@Red Leg @mdwest and others with military backgrounds, please review this report if you wouldn't mind? I'd like to hear your perspective on this shocking claim in the press today regarding China's capabilities to retake Taiwan and sink our carrier groups.
Beijing’s hypersonic missiles ‘could sink US aircraft carriers within minutes’
www.telegraph.co.uk
I am FAR from a China or even a PACOM expert.. I honestly dont have a whole lot of experience in dealing with "near peer" threats either (from either a planning or operational perspective).. most of my knowledge base and experience is in SOLIC (special operations low intensity conflict), and most of my defense industry experience is tied to Security Sector Reform (SSR), and DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration)... basically activities that happen post conflict.. most of that is in the middle east, SW asia (for obvious reasons) Africa, and Latin America..
Ive done a little work in Korea and Japan (PACOM countries), and have spent some time in China years ago.. but Ive honestly spent very little time studying their military capabilities/strengths/weaknesses..
There are couple of things that stick out to me in the telegraph article though....
It is absolutely true that Chinas military is huge.. they have a lot of everything... and they have been for the last several years filling gaps in things they traditionally have not possessed in their militaries (like aircraft carriers).. and.. their manufacturing capability is enormous.. they can build ships, planes, artillery, etc.. MUCH faster than we can...
but.. they have some very serious limitations.. and some very serious challenges/problems as well..
the quality of much of their military "stuff" is not unlike other chinese stuff... they have high failure rates, substantial numbers of vehicles, aircraft, ships, etc that stay dead lined because they break down / fall apart A LOT.. and.. while for example the chinese do have a 5th generation fighter (the J-20), it is lightyears behind the US 5th generation fighters (F22, F35).. it will indeed take A LOT of J-20's to take on and have a chance in hell against our most modern jets..
They do have a lot of hypersonic missiles.. but all 600 of them are not the same make/model.. and reports Ive read show many/most to be unreliable..
Then you have a matter of training... it takes A LOT of money and A LOT of time and A LOT of resources to maintain a fighting force of 3M personnel (how many people are in their active and reserve forces).. and they lack the money, time, and resources to do it to the same standard as the US...
While the sheer numbers of the Chinese army for example would create serious problems in a large scale conventional conflict.. the reality is youre talking about sending a really good high school baseball team to take on the NY Yankees (well... 20 HS teams.. all playing at once lol).. its going to take several divisions of chinese armor and infantry to take on a single division of US armor or infantry..
and then you have Chinas very strict, centralized command system (much like Russias) vs the US's decentralized system...
we've all seen how the overwhelming number of Russians have done against the much smaller Ukrainian fighting force over the last few years.. centralized systems arent very effective on the modern battlefield (I dont know that theyve ever been as effective as you'd want them to be).. but in a communist state, its really the only option youve got.. you cant go letting young NCOs and Officers make decisions.. that might lead to free thinking and free will in other areas of life, etc..
Lastly, and possibly the biggest and most important difference... the US is extremely battle hardened right now... we just came out of a 20 year war.. our forces are extremely experienced.. our leaders have led in combat for most of their careers... the chinese have participated in a few skirmishes here and there.. but really havent been battle tested on a large scale since Vietnam...
Again.. I am NOT an expert on all things China.. and I would concede that China would be a hell of a tiger to grab by the tail.. it certainly wouldnt be a walk in the park...
but.. Im equally confident the Chinese have no desire to grab the eagle by its wings either.. even if they won, they'd lose... their economy would get hammered.. their military would get decimated.. and they'd then be vulnerable to 2nd tier threats that they share borders with that dont particularly like them..
as an afterthought.. another HUGE challenge I think China would have is resources.. wheres all the fuel going to come from to fight the US? how are you going to pay those million reservists youre going to have to call up? how about all of the steel required to build those tanks, planes, etc..
Its one thing to have the manufacturing capability to build lots of stuff quickly.. but.. its quite another thing to be able to feed that manufacturing capability...
having a factory that can pump out a million artillery shells in a week is awesome.. if you have the raw materials to make the shells.. if you dont, its really just a big building that not worth shit during a fight..