Politics

[VertigoBE]

Your economic assessment is spot on for a Western European or North American. However, I do not believe they think like that at all. Russia is an 18th century empire, for a time disguised as a proletarian utopia, that thinks in terms of vassal states. It is hardly just my assessment that Ukraine would have been dismembered and everything east of the Dnieper and all of the Black Sea coast would have been incorporated into that empire. A rump state with relatively few of those resources worth trading for would have been left.

I do believe paranoia with respect to NATO membership did play a part in the decision process. Obviously, that strategic goal has somewhat boomeranged with a new Finnish NATO frontier in marching distance of St. Petersburg that is already hosting surveillance assets virtually peering into ports of Russia's Northern Fleet - particularly those submarine bases.

I agree that we would not have seen Russian columns attempting to penetrate the Polish and Romanian borders. But I am equally certain we would have seen destabilization efforts across the Balkans fueled by their success in Ukraine.

I don't quite follow you in your assessment of Russia still being an 18th century empire, searching a circle of vassal states around it.

In my encounters with Eastern European and Russian peoples, when they do express themselves clearly, they tend to mean exactly what they say. Putin for years stated: no further NATO expansion towards the east. Russian access to the Black Sea through the Sevastopol maritime base needs to be guaranteed.

It has all boomeranged in a spectacular fashion for them for sure.

I remain convinced that the West should rather seek an acceptable compromise agreement between parties, than letting this conflict run for longer. Sure Russia will weaken further, but is that truly in the West's interest? I'd rather have the Russia from 5 years ago, still incapable of confronting NATO, but at least giving China pause when they will focus their attention towards Siberia. In the mean time an entire country and an entire generation of Ukrainians gets thrown into the grinder.

There is no additional positive position to gain from having this conflict run any longer than it already has.

 

[WAB]

I don’t think Russia needs people or cities to get strategic advantage from Ukraine. Ukraine provides a buffer for military incursion on Russia and secured access to the Black Sea. What may be just as important is food production capability. I have traveled the length and breadth of Ukraine by rail and car. As an Ag professional, I would guess their pre-conflict productivity at somewhere around 25% of its potential. This is not only of huge interest to Russia, but is even more important to their new friends in China. If you tour the ag systems in Northern China in the area of Harlow, you will quickly realize that the Chinese have the technology and personnel to tap into the Ag potential of Ukraine. They don’t need Ukrainians or any ukranian cities to capture this value if they take over the country.

Harkov not Harlow, dang spellcheck.

 

[Newboomer]

I don’t think Russia needs people or cities to get strategic advantage from Ukraine. Ukraine provides a buffer for military incursion on Russia and secured access to the Black Sea. What may be just as important is food production capability. I have traveled the length and breadth of Ukraine by rail and car. As an Ag professional, I would guess their pre-conflict productivity at somewhere around 25% of its potential. This is not only of huge interest to Russia, but is even more important to their new friends in China. If you tour the ag systems in Northern China in the area of Harlow, you will quickly realize that the Chinese have the technology and personnel to tap into the Ag potential of Ukraine. They don’t need Ukrainians or any ukranian cities to capture this value if they take over the country.

I'm beginning to think Russia turning to China is that Russia is realizing it is losing badly and declining at a fast pace. It needs China to bail it out and help keep Russia afloat. An unholy alliance against the free world. An additional step in China's scheme of world dominance.

 

[WAB]

I agree that there is great agricultural potential in the Ukraine.

But turning it into a warzone is just not the most efficient way of tapping into that. It would be a much better deal for Russia to sell them the natural gas that allows them to fertilize better the lands and receive crops in exchange. It makes no sense that this would have been the objective of their invasion.

Perhaps not the primary driver, but I’m certain that it is a consideration. The last time I checked, almost all of the domestically produced nitrogen fertilizer (natural gas derived) was exported. Ukraine is desperately under fertilized and severely lacking in organic matter.

 

[VertigoBE]

Perhaps not the primary driver, but I’m certain that it is a consideration. The last time I checked, almost all of the domestically produced nitrogen fertilizer (natural gas derived) was exported. Ukraine is desperately under fertilized and severely lacking in organic matter.

