Politics

[mdwest]

As I see it there are things in your "set-up" as a society that does a pretty dang good job in making life misrable for many americans. We europeans only sells you nice cars, nice rifles, good watches, hunting optics, make techstuff for your F35, sciencerockets etc. Please don`t blame us for a financial "death spiral".

Id say thats a classic example of a pot calling a kettle black... as I hear a lot of Europeans blaming Americans for all of their woes these days (in this thread fairly often as a matter of fact)...

true that much of Europe doesn't have the same problems (or to the same degree) that the US has...

but to believe Europe is remotely close to some sort of Utopia or is in a better place financially or socially is nothing short of ridiculous..

Theres a reason many financial analysts and economists are already predicting the 2020's to be another "lost decade" for the European economy.. (similar to the 2010 decade that most agree was a complete loss for Europe in terms of any gains to be made in growth or stability.. )...

Despite Europe knowing how to build fine cars, watches, and rifles.. It is hamstrung with low productivity which is a major contributor for its slow growth economy..

Economic policy has contributed in a HUGE way to the economic problems Europe faces (your politicians suck every bit as much as ours).. For example the European Central Bank raised rates an an attempt to combat inflation which in turn negatively impacted economic activity..

Lets not even bother to try to list all of the social issues.. the Human Rights Watch 2024 report goes into great detail about problems tied to mass migrant admission into Europe and how that has spurned issues with discrimination, poverty, inequality, significant issues with the adherence to rule of law, etc..etc..

The US is far from perfect..

But Id venture a guess that there are still far more Europeans wanting to migrate to the US than there are US citizens actively trying to migrate to Europe... other than Rosie O'Donnel.. and Id guess most Americans are pretty happy shes gone, and hope that you guys keep her..

 

[Red Leg]

The other side of it, to be fair, is we've been living with a trade imbalance heavily skewed against us for the last 4 decades, and likely, more. But once again, it wasn't something you were going to fix overnight.

Pretty close. 1975 was the last year with a trade surplus.

 

[Red Leg]

Gold just slipped back below $3K. That is actually probably a good thing.

 

[spike.t]

Threatening another 50% on China....

Trump tariffs latest: Trump threatens extra 50% tariff on China unless it drops retaliatory levy

Turmoil caused by Donald Trump's tariffs continues - but the president urges people not to be "weak" or "stupid".

www.bbc.com

 

[mdwest]

watching some of the nuance issues of the stock market today...

DOW is now down about 2.5%.. I'm guessing it will close a little better than the European and Australian markets did today.. but it'll likely drop more than 3% before the lights are turned off this afternoon..

But look at the VIX and look at whats happening with a handful of key tech stocks today..

For those unfamiliar with VIX, its the Chicago exchange that most use to measure volatility and fear in the markets.. it tracks key stocks and whether they are up or down, and then builds trend analysis to determine how to best navigate fear and volatility.. basically you expect when the typical markets like DOW, S&P, etc are up that VIX is down... and that when DOW/S&P etc are down, VIX goes up.. but they are typically pretty much in line with each other (when they are out of line you should be considering why the market is operating more stability than it should or why it is more volatile than it should be..

the VIX is up 9.25%.. which is WAY out of line compared to the negative performance of the S&P and SOW.. basically saying the market is even more unstable and there is more fear driving the market than the loses in the market demonstrate..

then look at some key stocks in the market... while almost everyone is down by significant numbers, NVIDIA is up 1.62%.. LUCID is up 2.85%, Palantir is up 1.52%, Amazon up .87%, SoFi is up 1.52%...

All tech firms, all having made recent decisions to expand US based operations and/or invest in US manufacturing.. and/or are heavily involved in AI technologies..

there's some curious things going on right now that are being driven by more than just the tariff issue that everyone is concerned about..

 

[Hank2211]

That depends on what your LLM is in.

Corporate finance. From London School of Economics.

 

[SaintPanzer]

watching some of the nuance issues of the stock market today...

DOW is now down about 2.5%.. I'm guessing it will close a little better than the European and Australian markets did today.. but it'll likely drop more than 3% before the lights are turned off this afternoon..

But look at the VIX and look at whats happening with a handful of key tech stocks today..

For those unfamiliar with VIX, its the Chicago exchange that most use to measure volatility and fear in the markets.. it tracks key stocks and whether they are up or down, and then builds trend analysis to determine how to best navigate fear and volatility.. basically you expect when the typical markets like DOW, S&P, etc are up that VIX is down... and that when DOW/S&P etc are down, VIX goes up.. but they are typically pretty much in line with each other (when they are out of line you should be considering why the market is operating more stability than it should or why it is more volatile than it should be..

the VIX is up 9.25%.. which is WAY out of line compared to the negative performance of the S&P and SOW.. basically saying the market is even more unstable and there is more fear driving the market than the loses in the market demonstrate..

then look at some key stocks in the market... while almost everyone is down by significant numbers, NVIDIA is up 1.62%.. LUCID is up 2.85%, Palantir is up 1.52%, Amazon up .87%, SoFi is up 1.52%...

