Hunts which are not guaranteed - Hunts with only a "good chance" of success

Speedie..............am pretty sure someone rubbed wart-hog repellent on my boots....20 years of trying for Jurassic Pork, but hasn't happened yet...hang in there....FWB
 
In my opinion only, if it’s guaranteed it is not a hunt, there are just too many uncontrollable factors. If you take all of those factors out you are shooting an animal in a pen.

From a practical perspective, the odds are in your favor in Africa, even on a true wilderness hunt. I’ve been on 9 safaris, 6 where buffalo were the primary target. I have harvested 5 buffalo. These were all in wild areas. The one hunt I did not harvest a buffalo was my fault and would not happen today.

Alaska is a different story. I moved to Alaska from Wyoming. Game density in Alaska is a fraction of what it is in Wyoming. Add in the terrain, lack of road system and weather and it can be tough. For locals, we make a plan and hunt when the odds are in our favor. Visitors are forced to hunt on a schedule. This makes it tougher.

Fishing is the same. When I lived on the Kenai my boat averaged 4 rod hours per king. Guide boats averaged 16 hours per king. However, I had the luxury of watching the fish count and tide and fishing only when and where the odds were in my favor.
 
If it's 100% guaranteed it's not a true hunt.
 
Why do these types of threads always come back to someone pandering about the "virtue of the experience'? We can agree to disagree but 2 things I would point out (1) this is the opposite of the answer OP was looking for, he is seems to be uninterested in what warms some hearts, from a relationship and travel perspective, formed on the first day of a hunt and (2) I think most hunters would be hyper bummed if they spent $25k on a leopard hunt and did not have an opportunity at a cat. If killing something wasn't massively additive to the experience we we would all be doing more photo safaris and not wasting $ on inconsequential things like guns and ammo.
I agree that the question was not about the feelings/emotions of hunting. For a percentage based answer, @Hank2211 is right on track with his answer. I also agree that $25k for a hunt and not connecting would be a bummer. But, I think most here agree that the trophy is not the defining factor of a good hunt. The trophy is the icing on the cake. All the rest of the ingredients, when well put together, make the hunt worth the risk of not connecting.
This perspective comes from a guy with nothing on the walls in his house. (But the garage has euro mounts.) Hunters pick a hard hunt knowing it might take multiple tries.
 
In my very limited experience (a single 2-week trip) I saw several hunters go home without a warthog, but for many of them the warthog was kind of a throwaway add-on to their package. I got my warthog on my very last day after spending the last few days of my hunt focused only on getting a pig. Most of the warthogs we saw over the two weeks were just tails headed quickly in another direction or beautiful big boars standing in full view by the roadside on the evening drive back to camp.

I could not connect with a Springbok to save my life. They seemed to be everywhere, but I only got one real decent stalk on one and he took off before I was comfortable with the shot. Everyone in camp seemed to have an animal that they just couldn't get, even when the success rate on that species was close to 100% collectively.

Bow hunters also seemed to have difficulty getting everything they were after. I would think that a bow hunt lessens the chance of getting a nearly guaranteed rifle species to something <100%, and in many cases much less than that.
 
Myself being an OP, I can say so far, @Hank2211, is right on the subject.
Why I have started this subject?

On my self, I am very much divided on this topic.
I will give both approaches from personal perspective.

For example, when I hunt locally at my hunting grounds at home, I am happy just to
A) be in the field, and
B) just to see the animals.
Connecting is less important. Practically insignificant.

The hunting for me, is almost 12 months per year, huntable species are each in different season during the year, but there is something to hunt every month fro january till december.

I can drive to hunting grounds, in 20 minutes from my home - where I hunt for membership fee only, or few hours away by car if I go elswehere, on differen arrangemnt.
Yearround.
And bottom line, I HAVE TIME, to repeat tomorrow, and go again (as long as work schedule allows)

In Africa, we hunt on time we buy.
The time in Africa, looks like passing slow, and everyday in the field, I have this false feeling that I have all the time in the World, but in fact, hunt is for one week only, perhaps two weeeks, and for some 4 weeks maybe. Speaking from perspective of international client.

