Politics

One thing is clear about this Iran operation and to some degree the Maduro extraction, so far shows no internal leaks. Apparently Trump has successfully expunged most all the traitors out of his inner circle. Imagine if Vindman, Mark Milley or even Mark Kelly were part of the planning! They would have been calling to warn their counterparts in Tehran.

Pondoro said:

I strongly suggest you people fill up your cars with fuel..and perhaps hoard some..

The crude price will soar on monday.. God knows for how long.. Tankers are now piling up at both sides of Hormuz..

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Probably depends on where you live. My local station was $.15/gallon cheaper this morning than it was yesterday.

America has come a long way since Obama sent pallets of cash and let Iran do this to our sailors.

Red Leg said:

No

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That does sound reassuring coming from you. I got a bit concerned because I’ve read that there are or at least was plans on the Iranian side to simply overwhelm the SPY radar/Aegis system with drones and then send in ballistic missiles. I assume that the SPY-radar can handle a very large number of targets simultaneously, but it might eventually run out of ordnance? I’m guessing there aren’t unlimited numbers of interceptors ready in the VLS tubes on the carrier or its destroyer escorts, and that the CIWS probably can’t handle an unlimited number of targets at once either.

If the media is to be believed, the Iranians may have as many as 80,000 drones in storage.

Inflation coming..... ..bloody hope not...

KJE81 said:

That does sound reassuring coming from you. I got a bit concerned because I’ve read that there are or at least was plans on the Iranian side to simply overwhelm the SPY radar/Aegis system with drones and then send in ballistic missiles. I assume that the SPY-radar can handle a very large number of targets simultaneously, but it might eventually run out of ordnance? I’m guessing there aren’t unlimited numbers of interceptors ready in the VLS tubes on the carrier or its destroyer escorts, and that the CIWS probably can’t handle an unlimited number of targets at once either.

If the media is to be believed, the Iranians may have as many as 80,000 drones in storage.

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Or…they DID have 80k in storage.

Doug3006 said:

Or…they DID have 80k in storage.

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I was about to post this exact same thing, but knew you guys wouldn't let me down so decided to keep reading.

Also, they did have the ability to produce 400 drones a day.

KJE81 said:

That does sound reassuring coming from you. I got a bit concerned because I’ve read that there are or at least was plans on the Iranian side to simply overwhelm the SPY radar/Aegis system with drones and then send in ballistic missiles. I assume that the SPY-radar can handle a very large number of targets simultaneously, but it might eventually run out of ordnance? I’m guessing there aren’t unlimited numbers of interceptors ready in the VLS tubes on the carrier or its destroyer escorts, and that the CIWS probably can’t handle an unlimited number of targets at once either.

If the media is to be believed, the Iranians may have as many as 80,000 drones in storage.

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Even a carrier is a very difficult target to find - particularly for a third world power. First the Iranians have to locate the battle group using recon drones (A manned aircraft would simply be a target for the battle group's CAP.) Those drones would have to survive long enough to close with and ID the target. Then the drone, if it survives that long, has to communicate that in formation to the anti-ship (which are not ballistic) missile launch unit or command center. That too is very difficult in an environment where the battle group and strategic assets are intercepting and jamming every signal (even frequency hopping) - a catalogue of which NSA will have been collecting constantly. If all that should somehow go correctly, they would then have to mass a swarm of Shahads or their equivalent for a simultaneous launch against the last known location of the ship. Such drones are subsonic and we can assume the battle group is at least 100 Nm offshore cruising at a minimum of twenty knots, and far faster should an attack be detected. Under such real world conditions, GPS guidance is pretty useless and no command guidance or wire guidance works at that range. So it is very unlikely, a swarm will ever appear coming over the horizon.

The anti-ship missiles do have radar-based terminal guidance. As we saw with the Moskov, an anti-ship missile can fly that far and achieve lock. So, if a general target area can be provided, it is possible that such missiles could engage a target. However, against a US fleet asset, what is far more likely is that the launch would be detected by national means, immediately identified, and notification made. The battle group or another national asset would then identify the seeker frequency(ies) and begin targeted jamming as would assets within the battle group. It is extremely unlikely that the anti-ship missiles would ever achieve lock. And as you note, should all of that somehow fail, the battle group’s layered anti-air assets are waiting.

Could the Ford or Lincoln be hit? Yes, but it would take a catastrophic layer of failures for that to occur.

skydiver386 said:

Without some means of coercive power, such as firearms, or a Militia group composed of Iranian people fighting on their behalf, the people of Iran have no physical means to overthrow the Government in Tehran.

Iran was taken hostage by a minority of violent militia's, many if not most of them composed of non Farsi speaking foreigners. This is how the leadership in Tehran has held power over the people of Iran since 1979.

There is a shadow Government in the form of Prince Reza Pahlavi, but so far not one single source has identified any armed group of Iranians that will take the fight to the Militia's composed of Zealots that have terrorized Iran for the last 47 years.

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Why can't we supply small arms in bulk?

steve white said:

Why can't we supply small arms in bulk?

