Safari Rifle Market-Have we reached the point of no return on cost?

[M70375!]

You’re noticing rifles are expensive, but I disagree. You’re actually noticing that dollars are worthless in their buying power.

You could say the same thing about Toyotas, or custom kitchens, or premium appliances, or even the price of steaks and shellfish.

spot on!

 

[rigby 416]

Cz are the best.

 

[Mountaineer]

Until my children were out of college I never owned a gun costing over $1000. That has changed dramatically, but I hunt with everything I have. So if you’re the person who dreams of fine rifles, make good decisions now and you will get there. Never forget it’s who you’re hunting with not what that makes the best memories.

 

[zephyr]

I take great pleasure hunting with my "expensive" rifles and shotguns. If wood and metal get worn the gun is refinished; wood, checkering, blueing, and they carry on.
I was once chastised for carrying an English shotgun into our rough New England bird coverts by a gentleman driving a brand new and cherished Chevy Suburban costing upwards of $75k... I mentioned that my gun was 135 years old and going strong and his new SUV would be cheap fill in a dozen years....
Will a "inexpensive" shotgun or rifle kill as well as an expensive rifle or shotgun? You bet... But life may be too short ....

 

[Hunting Hitman]

The Lion does not care what the Impala thinks…buy what you want and hunt what you want. You’ve worked hard and now deserve to enjoy the fruits of your labor.

HH

 

[Mark A Ouellette]

I take great pleasure hunting with my "expensive" rifles and shotguns. If wood and metal get worn the gun is refinished; wood, checkering, blueing, and they carry on.
I was once chastised for carrying an English shotgun into our rough New England bird coverts by a gentleman driving a brand new and cherished Chevy Suburban costing upwards of $75k... I mentioned that my gun was 135 years old and going strong and his new SUV would be cheap fill in a dozen years....
Will a "inexpensive" shotgun or rifle kill as well as an expensive rifle or shotgun? You bet... But life may be too short ....

@zepher nails it! If one buys fine firearms at a good price, those firearms will hold value over the short term and gain value over the long term. No, most won't increase in value as much as even a good index fund, but it is not like throwing money away.

I have been a firearms affectionado, i.e. gun nut since age 11. While my safes do not hold $50,000 rifles and shotguns, there are many very nice rifles and a few shotguns that won't embarrass my hunting dog!

I have long pondered that some collect things be they guns, watches, cars and so on. Others collect trophy heads to mount in their man caves. Then some collect adventures such as the next hunt in Uganda or other seldom seen places. I believe many of us fall within two or more of these categories.

As a gun collector, I have a few rifles that I will keep until I grow far too old to enjoy them. These or those that I've hunted will like my custom M98 in .22-250 that together we've slain hundreds of woodchucks some 40 years ago. Another is my Heym 88B in .458 Win. I've recorded over 750 shots which I've put down her tubes and taken buffalo, giraffe, zebra, lioness, and a tuskless with her.

Since I have no heirs that would appreciate my rifles a tenth as much as I do, most will be sold to new caretakers one or two at a time. Some of those sales will fund my last African hunt. My most cherished guns will part my caretaking about the time I need a walker to go from room to room.

 

[TOBY458]

So far, I’ve used Sako, Winchester, Kimber and Blaser R8 in Africa. All of those rifles have killed everything I’ve pointed them at. The last three safaris in Zim have been with the Blaser R8. It has been nothing but utterly reliable and accurate. My R8’s are not the higher end version either. Just plain Jane Professional models with synthetic stocks. If you’re patient, you can get into these fairly reasonably priced. In my mind, they are very hard to beat for the traveling hunter.

 

[Altitude sickness]

As I sit in the woods with my 1960 Bear Kodiak, Marks comments translate to my archery equipment as well.

For a period I gathered any traditional bow that tickled my fancy. And it eventually got out of hand. Many hung vertically on a peg but many were squirreled away. I am now down to the few that my grandsons will either keep, sell or throw away.

One is out with me as I type this. My birth year Kodiak

 

[Philip Glass]

Me too!

 

[Philip Glass]

You have some good points....honestly I'm just assuming that 90%+ of the people on here would never buy a firearm even at the 30k level. I'm more or less trying to gauge what the market will truly bare as ratio of guys actually buying guns for Africa and supply of guns on the market. As far as I can tell, the cost of high quality has gone up significantly in the last 15 years, definitely higher than the rate of inflation. I worked for the Blaser Group some years back and the Rigby "Big Games" at that point were selling for 10-12k, now they are 15-20k. I could be way off base,...but its a great discussion and i really enjoy the input form you fellas on here.

I enjoy the discussion and poll as well. Thanks!

 

[steve white]

No, because you can always build one for less if you try.

 

[Safari Dave]

I own 3 CZ's chambered for DG cartridges. I paid $1,000 for the most expensive one.

If one shops around, good deals can be found.

 

[rookhawk]

I was thinking about these posts and had another angle on the "hypothesis".

"Safari Rifle Market-Have we reached the point of no return on cost?"

I took a walk down memory lane to see if things are really more expensive today, or if they are rampantly increasing "to the point of no return on cost". The answer is a resounding "nope, its EXACTLY the same as its always been".

Lets use the Example of a 600 Nitro Express Double Rifle made in 1902, retailed by Jeffery. If you're unaware, Jeffery Rifles are usually mid-grade and are rather unremarkable, all the esteem associated with them is because Jeffery was a prolific inventor of cartridges and that cemented his reputation, even though he never made a gun in his lifetime, relying on white labeling guns from the trade. At any rate, a 600NE largebore rifle in 1902 was 52.5 GBP. In that era that was backed by the gold standard, that was 12.36 Troy ounces of gold which in turn has a present value of $49,900. That was what a man would spend for a specialized tool for hunting elephant. That sounds exactly like what a man would spend for an equivalent quality double rifle today in 470NE or 500NE.

In 1912 Westley Richards would make you a best .425WR magazine rifle for 75GBP. 17.66 Troy Ounces of gold is worth about $71,000 today. That sounds somewhat similar to what you would pay for a rifle of that quality today.

As you'll see based on this angle, people bought very nice guns to go to Africa during the halcyon days.

Now as to the appeal to evidence in the modern era, the OP referenced GunsInternational so I think that's a fine spot for evidence. I would suggest that the quantity of excellent quality rifles in safari rifle calibers is very, very thin. If either of my above examples were listed on GI, they wouldn't last a week if priced anywhere near FMV. There is far more demand than there is supply.

So why the disconnect between my assertion in the prior paragraph and the OP's statement that there was basically "infinite supply and growing". I don't think so. There is an infinity supply of bad, common, mediocre, and plastic rifles, not good ones.

Modern Guns In Ample Supply That Are Terrible Investments (plentiful)	Equivalent Guns In Remarkably Scarce Supply that are Fantastic Investments (rare)
Blaser R8	Dakota 76 Africa
Rigby Shikari	Pre-War Rigby
Rigby Dangerous Game Magazine Rifle	Pre-War Rigby 416
A&S 20 Gauge Italian Best Shotgun	Pre-War Boss 20 Gauge
Best American Custom Magnum Mauser	Hartmann & Weis Magnum Mauser
Post-64 FN Winchester 375HH	Pre-64 Connecticut Winchester 375HH
Browning 28 Gauge BSS	Third-Tier British 28 Gauge SxS
Custom largebore built on a CZ550 Action	Griffin & Howe large bore built on a mauser
Merkel/Searcy/Rizzini Large Bore DR	Heym Large Bore DR

The glut of guns on GI in the left column is the "infinite supply", the amount of unmolested, well configured comparable guns in the right column found on GI is very, very low.

Abundance is an illusion, there is scarcity of fairly priced high quality traditional arms. Price is an illusion, the prices of "the good stuff" have always been about what they are now if you peg them to gold, rather than fiat currency.

 

[ftrovato]

Supply & demand are an interesting conversation.

Inflation will raise water levels and as the world gets smaller people have easier access to far away places (for hunting).

I'll hinge a bet that investment rifles & hunting rifles will not fall out of fashion.

Buy the best you can afford and it only hurts once!

 

[318AE]

I was thinking about these posts and had another angle on the "hypothesis".

"Safari Rifle Market-Have we reached the point of no return on cost?"

I took a walk down memory lane to see if things are really more expensive today, or if they are rampantly increasing "to the point of no return on cost". The answer is a resounding "nope, its EXACTLY the same as its always been".

Lets use the Example of a 600 Nitro Express Double Rifle made in 1902, retailed by Jeffery. If you're unaware, Jeffery Rifles are usually mid-grade and are rather unremarkable, all the esteem associated with them is because Jeffery was a prolific inventor of cartridges and that cemented his reputation, even though he never made a gun in his lifetime, relying on white labeling guns from the trade. At any rate, a 600NE largebore rifle in 1902 was 52.5 GBP. In that era that was backed by the gold standard, that was 12.36 Troy ounces of gold which in turn has a present value of $49,900. That was what a man would spend for a specialized tool for hunting elephant. That sounds exactly like what a man would spend for an equivalent quality double rifle today in 470NE or 500NE.

In 1912 Westley Richards would make you a best .425WR magazine rifle for 75GBP. 17.66 Troy Ounces of gold is worth about $71,000 today. That sounds somewhat similar to what you would pay for a rifle of that quality today.

As you'll see based on this angle, people bought very nice guns to go to Africa during the halcyon days.

Now as to the appeal to evidence in the modern era, the OP referenced GunsInternational so I think that's a fine spot for evidence. I would suggest that the quantity of excellent quality rifles in safari rifle calibers is very, very thin. If either of my above examples were listed on GI, they wouldn't last a week if priced anywhere near FMV. There is far more demand than there is supply.

So why the disconnect between my assertion in the prior paragraph and the OP's statement that there was basically "infinite supply and growing". I don't think so. There is an infinity supply of bad, common, mediocre, and plastic rifles, not good ones.

Modern Guns In Ample Supply That Are Terrible Investments (plentiful)	Equivalent Guns In Remarkably Scarce Supply that are Fantastic Investments (rare)
Blaser R8	Dakota 76 Africa
Rigby Shikari	Pre-War Rigby
Rigby Dangerous Game Magazine Rifle	Pre-War Rigby 416
A&S 20 Gauge Italian Best Shotgun	Pre-War Boss 20 Gauge
Best American Custom Magnum Mauser	Hartmann & Weis Magnum Mauser
Post-64 FN Winchester 375HH	Pre-64 Connecticut Winchester 375HH
Browning 28 Gauge BSS	Third-Tier British 28 Gauge SxS
Custom largebore built on a CZ550 Action	Griffin & Howe large bore built on a mauser
Merkel/Searcy/Rizzini Large Bore DR	Heym Large Bore DR

The glut of guns on GI in the left column is the "infinite supply", the amount of unmolested, well configured comparable guns in the right column found on GI is very, very low.

Abundance is an illusion, there is scarcity of fairly priced high quality traditional arms. Price is an illusion, the prices of "the good stuff" have always been about what they are now if you peg them to gold, rather than fiat currency.

I likely have more rifles similar to the right hand side myself. Having said that, many of those “terrible investments” on the left represent the best value in a quality firearm suited exceptionally well for the task, that can bring a lot of satisfaction.

 

[rookhawk]

Another fun point I just played with was the fact that almost none of us "should be able to afford a safari" compared to our forefathers.

I asked Chatgpt to look through historical 1910 era accounts to figure out what they paid at that time for their 30 day, two hunter safaris.

It budgeted the following:

Here’s a revised cost estimate for a 30-day safari for two guns (hunters) around 1910 in British East Africa, now including second-class travel and an elephant licence, plus a gold-equivalent calculation for modern perspective.

---

Additional cost elements​

• Elephant special licence: The handbook for the East Africa Protectorate shows a fee of Rs 150 for one elephant. Internet Archive
  
  • Using earlier conversion (Rs 15 ≈ £1) this is ~ £10.
• Second-class ocean passage (UK → Mombasa): While I couldn’t locate a definitive 1910 fare for UK→Mombasa second class, typical colonial steamship fares to Africa around the era for “intermediate services” were in the tens of pounds. For budgeting I’ll assume £20 per person for second-class.
  
  • For two hunters: ~ £40.
• Return rail or inland travel to camp: Previously assumed ~£10 for both; keep that value.

---

Revised budget estimate (1910 money)​

Breaking down all items:

• Licences (two sportsmen + one elephant licence): ~ £110 (sportsmen) + £10 (elephant) = £120
• Ocean passage (second class for two): £40
• Rail/inland travel: £10
• Caravan wages & general field costs: ~ £29 (porters/headman) + ~£100–£150 (transport, kit, food) = assume £130
• White hunter/outfitter fee (4-weeks): ~ £40
• Total ~ £340 (mid-point of range)
• If upper estimate (£150 camp costs) → total ~ £380.

---

Gold-equivalent for modern perspective​

• In 1910: £1 ≈ 0.2355 troy oz of gold (via gold-standard parity).
• So:
  
  • For £340 → 340 × 0.2355 ≈ 80.1 troy oz
  • For £380 → ~ 89.5 troy oz
• With modern gold at US$4,000 per oz:
  
  • 80.1 oz × $4,000 = US$320,400
  • 89.5 oz × $4,000 = US$358,000

---

Summary​

For two hunters, 30 days in camp, second-class travel, and including elephant licence, a 1910 safari would cost roughly £340-£380 in period money. Translated into gold-equivalent value at today’s gold price ($4,000/oz) this is approximately US$320,000–US$360,000.


And by the way, this illustrates A.) Even the most luxurious and extensive modern safari is a fraction of the historic costs. B.) It explains why it was customary to "gift" your rifle to the PH at the end of the hunt, giving a rifle that in today's dollars is worth $70,000 would be about they same 20% gratuity you'd anticipate giving today.

When readers (myself absolutely included) can't wrap their mind around a battery of $150,000 rifles for Africa its because we wouldn't have been able to afford the $350,000 modern-price equivalent cost of the safari that went with those rifles. Just like in 1910, those people that can "do it right" today are equally scarce, in the 1/10th of 1% of first world revenue people. I celebrate them, but I'm not one of them. But by these measures, a $30k "utilitarian" rifle and a $30k "reasonably wild elephant hunt" are about what you'd expect a top-10% first world wage earner could swing today. And they do, because a top-10% first world wealth holder today is probably a person over age 50, never divorced, that maxed their savings into a pension or 401k their whole life.

The math always makes sense.

 

[rookhawk]

I likely have more rifles similar to the right hand side myself. Having said that, many of those “terrible investments” on the left represent the best value in a quality firearm suited exceptionally well for the task, that can bring a lot of satisfaction.

Everyone has their biases towards or against rifles, I generally eschew technology for technologies sake. Nonetheless, my table was meant to illustrate an Option A and an Option B that can be had for roughly equal monies, but finding the Option B might take 1-2 years and Option A merely requires a credit card for instant gratification. The Option A's underperform and are ubiquitous, the Option B's strongly appreciate and are really scarce.

 

[dogcat1]

Another perspective - we all drive a vehicle. Some drive a Cadillac others drive Fords others drive Mercedes. I think we drive or shoot or wear what we can afford and we like.

On rifles or shotguns, I shoot them all. I am not a collector. I have several high end rifles and some low end but I shoot them all. I shoot what I like and hope kids will enjoy them or sell them when I am gone.

 

[ftrovato]

Another perspective - we all drive a vehicle. Some drive a Cadillac others drive Fords others drive Mercedes. I think we drive or shoot or wear what we can afford and we like.

On rifles or shotguns, I shoot them all. I am not a collector. I have several high end rifles and some low end but I shoot them all. I shoot what I like and hope kids will enjoy them or sell them when I am gone.

One of the few pleasures in life is holding a woman or a fine firearm!

 

[dogcat1]

The older I get and the older the woman gets, the more they feel the same.... just saying.