The Russian Donbas "summer offensive," intended to keep shills like Tucker Carlson (and perhaps our President) convinced of the inevitability of Russian victory, stalled out after little progress and Ukraine has begun a series of counter attacks which have regained territory and surrounded two groups of Russian infantry. At the same time they are seriously damaging the Russian refined products industry which is causing meaningful hardship outside the Moscow region as people search for gasoline and diesel fuel, paying exorbitant prices when they find it. The regime seems to be doing whatever is necessary to provide supplies to the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas.
To date, US leadership has been unwilling to leverage this Ukrainian success. Indeed, today our administration indicated it would scale back support for nations directly confronted by Russia. Most prominently, that includes the Baltic States which the Russians threatened with MIG-31 aircraft yesterday.
Putin is in a shrinking trap of his own creation. Sadly, rather than strong Western leadership capable of exploiting the situation, Putin would seem to be blessed with allies named Trump and Vance.