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I should have perhaps added the disclaimer that my statements should not be seen as anything other than speculation as well.

Indeed, none of the people I spoke to, "know the truth". However for people who have positions on energy markets totalling in the multiple billions of euro's, they better get market signals right.

So I'll just repeat the facts we do know:
- Russia has been fighting for years to get Nordstream 1 & 2 online. It's their baby for many years, to get around having to export through Ukraine.
- Russia puts the gas on the pipe, so if they did not want to export using these pipes, they just don't pump any gas in it.
- NS1&2 being out, means that either LNG has to come from abroad (from the US for the most part lately) if there is no agreement on the Ukraine question. Or if there would be an agreement between EU/Ukraine/Russia, the gas would need to be pumped via Ukraine pipe like it was in the past.
- markets reacted barely to the news. Not having the gas come through NS1 was already priced in a few months ago. Nothing changes to the balance for this winter. So any veiled threat by Russia on the other pipelines, completely missed its mark (there is something to be said for the collective hidden intelligence of free markets that have a habit of making predictions quite accurately)

So the potential suspects are
1. Russia
2. Europe (or rather one or more specific countries within the EU)
3. US
4. Ukraine with the help of private contractors.
5. Aliens/the Kraken did it

For Russia, with the above facts in mind, the only possible reason for them to do so, is to make a veiled threat towards Norwegian pipelines. But why execute on their own pipe, make everyone and their grandmother alert on the possibility and therefore make the next try on other pipes that much harder? They already brought deliveries via the Nordstream 1 pipe down to zero. This veiled threat however had zero increased risk premium on gas, while it should. It could be however that markets are just broken by now, and do not know anymore what is up and down (real possibility).

The EU, I believe someone mentioned that only France/Germany/UK have such capability, they could have done it as a "burning bridges" kind of play. A big middle finger to Putin, to show him that there is no way Russia will ever be able to profit easily from their gas sales to Europe again. It makes a lot of sense for some EU actors to have done it. But if this winter people are freezing in their homes and it gets out that some government on the national level, or decided in Brussels on the EU level, in the former we will see those national governments go down from public outcry, while in the latter the European Union risks being fractured permanently.

The US, burning bridges for Europe, forcing Europe to no longer muddle along, but actually get hard on Russia and provide more military assistance, etc. Meanwhile they would profit from higher LNG sales (not only to Europe, but overall the LNG market would remain tight for many more years, so any volume of LNG would be higher priced in the coming years, in the absence of NS1&2). I'm sure however they would not have done so without silent agreement from at least France and Germany. I do agree with you @Red Leg, it does not look like typical modus operandi from the US. However, perhaps Biden (or someone in his administration) forced such a drastic operation.

The Ukraine, while not having the capabilities themselves, could have hired some private contractor to do so. A charming theory, as they have the most to gain of all from the destruction of those two pipelines. However, like with the US, this would have only been executed with silent approval from 1 or more mayor EU countries. Doing so without EU approval, could alienate the Ukrainian cause with EU countries/governments. And even with approval, if the people in the street would suspect the Ukraine to be behind this, this would not be liked by most.

Aliens/the Kraken, sure.

V.

@redleg ‘s earlier point about this needing to be executed by Naval SOF that has a submarine deployment capability I think rules out the contractor option… if this was done by either man or drone released from the surface, there would be radar evidence of who/what was in the immediate vicinity, and potentially satellite imagery evidence as well (it’s amazing how much of the earths surface is being imaged at any given time by both government and commercial entities for a variety of reasons)…

For me that leaves the Russians, US, Brits.. and potentially the French and Germans in play… and that’s about it…

Several European counties have very capable SOF units with strong maritime skills…but the vast majority lack the subsurface assets and as a result they lack the training and experience to pull off a subsurface lock out and deep water capability to pull something like this off…
 
This is not NEARLY as much razor wire as I saw in Durban SA--around every business, down the street medians, around homes, etc., etc., If there was one thing I would invest in, in SA, it would be the manufacture and sale of razor wire!
 
@redleg ‘s earlier point about this needing to be executed by Naval SOF that has a submarine deployment capability I think rules out the contractor option… if this was done by either man or drone released from the surface, there would be radar evidence of who/what was in the immediate vicinity, and potentially satellite imagery evidence as well (it’s amazing how much of the earths surface is being imaged at any given time by both government and commercial entities for a variety of reasons)…

For me that leaves the Russians, US, Brits.. and potentially the French and Germans in play… and that’s about it…

Several European counties have very capable SOF units with strong maritime skills…but the vast majority lack the subsurface assets and as a result they lack the training and experience to pull off a subsurface lock out and deep water capability to pull something like this off…
Another theory: Could someone have put a drone(s) into the pipes at some point, remotely guided it(them) to a particular spot and remotely detonated it(them)? No radar track or other evidence.
 
