Politics

Usa oil industry taking a bit of a beating.....presume the other oil producing countries are trying to screw with usa production due to it being more expensive to recover?...


Trump asked OPEC to increase production.
I think the strategy to increase production is to harm Russia and Iran.

Sanctions on those buying oil from Iran and Russia are going to be increased. (One area Tariffs are effective).

The problem is the small producers. They can not ride out periods of less than $60 oil

And laws dictate that a well not operating must be filled with concrete usually within a year. Which very expensive. And then when oil prices come back. That well is useless.
 
Trump asked OPEC to increase production.
I think the strategy to increase production is to harm Russia and Iran.

Sanctions on those buying oil from Iran and Russia are going to be increased. (One area Tariffs are effective).

The problem is the small producers. They can not ride out periods of less than $60 oil

And laws dictate that a well not operating must be filled with concrete usually within a year. Which very expensive. And then when oil prices come back. That well is useless.
A lot of factors to be considered though. No matter the size of the producer, lift cost is king. Heavily dependent on the type of field/well. A properly run field may have lift costs of $25 a bbl or $45 a bbl through no fault of the operator. If things get bad I can either shut something down or store oil for a while.

An incompetently run operation may have ridiculous lift costs and may indeed not be able to survive sub $60 bbl oil.

On plugging I think it varies some on the time requirement but it’s also not a get this down right now type of deal (most of the time, again it varies). You really just need to prove you’re trying to produce it. Varies again, dependent upon the type of well/lease and goals.

Times like these are when wells go on sale though. Just like a dip in the market. Helps for an operator to have cash on hand.
 
Early this morning the Special Operations elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out what may have been the most successful attack on Russian aviation assets since the Luftwaffe caught the Soviet air force on the ground on June 22, 1941. UA is currently officially claiming the destruction of more than 40 aircraft including A-50, TU-95, and TU-22 variants on at least four major airbases.

Details are still emerging, but apparently SOF successfully drove large trucks to areas near major bases from which swarms of drones were launched to attack individual aircraft. Focus seems to have been strategic transport, command and control, and bomber aircraft. Apparently the trucks then self-destructed following the attack.

Video clips indicate that the individual drones were manually flown to targets indicating a very sophisticated communications system was utilized. Below are some initial clips and photos from both Russian and Ukrainian sources. The little thug in the Kremlin will not be pleased.





 
Early this morning the Special Operations elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out what may have been the most successful attack on Russian aviation assets since the Luftwaffe caught the Soviet air force on the ground on June 22, 1941. UA is currently officially claiming the destruction of more than 40 aircraft including A-50, TU-95, and TU-22 variants on at least four major airbases.

Details are still emerging, but apparently SOF successfully drove large trucks to areas near major bases from which swarms of drones were launched to attack individual aircraft. Focus seems to have been strategic transport, command and control, and bomber aircraft. Apparently the trucks then self-destructed following the attack.

Video clips indicate that the individual drones were manually flown to targets indicating a very sophisticated communications system was utilized. Below are some initial clips and photos from both Russian and Ukrainian sources. The little thug in the Kremlin will not be pleased.





I wish them (Ukraine SF) gods speed home
 
I wish them (Ukraine SF) gods speed home
What an innovative operation.

I almost hate posting this at breakfast time in the States. The videos will no doubt prove unsettling to some of our more dedicated Russian apologists.
 
Europe now allows the use of longer range weapons use on Russia. A lot Too Late.

I have thought for a while and am now leaning even more towards the idea that Trump was briefed and is following the Obama Ukraine doctrine.

“Let them Duke it out until Russia is in ruins.”

Knowing that Putin signing a ceasefire does nothing but allow him time to re arm for his next attack. There is a long tradition of keeping things riled up and keeping enemies fighting each other. Nothing new in that regard.
 
Apparently, the primary Russian Navy port near Murmansk for its SLBM capable nuclear submarine fleet was also struck at the same time. I have yet to see any battle damage assessments from that attack.


It looks like the Russian strategic bomber fleet literally may no longer exist as a meaningful threat. They only had 25 to 30 TU 22 variants designed to carry cruise missiles - conventional or nuclear. They were the primary platform launching cruise missiles into Ukraine and would be used to launch nuclear tipped ones against the US and Western Europe.
 
Apparently, the primary Russian Navy port near Murmansk for its SLBM capable nuclear submarine fleet was also struck at the same time. I have yet to see any battle damage assessments from that attack.


It looks like the Russian strategic bomber fleet literally may no longer exist as a meaningful threat. They only had 25 to 30 TU 22 variants designed to carry cruise missiles - conventional or nuclear. They were the primary platform launching cruise missiles into Ukraine and would be used to launch nuclear tipped ones against the US and Western Europe.
That- if true- has strategic implications

Not just for a regional war
 
That- if true- has strategic implications

Not just for a regional war
Reminds me, a little, of the early SAS / LRDG opps in N Africa

All change in terms of technology

No change in terms of human courage, commitment and enterprise

SOE was no different- an unimaginable quiet lonely courage of ordinary people
 
Europe now allows the use of longer range weapons use on Russia. A lot Too Late.

I have thought for a while and am now leaning even more towards the idea that Trump was briefed and is following the Obama Ukraine doctrine.

“Let them Duke it out until Russia is in ruins.”

Knowing that Putin signing a ceasefire does nothing but allow him time to re arm for his next attack. There is a long tradition of keeping things riled up and keeping enemies fighting each other. Nothing new in that regard.

While the Europeans havent been as openly supportive of that doctrine, they in many ways have followed it as well... while I don't agree with it, I can understand its appeal..

Prior to Russia invading Ukraine this most recent time, while Russia was clearly the larger and more concerning military threat, Ukraine was very rightfully so, seen as a major cyber threat to both the US and to Europe.. Not only did Ukraine actively and routinely participate in state sponsored cyber attacks on US and European businesses and the US and European governments, many of the Russian state sponsored criminal elements that regularly attack the US and European government and businesses were manned/staffed by Ukranians.. Cyber offensive operations (criminal) is something the Ukrainians have had a global reputation for since cyber became a thing..

Its not a coincidence that the shift in Cyber offensive operations against the US and Europe has moved away from Russia and Ukraine to China and North Korea over the last 3 years and that huge cyber criminal elements like Conti Group (Russian sponsored, but largely Ukranian staffed) have all but fallen by the wayside as the two countries obviously don't get along even at the civilian level anymore, and most of the people with the sort of skills necessary to conduct offensive cyber operations have a new focus and/or have been killed..

I would imagine when the war first started many of the discussions within the most senior offices of the EU, UK, other European countries, and the US involved the idea of supporting Ukraine just enough to let both sides get hammered and destroy each others cyber capabilities.. and once that happened, then we move in and support Ukraine to the degree that other national interests are furthered..

One of my greatest concerns in this conflict is.. while their cities are decimated, their people are being killed in large numbers, their economy is in ruin, etc.. Ukrainian and Russian personnel are getting BETTER at things like cyber warfare, drone warfare, etc.. and may emerge as an even greater threat (in time) once the war ends.. right now their focus is on each other..

What happens when the next generation of Ukraninan and Russian cyber geeks have nothing better to do than attack the US Federal Reserve, the State of Ohio, and Citi Bank.. and are motivated by a foreign government offering to fatten their wallets?
 
Our daughter and her fiance, both Ukranian nationals, were helping me on the farm yesterday. He was sharing video of bomb strikes into civilian neighborhoods taken from his family’s flat in Kiev. The Russian leaders making these decisions are truly butchers. It would warm my heart to see UA SF find a way to get to those bastards.
 
While the Europeans havent been as openly supportive of that doctrine, they in many ways have followed it as well... while I don't agree with it, I can understand its appeal..

Prior to Russia invading Ukraine this most recent time, while Russia was clearly the larger and more concerning military threat, Ukraine was very rightfully so, seen as a major cyber threat to both the US and to Europe.. Not only did Ukraine actively and routinely participate in state sponsored cyber attacks on US and European businesses and the US and European governments, many of the Russian state sponsored criminal elements that regularly attack the US and European government and businesses were manned/staffed by Ukranians.. Cyber offensive operations (criminal) is something the Ukrainians have had a global reputation for since cyber became a thing..

Its not a coincidence that the shift in Cyber offensive operations against the US and Europe has moved away from Russia and Ukraine to China and North Korea over the last 3 years and that huge cyber criminal elements like Conti Group (Russian sponsored, but largely Ukranian staffed) have all but fallen by the wayside as the two countries obviously don't get along even at the civilian level anymore, and most of the people with the sort of skills necessary to conduct offensive cyber operations have a new focus and/or have been killed..

I would imagine when the war first started many of the discussions within the most senior offices of the EU, UK, other European countries, and the US involved the idea of supporting Ukraine just enough to let both sides get hammered and destroy each others cyber capabilities.. and once that happened, then we move in and support Ukraine to the degree that other national interests are furthered..

One of my greatest concerns in this conflict is.. while their cities are decimated, their people are being killed in large numbers, their economy is in ruin, etc.. Ukrainian and Russian personnel are getting BETTER at things like cyber warfare, drone warfare, etc.. and may emerge as an even greater threat (in time) once the war ends.. right now their focus is on each other..

What happens when the next generation of Ukraninan and Russian cyber geeks have nothing better to do than attack the US Federal Reserve, the State of Ohio, and Citi Bank.. and are motivated by a foreign government offering to fatten their wallets?
Exactly, it’s a fact that we have a terrible record on predicting with who or where our next Hot War will be. It’s as likely as not that it will be Ukraine in a decade or two.

One historical predictor is whoever we are covertly or openly backing is usually on the enemy list a decade or two later. And there are always a few leading indicators.

You could say that of course, eventually the needle spins around and we’re going to end up in hostilities with former allies, but it seems to point back to certain trends, and other nations tend to stay off the list.
 
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Apparently, the primary Russian Navy port near Murmansk for its SLBM capable nuclear submarine fleet was also struck at the same time. I have yet to see any battle damage assessments from that attack.


It looks like the Russian strategic bomber fleet literally may no longer exist as a meaningful threat. They only had 25 to 30 TU 22 variants designed to carry cruise missiles - conventional or nuclear. They were the primary platform launching cruise missiles into Ukraine and would be used to launch nuclear tipped ones against the US and Western Europe.
Some folks have been busy! Some bridges are down too. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7zjy89304o
 
Exactly, it’s a fact that we have a terrible record on predicting with who or where our next Hot War will be. It’s as likely as not that it will be Ukraine in a decade or two.

One historical predictor is whoever we are covertly or openly backing is usually on the enemy list a decade or two later. And there are always a few leading indicators.

You could say that of course, eventually the needle spins around and we’re going to end up in hostilities with former allies, but it seems to point back to certain trends, and other nations tend to stay off the list.
I am not sure about that generalization, or perhaps I misunderstood it. Yes, there are some instances, particularly during our more recent nation building efforts. But, the relationship with Europe generally and the UK especially (over a century) has been both open and stable for a rather long time (of course Trump could screw that up royally). The same can be said for Central Europe since 1990. Much the same holds true for most of the Far East outside China, particularly post Vietnam. The Middle East is a nest of Vipers, but if we exclude the invasion of Iraq, we have managed that region far better than our foes - at least to date.
 
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I am not sure about that generalization, or perhaps I misunderstood it. Yes, there are some instances, particularly during our more recent nation building efforts. But, the relationship with Europe generally and the UK especially (over a century) has been both open and stable for a rather long time (of course Trump could screw that up royally). The same can be said for Central Europe since 1990. Much the same holds true for most of the Far East outside China, particularly post Vietnam. The Middle East is a nest of Vipers, but if we exclude the invasion of Iraq, we have managed that region far better than our foes - at least to date.

I agree, I was speaking of South America, Iraq/Iran war, Libya and other African countries. And most of the former Soviet block nations.
 

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