Safari Rifle Market-Have we reached the point of no return on cost?

[rookhawk]

The older I get and the older the woman gets, the more they feel the same.... just saying.

Cold as steel and if handled incorrectly can result in death?

 

[dogcat1]

Could not have said it better....

 

[ActionBob]

..... or say they can’t afford certain hunts.

... because they won't even look at booking a hunt before they have what in their mind is the "perfect" rifle.

I had a guy talking to me about wanting to buy a series of rifles in various calibers to take on his dream hunt. I don't think the guy ever got farther than talking a big line.

Had he bought a $1500 M70 in 375 H&H and topped it with a $1000 Leupold he could have gone on his first hunt. And refined from that experience

 

[skydiver386]

I was thinking about these posts and had another angle on the "hypothesis".

"Safari Rifle Market-Have we reached the point of no return on cost?"

I took a walk down memory lane to see if things are really more expensive today, or if they are rampantly increasing "to the point of no return on cost". The answer is a resounding "nope, its EXACTLY the same as its always been".

Lets use the Example of a 600 Nitro Express Double Rifle made in 1902, retailed by Jeffery. If you're unaware, Jeffery Rifles are usually mid-grade and are rather unremarkable, all the esteem associated with them is because Jeffery was a prolific inventor of cartridges and that cemented his reputation, even though he never made a gun in his lifetime, relying on white labeling guns from the trade. At any rate, a 600NE largebore rifle in 1902 was 52.5 GBP. In that era that was backed by the gold standard, that was 12.36 Troy ounces of gold which in turn has a present value of $49,900. That was what a man would spend for a specialized tool for hunting elephant. That sounds exactly like what a man would spend for an equivalent quality double rifle today in 470NE or 500NE.

In 1912 Westley Richards would make you a best .425WR magazine rifle for 75GBP. 17.66 Troy Ounces of gold is worth about $71,000 today. That sounds somewhat similar to what you would pay for a rifle of that quality today.

As you'll see based on this angle, people bought very nice guns to go to Africa during the halcyon days.

Now as to the appeal to evidence in the modern era, the OP referenced GunsInternational so I think that's a fine spot for evidence. I would suggest that the quantity of excellent quality rifles in safari rifle calibers is very, very thin. If either of my above examples were listed on GI, they wouldn't last a week if priced anywhere near FMV. There is far more demand than there is supply.

So why the disconnect between my assertion in the prior paragraph and the OP's statement that there was basically "infinite supply and growing". I don't think so. There is an infinity supply of bad, common, mediocre, and plastic rifles, not good ones.

Modern Guns In Ample Supply That Are Terrible Investments (plentiful)	Equivalent Guns In Remarkably Scarce Supply that are Fantastic Investments (rare)
Blaser R8	Dakota 76 Africa
Rigby Shikari	Pre-War Rigby
Rigby Dangerous Game Magazine Rifle	Pre-War Rigby 416
A&S 20 Gauge Italian Best Shotgun	Pre-War Boss 20 Gauge
Best American Custom Magnum Mauser	Hartmann & Weis Magnum Mauser
Post-64 FN Winchester 375HH	Pre-64 Connecticut Winchester 375HH
Browning 28 Gauge BSS	Third-Tier British 28 Gauge SxS
Custom largebore built on a CZ550 Action	Griffin & Howe large bore built on a mauser
Merkel/Searcy/Rizzini Large Bore DR	Heym Large Bore DR

The glut of guns on GI in the left column is the "infinite supply", the amount of unmolested, well configured comparable guns in the right column found on GI is very, very low.

Abundance is an illusion, there is scarcity of fairly priced high quality traditional arms. Price is an illusion, the prices of "the good stuff" have always been about what they are now if you peg them to gold, rather than fiat currency.

BUTT....
who could have predicted 100-120 years ago what would have been a good investment and what not? The Dakota and the pre64 Winchester were nothing special while they were in production. It was only AFTER they went out of production that they were missed.

