish attacks. We could also be providing them with the weapons they need to fight off the Turks. Remember the Afghans managed to fight off the Soviet Union, which was much more powerful than Turkey is now, with just intelligence and weapons from the U.S.

    Also, we should keep in mind that the Kurds aren't confined to the parts of Syria Turkey might be moving into. If the net result of Turkey's actions is that the Kurds are restricted to the territory they control in Iraq, that wouldn't be the end of the world.

    If Bush's liberation of Iraq taught us anything it's that the people of the Middle East don't think the way we do. We thought we'd be treated as liberators when we overthrew Saddam, yet we ended up being hated by the very people we'd freed. The Kurds would be unlikely to be that ungrateful, but the simple reality is that even if we did fight Turkey and win with little in the way of casualties, the consequences could be long-term and severe.

    While the neocons who are condemning Trump for this are consistent — they've been for fighting overseas for ages — most of the people who are criticizing Trump are simply attacking him because they attack anything he does.

    The same leftists who are saying Trump is a monster for letting down the Kurds applauded Obama running away from Iraq even though it set the stage for the rise of ISIS. Similarly, when Obama overthrew the government of Libya and then left the country to descend into chaos and terrorism, the voices of the Left found no reason to critique him.

    One doesn't have to be an isolationist to argue that America has no obligation to wage a war to defend the Kurds.

    While it's true that the Kurds have done a great job fighting ISIS, which has helped America, they fought ISIS not out of charity, but for their own survival. We don't owe the Kurds anything, given that without U.S. support, the Kurds would still be fighting Saddam.

    That doesn't mean it's wrong to fight a war for them against the Turks, but it certainly means we're not morally obligated to do so.

    After all, the folks who are condemning Trump over this aren't calling for the U.S. to start a war against China in order to protect the people of Hong Kong or to liberate the million-plus people China has in concentration camps, many of whom are used for involuntary organ donations.

    With China taking a more and more imperialistic role in the world backed by a rapidly growing military, can the U.S. afford to spend vast sums of money to protect the Kurds rather than to build up our military to deter Chinese imperialism?

    While we all feel the desire to protect the Kurds from the Turks, the simple reality is that anything beyond supplying them with intelligence and the weapons they need to defend themselves is simply a bridge too far, given what the American people want.

    Without knowing what tools Trump used to try to dissuade the Turks from attacking the Kurds, we can't know for sure if more could have been done without taking a serious risk that a war would occur, so it's impossible to say at this time if Trump could have done more.

    But given the attitude of the American people about wars that don't directly protect them, it's hard to say Trump is being a bad president by not risking another endless war in the Middle East.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/10/do_we_owe_the_kurds_a_war.html
     
    Shootist43, D.M.V, Wheels and 2 others like this.

  2. Red Leg

    Red Leg AH ENABLER LIFETIME BRONZE BENEFACTOR AH Legend

    Joined:
    May 19, 2009
    Messages:
    4,128
    Video/Photo:
    232
    Likes Received:
    8,608
    Location:
    Texas Hill Country
    Member of:
    SCI DSC life memberships / NRA Patron Life
    Hunted:
    Mexico, Namibia, RSA, Germany, Austria, Argentina, Canada, Mozambique, Spain, US (15 states)
    I don't even want to get into all of this here on this forum.

    It is indeed extremely complicated and I have spent much of my professional life dealing with the Arab world. I am an Arab speaker (Defense Language and Foreign Service institutes) and a product of an Army sponsored Fellowship at the Walsh School (Contemporary Arab Studies) Georgetown University. I have been retired a while, so my Arabic is a bit rusty.

    I do not pretend to have an answer for the issues plaguing the region, but I do have a little actual experience with them. I was among those who supported our intervention in Afghanistan (what choice did we have?), and could not fathom why we would invade Iraq, and if we were going to do it, why would do it with such inadequate forces. A discussion for another time, but much of that decision process had to do with the hubris of the two old men sitting in the Defense Department and the Old Executive Office building. Both of them, I would argue, paid far too much attention to Paul Wolfowitz and not nearly enough to Colin Powell. I would agree with Foxi that our treaty relationship with Turkey is indeed an ever more archaic legacy of the cold war. If we were going to use that relationship for anything, leveraging it to keep them out of Syria would have seemed most logical to me and apparently also to the President's own National Security Council.