And on this I am yet not certain, how much I would gladly spend, for not connecting with specific animal?

And then try again, doubling the investment?

For average PG hunts, I dont see much issue, because if there is no oryx, there will be blesbok. If not connecting with all 5 animals on package, I can still connect to maybe three on the list, or add one or two extra. In any case, will be happy either way.
So far, in two hunts, I wanted to get jackal, and baboon, but every day there was a priority for somthing else, once the priorities were completed, jackals and baboons were not showing up... ehh... (i keep them in mind for future hunts, they are climbing fast on priority list)

But focusing on one animal - and in some hunts we focus on one animal - that one probably will be more expensive then other, and will require to repeat the process, when not connecting, doubling the price. Leopard is nice example

I dont know how would I feel?

Thus the question: Lets see which animals are most challenging, and not certain?
How woudl you feel if not getting it?

I also think that this dilemma - which deeply gets to subject of personal ethics - gets to most of true hunters on occasion, from time to time.

I cannot think of better description, then the one I found in green hills of africa.. Hemingway describes it as .. "not pleasent":

Now it is pleasant to hunt something that you want very much over a long period of time, being outwitted, out-maneuvered, and failing at the end of each day, but having the hunt and knowing every time you are out that, sooner or later, your luck will change and that you will get the chance that you are seeking. But it is not pleasant to have a time limit by which you must get your kudu or perhaps never get it, nor even see one. It is not the way hunting should be.”

gents, please keep on, with your input, much appreciated.
 
This is a very good question specifically when referring to hunting in Africa. In order to be consistently successful most outfitters have several areas where they have differing levels of success on different species. Clients have travelled far and if there’s a high expectation of success you want to maximize their chances of success. The same species may occur on all the areas the outfitter hunts but there’s normally a “go to” area for a specific species whether it has to do with the time of year, type of terrain, or ability of the hunter etc. When it comes to the top 2/3 animals on a clients wishlist, he’ll plan the hunt around getting the best success on those animals. Time and traveling constraints then can make the hunting of certain secondary species more challenging. I’d go as far as to say that apart from leopard and a few other nocturnal animals, success on a clients main species, provided due planning is done, is around 90%. For me personally, a good cape kudu is always challenging. They’re just smart, the East Cape terrain can be challenging and you need to know your areas and have faith and patience. You can guide 20 kudu bulls in a year and still not know for sure how you’re going to guide your next client to a successful hunt. There’s seldom an easy kudu hunt. It may appear easy sometimes but there’s normally a lot of experience/ pre scouting that puts you in that position. I know local SA hunters who can hunt for years without shooting a quality trophy bull. Bushpig are tough and require good pre baiting to be successful. Caracal, Common duiker, Klipspringer and Vaal Rhebuck can be tough depending on the accessibility of the terrain. In low density areas, bushbuck can be tough as well. Easier in the more populated coastal areas.
 
There are NO guarantees in life (only occasionally written ones!) Put in your time to research species, areas, PHs/Outfitters, then prepare yourself and your equipment-to stack the odds in your favor. At least, in Africa, you do NOT pay for what you don't kill (only for your meals/lodging and PH/vehicle expenses.) 'Have been to Africa 6x and, to use a double-negative, never did I not have at least an opportunity on the species I was hunting on each trip. (In most such cases, we might have encountered a 60" Kudu, but weren't able to capitalize on the opportunity, 'so had to settle for a 54" later on in the trip. Getting a good dagga-boy Buff took a week of long walks, looking over herd after herd, and we scored two nice ones on the last day-one in the last 15 minutes of sunlight!) Such is typical, but I've had 100% shot opportunities on those species I was after, every single time, and for that the PH/Safari Operator selection is critical! There are different geographical regions better suited for certain free-range species. Read up or get acquainted with high fences!
 
