Politics

[skydiver386]

It’s reported that multiple cadets took him down. One had a knife on him and used it to kill the attacker.

He got the Richard Reid treatment.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I thought their nuclear capacity wa obliterated last year?

It wasn’t unfortunately. Set back from weeks to a bomb yes. Obliterated no.. Sounds like they had enough 60% uranium to get to 10 or so bombs rather quickly. Negotiations did not work. Gotta do what you gotta do.

 

[RLD]

So when a Tomahawk strike a girl school killing 200 in Tehran you just shrug your shoulders..

Imagine if ISIS obliterated an elementary scool in America.

I am not impressed at all by this war, and don't understand the thinking behind it, but I am quite confident that literally no one wanted that to happen. It was unfortunate, it might even be misfeasance, but it is surely not malfeasance.

 

[RLD]

It wasn’t unfortunately. Set back from weeks to a bomb to apparently around a year to a bomb. Sounds like they had enough 60% uranium to get to 10 or so bombs rather quickly. Negotiations did not work. Gotta do what you gotta do.

If you are correct, then that is a rational to once again destroy their nuclear capacity. You are right that you cannot negotiate effectively with radical fanatics (I know because I have been involved with very similar processes).

However, I am not sure that there is a clear rational for killing their head of state and destroying their navy, targeting the Revolutionary Guard etc, unless this is a regime change operation.

 

[Red Leg]

Iran was far from being able to put together a nuclear weapon. Mossad knew that. CIA knew that..

The administration is lying to you...

I have been following your diatribe, but will interject here. I do not know a serious commentator that does not believe that Iran has the ability and intent to create a nuclear weapon. The only actual debate is the timeline. If the US is successful in preventing that from happening, then it will be well worth a relatively brief period of unsettled energy markets. To do nothing would guarantee a far longer period where not only the Arab Gulf, but also sophisticated Europe, would live under the perpetual blackmail of messianic aggressive state that literally rejects our right to exist. Of one thing I am absolutely certain, Europe would be able to do nothing at all to redress that issue at that point.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

If you are correct, then that is a rational to once again destroy their nuclear capacity. You are right that you cannot negotiate effectively with radical fanatics (I know because I have been involved with very similar processes).

However, I am not sure that there is a clear rational for killing their head of state and destroying their navy, targeting the Revolutionary Guard etc, unless this is a regime change operation.

I think it’s both. We’ve been dealing with this regime for decades. Enough is enough

 

[RLD]

I think it’s both. We’ve been dealing with this regime for decades. Enough is enough

While I understand the frustration and the moral imperative, I think the wider breakdown of international order these types of events create and deepening hostility this will cause against the United States and the West will not bode well in the long term.

 

[Red Leg]

If you are correct, then that is a rational to once again destroy their nuclear capacity. You are right that you cannot negotiate effectively with radical fanatics (I know because I have been involved with very similar processes).

However, I am not sure that there is a clear rational for killing their head of state and destroying their navy, targeting the Revolutionary Guard etc, unless this is a regime change operation.

I believe the correct way to describe the intent of US actions is to inflict such a level of destruction on the Regime, its coercive foundation of power and its potential to export that power that any Iranian regional ambitions are set back a meaningful period of time. That intent has as another potential outcome the weakening of the regime to such an extent that an alternative base of power overthrows the government. That could take the simple form of a more moderate and domestically focused cleric, a military coup, or a popular government and new constitution. I rather imagine the administration would be delighted with either of the three, but satisfied with the former.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

While I understand the frustration and the moral imperative, I think the wider breakdown of international order these types of events create and deepening hostility this will cause against the United States and the West will not bode well in the long term.

Iran has only a handful of allies. I don’t think they’re going to come rushing to their aid. No one is going to mourn the loss of Iran on the world stage

 

[RLD]

I believe the correct way to describe the intent of US actions is to inflict such a level of destruction on the Regime, its coercive foundation of power and its potential to export that power that any Iranian regional ambitions are set back a meaningful period of time. That intent has as another potential outcome the weakening of the regime to such an extent that an alternative base of power overthrows the government. That could take the simple form of a more moderate and domestically focused cleric, a military coup, or a popular government and new constitution. I rather imagine the administration would be delighted with either of the three, but satisfied with the former.

If this is true, and it is certainly not what the administration has been saying, than the ambitions go far beyond simple elimination of nuclear capacity. No wonder Vance is upset.

And an external attack on a nation is a terribly ineffective way to reduce it's internal coercive power. It simply gives a more aggressive rational to cracking down on internal dissent. We have already seen it. The regime has been very clear that if people now protest they are following Trump's directions to overthrow the government making dissent treasonous (ie supporting a hostile foreign power) and unpatriotic. I would be very surprised if it works.

 

[Aaron N]

Does 9/11 ring a bell, Einstein?

Wasn’t 9/11 the saudis?

 

[RLD]

Iran has only a handful of allies. I don’t think they’re going to come rushing to their aid. No one is going to mourn the loss of Iran on the world stage

Not directly.

But I get the sense that the europeans, particularly the Ukrainians, are mourning the lifting of oil sanctions on Russia.

And despite certain recent pronouncements, India is still buying oil from Russia.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I feel strongly that Vance was a bad VP pick. He’s more of an isolationist. He’s undermined Trump before. I expect he’ll do it again.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

Not directly.