Same with the CZ that is no longer produced. @krish
Has a wonderful safe full of them and the going market price is 2x what they were selling for NIB just over 5 years ago. Specialized calibers built by Triple River/CZ Custom shop are easily 3X what they were in 2019 when production stopped.

I don't think anyone has a crystal ball to predict the future of any rifle type. The best prediction of the future is past market activity, but even that is just a guess.

 

[rookhawk]

BUTT....
who could have predicted 100-120 years ago what would have been a good investment and what not? The Dakota and the pre64 Winchester were nothing special while they were in production. It was only AFTER they went out of production that they were missed.

Same with the CZ that is no longer produced. @krish
Has a wonderful safe full of them and the going market price is 2x what they were selling for NIB just over 5 years ago. Specialized calibers built by Triple River/CZ Custom shop are easily 3X what they were in 2019 when production stopped.

I don't think anyone has a crystal ball to predict the future of any rifle type. The best prediction of the future is past market activity, but even that is just a guess.

I don't get it right all the time, but Dakota was an obvious value proposition. Their business only worked at volume, building semi-custom rifles. They couldn't afford to "fire customers" by raising prices, they were trapped. Their rifles were far, far better than their direct competitor Cooper in the same time span. Dakota had true magnum actions, mauser-style features, and they were building their rifles for a pittance. (2x the price of junk from the local mass market gun shops)

I was more skeptical of Rigby when they started, but I don't think the guy in 2012 that bought one for $10k was crazy. Rigby was starving and wasn't a profitable business, thus they were selling them for about 20% less than they should just to get started. If you take that 20% price correction and adjust for inflation since 2012, that's exactly what the price of a new Rigby is today. Fairly logical, not a terrible buy by any means, but nowhere near the upside of the Dakotas because you got so so much rifle for so little money.

Heyms are another modern example that isn't a collector gun, but boy have they done well. They were relatively inexpensive in the 1990s, but inflation plus price increases have driven the secondary market value of Heyms higher and higher. We should have predicted that, they were known to be the most durable of the semi-custom double rifles and their prices were near parity with inferior options of the day.

In all the examples above, you didn't have to be a collector to see the upside, just buying them as a consumer it was easy to see that the Dakota and Heym examples were tremendous values and still are in light of alternatives.

On the antique/vintage/luxury front, I will cede that we don't know what the future holds. A lot of people bought tons of really nice drillings, combination guns, parker shotguns, belgian brownings, and pre-64 Model 21s....they may not have lost dollars but they absolutely lost dollars adjusted for inflation because their prices have been stagnant. I can't explain why I kept a pretty large distance from these, but it just felt like there was no future in them as far as being coveted. I've never been wealthy enough to buy stuff that diminishes in value.

 

[ActionBob]

Until my children were out of college I never owned a gun costing over $1000. That has changed dramatically, but I hunt with everything I have. So if you’re the person who dreams of fine rifles, make good decisions now and you will get there. Never forget it’s who you’re hunting with not what that makes the best memories.

Ok that's may be the best post on this thread!

Making good sound financial decisions earlier in life than later is the key to being able to do what you want later in life.

I very distinctly remember trying to figure out how to buy new clothes for my oldest son to go back to school in 1991. That was a wake up call to seriously write out goals and make plans to attain them

 

[krish]

BUTT....
who could have predicted 100-120 years ago what would have been a good investment and what not? The Dakota and the pre64 Winchester were nothing special while they were in production. It was only AFTER they went out of production that they were missed.

Same with the CZ that is no longer produced. @krish
Has a wonderful safe full of them and the going market price is 2x what they were selling for NIB just over 5 years ago. Specialized calibers built by Triple River/CZ Custom shop are easily 3X what they were in 2019 when production stopped.

I don't think anyone has a crystal ball to predict the future of any rifle type. The best prediction of the future is past market activity, but even that is just a guess.

At one time I did. Most of them are gone. The best place to invest money is in PROVEN FIRE ARMS, GOLD and SILVER.
KRISH.

 

[krish]

On top of all that.,
Invest in your childrens education.
Nothing better than that.

 

[skydiver386]

At one time I did. Most of them are gone. The best place to invest money is in PROVEN FIRE ARMS, GOLD and SILVER.
KRISH.

I still keep an eye out for what you've got left. ️

 

[Tanks]

The highest level of rifles are rarely used (not true of shotguns). Many of them sit in display cases. I have yet to see one in the field or even at the range.

While my upcoming Rigby Shikari might not be the highest level of a rifle I plan to use it.

 

[ActionBob]

While my upcoming Rigby Shikari might not be the highest level of a rifle I plan to use it.

Definitely a rifle meant to be used.

 

[Pondoro]

Can we agree on that most prewar british doubles in good condition, box or sidelock in calibers from .450/400 and up are collector rifles..?

 

[rookhawk]

Can we agree on that most prewar british doubles in good condition, box or sidelock in calibers from .450/400 and up are collector rifles..?

I would say not really. Allow me to defend the statement.

I have seen bedraggled, then restored pre-war British double rifles on this forum and elsewhere many times. Is it collectible? Not in the least, its been molested, restocked, barrels have pits blacked over, the engraving on the action is very thin, it's just a working tool.

But do I dislike them? No. I've had many friends on AH and elsewhere show me rifles that look like the above and they lay this at my feet. "Rookhawk, I only can afford $15k, this is what I found". I do my best to evaluate the tool, I tell them about the warts, and I render an opinion based on their budget on whether that is their best alternative option. A vintage british double rifle with zero collector value at a pricepoint in the teens is 100% better rifle than the modern double rifles are at that pricepoint. (Disclaimer: Every rifle is unique, I'm assuming its "functional" and without latent defects)

I don't mean to seem disagreeable with my answer, but old doesn't mean valuable, but in the case of old and British it usually means a very serviceable tool for the task. There is probably a bit of "functional art" left into the lowliest of poorly restored pre-war British double rifles too.

 

[Pondoro]

I would say not really. Allow me to defend the statement.

I have seen bedraggled, then restored pre-war British double rifles on this forum and elsewhere many times. Is it collectible? Not in the least, its been molested, restocked, barrels have pits blacked over, the engraving on the action is very thin, it's just a working tool.

But do I dislike them? No. I've had many friends on AH and elsewhere show me rifles that look like the above and they lay this at my feet. "Rookhawk, I only can afford $15k, this is what I found". I do my best to evaluate the tool, I tell them about the warts, and I render an opinion based on their budget on whether that is their best alternative option. A vintage british double rifle with zero collector value at a pricepoint in the teens is 100% better rifle than the modern double rifles are at that pricepoint. (Disclaimer: Every rifle is unique, I'm assuming its "functional" and without latent defects)

I don't mean to seem disagreeable with my answer, but old doesn't mean valuable, but in the case of old and British it usually means a very serviceable tool for the task. There is probably a bit of "functional art" left into the lowliest of poorly restored pre-war British double rifles too.

You only refer to the worn(out) and pitted ones.. There are a few good ones..in fact a lot of good ones at least here in Europe..if one purchase wisely that is.

I will argue that a truly handmade british double rilfe in very good condition, box or sidelock, is a rifle both to enjoy in Africa and also worth to collect.

 

[skydiver386]

While my upcoming Rigby Shikari might not be the highest level of a rifle I plan to use it.

If the Cretins on this forum ever convince you that a Rigby Shikari isn't worthy, and it'll help you out, I'll give you 50 Bucks for it.

 

[rookhawk]

You only refer to the worn(out) and pitted ones.. There are a few good ones..in fact a lot of good ones at least here in Europe..if one purchase wisely that is.

I will argue that a truly handmade british double rilfe in very good condition, box or sidelock, is a rifle both to enjoy in Africa and also worth to collect.

A good one in a functional caliber that hasn't been heavily reworked or poorly restored is indeed, a collectible. (something that holds or increases in value) I like the term "functional art" for any good rifle. You get to enjoy it on the wall as art, you get to take it into the field and enjoy it, if your preferences change or you need liquidity you can sell it. A good British double rifle honors all of those attributes.