Safari Rifle Market-Have we reached the point of no return on cost?

[uplander01]

I can honestly say in the 30 years I have been involved in the big game hunting and shooting sports industry I have never seen this volume of expensive "Africa" type rifles for sale. If a guy had incredible amounts of disposable income and did not care about ROI you could be buying rifles that typically would never see the open market. What does this mean for the Big Game Industry? Today, I went on Guns International and went to the "Africa Big Game Magazine Rifles" category and had it show from the Highest Price first order. Unbelievable, I had to scroll through the first 3 pages before I hit the 10k level......a first I have never seen before. How can this flood of expensive rifles that just sit on the market for months on end be good in the long? Add to that manufacturers are making more every day. In a normal world, which is not what we are currently living in, the prices would have to come down, it's a simple supply and demand model.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of my fellow African Hunting aficionados. I've also created a poll, I think this will be interesting.........

Thanks-

 

[SafariCurious]

LESS THAN $2k!

My brand new .375 Ruger guide rifle from Bass Pro was about $1,000 when I got it on sale.

 

[samson7x]

<2k for a M70

I’m not in the same tax bracket as a lot of the folks on here.

 

[Green Chile]

The highest level of rifles are rarely used (not true of shotguns). Many of them sit in display cases. I have yet to see one in the field or even at the range. It would take a real upper level of income to take that out in the field and not care about some wear on it. That's an upper crust level of rifles as artwork. I remember Boddington taking a new Rigby 416 into the jungle for bongo. He wore a lot of finish off it but in the end said, it's an American Rigby and that's not the same thing. True enough.

 

[rookhawk]

I can honestly say in the 30 years I have been involved in the big game hunting and shooting sports industry I have never seen this volume of expensive "Africa" type rifles for sale. If a guy had incredible amounts of disposable income and did not care about ROI you could be buying rifles that typically would never see the open market. What does this mean for the Big Game Industry? Today, I went on Guns International and went to the "Africa Big Game Magazine Rifles" category and had it show from the Highest Price first order. Unbelievable, I had to scroll through the first 3 pages before I hit the 10k level......a first I have never seen before. How can this flood of expensive rifles that just sit on the market for months on end be good in the long? Add to that manufacturers are making more every day. In a normal world, which is not what we are currently living in, the prices would have to come down, it's a simple supply and demand model.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of my fellow African Hunting aficionados. I've also created a poll, I think this will be interesting.........

Thanks-

You’re noticing rifles are expensive, but I disagree. You’re actually noticing that dollars are worthless in their buying power.

You could say the same thing about Toyotas, or custom kitchens, or premium appliances, or even the price of steaks and shellfish.

 

[rookhawk]

I can honestly say in the 30 years I have been involved in the big game hunting and shooting sports industry I have never seen this volume of expensive "Africa" type rifles for sale. If a guy had incredible amounts of disposable income and did not care about ROI you could be buying rifles that typically would never see the open market. What does this mean for the Big Game Industry? Today, I went on Guns International and went to the "Africa Big Game Magazine Rifles" category and had it show from the Highest Price first order. Unbelievable, I had to scroll through the first 3 pages before I hit the 10k level......a first I have never seen before. How can this flood of expensive rifles that just sit on the market for months on end be good in the long? Add to that manufacturers are making more every day. In a normal world, which is not what we are currently living in, the prices would have to come down, it's a simple supply and demand model.

I'd be interested in the thoughts of my fellow African Hunting aficionados. I've also created a poll, I think this will be interesting.........

Thanks-

Your survey doesn’t ask enough questions. $30,000+ will get you a fully functional, but maybe not-so-great double rifles. Even if you’re not a gun collector or gun nut, that’s sort of the ground floor on a rifle suitable for frequent elephant hunting.

Had you asked if people spent $150,000 you’d have snuffed out whether a lot of people are buying collector grade firearms, or just getting functional firearms for very specialized hunting.

 

[Beck]

LESS THAN $2k!

My brand new .375 Ruger guide rifle from Bass Pro was about $1,000 when I got it on sale.

And it will kill anything that walks!

 

[uplander01]

Your survey doesn’t ask enough questions. $30,000+ will get you a fully functional, but maybe not-so-great double rifles. Even if you’re not a gun collector or gun nut, that’s sort of the ground floor on a rifle suitable for frequent elephant hunting.

Had you asked if people spent $150,000 you’d have snuffed out whether a lot of people are buying collector grade firearms, or just getting functional firearms for very specialized hunting.

You have some good points....honestly I'm just assuming that 90%+ of the people on here would never buy a firearm even at the 30k level. I'm more or less trying to gauge what the market will truly bare as ratio of guys actually buying guns for Africa and supply of guns on the market. As far as I can tell, the cost of high quality has gone up significantly in the last 15 years, definitely higher than the rate of inflation. I worked for the Blaser Group some years back and the Rigby "Big Games" at that point were selling for 10-12k, now they are 15-20k. I could be way off base,...but its a great discussion and i really enjoy the input form you fellas on here.

 

[Ontario Hunter]

Like real estate, collectibles, while they can be productive investments, are risky and seldom easy to turn over profitably if one needs the funds quickly. My investment portfolio could be liquidated tomorrow if I needed it. In the meantime that money is helping keep people on the job and paying their bills, in theory anyway. A bunch of old crap gathering dust in a closet isn't doing anyone any good. Easier to dodge taxes investing in collectibles. But I've never been big on dodging taxes. The govt has been good to me and my family. I'll pay my dues.

I built my 404J on a 98 Mauser for ~$2,500. I figure my daughter should be able to sell it for that after I cash in. Probably more if she's patient and throws in the loading components.

 

[Altitude sickness]

tThe US dollar continues being De valued this will be viewed as a good time in history to buy items that hold their value.

Also, there is coming a time where the government will track and make illegal, selling and buying things over a certain dollar amount with without them being able to tax it. And track it.

so there is a strategy to hold things that can be bartered, traded, and sold on the black market easily without being taxed or tracked.

Guns and ammo being high on that list of contraband. Of course it will be made a felony.

 

[ActionBob]

You’re noticing rifles are expensive, but I disagree. You’re actually noticing that dollars are worthless in their buying power.

You could say the same thing about Toyotas, or custom kitchens, or premium appliances, or even the price of steaks and shellfish.

Absolutely correct. I don't know that I fully buy into Gold being the only real money. But damn if you compare the dollar to Gold it sure makes your point.

Covid-19 and I think to some effect Tarriffs have both contributed. But that 4 years of Bidenomics has really devalued the dollar and I think most if not all fiat currencies.

You just cannot print that much money and have that much of the economy based upon the Government. Which produces Absolutely nothing of value. All it dors us remove value from the economy. Not saying we don't need Government for public infrastructure, law enforcement, national defense. But we have all been witness to the vast extent of waste fraud and abuse. It all detracts from the value of the Government paper money.

Then stack double or even high single digit inflation on top of itself....

What too many don't realize is that 10% inflation on top of a second year of 10% inflation is not 10% inflation
Nor is it 20%. It is at least 21%. It compounds. A 3rd 10% makes it 33.1%. Doesn't take long to cut the value of the dollar in half.

Before my first trip to Africa in 2014 I bought a Winchester M70 Safari Express for $1200 brand new. And a Ruger Guide Gun for $850.

 

[ActionBob]

tThe US dollar continues being De valued this will be viewed as a good time in history to buy items that hold their value.

Also, there is coming a time where the government will track and make illegal, selling and buying things over a certain dollar amount with without them being able to tax it. And track it.

so there is a strategy to hold things that can be bartered, traded, and sold on the black market easily without being taxed or tracked.

Guns and ammo being high on that list of contraband. Of course it will be made a felony.

Damn.... and you were right about Tesla stock....

 

[tarbe]

We must resist the temptation to think in nominal terms.

We must always adjust for "inflation"...or more accurately, the diminished purchasing power of the fiat currency we deal with.

In gold terms, I can buy a nice Rigby Big Game rifle for 6 or 7 ounces of gold.

That was not true 3 years ago. They were more like 10+ ounces.

So in gold terms, the price is down!

Edit: sorry, replied before reading all the previous replies. Call me Mr Redundant!

 

[Elkeater]

Safari rifle? Never bought one. I do have a Ruger M77 mark II in .300 win mag I would consider my safari rifle. Bought new in 2005 or 2006 for about $600 if I recall correctly.

I have been looking at a DG rifles though and I will say there is a lot of rifles on the market right now that are sitting for months or in some case the last year or more. What that tells me is that the economy is not in a great place overall. Luxury goods like fine rifles are the first things that get sold and and the last thing people want to buy. Also today’s newest group of hunters were raised on carbon fiber and stainless steel not bluing and walnut. So many “safari rifles” are sort of out of fashion. These are just my personal opinions though and could be totally wrong.

 

[Altitude sickness]

Damn.... and you were right about Tesla stock....

I also posted in late spring, early summer that the stock market and gold would go gang busters by July or August.

Full disclosure; I get my info from a cousin and nephew that do well in trading.

 

[rookhawk]

You have some good points....honestly I'm just assuming that 90%+ of the people on here would never buy a firearm even at the 30k level. I'm more or less trying to gauge what the market will truly bare as ratio of guys actually buying guns for Africa and supply of guns on the market. As far as I can tell, the cost of high quality has gone up significantly in the last 15 years, definitely higher than the rate of inflation. I worked for the Blaser Group some years back and the Rigby "Big Games" at that point were selling for 10-12k, now they are 15-20k. I could be way off base,...but its a great discussion and i really enjoy the input form you fellas on here.

Your survey this morning had 8 respondents, HALF of them spent over $30k on a rifle. I think you've got two misguided assumptions:

1.) That people who buy $30k rifles are either A.) Rich, B.) Collectors, or C.) at that pricepoint they are buying gold, fancy wood, and engraving, rather than buying reliability.

2.) You're also assuming there is a glut of rifles on the market suitable for Dangerous Game hunting. The supply is very bleak in particular calibers that are in demand. Go over to GI and look at how many 500 Jeff and 505 Gibbs rifles are available in TOTAL. Then filter out the not trustworthy customs on CZ actions that may or may not be ready to hunt. The total supply is near zero. Then go to the GI Heym section and look for Heym largebore SxS double rifles for sale at any price. The number is ZERO.

What you're seeing is a glut of 458WMs, push feeds, 375HHs, etc, etc. There is an infinite supply and always has been. Same for 375 Rugers and 416 Remingtons. Same for rimless double rifles. Same for O/U small bore double rifles in 9.3x74R. 460 Weatherby Push Feeds. Etc. <- These are the items that languish forever that are skewing your hypothesis.

 

[spike.t]

In my previous life a couple of doubles worth north of gbp 30,000.00....plus some in the gbp 5 to 7000 range ...all got used....no way I couldn't use a rifle regardless of its cost....

 

[skydiver386]

I think a lot of the price is caliber dependant. If you don't demand an exotic caliber or a double rifle, a functional Safari rifle in one of the 375 or 416's can be had for less than 3k new. CZ 550's, M70's and Ruger's that have seen some use can be had for $1,500 on occasion.

Once you ask for a more exotic chamberings, that involves a talented gunsmith, or small custom factory. Good stock makers don't come cheap either.

Companies like ParkWest offer a very nice product at an excellent price point, especially compared to a Rigby or H&H. The market is down right now, and good deals can be found, but in the future small custom houses
will be where our sons buy Safari rifles. The race to the bottom will take most of the big factories out, leaving the small custom houses with a wider share of the market.

Just as an FYI, I've purchased several Safari rifles in the last year, and I'm looking to buy more.
CZ 550 375 H&H
CZ 550 416 Rigby
BRNO 602 458 Lott
CZ Custom 450 Rigby
Jerrett Custom CZ 550 450 Rigby

 

[Hogpatrol]

I have $2200 in parts for one custom pg rifle. If you were to buy it from an outfit like Gunwerks or another build to order company, it'd be north of $5000.

 

[uplander01]

Your survey this morning had 8 respondents, HALF of them spent over $30k on a rifle. I think you've got two misguided assumptions:

1.) That people who buy $30k rifles are either A.) Rich, B.) Collectors, or C.) at that pricepoint they are buying gold, fancy wood, and engraving, rather than buying reliability.

2.) You're also assuming there is a glut of rifles on the market suitable for Dangerous Game hunting. The supply is very bleak in particular calibers that are in demand. Go over to GI and look at how many 500 Jeff and 505 Gibbs rifles are available in TOTAL. Then filter out the not trustworthy customs on CZ actions that may or may not be ready to hunt. The total supply is near zero. Then go to the GI Heym section and look for Heym largebore SxS double rifles for sale at any price. The number is ZERO.

What you're seeing is a glut of 458WMs, push feeds, 375HHs, etc, etc. There is an infinite supply and always has been. Same for 375 Rugers and 416 Remingtons. Same for rimless double rifles. Same for O/U small bore double rifles in 9.3x74R. 460 Weatherby Push Feeds. Etc. <- These are the items that languish forever that are skewing your hypothesis.

I beg to differ sir, no assumptions at all....I know guys that can't afford a truck payment yet have a 10k rifle in their possession for hunting. In the African Safari Magazine Rifle section of GI there is enormous amount of safari type 37-40-Something caliber rifles,.....by far more popular than the 500's. 500's imo are an exotic and not many guys will ever be in the market for one much less ever intend to use one. That being said here is what I see on the 1st two pages of that section, all very expensive rifles:

Rigby-34
HH-3
G & H-2
Breeding-2
Prechtl-2
Jeffery-4
Full Custom Makers-8
Gibbs-1

All of these are ready to go.

Your example of Heym is exactly correct, they would be an example of a company that is "under producing" on purpose, pretty much only building to order, probably a really smart way to do it. When it comes to doubles, there are far less units in total to begin with,...and the English builders are 2-3 years behind. In my mind those guns are all going to the upper crust of what we are talking about here....similar to the 500's.....small, small, small, market. This middle market is what I find fascinating.