But I get the sense that the europeans, particularly the Ukrainians, are mourning the lifting of oil sanctions on Russia.

And despite certain recent pronouncements, India is still buying oil from Russia.

The lifting of sanctions was a bad move. Gotta keep gas prices down for people like @Pondoro. Just like not escorting tankers (yet). Isn’t Europe still buying gas from Russia?

 

[RLD]

I feel strongly that Vance was a bad VP pick. He’s more of an isolationist. He’s undermined Trump before. I expect he’ll do it again.

I agree he was a bad pick. I thought Rubio would have been far better.

But oddly, I was under the impression that Trump was an isolationist as well. It certainly doesn't look that way anymore.

 

[mdwest]

So when a Tomahawk strike a girl school killing 200 in Tehran you just shrug your shoulders..

Imagine if ISIS obliterated an elementary scool in America.

Since 9/11 549 Americans have died in terror attacks on US soil. Prior to 9/11 the number is much higher. The overwhelming majority of those attacks were conducted by Islamic jihadists.

When the Boston marathon bomb went off.. did you just shrug your shoulders?

Or did you pay enough attention to know about the San Bernardino attack in 2015 where 14 people were killed?

How about the New Orleans truck attack in 2025 that killed 14?

Perhaps you think the Ft Hood terror attack doesn’t count because it happened on a military base (not everyone that died was in the military… one was an unborn baby)..

Then let’s think about Europe for a moment…

The Madrid train bombings…193 killed.. almost 2000 injured..

London bombings… 56 killed… 784 injured…

Charlie Hebdo attacks in France.. 20 killed..56 injured..

Nov 2015 Paris attacks 137 killed 417 injured

2016 Brussels bombing… 35 killed

Niece France … 87 killed

How about the Berlin Christmas Market? 13 killed..

Manchester bombing.. 23 killed.. 250 injured..

Barcelona attacks.. 24 killed…152 injured…

All Islamist extremism attacks…


No… no one just shrugs their shoulders and doesn’t care about 200 children dying… that’s a preposterous and frankly disingenuous statement that makes you look like a screaming crying fool… I can assure you that it does nothing to help you gain any respect or make anyone care about your positions or concerns…

It is a very unfortunate fact that in war, people die.. often innocent people die… that is a simple and easy to understand truth…

Another fact is that the US goes well out of its way to avoid those sort of mishaps and considering the amount of ordnance that’s been dropped so far, only having one account at this point is actually a blessing… it could be a lot worse… if another country with less intelligence and less military capability were conducting the attacks it would be without a doubt much worse…

And yet another fact… if you don’t want to be attacked… dont push your luck for 47 years with a global superpower… 47 years of state sponsored terrorism and proxy wars conducted by Iran I think is enough… and.. it would appear that most of the world agrees…

Regarding your reoccurring tripe over $1b a day being spent… it’s our money… your country isn’t spending a dime…

Should we all start shouting and raising hell about all the instance social welfare bullshit your country spends its money on? Or do you think that’s your business, and not ours?

Why exactly would you think the US cares at all about your opinion on how it spends money?

If your truthful with yourself… your country couldn’t afford $1b a day… the US can… the math is simple..

The US spent roughly $300m per day in Afghanistan for 20 years… we spent $2.4 trillion for the duration in Iraq…

Our economy can sustain $1b a day for a very long time… if we determine ridding the world of the problem of Iranian terrorism and nuclear pursuit is in our strategic interest… it’s actually a pretty small price to pay in the scope of things…

And… there’s no indication this will be a long war… most are predicting it’s over in a few weeks… so… $1b a day becomes even less consequential..

 

[Aaron N]

I feel strongly that Vance was a bad VP pick. He’s more of an isolationist. He’s undermined Trump before. I expect he’ll do it again.

I’d say Vance was a bad pick because he showed that he had zero integrity when he bowed and kissed the ring of the man he earlier called a nazi. I’m not saying I agree or disagree with him, but that’s a Texas sized flip flop

 

[RLD]

Isn’t Europe still buying gas from Russia?

Kind of?

It's hard to lump europe together. Most of europe no longer buys oil from Russia, and buys almost no LNG from them either. However I think Hungary and one or two other outliers still do. Hungary obviously does not fit the typical EU mold.

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I agree he was a bad pick. I thought Rubio would have been far better.

But oddly, I was under the impression that Trump was an isolationist as well. It certainly doesn't look that way anymore.

Rubio has really impressed me this go around. Very solid guy.

I think Trump just believes in walking softly and carrying a big stick. He doesn’t believe in nation building. I think this operation will be over sooner rather than later. He knows it’ll hurt us in the mid terms if it lasts till then.

Americans have the memory of a hamster so if he can end this months before the midterms then we will suffer a lesser defeat or no defeat. Democrats have the worst ratings of anyone so there’s hope if Trump can finish this quickly

 

[Wishfulthinker580]

I’d say Vance was a bad pick because he showed that he had zero integrity when he bowed and kissed the ring of the man he earlier called a nazi. I’m not saying I agree or disagree with him, but that’s a Texas sized flip flop

I don’t disagree. I’m not a fan of isolationists or libertarians and I think he’s both. Sort of a snake in the grass IMHO.