Another theory: Could someone have put a drone(s) into the pipes at some point, remotely guided it(them) to a particular spot and remotely detonated it(them)? No radar track or other evidence.

Very interesting thought. We run pigs (not real pigs, a mechanical device) down lines all the time for inspection and cleaning purposes. An exploding pig would be very simple technology. I don’t know why I didn’t think of this, a simple and elegant way to destroy a pipeline.
 
If mothballed, they may not be able to be brought online in time to help this winter.
Very true. Having spent much of my early career in a lignite fired power plant, I can assure you it is much easier to shut down a coal fired power plant than it is to restart one. Something the greenies may have to learn the hard way.
 
Very interesting thought. We run pigs (not real pigs, a mechanical device) down lines all the time for inspection and cleaning purposes. An exploding pig would be very simple technology. I don’t know why I didn’t think of this, a simple and elegant way to destroy a pipeline.

And of course that would point the finger directly at the Russians.
 
Very interesting thought. We run pigs (not real pigs, a mechanical device) down lines all the time for inspection and cleaning purposes. An exploding pig would be very simple technology. I don’t know why I didn’t think of this, a simple and elegant way to destroy a pipeline.

Very interesting thought....

What sort of range does a pig have? Are they powered through some sort of umbilical? or battery?

If battery I would think it would have really limited range... you'd still have to be relatively close to the blast sight (within a few miles?) to insert it..

but if they have the ability to be powered by an umbilical.. its only real limitation would be how much line it can pull behind it, and how much line is available (I would think)..
 
Very interesting thought. We run pigs (not real pigs, a mechanical device) down lines all the time for inspection and cleaning purposes. An exploding pig would be very simple technology. I don’t know why I didn’t think of this, a simple and elegant way to destroy a pipeline.
Tony Hilerman actually wrote a book involving the “Pigs” and smuggling drugs from Mexico into the U.S.
 
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Very interesting thought....

What sort of range does a pig have? Are they powered through some sort of umbilical? or battery?

If battery I would think it would have really limited range... you'd still have to be relatively close to the blast sight (within a few miles?) to insert it..

but if they have the ability to be powered by an umbilical.. its only real limitation would be how much line it can pull behind it, and how much line is available (I would think)..
I’m not an expert by any means, but the pigs I used on a small field when I was younger were entirely pressure driven.

I’d think that if these James Bond pigs were a thing, the only battery requirements would be for communication, and detonation.

I sure hope Greenpeace isn’t reading this and investing in new technology!
 
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In energy everything has to be looked at on the basis of decades, not price spikes for a year or so. Ensuring that in the future there will be a sustained high level need for LNG, means investment decisions now can pay off in the long run. What the US shale oil/gas industry most needs (apart from government getting out of their way) is long term financing. This financing can only happen if forecasts show many years of higher oil and higher gas prices.

The Biden administration is slow walking leasing/permitting. Unless something changes with the progressive side don't look for anything substantial to change here till January 2025 at the earliest.

Blackrock/Vanguard are playing the ESG card with major banks. Banks will not lend to O&G independents. Independents are the ones that find most of the new fields in America. It truly boggles my mind that the companies managing retirement funds are handcuffing an industry which can generate significant returns to their retirees, but it is definitely happening in the oil patch today. Nothing short of lawsuits, major board shakeups or government regulation will alleviate the slow strangulation of the O&G industry from the capital markets.

Don't look to America for significant increases to supply anytime soon.
 
OK, so here's some silly thought that I had this morning in the shower. I used to work fracking in the Permian, so I understand a bit of what's required. Note, this is not from a "Market" perspective. This is experience (I was responsible for sourcing water for fracking) based completely on what it takes to add a well.

Suppose I assume, for the sake of the discussion, that the executive branch has done a complete 180 on their stated policies and has decided to add to US production in order to make money. That in itself would require a huge leap of faith, and assumption of facts not in evidence, but let's go with it.

One fact in evidence is this: The US has not built new pipelines to transfer gas from the fields to LNG Terminals to load for shipping. Nor have they expanded the terminals they do have, which are running near capacity. Also, LNG and propane are currently running at high cost right now, so "easing" European supply carries with it a similar reduction of US supply... unless you drill additional wells.

So, to take advantage of this "opportunity", you decide to drill an additional well. Consider this:

I'm going to pretend two hours have gone by, and it's now 1 October. That makes the maths easy.

1 October is "spud day" for a new well. Actually, it's not. To drill this well, I need about 10,000 barrels (a barrel is 42 gallons... Don't blame me for the lack of SI units, blame Mr. Rockefeller). Considering a "good" water well in the Permian is about 2500 bbl a day, and an average well is about 1500 a day, we can't spud on 1 October, because no one knew this was coming. Wait, there's an important point: I need to construct the pad, the drilling pit, and a frack pond. If you're really good at managing water, you can reduce the cost/time to build a frack pond by using one nearby. Your transfer costs go way up, but it's still cheaper than the $750,000 or so to build the pond... a pond that needs to be filled at a rate of 2500 bbl/day.

So you make the decision to drill on 1 October, assuming a lease is available, and you have all the appropriate permits in hand. Spud day is now 1 November. On Spud day, you have a viable pad, a viable drilling pond, and the rig in place. What you don't have is a full frack pond. To frack a well, you need about 10,000 barrels per stage. You want to be sure you have that in the pond, because you don't want to stop in the middle of a job. You started filling that pond on 1 October, by 1 November, you've only put in about 75,000 bbl. A "standard" (actually short) job is going to require about 15 stages... so either find more water (non-trivial, in the Permian) or wait. Let's suppose, just to speed things along, you've drilled additional water wells. Assuming you've found good water, and assuming they are also average (or you were able to tap into an existing well), we've put away enough water to spud on 1 Nov. Just to keep things easy.

So you spend about a week, maybe 10 days drilling the well. Go with a week. You're drilling over 5,000 feet into the earth, a good portion of that horizontally. It's now 7 November. You planned ahead, there are no issues, and the Completion Team gets there on 8 November. They have a full Frack Pond, all the appropriate equipment, and are ready to go. The job starts. They are really good at their job. They are only doing 15 stages, and they can complete about five stages a day. The Water Guy did his job, and water is available. The special proprietary mix of sand and other chemicals are there. The well is completed in three days. It's now 11 November. Are we producing yet?

Well, we are producing... some gas, some oil, and an awful lot of that frack mix we sent down there. That frack mix is going to be coming out for the next 25 - 30 days, before you are making oil and gas that can be sold. In the mean time, that mix is all being transported to a disposal well. Your original "Go" date was 1 October, your Spud date was 1 November, and your Put On Line (POL) date is now about 15 December.

But now you need to compress that gas (there are some pipelines, but they don't go all the way to Galveston or Houston), load it in rail cars, and ship it. Add a few days there. It's now almost Christmas, and the gas you first hoped to get out of the ground on 1 October is now getting loaded on to a ship. And that ship needs 20 to 30 days to cross the Atlantic, to make it to Europe. It's now mid-to late January. Assuming there were no "issues" along the way.

I see nothing in the industry press that indicates a sudden increase of drilling rigs in the Permian. Keystone is a bad dream. There are no pipelines crossing from Pennsylvania into other east coast ports.

If there were a nefarious plot for the US to bail out Europe and increase their own profits over this winter, NS pipe sabotage should have happened at least 3 months ago, if not more. On the other hand, poor planning on Hunter's part I can believe.
 
Another theory: Could someone have put a drone(s) into the pipes at some point, remotely guided it(them) to a particular spot and remotely detonated it(them)? No radar track or other evidence.

Excellent point.

Which makes one wonder why were the four explosions all around 100 meters in depth. Does that make them easier to repair and bring back on line. Does that bring more possible saboteurs into question. etc.
 
I’m not an expert by any means, but the pigs I used on a small field when I was younger were entirely pressure driven.

I’d think that if these James Bond pigs were a thing, the only battery requirements would be for communication, and detonation.

I sure hope Greenpeace isn’t reading this and investing in new technology!

They are all pressure driven. There are pig insert and capture stations installed on pipelines everywhere. They run very long distances in the lines.
 
And of course that would point the finger directly at the Russians.

Well you do have to have access to the insertion point. You also have to have flow in the line, so yes, it would likely point in that direction.
 
OK, so here's some silly thought that I had this morning in the shower. I used to work fracking in the Permian, so I understand a bit of what's required. Note, this is not from a "Market" perspective. This is experience (I was responsible for sourcing water for fracking) based completely on what it takes to add a well.

Suppose I assume, for the sake of the discussion, that the executive branch has done a complete 180 on their stated policies and has decided to add to US production in order to make money. That in itself would require a huge leap of faith, and assumption of facts not in evidence, but let's go with it.

One fact in evidence is this: The US has not built new pipelines to transfer gas from the fields to LNG Terminals to load for shipping. Nor have they expanded the terminals they do have, which are running near capacity. Also, LNG and propane are currently running at high cost right now, so "easing" European supply carries with it a similar reduction of US supply... unless you drill additional wells.

So, to take advantage of this "opportunity", you decide to drill an additional well. Consider this:

I'm going to pretend two hours have gone by, and it's now 1 October. That makes the maths easy.

1 October is "spud day" for a new well. Actually, it's not. To drill this well, I need about 10,000 barrels (a barrel is 42 gallons... Don't blame me for the lack of SI units, blame Mr. Rockefeller). Considering a "good" water well in the Permian is about 2500 bbl a day, and an average well is about 1500 a day, we can't spud on 1 October, because no one knew this was coming. Wait, there's an important point: I need to construct the pad, the drilling pit, and a frack pond. If you're really good at managing water, you can reduce the cost/time to build a frack pond by using one nearby. Your transfer costs go way up, but it's still cheaper than the $750,000 or so to build the pond... a pond that needs to be filled at a rate of 2500 bbl/day.

So you make the decision to drill on 1 October, assuming a lease is available, and you have all the appropriate permits in hand. Spud day is now 1 November. On Spud day, you have a viable pad, a viable drilling pond, and the rig in place. What you don't have is a full frack pond. To frack a well, you need about 10,000 barrels per stage. You want to be sure you have that in the pond, because you don't want to stop in the middle of a job. You started filling that pond on 1 October, by 1 November, you've only put in about 75,000 bbl. A "standard" (actually short) job is going to require about 15 stages... so either find more water (non-trivial, in the Permian) or wait. Let's suppose, just to speed things along, you've drilled additional water wells. Assuming you've found good water, and assuming they are also average (or you were able to tap into an existing well), we've put away enough water to spud on 1 Nov. Just to keep things easy.

So you spend about a week, maybe 10 days drilling the well. Go with a week. You're drilling over 5,000 feet into the earth, a good portion of that horizontally. It's now 7 November. You planned ahead, there are no issues, and the Completion Team gets there on 8 November. They have a full Frack Pond, all the appropriate equipment, and are ready to go. The job starts. They are really good at their job. They are only doing 15 stages, and they can complete about five stages a day. The Water Guy did his job, and water is available. The special proprietary mix of sand and other chemicals are there. The well is completed in three days. It's now 11 November. Are we producing yet?

Well, we are producing... some gas, some oil, and an awful lot of that frack mix we sent down there. That frack mix is going to be coming out for the next 25 - 30 days, before you are making oil and gas that can be sold. In the mean time, that mix is all being transported to a disposal well. Your original "Go" date was 1 October, your Spud date was 1 November, and your Put On Line (POL) date is now about 15 December.

But now you need to compress that gas (there are some pipelines, but they don't go all the way to Galveston or Houston), load it in rail cars, and ship it. Add a few days there. It's now almost Christmas, and the gas you first hoped to get out of the ground on 1 October is now getting loaded on to a ship. And that ship needs 20 to 30 days to cross the Atlantic, to make it to Europe. It's now mid-to late January. Assuming there were no "issues" along the way.

I see nothing in the industry press that indicates a sudden increase of drilling rigs in the Permian. Keystone is a bad dream. There are no pipelines crossing from Pennsylvania into other east coast ports.

If there were a nefarious plot for the US to bail out Europe and increase their own profits over this winter, NS pipe sabotage should have happened at least 3 months ago, if not more. On the other hand, poor planning on Hunter's part I can believe.

Agreed, the US is not the logical supplier of LNG to address a shortfall in Europe. Stranded gas without a local market makes much more sense. There are three common methods of monetizing stranded gas; LNG, methanol production and ammonia production. Look to large stranded reserves, often associated gas, for your answer. Places like Australia’s north shelf. These facilities likely have the ability to spin up and address the need.
 
Agreed, the US is not the logical supplier of LNG to address a shortfall in Europe. Stranded gas without a local market makes much more sense. There are three common methods of monetizing stranded gas; LNG, methanol production and ammonia production. Look to large stranded reserves, often associated gas, for your answer. Places like Australia’s north shelf. These facilities likely have the ability to spin up and address the need.

I should have mentioned that shipping is likely to be a greater constraint than production. The world does not have the excess LNG shipping capacity to suddenly support Europe with waterborne LNG.
 
This is a translation of the meat of Putin's annexation speech. Won't find much about Nazis or Ukraine in it.

And the irony of doing this on the same date that Hitler annexed the Sudetenland in 1938 is almost overwhelming.

Additionally the Ukrainian army just completed the encirclement of around 5 thousand Russian troops in the city of Lyman on the same date - in one of of his annexed states.

 
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