    For the moment, the Kurds have successfully created a semi-autonomous Kurdistan. In the long run, Iran, Turkey, Syria, not Iraq will not want to tolerate it, though its existence is likely actually in the interests of all four by "defueling" the whole independence movement. The Turks are taking advantage of sudden feckless American leadership to move into Northern Syria to extend military control into area where they can hamstring Kurdish military power among other objectives. That sort of power play supports both Iranian and Russian interests in the region. Could we have a brokered a long-term political settlement - I truly don't know, though we were pretty far along that path up until recently.

    We and our allies are still, and will be for the foreseeable future, directly and indirectly dependent upon stable access to the Arab oil markets. That is not the position of a Neocon - it is the position of an economic realist. Neither ISIS, nor Russian, nor Iranian, nor Turkish regional aspirations are particularly conducive to such stability. And before someone waves the energy independence flag (a worthy aspiration), the president had to authorize release of our strategic oil reserves just a few weeks ago to maintain market stability. We are and will be decisively engaged in the Middle East for deep into the foreseeable future. Abandoning allies hasn't worked well for us. At the end of the Gulf War we encouraged the Shia in Iraq to rebel against Sadam Hussein. We then stood on our side of the ceasefire line and watch the remnants of the Republican Guard slaughter them. When we invaded twenty years later, they owed us a blood debt and were a major component behind much of the guerrilla war that plagued us for the next decade.

    And none of this has anything to do with going to war to defend the Kurds. The Turks were never about to seriously threaten US casualties or use force in Syria (or potentially in Iraq) unless they sensed a green light through either a cooperative or inattentive US president. I still can't believe he actually said "they didn't help us at Normandy" to a group of educated people and that it was broadcast to a national audience.

    I am going to bow out of this discussion. I'll simply leave it that the President, seemingly acting without any consultation with his own advisers who actually know something about the region, has decided to walk away from our most loyal ally during the Iraq insurgency and battle with ISIS. I believe that we eventually will pay a price because for it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2019

  3. USMA84DAB

    USMA84DAB AH Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2019
    Messages:
    94
    Video/Photo:
    14
    Likes Received:
    92
    Location:
    Kansas City, MO area
    Member of:
    NRA Life Member
    Hunted:
    MO, CO
    Off topic!
     

  4. Jfet

    Jfet AH Elite

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2013
    Messages:
    1,174
    Video/Photo:
    55
    Likes Received:
    1,482
    Member of:
    Outdoor Tomorrow Foundation,NRA, Life Member DSC
    Hunted:
    Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Namibia, South Africa, and Now Spain
    History starts when you are born. Every event before you are born is ancient history. It is tempting to look at the events taking place today because that is our history and say it is as bad as it has ever been. This video may lead you to believe that the events of today are just normal for the U. S. Hang in there, good days will outnumber bad days. (y)(y)(y)

     

  5. Red Leg

    Red Leg AH ENABLER LIFETIME BRONZE BENEFACTOR AH Legend

    Joined:
    May 19, 2009
    Messages:
    4,128
    Video/Photo:
    232
    Likes Received:
    8,608
    Location:
    Texas Hill Country
    Member of:
    SCI DSC life memberships / NRA Patron Life
    Hunted:
    Mexico, Namibia, RSA, Germany, Austria, Argentina, Canada, Mozambique, Spain, US (15 states)
    The bitter conflict between John Adams’s Federalists and the Thomas Jefferson led Democratic Republicans is worth studying as well. The only time the country was more divided was shortly before Southern secession. The Federalist-Democrat struggle was truly a political conflict not characterized so much by regions (though important) as much as ideology. It is also hopeful to note that the great antagonists eventually reconciled, sharing a brilliant, often touching, correspondence Until they both died on July 4, 1826.
     
    Jfet likes this.

Share This Page

 
  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice