To be honest mdwest, I have a very, very different opinion on the current economic environment than you do.
Additionally, you are the only person all year who I've experienced having this particular opinion. I say that very seriously.
From where I'm sitting, things are only really 'good' for those who have large amounts invested in the stock market, and rely on that as their primary source of income. I'm doing ok in that environment, and I'm sure you are as well.
But I also work for a beer company, and trends there paint a different story. Same as for every FMCG company.
To put it simply, 'Joe 6 pack' can't afford a 6 pack anymore. Or at least, doesn't feel secure enough in his finances, or his job, to buy one.
Why does that matter? Well, FMCG is a pretty good measure of consumer sentiment for a couple of reasons.
1. The category is universally consumed by all socioeconomic classes.
2. It's a repeating purchase item. People need to buy groceries, what are they buying? Are they trying to economize? what discretionary items are they willing to buy?
3. Beer specifically is a good marker for 'vibes' as well. Are people going out for a beer with friends? Are they hosting a cook out? Are they watching sporting events? Do they feel comfortable spending money on 'fun'?
For beer, the industry is down about 3% this year, some companies more than others. Craft has been decimated. It's the expensive premium choice, and people can't afford it anymore. Input prices are through the roof as well, aluminium tariffs alone are a couple cents a can in additional pain, if nothing else.
The company whom I work for is doing a little better because we have a strong portfolio of economy brands, which many of our consumers who used to buy 'premium domestic' are trading into. As a result, we've only cut headcount by 8% this year...
Other FMCG companies are seeing the same thing.
Here's Q&A for KraftHeinz in Q3 25:
https://ir.kraftheinzcompany.com/me...5_KHC_QA_Transcript_v1.pdf?disposition=inline
Here's Coca Cola (The BofA question on page 16 is telling):
https://ir.kraftheinzcompany.com/me...5_KHC_QA_Transcript_v1.pdf?disposition=inline
PepsiCo (The WellsFargo question on P15 is informative):
https://www.pepsico.com/docs/pepsico-5v9wci20/media/Files/investors/q3-2025-pep_transcript.pdf
Mondelez (Up in every business unit, except the US):
https://ir.mondelezinternational.co...ondelez-international-reports-q3-2025-results
P&G:
https://us.pg.com/blogs/pg-earnings-third-quarter-2025/
Predictably this has lead to a couple of CEO changes, and pretty much universal lay offs across the food and beverage industry. But if people don't have expendable income, and have no confidence in the economy, or job security, or the future, then what can you really do?
Consumer Confidence in the United States increased to 54 points in January from 52.90 points in December of 2025. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction...
tradingeconomics.com
Worries over job security are fueling declining confidence among the well-off.
fortune.com
This isn't exclusively a 'Trump' thing, 2024 wasn't a good year either. But this idea that 'things were terrible 12 months ago, and now they're great' is pure fantasy. Or at least pure political bias. Nothing has materially changed. Or at least, nothing has changed for the better.
Interest rates ARE down, no denying that, so that's one win... but debt loads are climbing.
Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households
www.newyorkfed.org
Wages aren't growing. Inflation has slowed, but it's still driving up prices for consumers who still haven't caught up from the last 5 years. Nobody has any confidence in the economy. Job security is shaky. Nobody has expendable income. Unemployment, whilst still low, is rising.
But so long as the AI bubble keeps propping up the stock market, most on this forum will continue to be increasingly comfortable. Good for us.
I'd note that's been true through 2023, 2024 as well, when you lot were all saying how terrible the economy was. If I was mean, I'd call that hypocrisy.
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But either way, the top couple of % of households doesn't make up an economy...