As one wiseman coined the phrase: "It's why they call it Hunting, not Shooting!"
 
At least, in Africa, you do NOT pay for what you don't kill (only for your meals/lodging and PH/vehicle expenses.)
You haven’t hunted Ethiopia!
 
A friend of mine spent over two months in a Leopard blind (multiple trips) before he got his Leopard. Another friend got his Leopard and a Lion (all free range) on one trip just a few days apart.

Luck has a lot to do with it.
 
In regards to Africa, I would think Leopard, Bingo, LDE and a certain weight elephant, ie 60lbs ect ect.
North America I'm going with Coastal browns, Sheep and Goat.
 
Apologies to all but I only read the OP. This is my take on it. I really look at it from the other direction. If it IS advertised or insinuated as being guaranteed... that is when I would get nervous and either ask some serious questions or just run! Obviously some hunts are higher or lower percentage but yikes.... guaranteed?
 
Elephant, leopard, definitely not guaranteed.
hyena during the day.
bushpig
cerval, genet, civet, bushcat
porcupine
honey badger
jackal

And then for “normal” stuff, I’ve been beaten by eland, klippy, and grysbok multiple times.

You have to pay extra to hunt places without guarantee..marinate on that.
 
Apologies to all but I only read the OP. This is my take on it. I really look at it from the other direction. If it IS advertised or insinuated as being guaranteed... that is when I would get nervous and either ask some serious questions or just run! Obviously some hunts are higher or lower percentage but yikes.... guaranteed?
Some outfitters, especially in the more expensive countries where you are hunting certain game, will guarantee a "shop opportunity." If you don't get a shot opportunity on the animal you are chasing, you can return to hunt at no extra charge, except for any government charges.

Note that in Ethiopia, you pay the trophy fee in advance (I believe it's now $15,000 for mountain nyala) and if you don't get one, there is no refund. So while you might get to go back, you would have to pay that trophy fee again, in advance again.

Apart from these sorts of guarantees, I think that most game ranches in South Africa could give you a form of "guarantee" in the sense that if you were to ask, for example, what their success rate is on zebra, it would most likely be in the 98%+ range (at least for anyone who can shoot straight). So while it's not a formal guarantee, it's pretty close to one.

So without trying to hijack the OPs thread, what sort of success rate - if any - do you think amounts to a guarantee?
 
Gents, thank you for your knowledgeable answers.
Let me make an intermediate recap, of what has been said so far.

Below list is in no specific order, but leopard seems most frequently mentioned:

- leopard,
- lord derby eland,
- savanna elephant specific size of tusk,
- buffalo specific size or type of horn,
- forest sitatunga (not to be confused with other one)
- Forest animals: dwarf forest buffalo, forest elephant, bongo
- Caracal,
- bush pig,
- common duiker,
- vaal rhebok
- Mountain nyala
- may I add cheetah (gepard) to this list? Cheetah is very rarely seen even on this forum.

What other animals you would could call a prey of opportunity, which cannot be planned in advance?
(this just might be good thing to know, If I get a chance by luck in my next hunt - not to hesitate taking a shot)
 
Part of success is having a good outfitter that has hunted leopard many times on different properties and different areas. The outfitter’s knowledge and skill leads to success. Going with the right outfitter that has been there and done that is a big part of success plan for these specialty hunts. Some countries are more flexible in their hunting methods: using dogs vs blind hunting. In some countries like Namibia you are only allowed to lawfully hunt during daylight. Dark moon vs full moon can have an effect. Rain vs sunny days. Drought where water is concentrated vs rainy season where water is everywhere. Hunting leopard when there is a lot of prey available like young animals can be frustrating too because there are lots of easy meals available.
 
Hyena for me. Over multiple trips I have wanted one, but it was not a priority.
 
I know of two good outfitter who will guarantee their cougar and bear hunts with hounds.
 

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