All tech firms, all having made recent decisions to expand US based operations and/or invest in US manufacturing.. and/or are heavily involved in AI technologies..

there's some curious things going on right now that are being driven by more than just the tariff issue that everyone is concerned about..

I think you are hinting at my question.

I understand markets are down. My question is, what part of this is individual trading, and what part could be influenced by algorithms that trade based on market trends? Is any part of this influenced by AI?

 

[Field28]

Idk? I heard some fella on the radio this morning that seemed to be pretty knowledgeable about the Stock Market claim that most panic selling is done by people who shouldn't be in the market in the first place.

He stated, it would be like buying a home for 20k, the next week someone offers you 10k for the same home. Would you sell it or keep it was his point.

 

[wesheltonj]

Corporate finance. From London School of Economics.

Started but never finished International Business Law at University of London. I thought about applying to Duke for their LLM in Judicial Studies but at my advance age, not worth the time and effort.

 

[mdwest]

Trump rejects European Union’s ‘zero-for-zero’ tariff resolution to remove industrial fees on US goods: ‘Not looking at that’

The European Union has floated a “zero-for-zero” tariff resolution with the Trump administration after 20% import levies were imposed by Washington last week.

nypost.com

I have a feeling this is all going to be over a lot sooner than most expected.. and hopefully with news like this the markets will start to stabilize over the next few days..

the EU is offering 0:0 tariffs on all industrial goods.. this would include rubber, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, and vehicles among many, many other things..

Im sure everyone wont come together and get a deal inked for a few weeks.. the EU will try to hold on to some other things or try to slip in a few things that Trump isn't going to like.. and Trump will try to strong arm the EU into caputulating on agricultural products or something else before a final deal is reached..

but the fact that 50+ countries are already lined up asking for meetings to negotiate, and the EU is already publicly stating they are ready to go zero for zero on a huge amount of items should reduce some fear in the market and let things settle down a bit.. (you would hope anyway)..

 

[375 Ruger Fan]

watching some of the nuance issues of the stock market today...

DOW is now down about 2.5%.. I'm guessing it will close a little better than the European and Australian markets did today.. but it'll likely drop more than 3% before the lights are turned off this afternoon..

But look at the VIX and look at whats happening with a handful of key tech stocks today..

For those unfamiliar with VIX, its the Chicago exchange that most use to measure volatility and fear in the markets.. it tracks key stocks and whether they are up or down, and then builds trend analysis to determine how to best navigate fear and volatility.. basically you expect when the typical markets like DOW, S&P, etc are up that VIX is down... and that when DOW/S&P etc are down, VIX goes up.. but they are typically pretty much in line with each other (when they are out of line you should be considering why the market is operating more stability than it should or why it is more volatile than it should be..

the VIX is up 9.25%.. which is WAY out of line compared to the negative performance of the S&P and SOW.. basically saying the market is even more unstable and there is more fear driving the market than the loses in the market demonstrate..

then look at some key stocks in the market... while almost everyone is down by significant numbers, NVIDIA is up 1.62%.. LUCID is up 2.85%, Palantir is up 1.52%, Amazon up .87%, SoFi is up 1.52%...

All tech firms, all having made recent decisions to expand US based operations and/or invest in US manufacturing.. and/or are heavily involved in AI technologies..

there's some curious things going on right now that are being driven by more than just the tariff issue that everyone is concerned about..

VIX is currently in the stratosphere. Low volatility is below 20 to low teens.

 

[HookMeUpII]

Trump rejects European Union’s ‘zero-for-zero’ tariff resolution to remove industrial fees on US goods: ‘Not looking at that’

The European Union has floated a “zero-for-zero” tariff resolution with the Trump administration after 20% import levies were imposed by Washington last week.

nypost.com

I have a feeling this is all going to be over a lot sooner than most expected.. and hopefully with news like this the markets will start to stabilize over the next few days..

the EU is offering 0:0 tariffs on all industrial goods.. this would include rubber, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, and vehicles among many, many other things..

Im sure everyone wont come together and get a deal inked for a few weeks.. the EU will try to hold on to some other things or try to slip in a few things that Trump isn't going to like.. and Trump will try to strong arm the EU into caputulating on agricultural products or something else before a final deal is reached..

but the fact that 50+ countries are already lined up asking for meetings to negotiate, and the EU is already publicly stating they are ready to go zero for zero on a huge amount of items should reduce some fear in the market and let things settle down a bit.. (you would hope anyway)..

What you would HOPE for is an extension of good faith on our end. In your example, we work out a deal, parties agree, and then both agree to suspend any tariffs until the deal is inked entirely.

One would hope....at least.

 

[mdwest]

VIX is currently in the stratosphere. Low volatility is below 20 to low teens.

View attachment 677193

yep.. thats what I was saying..

VIX is telling us that the market is even more unstable, more fear driven, etc.. than the dips its taken over the last 3 business days say it is..

Definitely something to watch and be concerned about...