That is in some ways very surprising to hear...

This would mean they have the sufficient capacity to produce nitrogen fertilizers (due to direct access to Russian gas pipes), but have an economic interest to export rather than use it for their own crop production....

Would you perhaps know who they export the fertilizer to ?

One of my customers is the third largest nitrogen producer in the world. They obviously export a lot, but a big chunk remains for the domestic market in the Netherlands.

 

[WAB]

That is in some ways very surprising to hear...

This would mean they have the sufficient capacity to produce nitrogen fertilizers (due to direct access to Russian gas pipes), but have an economic interest to export rather than use it for their own crop production....

Would you perhaps know who they export the fertilizer to ?

One of my customers is the third largest nitrogen producer in the world. They obviously export a lot, but a big chunk goes to the domestic market in the Netherlands.

When I last looked at the global N balance they were selling on the open market to secure hard currency. It’s a global commodity so it could have been going to any number of customers. It’s kind of like asking ‘who buys Moroccan rock?’

I can tell you for certain, that after walking many fields, their souls are badly denuded.

 

[CoElkHunter]

I'm beginning to think Russia turning to China is that Russia is realizing it is losing badly and declining at a fast pace. It needs China to bail it out and help keep Russia afloat. An unholy alliance against the free world. An additional step in China's scheme of world dominance.

And "wondering" out loud, what has Putin promised Xi for his support of the war on Russia's side? Putin's estimated worth is some $200 BILLION. His henchmen and oligarchs probably have wealth approaching some of that. Other than Putin's failed wet dream of reestablishing some remnants of the USSR, what does Xi have to gain by aligning himself with a failed Russia and a War Criminal in Putin? Maybe Xi is "playing" Putin, just as both of them have been playing our imbecile Brandon and the feckless leaders of European countries for the last several years?

 

[VertigoBE]

When I last looked at the global N balance they were selling on the open market to secure hard currency. It’s a global commodity so it could have been going to any number of customers. It’s kind of like asking ‘who buys Moroccan rock?’

I can tell you for certain, that after walking many fields, their souls are badly denuded.

hmmm... so hard cash immediately was preferable over enriching their soils to have higher crop production. I would think that the added value to be made on crops (when using fertilizer) would be greater, than the added value made on selling fertilizer on the world market.

Unless of course they had a comparative advantage with severely discounted gas. And a lack of interest in improving Ukraine.

 

[WAB]

Harkov not Harlow, dang spellcheck.

Dog gone it, I’m losing it! The northern ag area in China I am trying to reference is the area around Haerbin. The area looks remarkably like Iowa. The farms are enormous and settled communally with military families to guard against Russian incursion. Their Ag practices and capabilities in this area and Shenzen would be directly applicable to Ukraine.

 

[steve white]

Perhaps not the primary driver, but I’m certain that it is a consideration. The last time I checked, almost all of the domestically produced nitrogen fertilizer (natural gas derived) was exported. Ukraine is desperately under fertilized and severely lacking in organic matter.

"Ukraine is...severely lacking in organic matter"...so, are they not plowing under all those Russian soldiers and mercenaries then? (I can be tacky, I know)

 

[Red Leg]

I don't quite follow you in your assessment of Russia still being an 18th century empire, searching a circle of vassal states around it.

In my encounters with Eastern European and Russian peoples, when they do express themselves clearly, they tend to mean exactly what they say. Putin for years stated: no further NATO expansion towards the east. Russian access to the Black Sea through the Sevastopol maritime base needs to be guaranteed.

It has all boomeranged in a spectacular fashion for them for sure.

I remain convinced that the West should rather seek an acceptable compromise agreement between parties, than letting this conflict run for longer. Sure Russia will weaken further, but is that truly in the West's interest? I'd rather have the Russia from 5 years ago, still incapable of confronting NATO, but at least giving China pause when they will focus their attention towards Siberia. In the mean time an entire country and an entire generation of Ukrainians gets thrown into the grinder.

There is no additional positive position to gain from having this conflict run any longer than it already has.