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As @mdwest noted we could. But we have to have an organized group to receive them. We were very successful way back during the Regan administration supplying the Mujahadin and the Contras. We have far more capability now. But that organized resistance group has yet to raise its head = at least where we can see it in this information space.

steve white said:

Why can't we supply small arms in bulk?

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We can…

The question is whether or not we want to incur the risk, and who do we know that we trust that can lead the resistance group(s)…

Dumping 5000 AKs in Iran could be the worst thing we could possibly do if we don’t absolutely control who gets every one of them and know 100% for certain that the people that get them are a) willing to actually fight and b) capable of fighting…

Edited to add: @Red Leg and I were posting at the same time..

steve white said:

Why can't we supply small arms in bulk?

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Absolutely. There is precedent.

It looks like the initial strikes during the first 24 hours were carried out primarily by sea, ground, and air launched cruise missiles. With the Iranian air defenses significantly degraded, the B-2's were apparently on the prowl last night with primary targets being the Iranian missile storage facilities. They do not need the heavy penetrators needed for the nuclear sites to close or destroy these stockpiles. Normal 1k and 2k penetrators would reach most of them, and as the article suggests, pulling the mountain down over the entrance takes them off the table for this campaign. More are likely there right now.

As a by the way, it is ridiculous we only have twenty of these. George H. W. Bush curtailed production in the early nineties from 132 to 20 because we would never have a need for them with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Its replacement is the the B-21 and is just entering low rate production. Though similar in appearance, it is as revolutionary as its predecessor. We'll see if it survives the next administration.

fourfive8 said:

Certainly looks like the booster portion, possibly sans the warhead or payload section, of a fairly large missile to me.

Also pay close attention to the B roll video supplied to the news outlets by the DOW. Most clearly show the pulsing laser painting used by the guided munitions. Watching the munitions hit spot on the laser paint is telling!

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Didn’t see that you have a screen shot? Cheers

fourfive8 said:

Certainly looks like the booster portion, possibly sans the warhead or payload section, of a fairly large missile to me.

Also pay close attention to the B roll video supplied to the news outlets by the DOW. Most clearly show the pulsing laser painting used by the guided munitions. Watching the munitions hit spot on the laser paint is telling!

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Thanks for that really interesting!
Sorry our government here in the UK are being such a bunch of pussy!

Red Leg said:

It looks like the initial strikes during the first 24 hours were carried out primarily by sea, ground, and air launched cruise missiles. With the Iranian air defenses significantly degraded, the B-2's were apparently on the prowl last night with primary targets being the Iranian missile storage facilities. They do not need the heavy penetrators needed for the nuclear sites to close or destroy these stockpiles. Normal 1k and 2k penetrators would reach most of them, and as the article suggests, pulling the mountain down over the entrance takes them off the table for this campaign. More are likely there right now.

As a by the way, it is ridiculous we only have twenty of these. George H. W. Bush curtailed production in the early nineties from 132 to 20 because we would never have a need for them with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Its replacement is the the B-21 and is just entering low rate production. Though similar in appearance, it is as revolutionary as its predecessor. We'll see if it survives the next administration.

B-2 Spirits Join Iran Air War, Pummel Underground Missile Caves (Updated)

The arrival of the B-2s marks a change in the air campaign and will put certain target sets at greater risk as the operation expands.

www.twz.com

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A B2 pilot used to work for my firm at a level where I had regular/routine contact with him… he never disclosed anything classified… but just having casual conversations with him about the birds capabilities that were already out there in the public domain.. and then listening to the implications about how actual performance significantly exceeds what is in the public domain… was astounding…

The USAF general that was the ACC commander when the F22 was rolled out is a very close acquaintance… very similar situation when talking with him about that airframe..

I’ve got to give it to the Air Force… they have the sexiest toys in the US arsenal…

Looks

Sideshow said:

Thanks for that really interesting!
Sorry our government here in the UK are being such a bunch of pussy!

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looks like they heard me

Red Leg said:

It looks like the initial strikes during the first 24 hours were carried out primarily by sea, ground, and air launched cruise missiles. With the Iranian air defenses significantly degraded, the B-2's were apparently on the prowl last night with primary targets being the Iranian missile storage facilities. They do not need the heavy penetrators needed for the nuclear sites to close or destroy these stockpiles. Normal 1k and 2k penetrators would reach most of them, and as the article suggests, pulling the mountain down over the entrance takes them off the table for this campaign. More are likely there right now.

As a by the way, it is ridiculous we only have twenty of these. George H. W. Bush curtailed production in the early nineties from 132 to 20 because we would never have a need for them with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Its replacement is the the B-21 and is just entering low rate production. Though similar in appearance, it is as revolutionary as its predecessor. We'll see if it survives the next administration.

B-2 Spirits Join Iran Air War, Pummel Underground Missile Caves (Updated)

The arrival of the B-2s marks a change in the air campaign and will put certain target sets at greater risk as the operation expands.

www.twz.com

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I wonder if they will have another crack at Natanz and the nuclear facility there?

Looks like they have hit the RAF base in Cyprus! Reported explosions heard.

Sideshow said:

I wonder if they will have another crack at Natanz and the nuclear facility there?

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If it is military, security, or nuclear it will be struck multiple times.