Definitely weird watching global markets today as well.. Western hemisphere markets look like they're all going to close somewhere between about 1.5 and 2% down.. where China closed down more than 9%, most of Europe closed down more than 4%, etc..etc.. be interesting to see how things shake out tomorrow..

 

[HookMeUpII]

VIX is currently in the stratosphere. Low volatility is below 20 to low teens.

View attachment 677193

I'm only 42, however, I've been in the business for every one of those spikes, post-2000.

A lot of rodeos for someone in the business. Funny thing is, every single one of them felt like it was happening the first time.

Just something you never get used to.

 

[mdwest]

What you would HOPE for is an extension of good faith on our end. In your example, we work out a deal, parties agree, and then both agree to suspend any tariffs until the deal is inked entirely.

One would hope....at least.

We can hope for it.. but Im going to guess that doesn't happen..

The US markets are dumping... but at a pace slower than the European markets... Right now its in Europes best interest to move expeditiously.. every day that passes is another day that things get even worse for them than it does for US investors..

Trump will cling to that like stink on a monkeys balls.. Hes not going to want to give any relief or allow for any time to consider much of anything other than coming to the table from the beginning with an exceptionally good offer..

 

[rookhawk]

As a free market guy (caveat: with equitable trade) I hope Trump demands more than is being offered.

The thing I hate about Canadian and EU trade is all the BS trade barriers for the little guys. I also hate getting tariffed on specialty imports. I hope we can wait for a true zero tariff agreement across the board. Things usually not covered in these trade deals would be wine, cheese, spirits, textiles, dairy, meats, grains, etc.

Crush niche protectionist/socialist schemes in the process of a tariff war. We get ALL their goods without tariff, they get all our goods in turn.

Just my take on it because it’s personally irritating as a consumer or small business owner.

What you would HOPE for is an extension of good faith on our end. In your example, we work out a deal, parties agree, and then both agree to suspend any tariffs until the deal is inked entirely.

One would hope....at least.

 

[Gilgalad]

I understand they may not be the real McCoy but the Chinese are already copying iPhones.

That’s there under the table work, imagine what they would do if the gloves came off?

They’ve already had fake apple stores in China for years, if shit hits the fan they would open shops outside of China in a heartbeat and probably already have contingency plans for it.
This video is 6 years old

I will not be surprised if they have the formular already, They are probably just waiting for apple to leave before they unveil what they have.

 

[mdwest]

Things usually not covered in these trade deals would be wine, cheese, spirits, textiles, dairy, meats, grains, etc.

All of those things are definitely excluded in the current offer (no agriculture related products included at all.. just industrial)..

The French and Italians for example desperately want access to the US wine market.. both countries are getting very nervous, very quickly (multiple articles across numerous news sources).. because sales have plummeted in just the last week.. We normally import almost $2.5B in wine from France every year and about $2.1B in wine from Italy... The French are anticipating a reduction in exports of at least 20% if tariffs remain in place.. The Italians fear their entire industry could collapse on itself and that many wineries could go out of business very quickly.. They only export a little more than $6B globally.. they're looking at losing a huge chunk of what has historically represented 1/3 of their entire global market..

When considering even a 20% reduction on a $2.5B sales volume ($500M).. consider that the US brings in about $290M a year from Australia.. What the French stand to lose is almost double what the Aussies bring in in a single year..

 

[HookMeUpII]

As a free market guy (caveat: with equitable trade) I hope Trump demands more than is being offered.

The thing I hate about Canadian and EU trade is all the BS trade barriers for the little guys. I also hate getting tariffed on specialty imports. I hope we can wait for a true zero tariff agreement across the board. Things usually not covered in these trade deals would be wine, cheese, spirits, textiles, dairy, meats, grains, etc.

Crush niche protectionist/socialist schemes in the process of a tariff war. We get ALL their goods without tariff, they get all our goods in turn.

Just my take on it because it’s personally irritating as a consumer or small business owner.

Depends how much of it starts to end up on your doorstep. My business is directly correlated to the market and economy. This hurts me for sure, but realistically, markets always come back. We may lose a client or two for things beyond our control, income goes down for a bit, but we work hard for our clients and make it back. I'd rather not see it go this way, but what can you do?

A buddy of mine is hardcore right wing (I am a moderate, but GOP entirely). We were talking about the incoming tariffs early last week before they broke. His response was "We need to fix this trade imbalance. Screw them."

Fast forward to last night, he was panicking and completely did a 180 when he realized his weekly shipment was getting hit with $9,600 more than usual in tariffs. He's now thinking this needs to be better handled. He buys fish from all over the world for re-sale to restaurants, markets, etc.

Funny how that goes. For guys like him, I hope they figure this out very quickly. Because, that's not good.

There was no good way of fixing this. This way is definitely not the way. On the other hand, this has been in the works for years with no progress.

In Trump's defense, this is like the friend who's owed you money for drinks at the bar for years. Keeps saying they are getting around to paying you back and never does.

 

[steve white]

Holy cow, I'm 20 odd pages behind on "Politics" and don't have the time to read all that. Anyone want to recap what was important in the last week?