Unfortunately for Russia, and those in the West who seem to know what is best for Ukraine, the Ukrainian people have a voice in their fate - to date, a very strong one. It is useful to remember that the only thing the US offered Zelensky at the start of the actual invasion was a flight out.

He and his people realize as well as anyone on this side of the Oder that this war will end in a negotiation. Ukraine is fighting for a set of conditions where Russia desperately needs those negotiations. That could happen as early as this summer or as late as never. But I am fairly confident that attempting to force Ukraine into an unfavorable negotiated settlement will be an act of total frustration - regardless what NATO may threaten with respect to arms deliveries or economic support. I also suspect that Ukraine's immediate neighbors in the Balkans would be equally resistant. The Poles in particular are capable of defining their national interests as finely as anyone in Berlin or elsewhere in Europe - particularly with respect to Russia.

Finally, the Russia of five years ago already no longer exists. It never will exist again in exactly the same way, and neither will Europe's relationship with that enigma. The sooner Europe grasps that new reality the better.

Russia will be a generation rebuilding their military much less its economy. I can be as suitably sophisticated in my international relations thinking as anyone, but the only person to blame for this is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

Finally, one of those data points that says so much.

From Hibernation to Humiliation? Russia Brings T-54 Tanks Out of Retirement

The CIT team has obtained photographs of a train transporting military vehicles from Russia’s Far East. We identified the vehicles...

notes.citeam.org

 

[WAB]

hmmm... so hard cash immediately was preferable over enriching their soils to have higher crop production. I would think that the added value to be made on crops (when using fertilizer) would be greater, than the added value made on selling fertilizer on the world market.

Unless of course they had a comparative advantage with severely discounted gas. And a lack of interest in improving Ukraine.

I can’t tell you the motives, I’m merely telling you what I saw.

 

[Newboomer]

And "wondering" out loud, what has Putin promised Xi for his support of the war on Russia's side? Putin's estimated worth is some $200 BILLION. His henchmen and oligarchs probably have wealth approaching some of that. Other than Putin's failed wet dream of reestablishing some remnants of the USSR, what does Xi have to gain by aligning himself with a failed Russia and a War Criminal in Putin? Maybe Xi is "playing" Putin, just as both of them have been playing our imbecile Brandon and the feckless leaders of European countries for the last several years?

China is going to make Russia a vassal state and exploit it's natural resources and technology. I wonder if Putin realizes this or he knows his days are numbered and doesn't care what happens to Russia after he's gone.

 

[Ray B]

We aren't dealing with communists in Russia. The current government - the way it functions, its relationship to the people, and the greed of the leading "families" - has far more in common with the mafia than some political dogma motivated movement.

As noted, much like the families that run the Democrat party.

 

[Red Leg]

As noted, much like the families that run the Democrat party.

That Bush crowd was pretty influential for a few decades as well.

 

[Hunter4752001]

The video of the T54/55s on the train is now a some days old. At the time the train was leaving the Russian Far East. It's unlikely the T554/55s would add any capability to Russian forces in the Ukraine where much more modern tanks have been decimated. However, they would be a significant force multiplier in Moscow and St Petersburg against lightly armed civilians when the Russian State begins to collapse and the various faction try to fight it out..

 

[1dirthawker]

View attachment 525056

yeah,

like he could juggle!

 

[spike.t]

Unbelievable.....

New climate paper calls for charging big US oil firms with homicide

Authors of paper accepted for publication in Harvard Environmental Law Review argue firms are ‘killing members of the public at an accelerating rate’

www.theguardian.com

 

[PARA45]

This is messed up.

Air Force confirms 2 more Republican candidates whose records were improperly accessed

The U.S. Air Force on Friday confirmed the names of two more Republican candidates whose military records were improperly accessed by a Democratic Party-aligned research firm.

www.foxnews.com

 

[John Wasmuth]

Unbelievable.....

New climate paper calls for charging big US oil firms with homicide

Authors of paper accepted for publication in Harvard Environmental Law Review argue firms are ‘killing members of the public at an accelerating rate’

www.theguardian.com

I feel much dumber for reading that….. insanity